Apple Watch's first-weekend sales will be interesting, but ultimately unimportant

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 166
    michael_cmichael_c Posts: 164member
    brlawyer wrote: »
    This article seems like hedging AI against an initial adrenaline rush sale and then ultimate failure in the long term...after all, relying on an iPhone to fully work, having a terrible battery life as well as a bad design are not very positive signs, right?
    Not hedging, but attempting to set expectations to a more realistic level and put things into perspective.

    The Apple watch will be a long term success and the neighsayers who are sincere (and not just paid shills) ignore the potential of the software that will bring additional usefulness to the watch. The importance to Apple's bottom line is not just the revenue brought in by the watch, but should also include the iPhone sales it will drive.

    I find the article's words a bit odd "With less than two weeks left on the calendar before Apple opens preorders...". Sure, 5 days is less than "two weeks", but would expect it to say "less than one week left". Maybe, ... it took a week to write the article ;)
  • Reply 22 of 166
    irnchrizirnchriz Posts: 1,617member
    There is less than a week, till preorders open, I stopped reading after they couldn't even get that right.
  • Reply 23 of 166
    jm6032jm6032 Posts: 147member
    The article does seem like an exercise in lowering expectations. Not unexpected, but interesting nonetheless. 
    Ah, but shall we ponder, for a moment, why a professional investment analyst felt the need to write an article stating the obvious to his professional investment clients?
  • Reply 24 of 166

    The haters have their attack narratives already set:


    1. If it sells well, they will claim "Apple fans will buy anything from Apple"

    2. If it tanks, they will claim "Tim Cook and Jony Ive are failures and Apple is DOOMED"

    3. If it does OK but not great, then goal posts will be moved to fit one of the above narratives

  • Reply 25 of 166
    gtrgtr Posts: 3,231member
    brlawyer wrote: »
    ...after all, relying on an iPhone to fully work, having a terrible battery life as well as a bad design are not very positive signs, right?

    You could say the same about another electronic device that launched with it's own shortcomings such as no copy and paste, 3G connection, App Store and it was a couple of hundred dollars overpriced.

    Yet how is the iPhone going these days?
  • Reply 26 of 166
    slurpyslurpy Posts: 5,384member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by shen View Post





    That is pure comedy... well, not gold. Silver maybe? I love that you post something that is literally the exact opposite of the articles statement as "what it seems to be saying."



    There is probably a lawyer joke about reading comprehension in there somewhere.



    You need to promise you will never stop posting. I only read the comments for your comedy. Please, when the watch is setting sales records over the next year, just keep posting your drivel. Double down on the stupid. Keep up the dumb fight. You guys are part of mine morning reading along with comics like SMBC, and you get me through the day. Never stop...

     

    The best thing about these people is that they never go back and hold themselves accountable for being epically wrong, when when they have thousands upon thousands of posts that predict the future with 100% confidence. When their powers of insight, analysis, and prediction is shown to be a hilarious farce and history spits on their rants, you won't even see a "woops". They will naturally switch gears into bashing the next thing, again with their 100% confidence and predictions of utter failure, as if nothing happened. I can't describe it as anything other than extreme sociopathic behavior. 

     

    If I had a dollar for every claim of "Apple is doing it wrong", which then makes Apple even more insanely successful, I'd own the world. They've gotten exactly where they are being doing EVERYTHING wrong, if you actually go by the internet (and media) reactions to their products and decisions. 

     

    Nevermind the mind-numbing nature of brlawyers' complaints.

     

    1. 18hrs battery life is "terrible"? Sorry, what did people expect with an LED screen?

    2. Reliance on phone: Not a single SANE person on the planet expected the Apple Watch to completely replace the phone. 

    3. "Terrible" design- yeah, the Watch has won several design awards already, was designed by the most well regarded on the planet, but I'll just take the word of a predictable and nasty troll like you about the design's hideousness, based on your incredible credentials and taste. 

     

    So basically, not a single objective, thoughtful, or emperical complaint, beyond "it doesnt run on unicorn tears". Brwlawyer has been spitting bile against the Apple Watch since the second it was unveiled, and he will no doubt continue to do so for many months to come. What a productive hobby. 

  • Reply 27 of 166
    inklinginkling Posts: 772member
    I got a bad feeling about those sales. When the iPhone came out, I'd been spending the previous two years looking for a cell phone that was useful for more than just calls. None were and most were junk. I suspect there were millions like me, hence the success of the iPhone.

    On the other hand, I'm not frustrated with what my watch does and doubt my experience is unique. If anything, the clocks in cell phones have led many to abandon watches altogether.

    I am excited, however, about the potential for some of the ideas that were developed for this watch to be incorporated into the iPhone. Apple could make it smart enough to detect when users look at the screen when a call comes in. If they put the iPhone back down, it sends the call to voice mail. It they raise it to their face, it accepts the call. Call that the "Spatially Aware" feature.

    I also wouldn't mind a banded wrist/ankle device that signals via vibrations in ways like the watch does%u2014but at a far more reasonable price. One of Apple's talking points about it phone is that it signals people without being 'in the face' of those they're with. This iWrist or whatever would do that and do it as a reasonable cost for an iPhone accessory.
  • Reply 28 of 166
    inkling wrote: »
    I got a bad feeling about those sales. When the iPhone came out, I'd been spending the previous two years looking for a cell phone that was useful for more than just calls. None were and most were junk. I suspect there were millions like me, hence the success of the iPhone.

    On the other hand, I'm not frustrated with what my watch does and doubt my experience is unique. If anything, the clocks in cell phones have led many to abandon watches altogether.

    I am excited, however, about the potential for some of the ideas that were developed for this watch to be incorporated into the iPhone. Apple could make it smart enough to detect when users look at the screen when a call comes in. If they put the iPhone back down, it sends the call to voice mail. It they raise it to their face, it accepts the call. Call that the "Spatially Aware" feature.

    I also wouldn't mind a banded wrist/ankle device that signals via vibrations in ways like the watch does%u2014but at a far more reasonable price. One of Apple's talking points about it phone is that it signals people without being 'in the face' of those they're with. This iWrist or whatever would do that and do it as a reasonable cost for an iPhone accessory.

    You're underestimating the importance of convenience and connectedness. We're used to a different level of both in the post-iPhone world.
  • Reply 29 of 166
    robbyxrobbyx Posts: 479member
    ascii wrote: »
    I expect the reception to be only lukewarm. But regardless, as the article says, it was the right move for the long term, because in the long term wearables will take over from pocket phones.

    Wearables are not going to take over. Look at the success of the iPhone 6+. People want bigger screens in their pockets, not a tiny little postage stamp size screen on their wrist. I know the industry is looking for "the next big thing", but wearables are not it. No doubt they'll have a place in the accessory market, but we're not going to be talking into our watches Dick Tracy style.
  • Reply 30 of 166
    brlawyerbrlawyer Posts: 828member
    nolamacguy wrote: »
    Without BF you have nobody to Like your drivel any more. Sad, huh?

    Make a child happy and vote for me, then - or get back when what I just said above becomes reality.
  • Reply 31 of 166
    brlawyerbrlawyer Posts: 828member
    gtr wrote: »
    You could say the same about another electronic device that launched with it's own shortcomings such as no copy and paste, 3G connection, App Store and it was a couple of hundred dollars overpriced.

    Yet how is the iPhone going these days?

    To compare the iPhone's sheer innovative baggage with the me-too appeal of the AWatch is simply ludicrous, to say the least. The former was a TOTAL game changer and market creator from the get-go despite any shortcomings. So much so that one can't even remember how "smartphones" looked like before it.

    The latter is just a tethered thingie with similar UI and features just like any other CURRENT smartphone, surely with the added advantage of Apple's care to detail. But nowhere, I repeat, nowhere near the jaw-dropping effect of the iPhone back then...not to mention SJ's phenomenal RDF, too.

    And please don't misquote me: of course future iterations of the AW will be better; but I am talking about here and now, not in 10 years.
  • Reply 32 of 166
    inklinginkling Posts: 772member
    Quote:


    You're underestimating the importance of convenience and connectedness. We're used to a different level of both in the post-iPhone world.

     



     

    No, my fingers are not only big, they don't seem to conduct that well for even an iPhone. Tapping is iffy enough for me on my iPhone 5 screen. A tiny watch screen would be hopeless. That's why I think making devices tactilely aware and signaling with calibrated vibrations matters more than a watch replacement.

     

    Also, keep in mind that technology matures and stabilizes. The core hardware and UI of cars has changed little from the 1930s. Four wheels, a steering wheel and that sort of thing can't really be improved on. Fads like that for a flying car proved to be just that. They introduced to many complications for the benefits.

  • Reply 33 of 166
    robbyx wrote: »
    Wearables are not going to take over. Look at the success of the iPhone 6+. People want bigger screens in their pockets, not a tiny little postage stamp size screen on their wrist. I know the industry is looking for "the next big thing", but wearables are not it. No doubt they'll have a place in the accessory market, but we're not going to be talking into our watches Dick Tracy style.

    The Watch enables you to leave that massive phone in a bag rather than having to keep pulling it out or keep it on your person.

    Give it time. Wearables are going to be bigger than many expect. Of course they won't be for everyone; a few still buy dumbphones, afterall, and Anderoid users are going to be left in the cold, with options that are the equivalent of a Creative MP3 player.
  • Reply 34 of 166
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Slurpy View Post

     

    The best thing about these clowns is that they never go back and hold themselves accountable for being epically wrong, when when they have thousands upon thousands of posts that predict the future with 100% confidence. When their powers of insight, analysis, and prediction is shown to be a hilarious farce and history spits on their rants, you won't even see a "woops". They will naturally switch gears into bashing the next thing, again with their 100% confidence and predictions of utter failure, as if nothing happened. I can't describe it as anything other than extreme sociopathic behavior. 

     

    If I had a dollar for every claim of "Apple is doing it wrong", which then makes Apple even more insanely successful, I'd own the world. They've gotten exactly where they are being doing EVERYTHING wrong, if you actually go by the internet (and media) reactions to their products and decisions. 




    I got one of my friends IRL to admit he was wrong. He's an iOS hater (your typical gadget geek who buys new hardware every 3-6 months) through and through who predicted The Giant iPod Touch™ would fail to sell at launch. Then it became the fastest selling Apple product of all time (still). He admitted he was wrong, but only because I confronted him face-to-face, and there was no weaseling his way out of facts. Online he wouldn't admit it. The web is a safe haven for irresponsible trolling. I mean, how many of these guys took sog35 up on his bets--where there any takers?

  • Reply 35 of 166
    inkling wrote: »
    No, my fingers are not only big, they don't seem to conduct that well for even an iPhone. Tapping is iffy enough for me on my iPhone 5 screen. A tiny watch screen would be hopeless. That's why I think making devices tactilely aware and signaling with calibrated vibrations matters more than a watch replacement.

    Also, keep in mind that technology matures and stabilizes. The core hardware and UI of cars has changed little from the 1930s. Four wheels, a steering wheel and that sort of thing can't really be improved on. Fads like that for a flying car proved to be just that. They introduced to many complications for the benefits.

    Cars have changed greatly from the 1930's. Your comparson is flawed. If I used it correctly, it actually reinforces my point; the Watch uses silicon chips, digital displays, a battery, flash storage, and your fingers are the primary interface. So the core hardware really hasn't changed from the iPhone, it's just more personal.
  • Reply 36 of 166
    slurpyslurpy Posts: 5,384member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by brlawyer View Post



    To compare the iPhone's sheer innovative baggage with the me-too appeal of the AWatch is simply ludicrous, to say the least. The former was a TOTAL game changer and market creator from the get-go despite any shortcomings. So much so that one can't even remember how "smartphones" looked like before it.

     

     

    Stop using the fucking iPhone as the only benchmark. There was nothing as significant before it, or after. That was a one-time product that replaced so many other things and made the phone a useable pocket computer, and no sane person expects this kind of revolution to repeat itself anytime soon. Nothing that SJ unveiled since 2007 came even close, including the iPad, so stop pretending this is a SJ Apple vs non-SJ Apple kind of thing. You're being intellectually dishonest and lazy by constantly comparing the watch to the iPhone, as if it has to meet or exceed that product, and you know it. It's not positioned to replace the iPhone, nor marketed that way- it's only you that is pretending that the product is something it's not, in order to bash it. Right now, it is an iPhone accessory- the best one anyone can possibly buy. And that has merit. Yet, you compare it to the iPhone as if Apple is marketing it as a replacement, just so you can troll. Maybe judge the product on it's own merits, instead of your bullshit and unreasonable fantasies about what it should be.

     

    Don't like it, don't fucking buy it. If anything, the Apple Watch will INCREASE iPhone sales further, and convince people who may be interested in the Apple Watch but don't use an iPhone (yes, they exist, I know several) to buy one. Your incessant whining and spamming the same shit over and over with no added insight, is just appalling. 

  • Reply 37 of 166
    inkling wrote: »
    I got a bad feeling about those sales. When the iPhone came out, I'd been spending the previous two years looking for a cell phone that was useful for more than just calls. None were and most were junk. I suspect there were millions like me, hence the success of the iPhone.

    On the other hand, I'm not frustrated with what my watch does and doubt my experience is unique. If anything, the clocks in cell phones have led many to abandon watches altogether.

    I am excited, however, about the potential for some of the ideas that were developed for this watch to be incorporated into the iPhone. Apple could make it smart enough to detect when users look at the screen when a call comes in. If they put the iPhone back down, it sends the call to voice mail. It they raise it to their face, it accepts the call. Call that the "Spatially Aware" feature.

    I also wouldn't mind a banded wrist/ankle device that signals via vibrations in ways like the watch does%u2014but at a far more reasonable price. One of Apple's talking points about it phone is that it signals people without being 'in the face' of those they're with. This iWrist or whatever would do that and do it as a reasonable cost for an iPhone accessory.

    Your phone idea has a problem: people with bad eyesight. Sometimes we raise the phone that close trying to read what's on the screen. :lol:

    Continuing on the idea of tech I want to see hit the rest of the product line though, no one seems to be talking about the possibilities of ForceTouch for the iPad. To me, some of the stuff they showed with the new trackpads would be even better on an iPad. And haptic feedback on the Mini would be great.
  • Reply 38 of 166
    aderutteraderutter Posts: 604member
    I didn't want a bigger iPhone but got an iPhone6+ and love it.
    So yes people might want bigger screens - but not for everything.
    Bigger screens mean taking the device in and out of a pocket is more of a drag.
    So I'll be happy to use a smaller screen device like the Watch for certain things - I think the Watch and iPhone together are going to give me the best of both worlds.
    Plus of course all the new functions in the Watch too :) I can't wait to get my SS Watch with link bracelet and sport band :)
  • Reply 39 of 166
    tmaytmay Posts: 6,340member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Inkling View Post



    I got a bad feeling about those sales. When the iPhone came out, I'd been spending the previous two years looking for a cell phone that was useful for more than just calls. None were and most were junk. I suspect there were millions like me, hence the success of the iPhone.



    On the other hand, I'm not frustrated with what my watch does and doubt my experience is unique. If anything, the clocks in cell phones have led many to abandon watches altogether.



    I am excited, however, about the potential for some of the ideas that were developed for this watch to be incorporated into the iPhone. Apple could make it smart enough to detect when users look at the screen when a call comes in. If they put the iPhone back down, it sends the call to voice mail. It they raise it to their face, it accepts the call. Call that the "Spatially Aware" feature.



    I also wouldn't mind a banded wrist/ankle device that signals via vibrations in ways like the watch does%u2014but at a far more reasonable price. One of Apple's talking points about it phone is that it signals people without being 'in the face' of those they're with. This iWrist or whatever would do that and do it as a reasonable cost for an iPhone accessory.

    Seems to me that my iPhone already signals me; when its in my pocket. I'm getting an Apple Watch so that I don't have to worry about where my iPhone is in my workspace; i will get notification through the watch, check it, and act or not.

     

    That's invaluable, and for an entry price of $400, a great investment in productivity.

  • Reply 40 of 166
    jfc1138jfc1138 Posts: 3,090member
    Getting the iPhone out of people's constant view is a good part of what I see the Apple Watch as being about. And I can see that concept taking time to ramp up.
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