Apple Watch's first-weekend sales will be interesting, but ultimately unimportant

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Comments

  • Reply 41 of 166
    mj webmj web Posts: 918member
    You know what they say about "interesting" and "unimportant"? If you have nothing to say, don't say it! If you want to be a writer, you should re-read your headline and take stock.
  • Reply 42 of 166
    charlitunacharlituna Posts: 7,217member
    With the way they are selling it, the numbers won't be impressive. They are not just discouraging lines and camping they are banning them. At least for the first few weeks. You can not just line up, walk in and buy a watch. You have to reserve one and a time to come in. It's all set up to spread things out over the day cause they are getting bitched at too much about the lines, fights, resellers etc. and you have to have an Apple ID with a limit of one watch at this point. Also to try to slow down resellers.
  • Reply 43 of 166
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by aderutter View Post



    I didn't want a bigger iPhone but got an iPhone6+ and love it.

    So yes people might want bigger screens - but not for everything.

    Bigger screens mean taking the device in and out of a pocket is more of a drag.

    So I'll be happy to use a smaller screen device like the Watch for certain things - I think the Watch and iPhone together are going to give me the best of both worlds.

    Plus of course all the new functions in the Watch too image I can't wait to get my SS Watch with link bracelet and sport band image



    Exactly, me too. I had no intentions of getting a larger phone, I'm not a phone person but I am a tablet and devices person and I use my 6+ for so much more than I ever used a phone previously. It's even taken functionality from my mini away such that my poor mini suffers less attention and I carry it with me far less often. Plus, my Kindle I've not used in months, the 6+ has almost entirely replaced that function. Who'd have thunk? Not me.

     

    The point is, as you say, bigger screens for some things. We're still in the early stages of these devices, learning as we go which functions on which devices and what combinations work best for the devices and the people who use them. A watch shouldn't do everything, to expect that and criticise it (as so many do) is ludicrous. There are, however, so many obvious functions it can take over from our current devices, and less obvious ones we have yet to discover, it's really quite exciting.

     

    For me, I'm a watch wearer, always have been, so the inclusion of other functions on a device that I already use is obviously a bonus for me. I can't wait to see what developers come up with and how users end up using these "wearables," their utility I see increasing over time in very interesting ways. This is just getting started. Fun times ahead for sure.

  • Reply 44 of 166
    emoelleremoeller Posts: 584member
    I didn't think I'd be interested in an Apple Watch. I spent some time watching the videos while waiting for a flight back to the US on Friday and I'm certainly intrigued. Yesterday I browsed the watch sizes, styles, bands and prices and picked out one I liked ( http://www.apple.com/watch/gallery/#apple-watch-stainless-steel-case-milanese-loop ). I then checked the size/weight and ran into the single biggest issue Apple is going to face - the watch is nearly a half inch thick (.41 inches) and weighs 71 g, 2.5 oz (that is .16 lbs!). And that is for the smaller size bezel. For reference an iPhone 5s weighs 112 g (3.95 oz).

    Like many folks I don't wear a watch any more (I carry a smartphone, which I check frequently so why would I?). I can't imagine strapping something this large (I have shirt cuffs that won't accommodate the height) and weight onto my wrist - it is going to look dorky.

    I'll probably go and try one on when they are available in the stores, but as of now it is a generation or two away from being a product I would use today.
  • Reply 45 of 166
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Inkling View Post

     

    No, my fingers are not only big, they don't seem to conduct that well for even an iPhone. Tapping is iffy enough for me on my iPhone 5 screen. A tiny watch screen would be hopeless. That's why I think making devices tactilely aware and signaling with calibrated vibrations matters more than a watch replacement.

     

    Also, keep in mind that technology matures and stabilizes. The core hardware and UI of cars has changed little from the 1930s. Four wheels, a steering wheel and that sort of thing can't really be improved on. Fads like that for a flying car proved to be just that. They introduced to many complications for the benefits.


    Yes, using your fingers would then be an issue. But I think you're underestimating and misunderstanding the role that the crown plays (and will play in the future, with software updates).

     

    You may want to look at the Watch videos that Apple has posted, with many more to come.

     

    Add: I could see a crown-like innovation coming in a future iPhone.

  • Reply 46 of 166
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jfc1138 View Post



    Getting the iPhone out of people's constant view is a good part of what I see the Apple Watch as being about. And I can see that concept taking time to ramp up.

    There's also the side benefit of the reduced risk of dropping the iPhone.

  • Reply 47 of 166
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 20,408member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by EMoeller View Post

    I can't imagine strapping something this large (I have shirt cuffs that won't accommodate the height) and weight onto my wrist - it is going to look dorky.

    Well, I guess then that a lot of Rolex and Omega watches, which are in the same weight and size league, most look 'dorky' too.

  • Reply 48 of 166
    williamlondonwilliamlondon Posts: 1,413member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by EMoeller View Post



    I didn't think I'd be interested in an Apple Watch. I spent some time watching the videos while waiting for a flight back to the US on Friday and I'm certainly intrigued. Yesterday I browsed the watch sizes, styles, bands and prices and picked out one I liked ( http://www.apple.com/watch/gallery/#apple-watch-stainless-steel-case-milanese-loop ). I then checked the size/weight and ran into the single biggest issue Apple is going to face - the watch is nearly a half inch thick (.41 inches) and weighs 71 g, 2.5 oz (that is .16 lbs!). And that is for the smaller size bezel. For reference an iPhone 5s weighs 112 g (3.95 oz).



    Like many folks I don't wear a watch any more (I carry a smartphone, which I check frequently so why would I?). I can't imagine strapping something this large (I have shirt cuffs that won't accommodate the height) and weight onto my wrist - it is going to look dorky.



    I'll probably go and try one on when they are available in the stores, but as of now it is a generation or two away from being a product I would use today.



    The size is the one thing that's worried me about this device, but I recently measured the watch I currently wear and the 42mm Apple Watch is only slightly taller but narrower, and the thickness is exactly the same as my current watch. My wrists are quite small and my current watch doesn't look large or bulky on my wrist (I'm always careful about the watches I choose because of my small wrists) so I'm hopeful about how the Apple Watch will look on my wrist.

     

    As for what this watch will look like in the future, I'm seriously doubting we'll see grand changes to the form for at least several iterations. They're charging so much money for the top end watch (and good money for the others), there's no way they'll come out with a new version next year that makes the current one look ancient and bulky, it'd piss people off. So what I think is that the current form is here to stay for at least a few years. Instead, any changes will be inside the form: faster processor, longer battery life, some other new functionality.

     

    No idea whether this is possible, but one could imagine a "swap out" deal next year where you can buy new internals for the latest and greatest and pop it in your existing "case" in order to preserve your investment.

  • Reply 49 of 166
    docno42docno42 Posts: 3,759member
    robbyx wrote: »
    Wearables are not going to take over. Look at the success of the iPhone 6+. People want bigger screens in their pockets, not a tiny little postage stamp size screen on their wrist. I know the industry is looking for "the next big thing", but wearables are not it.

    LOL - talk about completely missing the point. Since the watch is an accessory the size of the screen in your pocket has no relationship.

    And wearables don't have to "take over" to be wildly successful. They augment sales, enhance. Just like iPhones bolstered Mac sales, I think within a generation or two the watch will do the same for the iPhone. Funny where you see a bleak future I see an enhanced one. I'm pretty confident on which of us will be more right.
  • Reply 50 of 166
    mac_128mac_128 Posts: 3,454member
    robbyx wrote: »
    Wearables are not going to take over. Look at the success of the iPhone 6+. People want bigger screens in their pockets, not a tiny little postage stamp size screen on their wrist. I know the industry is looking for "the next big thing", but wearables are not it. No doubt they'll have a place in the accessory market, but we're not going to be talking into our watches Dick Tracy style.
    The Watch enables you to leave that massive phone in a bag rather than having to keep pulling it out or keep it on your person.

    Give it time. Wearables are going to be bigger than many expect. Of course they won't be for everyone; a few still buy dumbphones, afterall, and Anderoid users are going to be left in the cold, with options that are the equivalent of a Creative MP3 player.
    The watch does indeed allow one to leave the "iPhablet" in a pocket or bag. And that's one of the brilliant aspects of the timing of the ?Watch release, as I've said all along.

    But, i agree with Robbyx that the ?Watch will not soon replace the iPhone, especially with the trend toward bigger phones -- cellular phone on the wrist maybe, but not for the main reason that people want the iPhablet: to browse the Internet and manage e-mail. Then There's texting -- kids text non-stop. Many adults do to. And the ?Watch is most definitely not the best choice for texting, so for them, the phones likely going to spend more time in their hands than put away.

    In order for the ?Watch to replace the iPhone completely, Siri will have to improve dramatically. I use Siri to dictate on my iPhone all the time, but It's rare that I don't have to manually edit a message before I send it -- is there even any mechanism to edit text on the watch? Siri will have to be as good as the OS AI on the movie HER. And even then, it's only appropriate for situations where one can speak out loud. It will probably also need some kind of projection system to display information in a large enough format to be practical. I can imagine some kind of intermediary step where the watch and iPhone swap functions, with the iPhone being a dumb display to receive video from the watch. But that's years away in terms of squeezing everything an iPhone can currently do into a wristwatch sized device.

    I do agree with you however, that wearables are going to be massive. How can they not be? And Apple is on the cutting edge of that change, and are therefore in the best position to adapt to the inevitable changes as consumers figure out how they wll actually use them. But they are going to be limited to accessories for some time to come, not the primary device.
  • Reply 51 of 166
    satchmosatchmo Posts: 2,699member

    I wonder if strategically, Apple will 'run out' of stock, to give the perception that demand is greater than it really is.

  • Reply 52 of 166
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 20,408member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by satchmo View Post

     

    I wonder if strategically, Apple will 'run out' of stock, to give the perception that demand is greater than it really is.


    Yeah, like they've done every time, as for example with the iPhone 6/6+ when they hid their ~60M handsets for the first month after its introduction in a warehouse in Cupertino.?

  • Reply 53 of 166
    mac_128mac_128 Posts: 3,454member
    charlituna wrote: »
    With the way they are selling it, the numbers won't be impressive. They are not just discouraging lines and camping they are banning them. At least for the first few weeks. You can not just line up, walk in and buy a watch. You have to reserve one and a time to come in. It's all set up to spread things out over the day cause they are getting bitched at too much about the lines, fights, resellers etc. and you have to have an Apple ID with a limit of one watch at this point. Also to try to slow down resellers.
    Where are you getting this? Apple even reportedly has a policy on how to deal with walk-in customers who don't have an appointment. If Apple has stock in the stores, outside of the reserved watches, and they almost certainly will, then there will be lines to buy them. The only difference is, to try one on, you'll have to meet with a sales rep, just like you would in any jewelry store. And you can bet Apple will have tons of extra staff on for the launch date to handle the crush of early adopters who did not make a reservation or pre-order.
  • Reply 54 of 166
    docno42docno42 Posts: 3,759member
    mac_128 wrote: »
    In order for the ?Watch to replace the iPhone completely, Siri will have to improve dramatically.

    Putting the cart way before the horse, are we?

    Before ANYONE can make a watch that will replace a phone, there has to be some quantum leap in battery technology.

    Period.

    Having a viable power source that is small enough is going to be a stumbling block to any stand-alone watch that can also act as a phone. I was thinking that someone may come up with technology to put the battery in a thick band to get some cubic millimeters of battery space - but I suspect there isn't battery tech that's flexible and resilient enough to fill that role yet. Until something like that happens watches will remain accessories.
  • Reply 55 of 166
    docno42docno42 Posts: 3,759member
    satchmo wrote: »
    I wonder if strategically, Apple will 'run out' of stock, to give the perception that demand is greater than it really is.

    lol - yes, because it's always better to bank on a possible future sale vs. a confirmed sale today.

    That people still float ideas like this without the least indication of any shame or embarrassment never ceases to amaze me….
  • Reply 56 of 166
    tmaytmay Posts: 6,453member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by satchmo View Post

     

    I wonder if strategically, Apple will 'run out' of stock, to give the perception that demand is greater than it really is.


    Apple puts all its marketing effort upfront to create sales buzz, and then wants word of mouth of users and reviewers to drive further sales. Artificially restraining initial sales would be counterproductive, and I haven't seen any example of Apple doing that in the past.

     

    In the case of the Apple Watch, only online preorders will allow buyers access without the retail experience that Apple has planned. This is by design so that Apple Watch buyers leave the store with the watch that most matches there needs, budget, and style desires.

  • Reply 57 of 166
    croprcropr Posts: 1,140member

    As long as Apple Watch doesn't bring added value to a iPhone, but just increased convenience, the sales of Apple Watch will be limited to die hard fans or to people who have burning cash in their hands.

     

    One cannot convince the man in a street to pay $400 to see his notifications 3 tenths of second faster on the Watch than on his iPhone, especially if one has become of certain age so the tiny characters on a Watch are too difficult to read without his reading glasses

  • Reply 58 of 166
    cropr wrote: »
    As long as Apple Watch doesn't bring added value to a iPhone, but just increased convenience, the sales of Apple Watch will be limited to die hard fans or to people who have burning cash in their hands.

    One cannot convince the man in a street to pay $400 to see his notifications 3 tenths of second faster on the Watch than on his iPhone, especially if one has become of certain age so the tiny characters on a Watch are too difficult to read without his reading glasses

    Because this is clearly just a notifications device. :no:
  • Reply 59 of 166
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 20,408member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by cropr View Post

     

    One cannot convince the man in a street to pay $400 to see his notifications 3 tenths of second faster on the Watch than on his iPhone, especially if one has become of certain age so the tiny characters on a Watch are too difficult to read without his reading glasses


    People in the "having difficulty reading without reading glasses" category are not the age segment where most sales of most consumer products -- especially high value consumer products -- happen. Except when it comes to sales of pharmaceuticals or more generally, health care-related products.

     

    Oh, wait....

  • Reply 60 of 166
    knowitallknowitall Posts: 1,648member
    I don't agree, when AWatch is a resounding success selling in its first few days it will be very successful.
    When it isn't it might still be successful in the long run, but then it's far from certain.

    As a side note: I just got my new bank card, it has (to my surprise) nfc in it and I can use it right away to do wireless payments on any terminal that supports nfc. Now this means that I can pay with one swipe of my wallet, and that's within the second. That's extremely convenient and cannot be improved on, the card is also extremely thin and light, compared to an iPhone, and it doesn't need a charge either. Some people here denied the possibility that banks in Europe would (want to) counter APay in advance, but it's clear now they did.
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