The Moto360 is monsterously clownish in TODAY's culture. What do you think people would have said if the Samsung Note came out in 2007? People would have called it monsterously clownish. But things change. It will take several years but I would not be surprised if in 5 years wrist mounted devices will be much bigger than 2 inches.
It took 5 years for the general public to accept a 5+ inch phone. It may take just as long for a 'large' watch to be socially acceptable. Apple is doing it right by releasing a relatively small watch so it is socially acceptable. Once the market understands the value of such a device they will be more willing to wear larger versions.
Now you are going down the right path. Yes hologram is a possibility, along with paper thin screens that can fold. Display technology is constantly evolving. Who knows what we will see in 10 years. And that's my point about having vision. Its seems that you are focused on what the Watch will be in the next 3 years. I'm looking at what the Watch will be in 10 years.
I think you are solving for the wrong parameter.
It may be that flexible AMOLED display will allow a band of information to be displayed on the wrist, but it doesn't change the paradigm that Apple is establishing for 5 to 10 second interactions. What exactly is a larger and/or wider watch going to be able to do with that natural constraint, and I say natural, as I assume that Apple spent thousands of man-hours determining what was the optimum interaction time for the wrist wearable. The practical adaptation of this is that the current Apple Watch is pretty thick, so I assume that the two case sizes we have today are pretty close to optimum, with a future driven by thinner, not bigger.
This is the watch paradigm, but I'm sure that Android Wear will be a testing ground for monstrous smart watch implementations, but I would hope that they get the same bum's rush as Glassholes did.
It may be that 10 years from now there will be a wearable that is larger, but it won't be a watch, it will be something other than a watch and probably transparent during inactivity.
The interest in Apple Watch might be fairly gaged on the weekend of April 10, based on in-store activity, but we won't have any good reason to guess at how many were preordered until two weeks later. Apple is also discouraging walk-in buyers on April 24, which should mitigate the "camp out" affect.
Where are you getting this?
First, if Apple's inventory is sold out in the first 24 hours of pre-orders, then I think everyone will know pretty quick, and either analysts or Apple will tell us how many that comprises long before the watches arrive in stores -- and even if they sell-out pre-orders, there will be watches for sale on release day. Second, what is Apple doing to discourage walk-in buyers? The last I read they allegedly have a plan to accommodate them, knowing full well they will be there. While they are encouraging reservations, I don't see how this discourages "camping out" on April 24. If anything, sold-out pre-orders will drive people who don't need to actually see the physical watch directly to the stores which will be the only source of unclaimed ?Watches. I believe a read that Apple will have two queues, one for reservations, and one for immediate purchase. People waiting for April 24 to make a reservation to go into an Apple Store and see the watch before they purchase may find themselves with very limited selection to chose from, if any. If some of the very large sales predictions pan out, then I fully expect the ?Watch launch to be just as much of a circus as any other Apple product.
It may be that flexible AMOLED display will allow a band of information to be displayed on the wrist, but it doesn't change the paradigm that Apple is establishing for 5 to 10 second interactions. What exactly is a larger and/or wider watch going to be able to do with that natural constraint, and I say natural, as I assume that Apple spent thousands of man-hours determining what was the optimum interaction time for the wrist wearable. The practical adaptation of this is that the current Apple Watch is pretty thick, so I assume that the two case sizes we have today are pretty close to optimum, with a future driven by thinner, not bigger.
This is the watch paradigm, but I'm sure that Android Wear will be a testing ground for monstrous smart watch implementations, but I would hope that they get the same bum's rush as Glassholes did.
It may be that 10 years from now there will be a wearable that is larger, but it won't be a watch, it will be something other than a watch and probably transparent during inactivity.
Exactly. If we're on this forum, we're all nerdy enough to imagine all kinds of cool future gadgets. But today, and the foreseeable future, the Apple Watch is a watch. Apple went to great lengths to fit all of that technology into a tiny, stylish enclosure. I'm not particularly interested in it, but I wildly admire the design and technological innovation. They aren't doing all that hard work to later slap an iphone 6+ across our forearms.
Exactly. If we're on this forum, we're all nerdy enough to imagine all kinds of cool future gadgets. But today, and the foreseeable future, the Apple Watch is a watch. Apple went to great lengths to fit all of that technology into a tiny, stylish enclosure. I'm not particularly interested in it, but I wildly admire the design and technological innovation. They aren't doing all that hard work to later slap an iphone 6+ on our wrists.
I think SOG is in the same trap as the Glassholes; just because you can do it, doesn't mean you should do it.
It's glances that will define wearables, not long tasks, which will be deemed socially unacceptable. That's what Apple figured out, and its an improvement over the constant smartphone interaction wrt notifications. I'm looking forward to it, and waiting to preorder.
I think SOG is in the same trap as the Glassholes; just because you can do it, doesn't mean you should do it.
He doesn't even make sense though. Everyone who doesn't agree with him has "no vision" and then he goes on to imagine some pretty silly stuff that Apple could do today if they wanted to. If they wanted a big curved screen, an iPhone on your forearm, with better battery life, gps, and all, they could do that. But they've clearly chosen not to. Glances have nothing to do with battery life, as he ridiculously suggests. They are part of Apple's overall product vision, not a solution to a nonexistent problem.
Wha?? At 1.56 inches across it's only slightly wider than the smallest Apple Watch and narrower than the larger one.
If (And I personally think when) Apple releases a round smartwatch version in the next gen I'll be looking forward to your comments.
Haha, exactly. I don't understand why anyone would compare the Moto360 to the ?Watch. When Apple does a round watch option (and I'm betting as early as next Spring), it will be crafted to compete with the finest round Swiss watches available today, and it will look perfectly at home with the customized watch OS that takes advantage of the areas surrounding the central square text display area. And it will be just as beautiful as the current ?Watch.
The original Mac UI redefined everyone's expectations of personal computing.
The ? Watch UI will change how humans interact with technology well beyond mere wristwatches.
Goodbye dials, buttons and switches - they're going the way of buggy whips and gasoline.
Agreed. And it's already happening. Have you seen the Adorne light switches? Their high end switch is a trackpad. Tap on and off. Slide your finger up and down to control brightness.
First, if Apple's inventory is sold out in the first 24 hours of pre-orders, then I think everyone will know pretty quick, and either analysts or Apple will tell us how many that comprises long before the watches arrive in stores -- and even if they sell-out pre-orders, there will be watches for sale on release day. Second, what is Apple doing to discourage walk-in buyers? The last I read they allegedly have a plan to accommodate them, knowing full well they will be there. While they are encouraging reservations, I don't see how this discourages "camping out" on April 24. If anything, sold-out pre-orders will drive people who don't need to actually see the physical watch directly to the stores which will be the only source of unclaimed ?Watches. I believe a read that Apple will have two queues, one for reservations, and one for immediate purchase. People waiting for April 24 to make a reservation to go into an Apple Store and see the watch before they purchase may find themselves with very limited selection to chose from, if any. If some of the very large sales predictions pan out, then I fully expect the ?Watch launch to be just as much of a circus as any other Apple product.
We won't know much if anything about total sales even if Apple Watch shows up as backordered on the first weekend, because we won't know the size of the prerelease inventory, and especially since it will be spread over so many models. One has to imagine that Apple will use the two week preorder demand to adjust inventory as much as possible. The other wrinkle not present with previous new Apple products is the try-on appointments. This is Apple's recognition that this is a product most people will want to see and feel before buying. In terms of discouraging camping out, you answered your own question. Those who must have their Apple Watch on day one will preorder, sight unseen if necessary. Though some people will no doubt line up at Apple Stores on April 24, the rationale for doing so is even more questionable with Apple Watch than it was with previous Apple products, if for no other reason than they had two weeks before then to try one on and preorder it, no camping out required.
The flexable screen I'm talking about is a screen that is as thin as a paper and can be rolled into a compact size.
Glances is a limitation of the battery life. Why the hell do you think the display shuts off automatically? If you use your watch as a non-glace device it will die in 4 hours.
Again you have no vision. You can only see 5 years ahead of now. I see 10+ years.
The Watch is Apple's first step in wearables. Just as the iPod was Apple first step toward mobile devices. You seriously think the Jobs only had music in mind when he made the iPod? Hell no. But the tech was not ready yet for the iPhone. Same here with wearables.
You are wise and mighty! That is why you spend your days trolling Mac fan sites instead of putting that visionary mind of yours to good use in the industry. Makes perfect sense to me.
Though some people will no doubt line up at Apple Stores on April 24, the rationale for doing so is even more questionable with Apple Watch than it was with previous Apple products, if for no other reason than they had two weeks before then to try one on and preorder it, no camping out required.
Yes I did answer my own question: If pre-orders sell out in the first 24 hours, then the ONLY way to get an ?Watch on April 24th, will be to CAMP OUT thus ensuring you are one of the first customers in line to buy one available only at the store -- whether you've previously made an appointment to try one on or not.
This will absolutely be no different than any iPhone release where pre-orders have been possible. Why would anyone line up outside the Apple Store to buy an iPhone if they could have gotten one on pre-order? Yet every new product launch there they are, despite the well organized and publicized pre-order window. This will be the same.
EDIT: I stand corrected. I had forgotten about this "leak" last week. However, it doesn't change the fact they will allow walk-in demo/fittings for a pre-order, so I fully expect a few lines on the 10th for people who merely want to be one of the first to get their hands on one.
Here's a current example of how GPS would be an important factor to the ?Watch -- the Riptide Search GPS surf watch -- Active GPS surfing provides up to 10 continuous hours. That's waaaay better than the 3 hours of talk time, and the 6 hours of music playback the ?Watch currently offers. The Search also offers up to 6 months operation on a single charge without using GPS, compared to the ?Watches 72 hours? Now that's not an entirely fair comparison since the Search display is B&W LCD, and I don't even think it has a backlight. But the point is, if Apple is selling a device with features capable of draining the battery within 3-6 hours, then GPS, in a real world application that is much less of a drain on battery life, is not a huge leap, nor does it require "massive battery technology revolution, to implement it in the same user optional manner as the other potential power drains.
GPS didn't make it into this iteration, and it may not make it into the next, but Apple will work it in at some point. In the meantime, clever accelerometers, algorithms, and training provide a typical user with pedometer functions detached from the iPhone; good enough. A compass would be more useful initially for runners that train on set courses, creating waypoints at sharp turns.
I use GAIA on my iPhone and it is very useful for off trail use, but I would't see much of its function transferred to the Apple Watch; some would be useful.
Well for me, this particular use of GPS for surfing cannot easily be replaced by other technologies. I can't speak to how a runner might want to use it, or what’s acceptable to one. While I have no way to substantiate this, based on other technologies Apple reportedly left off of the 1st ben watch, my assumption is that the watch at one point had GPS, and it was left out for cost reasons, as power management doesn't seem to be a substantial problem considering the Riptide watch offering.
The bigger issue than GPS for me is proper water-resistance. Right now Apple is excluding the entire water sports enthusiast community as well as water-oriented occupations, with the watch's limited water-resistance. So that I see as the first big improvement, before this particularly desirable use of GPS is even possible. But that’s not to say that excluding such a demographic is going to necessarily impact their sales — the stock broker who surfs (and there are lot of them in LA), will just as likely buy an ?Watch for use when he gets to the office, and buy a dedicated surf watch too. It’s really only some fitness-only customers whom Apple is excluding (the ones who aren’t particularly interested in notifications), and they don’t seem to be the target market anyway.
Make no mistake about it:
Apple will release a watch with GPS, possibly as early as 2nd Gen.
Apple will release a round watch, possibly as early as 2nd gen.
Apple will release a more water-resistant watch, almost certainly by 2nd gen.
Apple will release a watch with GPS, possibly as early as 2nd Gen.
Apple will release a round watch, possibly as early as 2nd gen.
Apple will release a more water-resistant watch, almost certainly by 2nd gen.
GPS and water proofing are of course natural improvements to this product, even tho id only put it at 50-50 for the next gen. round face will definitely not be seen in 2nd gen, and probably not for many years. Ive said he chose rectangle because the form follows the function of screen use, and we dont use round-screened devices. so for him to reserve course in such a short time spam seems very unlikely to me.
Take my word for it. The entire industry is mobilizing into wearables in the next 10 years. The companies that fail to make investments RIGHT NOW will be left behind like Blackberry.
SOG,
I don't think you are listening.
No, let me rephrase that; you aren't listening or you have poor reading comprehension.
There isn't going to be an Apple Watch morphing into a replacement for the iPhone, There may be another wearable that does what the iPhone does but in a different paradigm, though I'm hard pressed to imagine what that would; perhaps embedded in clothing, a transparent/translucent flexible bracelet, or an eyepiece. I do think Apple will create in the future a fitness band, or even just a band that will be a subset of the Apple Watch, but it won't be called an Apple Watch for obvious reasons.
None of these will replace the Apple Watch or iPhone product lines; they will be additional and niche product lines.
Yes I did answer my own question: If pre-orders sell out in the first 24 hours, then the ONLY way to get an ?Watch on April 24th, will be to CAMP OUT thus ensuring you are one of the first customers in line to buy one available only at the store -- whether you've previously made an appointment to try one on or not.
This will absolutely be no different than any iPhone release where pre-orders have been possible. Why would anyone line up outside the Apple Store to buy an iPhone if they could have gotten one on pre-order? Yet every new product launch there they are, despite the well organized and publicized pre-order window. This will be the same.
Except that Apple has already said that they won't sell watches to walk-ins, at least not initially. All the initial stock is allocated to reservations made online.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac_128
Apple will release a watch with GPS, possibly as early as 2nd Gen.
Apple will release a round watch, possibly as early as 2nd gen.
Apple will release a more water-resistant watch, almost certainly by 2nd gen.
I wouldn't be so sure about the round watch. It's not as if it never occurred to Apple that a watch could be round. Jony Ive is a huge fan of mechanical watches. I think that they made a conscious decision that a square screen is ideal for a wrist-worn wearable device. I think we'll see additional bands, to be sure, perhaps some new colors in the stainless steel line, but that it will always have a rectangular screen.
So you know Apple's product map for the next 10 years now?
I agree it won't be called a Watch but it will evolve from the Watch. Just like how the iPhone evolved from the iPod.
Tech only goes one direction. Forward. Computers are getting close and close to our brain. Wearables is the next step
Do you know it? Are you knowitall now?
Wearable X won't displace the Apple Watch anytime soon, nor will it displace the iPhone/smartwatch anytime soon. These are both familiar UI's, and the iPod still finds sales for children and youth, as doe the iPad Mini, so those will stay around indefinitely.
Whatever the next tech for wearables is, it will have a UI that is not the Apple Watch UI, unless it is a band or bracelet, but I don't think those are the wearables that you are envisioning. Even an eyepiece wearable will have a different UI than the Apple Watch.
Apple isn't going to shoehorn a UI into a product, it will be integrated into it, and that goes for whatever future wearable are added to the mix.
Except that Apple has already said that they won't sell watches to walk-ins, at least not initially. All the initial stock is allocated to reservations made online.
Right. I somehow forgot that. However, since they do take walk-ins for a demo/fitting. So really, the lines will be for April 10th, but not the 24th, for those who want to be among the first to touch an ?Watch for 15 minutes, but didn't manage to get a reservation -- I wonder how many will know they won't be able to walk away with one? But I stand corrected -- the lines will certainly be mitigated for anyone who knows they won't be going home with one. It does raise the question about what exactly Apple will be doing on the supply side -- one has to assume a certain number of aluminum and stainless watches ready and available, with custom runs of specific bands based on the pre-orders. Otherwise, I would think they would be significantly constrained trying to build units during those two weeks for delivery on the 24th. It will be very interesting to see how quickly the pre-sales delivery date slips past the 24th.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KPOM
I wouldn't be so sure about the round watch. It's not as if it never occurred to Apple that a watch could be round. Jony Ive is a huge fan of mechanical watches. I think that they made a conscious decision that a square screen is ideal for a wrist-worn wearable device. I think we'll see additional bands, to be sure, perhaps some new colors in the stainless steel line, but that it will always have a rectangular screen.
The one thing I'm sure of is Apple can be counted on to change it's mind if the mood suits them. While Ive said “When a huge part of the function is lists, a circle doesn’t make any sense” all that can be gleaned from that is that a square watch made the most sense for the first iteration of the product. Because, Ive also said this: "As soon as something is worn, we have expectations of choice," said Ive, before joking that "only in prison" do you see uniformity in what people wear.
Add to that Apple's focus on fashion with this product, and their historical offering of color choices, and finally the current variation of size options across all of their products. Apple customers are used to choice, and here you have Ive telling us, when a customer wears a product they expect choice, and won't likely all be happy wearing the same thing (equating it with prison!). Watch bands and case finishes will only go so far to placate the customer desire for choice and distinction when it comes to jewelry. And that's why I say they will release a round model (along side the square) as early as 2nd gen. Now Apple may decide not to cater to the fashion industry's desire for round watches, but considering there are no drawbacks to displaying a square within a circle when it comes to displaying "lists", I'd be surprised if they didn't. As long as Apple is pushing their watch into jewelry stores to be sold alongside traditional watches, the comparison is always going to be there, along with the fashion element in a consumer's mind.
By the way Ive also said this when discussing how using the Apple Watch differs in the type of interaction when compared to something like the iPhone, noting that a device worn on the wrist is best used for "lightweight interactions" and "casual glancing." So if this is what Ive truly believes, then those "lists" won't be so detailed as to actually require a square display, opening the door for much wider fashion-centric options in future watch designs.
Right. I somehow forgot that. However, since they do take walk-ins for a demo/fitting. So really, the lines will be for April 10th, but not the 24th, for those who want to be among the first to touch an ?Watch for 15 minutes, but didn't manage to get a reservation -- I wonder how many will know they won't be able to walk away with one? But I stand corrected -- the lines will certainly be mitigated for anyone who knows they won't be going home with one. It does raise the question about what exactly Apple will be doing on the supply side -- one has to assume a certain number of aluminum and stainless watches ready and available, with custom runs of specific bands based on the pre-orders. Otherwise, I would think they would be significantly constrained trying to build units during those two weeks for delivery on the 24th. It will be very interesting to see how quickly the pre-sales delivery date slips past the 24th.
The one thing I'm sure of is Apple can be counted on to change it's mind if the mood suits them. While Ive said “When a huge part of the function is lists, a circle doesn’t make any sense” all that can be gleaned from that is that a square watch made the most sense for the first iteration of the product. Because, Ive also said this: "As soon as something is worn, we have expectations of choice," said Ive, before joking that "only in prison" do you see uniformity in what people wear.
Add to that Apple's focus on fashion with this product, and their historical offering of color choices, and finally the current variation of size options across all of their products. Apple customers are used to choice, and here you have Ive telling us, when a customer wears a product they expect choice, and won't likely all be happy wearing the same thing (equating it with prison!). Watch bands and case finishes will only go so far to placate the customer desire for choice and distinction when it comes to jewelry. And that's why I say they will release a round model (along side the square) as early as 2nd gen. Now Apple may decide not to cater to the fashion industry's desire for round watches, but considering there are no drawbacks to displaying a square within a circle when it comes to displaying "lists", I'd be surprised if they didn't. As long as Apple is pushing their watch into jewelry stores to be sold alongside traditional watches, the comparison is always going to be there, along with the fashion element in a consumer's mind.
By the way Ive also said this when discussing how using the Apple Watch differs in the type of interaction when compared to something like the iPhone, noting that a device worn on the wrist is best used for "lightweight interactions" and "casual glancing." So if this is what Ive truly believes, then those "lists" won't be so detailed as to actually require a square display, opening the door for much wider fashion-centric options in future watch designs.
You are constructing the public's desire for a round watch predicated out of your own personal interest in replicating your existing watch worldview. I'm not seeing that at all for the near term, and possibly not for the longer term either. Apple will be more interested in gaining App momentum with developers than diverging design to other than a specific rectangular format.
Other shapes than rectangular may happen, but almost certainly not until the Apple Watch brand is well established and the ecosystem is fully baked. I certainly might be wrong about this, but my perspective most matches Apple's historical evolution of product lines.
Apple's focus on fashion? I'm not seeing it as the primary driver of the Apple Watch design; that would be the UI.
Right. I somehow forgot that. However, since they do take walk-ins for a demo/fitting. So really, the lines will be for April 10th, but not the 24th, for those who want to be among the first to touch an ?Watch for 15 minutes, but didn't manage to get a reservation -- I wonder how many will know they won't be able to walk away with one? But I stand corrected -- the lines will certainly be mitigated for anyone who knows they won't be going home with one. It does raise the question about what exactly Apple will be doing on the supply side -- one has to assume a certain number of aluminum and stainless watches ready and available, with custom runs of specific bands based on the pre-orders. Otherwise, I would think they would be significantly constrained trying to build units during those two weeks for delivery on the 24th. It will be very interesting to see how quickly the pre-sales delivery date slips past the 24th.
You'd somehow forgot when I'd already made that point? Sigh.
They have to do some forecasting, but not quite so much as it appears, given that the main variant is the bands, and they can be paired with watches based on demand. The other point I'd made earlier was that the two weeks of preorders will allow Apple to fine tune the mix.
You are constructing the public's desire for a round watch predicated out of your own personal interest in replicating your existing watch worldview.
Oh please -- I have no such worldview, nor have I ever written anything that suggests that's why I defend the round watch format in these discussions. The fact is, Apple is treading into the watch business, and the world of fashion. Based on Apple's previous history with other product offerings they once stated they had no interest in developing, e.g. 7" tablets, 5.5" iPhones, and on the comments of arguably the most powerful man at Apple, Jony Ive, and everything they are doing as a whole with marketing and options, I see a strong possibility that Apple may deliver a round watch as early as 2nd Gen. Just like they delivered a white color option with the 2nd gen. iPhone 3G (which turned out to be a major engineering problem). There's no obvious practical or technical reason why they can't design a round watch to display square blocks of text just as effectively as a square watch, and the fashion aspect of the watch market sort of beckons them to do it.
You are of course entitled to your opinion, but there's no more proof that Apple will follow your course than mine at this point considering everything about this launch is different from anything that's ever come before it.
Comments
The Moto360 is monsterously clownish in TODAY's culture. What do you think people would have said if the Samsung Note came out in 2007? People would have called it monsterously clownish. But things change. It will take several years but I would not be surprised if in 5 years wrist mounted devices will be much bigger than 2 inches.
It took 5 years for the general public to accept a 5+ inch phone. It may take just as long for a 'large' watch to be socially acceptable. Apple is doing it right by releasing a relatively small watch so it is socially acceptable. Once the market understands the value of such a device they will be more willing to wear larger versions.
Now you are going down the right path. Yes hologram is a possibility, along with paper thin screens that can fold. Display technology is constantly evolving. Who knows what we will see in 10 years. And that's my point about having vision. Its seems that you are focused on what the Watch will be in the next 3 years. I'm looking at what the Watch will be in 10 years.
I think you are solving for the wrong parameter.
It may be that flexible AMOLED display will allow a band of information to be displayed on the wrist, but it doesn't change the paradigm that Apple is establishing for 5 to 10 second interactions. What exactly is a larger and/or wider watch going to be able to do with that natural constraint, and I say natural, as I assume that Apple spent thousands of man-hours determining what was the optimum interaction time for the wrist wearable. The practical adaptation of this is that the current Apple Watch is pretty thick, so I assume that the two case sizes we have today are pretty close to optimum, with a future driven by thinner, not bigger.
This is the watch paradigm, but I'm sure that Android Wear will be a testing ground for monstrous smart watch implementations, but I would hope that they get the same bum's rush as Glassholes did.
It may be that 10 years from now there will be a wearable that is larger, but it won't be a watch, it will be something other than a watch and probably transparent during inactivity.
The interest in Apple Watch might be fairly gaged on the weekend of April 10, based on in-store activity, but we won't have any good reason to guess at how many were preordered until two weeks later. Apple is also discouraging walk-in buyers on April 24, which should mitigate the "camp out" affect.
Where are you getting this?
First, if Apple's inventory is sold out in the first 24 hours of pre-orders, then I think everyone will know pretty quick, and either analysts or Apple will tell us how many that comprises long before the watches arrive in stores -- and even if they sell-out pre-orders, there will be watches for sale on release day. Second, what is Apple doing to discourage walk-in buyers? The last I read they allegedly have a plan to accommodate them, knowing full well they will be there. While they are encouraging reservations, I don't see how this discourages "camping out" on April 24. If anything, sold-out pre-orders will drive people who don't need to actually see the physical watch directly to the stores which will be the only source of unclaimed ?Watches. I believe a read that Apple will have two queues, one for reservations, and one for immediate purchase. People waiting for April 24 to make a reservation to go into an Apple Store and see the watch before they purchase may find themselves with very limited selection to chose from, if any. If some of the very large sales predictions pan out, then I fully expect the ?Watch launch to be just as much of a circus as any other Apple product.
Exactly. If we're on this forum, we're all nerdy enough to imagine all kinds of cool future gadgets. But today, and the foreseeable future, the Apple Watch is a watch. Apple went to great lengths to fit all of that technology into a tiny, stylish enclosure. I'm not particularly interested in it, but I wildly admire the design and technological innovation. They aren't doing all that hard work to later slap an iphone 6+ across our forearms.
Exactly. If we're on this forum, we're all nerdy enough to imagine all kinds of cool future gadgets. But today, and the foreseeable future, the Apple Watch is a watch. Apple went to great lengths to fit all of that technology into a tiny, stylish enclosure. I'm not particularly interested in it, but I wildly admire the design and technological innovation. They aren't doing all that hard work to later slap an iphone 6+ on our wrists.
I think SOG is in the same trap as the Glassholes; just because you can do it, doesn't mean you should do it.
It's glances that will define wearables, not long tasks, which will be deemed socially unacceptable. That's what Apple figured out, and its an improvement over the constant smartphone interaction wrt notifications. I'm looking forward to it, and waiting to preorder.
The original Mac UI redefined everyone's expectations of personal computing.
The ? Watch UI will change how humans interact with technology well beyond mere wristwatches.
Goodbye dials, buttons and switches - they're going the way of buggy whips and gasoline.
He doesn't even make sense though. Everyone who doesn't agree with him has "no vision" and then he goes on to imagine some pretty silly stuff that Apple could do today if they wanted to. If they wanted a big curved screen, an iPhone on your forearm, with better battery life, gps, and all, they could do that. But they've clearly chosen not to. Glances have nothing to do with battery life, as he ridiculously suggests. They are part of Apple's overall product vision, not a solution to a nonexistent problem.
Wha?? At 1.56 inches across it's only slightly wider than the smallest Apple Watch and narrower than the larger one.
If (And I personally think when) Apple releases a round smartwatch version in the next gen I'll be looking forward to your comments.
Haha, exactly. I don't understand why anyone would compare the Moto360 to the ?Watch. When Apple does a round watch option (and I'm betting as early as next Spring), it will be crafted to compete with the finest round Swiss watches available today, and it will look perfectly at home with the customized watch OS that takes advantage of the areas surrounding the central square text display area. And it will be just as beautiful as the current ?Watch.
Agreed. And it's already happening. Have you seen the Adorne light switches? Their high end switch is a trackpad. Tap on and off. Slide your finger up and down to control brightness.
Where are you getting this?
First, if Apple's inventory is sold out in the first 24 hours of pre-orders, then I think everyone will know pretty quick, and either analysts or Apple will tell us how many that comprises long before the watches arrive in stores -- and even if they sell-out pre-orders, there will be watches for sale on release day. Second, what is Apple doing to discourage walk-in buyers? The last I read they allegedly have a plan to accommodate them, knowing full well they will be there. While they are encouraging reservations, I don't see how this discourages "camping out" on April 24. If anything, sold-out pre-orders will drive people who don't need to actually see the physical watch directly to the stores which will be the only source of unclaimed ?Watches. I believe a read that Apple will have two queues, one for reservations, and one for immediate purchase. People waiting for April 24 to make a reservation to go into an Apple Store and see the watch before they purchase may find themselves with very limited selection to chose from, if any. If some of the very large sales predictions pan out, then I fully expect the ?Watch launch to be just as much of a circus as any other Apple product.
We won't know much if anything about total sales even if Apple Watch shows up as backordered on the first weekend, because we won't know the size of the prerelease inventory, and especially since it will be spread over so many models. One has to imagine that Apple will use the two week preorder demand to adjust inventory as much as possible. The other wrinkle not present with previous new Apple products is the try-on appointments. This is Apple's recognition that this is a product most people will want to see and feel before buying. In terms of discouraging camping out, you answered your own question. Those who must have their Apple Watch on day one will preorder, sight unseen if necessary. Though some people will no doubt line up at Apple Stores on April 24, the rationale for doing so is even more questionable with Apple Watch than it was with previous Apple products, if for no other reason than they had two weeks before then to try one on and preorder it, no camping out required.
You are wise and mighty! That is why you spend your days trolling Mac fan sites instead of putting that visionary mind of yours to good use in the industry. Makes perfect sense to me.
Though some people will no doubt line up at Apple Stores on April 24, the rationale for doing so is even more questionable with Apple Watch than it was with previous Apple products, if for no other reason than they had two weeks before then to try one on and preorder it, no camping out required.
Yes I did answer my own question: If pre-orders sell out in the first 24 hours, then the ONLY way to get an ?Watch on April 24th, will be to CAMP OUT thus ensuring you are one of the first customers in line to buy one available only at the store -- whether you've previously made an appointment to try one on or not.
This will absolutely be no different than any iPhone release where pre-orders have been possible. Why would anyone line up outside the Apple Store to buy an iPhone if they could have gotten one on pre-order? Yet every new product launch there they are, despite the well organized and publicized pre-order window. This will be the same.
EDIT: I stand corrected. I had forgotten about this "leak" last week. However, it doesn't change the fact they will allow walk-in demo/fittings for a pre-order, so I fully expect a few lines on the 10th for people who merely want to be one of the first to get their hands on one.
Originally Posted by tmay
Quote:
Here's a current example of how GPS would be an important factor to the ?Watch -- the Riptide Search GPS surf watch -- Active GPS surfing provides up to 10 continuous hours. That's waaaay better than the 3 hours of talk time, and the 6 hours of music playback the ?Watch currently offers. The Search also offers up to 6 months operation on a single charge without using GPS, compared to the ?Watches 72 hours? Now that's not an entirely fair comparison since the Search display is B&W LCD, and I don't even think it has a backlight. But the point is, if Apple is selling a device with features capable of draining the battery within 3-6 hours, then GPS, in a real world application that is much less of a drain on battery life, is not a huge leap, nor does it require "massive battery technology revolution, to implement it in the same user optional manner as the other potential power drains.
http://searchgps.ripcurl.com/welcome/the-watch.php
GPS didn't make it into this iteration, and it may not make it into the next, but Apple will work it in at some point. In the meantime, clever accelerometers, algorithms, and training provide a typical user with pedometer functions detached from the iPhone; good enough. A compass would be more useful initially for runners that train on set courses, creating waypoints at sharp turns.
I use GAIA on my iPhone and it is very useful for off trail use, but I would't see much of its function transferred to the Apple Watch; some would be useful.
Well for me, this particular use of GPS for surfing cannot easily be replaced by other technologies. I can't speak to how a runner might want to use it, or what’s acceptable to one. While I have no way to substantiate this, based on other technologies Apple reportedly left off of the 1st ben watch, my assumption is that the watch at one point had GPS, and it was left out for cost reasons, as power management doesn't seem to be a substantial problem considering the Riptide watch offering.
The bigger issue than GPS for me is proper water-resistance. Right now Apple is excluding the entire water sports enthusiast community as well as water-oriented occupations, with the watch's limited water-resistance. So that I see as the first big improvement, before this particularly desirable use of GPS is even possible. But that’s not to say that excluding such a demographic is going to necessarily impact their sales — the stock broker who surfs (and there are lot of them in LA), will just as likely buy an ?Watch for use when he gets to the office, and buy a dedicated surf watch too. It’s really only some fitness-only customers whom Apple is excluding (the ones who aren’t particularly interested in notifications), and they don’t seem to be the target market anyway.
Make no mistake about it:
Apple will release a watch with GPS, possibly as early as 2nd Gen.
Apple will release a round watch, possibly as early as 2nd gen.
Apple will release a more water-resistant watch, almost certainly by 2nd gen.
Make no mistake about it:
Apple will release a watch with GPS, possibly as early as 2nd Gen.
Apple will release a round watch, possibly as early as 2nd gen.
Apple will release a more water-resistant watch, almost certainly by 2nd gen.
GPS and water proofing are of course natural improvements to this product, even tho id only put it at 50-50 for the next gen. round face will definitely not be seen in 2nd gen, and probably not for many years. Ive said he chose rectangle because the form follows the function of screen use, and we dont use round-screened devices. so for him to reserve course in such a short time spam seems very unlikely to me.
Take my word for it. The entire industry is mobilizing into wearables in the next 10 years. The companies that fail to make investments RIGHT NOW will be left behind like Blackberry.
SOG,
I don't think you are listening.
No, let me rephrase that; you aren't listening or you have poor reading comprehension.
There isn't going to be an Apple Watch morphing into a replacement for the iPhone, There may be another wearable that does what the iPhone does but in a different paradigm, though I'm hard pressed to imagine what that would; perhaps embedded in clothing, a transparent/translucent flexible bracelet, or an eyepiece. I do think Apple will create in the future a fitness band, or even just a band that will be a subset of the Apple Watch, but it won't be called an Apple Watch for obvious reasons.
None of these will replace the Apple Watch or iPhone product lines; they will be additional and niche product lines.
Yes I did answer my own question: If pre-orders sell out in the first 24 hours, then the ONLY way to get an ?Watch on April 24th, will be to CAMP OUT thus ensuring you are one of the first customers in line to buy one available only at the store -- whether you've previously made an appointment to try one on or not.
This will absolutely be no different than any iPhone release where pre-orders have been possible. Why would anyone line up outside the Apple Store to buy an iPhone if they could have gotten one on pre-order? Yet every new product launch there they are, despite the well organized and publicized pre-order window. This will be the same.
Except that Apple has already said that they won't sell watches to walk-ins, at least not initially. All the initial stock is allocated to reservations made online.
Apple will release a watch with GPS, possibly as early as 2nd Gen.
Apple will release a round watch, possibly as early as 2nd gen.
Apple will release a more water-resistant watch, almost certainly by 2nd gen.
I wouldn't be so sure about the round watch. It's not as if it never occurred to Apple that a watch could be round. Jony Ive is a huge fan of mechanical watches. I think that they made a conscious decision that a square screen is ideal for a wrist-worn wearable device. I think we'll see additional bands, to be sure, perhaps some new colors in the stainless steel line, but that it will always have a rectangular screen.
So you know Apple's product map for the next 10 years now?
I agree it won't be called a Watch but it will evolve from the Watch. Just like how the iPhone evolved from the iPod.
Tech only goes one direction. Forward. Computers are getting close and close to our brain. Wearables is the next step
Do you know it? Are you knowitall now?
Wearable X won't displace the Apple Watch anytime soon, nor will it displace the iPhone/smartwatch anytime soon. These are both familiar UI's, and the iPod still finds sales for children and youth, as doe the iPad Mini, so those will stay around indefinitely.
Whatever the next tech for wearables is, it will have a UI that is not the Apple Watch UI, unless it is a band or bracelet, but I don't think those are the wearables that you are envisioning. Even an eyepiece wearable will have a different UI than the Apple Watch.
Apple isn't going to shoehorn a UI into a product, it will be integrated into it, and that goes for whatever future wearable are added to the mix.
Except that Apple has already said that they won't sell watches to walk-ins, at least not initially. All the initial stock is allocated to reservations made online.
Right. I somehow forgot that. However, since they do take walk-ins for a demo/fitting. So really, the lines will be for April 10th, but not the 24th, for those who want to be among the first to touch an ?Watch for 15 minutes, but didn't manage to get a reservation -- I wonder how many will know they won't be able to walk away with one? But I stand corrected -- the lines will certainly be mitigated for anyone who knows they won't be going home with one. It does raise the question about what exactly Apple will be doing on the supply side -- one has to assume a certain number of aluminum and stainless watches ready and available, with custom runs of specific bands based on the pre-orders. Otherwise, I would think they would be significantly constrained trying to build units during those two weeks for delivery on the 24th. It will be very interesting to see how quickly the pre-sales delivery date slips past the 24th.
The one thing I'm sure of is Apple can be counted on to change it's mind if the mood suits them. While Ive said “When a huge part of the function is lists, a circle doesn’t make any sense” all that can be gleaned from that is that a square watch made the most sense for the first iteration of the product. Because, Ive also said this: "As soon as something is worn, we have expectations of choice," said Ive, before joking that "only in prison" do you see uniformity in what people wear.
Add to that Apple's focus on fashion with this product, and their historical offering of color choices, and finally the current variation of size options across all of their products. Apple customers are used to choice, and here you have Ive telling us, when a customer wears a product they expect choice, and won't likely all be happy wearing the same thing (equating it with prison!). Watch bands and case finishes will only go so far to placate the customer desire for choice and distinction when it comes to jewelry. And that's why I say they will release a round model (along side the square) as early as 2nd gen. Now Apple may decide not to cater to the fashion industry's desire for round watches, but considering there are no drawbacks to displaying a square within a circle when it comes to displaying "lists", I'd be surprised if they didn't. As long as Apple is pushing their watch into jewelry stores to be sold alongside traditional watches, the comparison is always going to be there, along with the fashion element in a consumer's mind.
By the way Ive also said this when discussing how using the Apple Watch differs in the type of interaction when compared to something like the iPhone, noting that a device worn on the wrist is best used for "lightweight interactions" and "casual glancing." So if this is what Ive truly believes, then those "lists" won't be so detailed as to actually require a square display, opening the door for much wider fashion-centric options in future watch designs.
Right. I somehow forgot that. However, since they do take walk-ins for a demo/fitting. So really, the lines will be for April 10th, but not the 24th, for those who want to be among the first to touch an ?Watch for 15 minutes, but didn't manage to get a reservation -- I wonder how many will know they won't be able to walk away with one? But I stand corrected -- the lines will certainly be mitigated for anyone who knows they won't be going home with one. It does raise the question about what exactly Apple will be doing on the supply side -- one has to assume a certain number of aluminum and stainless watches ready and available, with custom runs of specific bands based on the pre-orders. Otherwise, I would think they would be significantly constrained trying to build units during those two weeks for delivery on the 24th. It will be very interesting to see how quickly the pre-sales delivery date slips past the 24th.
The one thing I'm sure of is Apple can be counted on to change it's mind if the mood suits them. While Ive said “When a huge part of the function is lists, a circle doesn’t make any sense” all that can be gleaned from that is that a square watch made the most sense for the first iteration of the product. Because, Ive also said this: "As soon as something is worn, we have expectations of choice," said Ive, before joking that "only in prison" do you see uniformity in what people wear.
Add to that Apple's focus on fashion with this product, and their historical offering of color choices, and finally the current variation of size options across all of their products. Apple customers are used to choice, and here you have Ive telling us, when a customer wears a product they expect choice, and won't likely all be happy wearing the same thing (equating it with prison!). Watch bands and case finishes will only go so far to placate the customer desire for choice and distinction when it comes to jewelry. And that's why I say they will release a round model (along side the square) as early as 2nd gen. Now Apple may decide not to cater to the fashion industry's desire for round watches, but considering there are no drawbacks to displaying a square within a circle when it comes to displaying "lists", I'd be surprised if they didn't. As long as Apple is pushing their watch into jewelry stores to be sold alongside traditional watches, the comparison is always going to be there, along with the fashion element in a consumer's mind.
By the way Ive also said this when discussing how using the Apple Watch differs in the type of interaction when compared to something like the iPhone, noting that a device worn on the wrist is best used for "lightweight interactions" and "casual glancing." So if this is what Ive truly believes, then those "lists" won't be so detailed as to actually require a square display, opening the door for much wider fashion-centric options in future watch designs.
You are constructing the public's desire for a round watch predicated out of your own personal interest in replicating your existing watch worldview. I'm not seeing that at all for the near term, and possibly not for the longer term either. Apple will be more interested in gaining App momentum with developers than diverging design to other than a specific rectangular format.
Other shapes than rectangular may happen, but almost certainly not until the Apple Watch brand is well established and the ecosystem is fully baked. I certainly might be wrong about this, but my perspective most matches Apple's historical evolution of product lines.
Apple's focus on fashion? I'm not seeing it as the primary driver of the Apple Watch design; that would be the UI.
Right. I somehow forgot that. However, since they do take walk-ins for a demo/fitting. So really, the lines will be for April 10th, but not the 24th, for those who want to be among the first to touch an ?Watch for 15 minutes, but didn't manage to get a reservation -- I wonder how many will know they won't be able to walk away with one? But I stand corrected -- the lines will certainly be mitigated for anyone who knows they won't be going home with one. It does raise the question about what exactly Apple will be doing on the supply side -- one has to assume a certain number of aluminum and stainless watches ready and available, with custom runs of specific bands based on the pre-orders. Otherwise, I would think they would be significantly constrained trying to build units during those two weeks for delivery on the 24th. It will be very interesting to see how quickly the pre-sales delivery date slips past the 24th.
You'd somehow forgot when I'd already made that point? Sigh.
They have to do some forecasting, but not quite so much as it appears, given that the main variant is the bands, and they can be paired with watches based on demand. The other point I'd made earlier was that the two weeks of preorders will allow Apple to fine tune the mix.
You are constructing the public's desire for a round watch predicated out of your own personal interest in replicating your existing watch worldview.
Oh please -- I have no such worldview, nor have I ever written anything that suggests that's why I defend the round watch format in these discussions. The fact is, Apple is treading into the watch business, and the world of fashion. Based on Apple's previous history with other product offerings they once stated they had no interest in developing, e.g. 7" tablets, 5.5" iPhones, and on the comments of arguably the most powerful man at Apple, Jony Ive, and everything they are doing as a whole with marketing and options, I see a strong possibility that Apple may deliver a round watch as early as 2nd Gen. Just like they delivered a white color option with the 2nd gen. iPhone 3G (which turned out to be a major engineering problem). There's no obvious practical or technical reason why they can't design a round watch to display square blocks of text just as effectively as a square watch, and the fashion aspect of the watch market sort of beckons them to do it.
You are of course entitled to your opinion, but there's no more proof that Apple will follow your course than mine at this point considering everything about this launch is different from anything that's ever come before it.