"This morning tech pundits were caught flat-footed by a Reuters reportin which Samsung claimed it had “sold” 800,000 of the widely-panned Galaxy Gear smartwatches. This figure seems too good to be true for a device that critics consistently derided as light on battery life, excessively complicated and “inconsistent and frustrating.”
and this;
"Just because a company manufactures and ships (to retailers) a certain number of a device doesn’t mean they’re selling. And an earlier rumor published by BusinessKorea says that Samsung has actually sold only 50,000 Gear smartwatches. The difference between 800,000 and 50,000 is 750,000 smartwatches, and at $300 apiece they represent a potential $225 million in unsold goods."
I'm thinking that I would have fought my inner demons to keep that 800,000 figure out of the conversation.
Thank you AI for being the only site credible enough to call these estimates! Why do all these "news" organizations treat estimates and speculation as fact???
"Credible enough"? That is a stretch. In this instance maybe, but let a rumor favoring TSMC over Samsung come along and that credibility is trashed.
On another front, I have read nothing this morning about Samsung's opening weekend of smartphone sales... Uh, shipments. Looking forward to the spin on that to arrive... Or not.
Industry researcher Canalys stated in a new report that only about 720,000 out of 4.6 million Android Wear devices were shipped in the last six months of 2014.
Telling yourself that story eases the pain, doesn't it?
No. I have no horse in this race so there is no pain involved. I think ?Watch sales will be way in excess of any competition. I would agree with the doubts over Samsung's numbers. Claiming that sales of smart watches in 2014 were less than a million was far less credible than Samsung's numbers, though.
I literally don't care how high or low smart watch sales prove to be. They are not for me, but good luck to anyone who can find a use for one.
Apple shipped 1,764,000 Macintosh® computers, representing 33 percent growth over the year-ago quarter and exceeding the previous company record for quarterly Mac® shipments by over 150,000. The Company also sold 9,815,000 iPods during the quarter, representing 21 percent growth over the year-ago quarter.
I am not doubting all those shipments end in sales. The same goes for those perennial stupid comments about Samsung shipping large numbers of Galaxy's S phones and Notes and them just ending in landfill. Those sold too. Samsungs past earnings statements were proof of that.
Let me see if I can help you out here.
First, yes, Apple's revenue recognition is, indeed, based on shipments like that of all the others. However, during every quarterly analyst conference call, Tim Cook provides data on channel inventory, so you can estimate the actual sales. Samsung does not do that. All we have from them are shipments for crappy products that likely get returned in large numbers (perhaps that is the reason they don't report channel inventory).
Second, the actual sales data thus derived show that Apple's shipments numbers are almost identical to sales. We have no clue about that for the others (since they don't report channel inventory).
Third, this article is about a firm estimating pre-orders. While that will certainly equal shipments, past evidence tells us that will roughly equal sales. If not, we'll have actual data based on channel inventory when Cook mentions those in the analyst conference call.
People like you have trouble accepting Apple's success. Please go suck an egg, or hang out in an Android/Samsung forum, or whatever, instead of incessantly and shamelessly polluting this forum.
These are estimates not including 8 other countries. Also does not include Gold watches which sold out. Margins on Gold are insane and can push ASP much higher with much fewer sales.
I have often questioned how anybody outside of a select group of Apple elite have any idea what the margin for the Edition really is.
From what I have read, calculating the margins as presented below, might support your view.
However, what seems to be missing from this perspective, is the additional cost of advertising, marketing, sales, security, insurance, and at what gross margin would the exclusive high-end retail boutiques require to display, advertise, market and sell the Edition in their stores.
I would suggest that the cost of security and insurance from manufacturing and shipping for the Editions (as well as the Cost of case build tabled above) would by significantly and extremely higher than for the ?Watch Sport or ?Watch.
And we must keep in mind, the above table is Gross Margin. Net Margin is another matter.
As for watch bands, 49 percent of Apple Watch and Sport buyers opted for a black fluoroelastomer Sport Band, while 16 percent chose the white Sport Band. Apple's woven steel Milanese Loop came in third with about 10 percent.
No, you are speaking out of your backside. How about you provide some links backing your 'quality' numbers?
This is a dumb argument. Everyone knows that Samsung just gave watches away. I know this because my brother works for AT&T and has two, and just used to give them with phone purchases to boost his accessorie sales. It's like saying android sells more phone even though you see more iPhones in the wild. The phones may be out there, but no one wants them, the people who use them are the old ladies that the salesperson sold to who don't know how to use anything but the call option. They also have a Samsung gear in a drawer
Yes. Apple does report shipments to channel. It also gives channel inventory though, and goes out of its way to not stuff the channel. As we can see that can lead to shortages but that plays better than huge shipments in one Q followed by a collapse.
"Just because a company manufactures and ships (to retailers) a certain number of a device doesn’t mean they’re selling. And an earlier rumor published by BusinessKorea says that Samsung has <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/galaxy-gear-reportedly-epic-flop-sold-under-50-220557084.html" style="color:rgb(22,141,217);margin:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;" target="_blank">actually sold only 50,000 Gear smartwatches</a> . The difference between 800,000 and 50,000 is 750,000 smartwatches, and at $300 apiece they represent a potential $225 million in unsold goods."
I'm thinking that I would have fought my inner demons to keep that 800,000 figure out of the conversation.
in general cnocbui's scepticism about these Apple sales beating all Android watch sales was justified.
But what atrocious inventory management by Samsung.
<div class="quote-container" data-huddler-embed="/t/185732/launch-day-apple-watch-orders-estimated-at-1m-in-us-skews-toward-sport-model#post_2708824" data-huddler-embed-placeholder="false">Quote:<div class="quote-block">Originally Posted by <strong>cnocbui</strong> <a href="/t/185732/launch-day-apple-watch-orders-estimated-at-1m-in-us-skews-toward-sport-model#post_2708824"><img alt="View Post" src="/img/forum/go_quote.gif" /></a><br /> <div class="quote-container" data-huddler-embed="/t/185732/launch-day-apple-watch-orders-estimated-at-1m-in-us-skews-toward-sport-model#post_2708823" data-huddler-embed-placeholder="false">Quote:<div class="quote-block">Originally Posted by <strong>MattBookAir</strong> <a href="/t/185732/launch-day-apple-watch-orders-estimated-at-1m-in-us-skews-toward-sport-model#post_2708823"><img alt="View Post" src="/img/forum/go_quote.gif" /></a><br /> <p><br />No.</p></div></div><p><br />Er, yes.</p><p> </p><div class="quote-container">Quote:<div class="quote-block"><div> Apple <strong>shipped</strong> 1,764,000 Macintosh® computers, representing 33 percent growth over the year-ago quarter and exceeding the previous company record for quarterly Mac® <strong>shipments</strong> by over 150,000. The Company also <strong>sold</strong> 9,815,000 iPods during the quarter, representing 21 percent growth over the year-ago quarter.</div></div></div><p>https://www.apple.com/pr/library/2007/07/25Apple-Reports-Third-Quarter-Results.html</p><p> </p><p>I am not doubting all those shipments end in sales. The same goes for those perennial stupid comments about Samsung shipping large numbers of Galaxy's S phones and Notes and them just ending in landfill. Those sold too. Samsungs past earnings statements were proof of that.</p></div></div><p>Let me see if I can help you out here.</p><p> </p><p>First, yes, Apple's revenue recognition is, indeed, based on shipments like that of all the others. However, during every quarterly analyst conference call, Tim Cook provides data on channel inventory, so you can estimate the <em>actual sales</em>. Samsung does not do that. All we have from them are shipments for crappy products that likely get returned in large numbers (perhaps that is the reason they don't report channel inventory).</p><p> </p><p>Second, the actual sales data thus derived show that Apple's shipments numbers are almost identical to sales. We have no clue about that for the others (since they don't report channel inventory).</p><p> </p><p>Third, this article is about a firm estimating pre-orders. While that will certainly equal shipments, past evidence tells us that will roughly equal sales. If not, we'll have actual data based on channel inventory when Cook mentions those in the analyst conference call.</p><p> </p><p>People like you have trouble accepting Apple's success. Please go suck an egg, or hang out in an Android/Samsung forum, or whatever, instead of incessantly and shamelessly polluting this forum.</p>
Actually I don't think estimates from some firm most of us have never heard of will equal sales. This firm wants attention and name recognition so they put out a press release on their analysis. I'd still love to know who would let a firm like this track their emails.
I tried to order 3 watches, on my Citi Diamond Card (doubles the warranty). One for myself, one for my wife, and one for a friend. At checkout it said, "Limit 2 Watches per Itunes Account" So I am not sure if they are limiting it based on address or itunes account. But the red error message I got said that.
Actually I don't think estimates from some firm most of us have never heard of will equal sales. This firm wants attention and name recognition so they put out a press release on their analysis. I'd still love to know who would let a firm like this track their emails.
I don't buy the accuracy of these numbers either, but right now, they are the only numbers that appear to have any actual data behind them. Early on, I guessed that Apple had probably targeted a million units for preorder/retail sales. I'm thinking that Apple didn't make that number. but I will be happy to be wrong about that.
Actually I don't think estimates from some firm most of us have never heard of will equal sales. This firm wants attention and name recognition so they put out a press release on their analysis. I'd still love to know who would let a firm like this track their emails.
You didn't understand my post. I could care less about this firm. I am simply saying that if one million is Apple's 'shipments,' it'll likely be Apple's 'sales.'
That said, I am guessing one million is a very likely number for Day 1.
It warms my heart to see the faux tech gods here and elsewhere scratching their heads with looks of incredulity on their faces. Can you finally wake up and realize that you are not the arbiters of what is acceptable in electronic consumer products? Why can’t watches become common and fashionable again? Why can’t smart watches be the next big thing?
Comments
http://qz.com/148833/samsungs-galaxy-gear-didnt-sell-800000-units-and-it-could-be-as-big-a-flop-as-microsoft-surface/
"This morning tech pundits were caught flat-footed by a Reuters reportin which Samsung claimed it had “sold” 800,000 of the widely-panned Galaxy Gear smartwatches. This figure seems too good to be true for a device that critics consistently derided as light on battery life, excessively complicated and “inconsistent and frustrating.”
and this;
"Just because a company manufactures and ships (to retailers) a certain number of a device doesn’t mean they’re selling. And an earlier rumor published by BusinessKorea says that Samsung has actually sold only 50,000 Gear smartwatches. The difference between 800,000 and 50,000 is 750,000 smartwatches, and at $300 apiece they represent a potential $225 million in unsold goods."
I'm thinking that I would have fought my inner demons to keep that 800,000 figure out of the conversation.
Welp! there you have it.
"Credible enough"? That is a stretch. In this instance maybe, but let a rumor favoring TSMC over Samsung come along and that credibility is trashed.
On another front, I have read nothing this morning about Samsung's opening weekend of smartphone sales... Uh, shipments. Looking forward to the spin on that to arrive... Or not.
I'm guessing that is your quote, not sflocal's.
Quote:
http://en.yibada.com/articles/13288/20150212/motorola-moto-360-leads-pack-720-000-out-4-6.htm
You won the argument about "Apple shipped more in one day than Android Wear did in a year"; good for you. It's nice to win every now and then.
You are aware that the Android Wear market collapsed the the second half, and what that actually means, right?
It might mean that consumers had found Android Wear to be complete and udder rubbish, and stopped buying them.
It might also mean that too many Android Wear products were in channel, unsold, so companies stopped shipping them.
More than likely, it is a combination of both.
Either way, it looks like Android Wear had a very, very sad Christmas.
I've seen a couple of Samsung smart watches out in the wild. Samsung does have a habit of bundling old stock with their TVs though.
Telling yourself that story eases the pain, doesn't it?
No. I have no horse in this race so there is no pain involved. I think ?Watch sales will be way in excess of any competition. I would agree with the doubts over Samsung's numbers. Claiming that sales of smart watches in 2014 were less than a million was far less credible than Samsung's numbers, though.
I literally don't care how high or low smart watch sales prove to be. They are not for me, but good luck to anyone who can find a use for one.
No.
Er, yes.
https://www.apple.com/pr/library/2007/07/25Apple-Reports-Third-Quarter-Results.html
I am not doubting all those shipments end in sales. The same goes for those perennial stupid comments about Samsung shipping large numbers of Galaxy's S phones and Notes and them just ending in landfill. Those sold too. Samsungs past earnings statements were proof of that.
Let me see if I can help you out here.
First, yes, Apple's revenue recognition is, indeed, based on shipments like that of all the others. However, during every quarterly analyst conference call, Tim Cook provides data on channel inventory, so you can estimate the actual sales. Samsung does not do that. All we have from them are shipments for crappy products that likely get returned in large numbers (perhaps that is the reason they don't report channel inventory).
Second, the actual sales data thus derived show that Apple's shipments numbers are almost identical to sales. We have no clue about that for the others (since they don't report channel inventory).
Third, this article is about a firm estimating pre-orders. While that will certainly equal shipments, past evidence tells us that will roughly equal sales. If not, we'll have actual data based on channel inventory when Cook mentions those in the analyst conference call.
People like you have trouble accepting Apple's success. Please go suck an egg, or hang out in an Android/Samsung forum, or whatever, instead of incessantly and shamelessly polluting this forum.
These are estimates not including 8 other countries. Also does not include Gold watches which sold out. Margins on Gold are insane and can push ASP much higher with much fewer sales.
I have often questioned how anybody outside of a select group of Apple elite have any idea what the margin for the Edition really is.
From what I have read, calculating the margins as presented below, might support your view.
However, what seems to be missing from this perspective, is the additional cost of advertising, marketing, sales, security, insurance, and at what gross margin would the exclusive high-end retail boutiques require to display, advertise, market and sell the Edition in their stores.
I would suggest that the cost of security and insurance from manufacturing and shipping for the Editions (as well as the Cost of case build tabled above) would by significantly and extremely higher than for the ?Watch Sport or ?Watch.
And we must keep in mind, the above table is Gross Margin. Net Margin is another matter.
Apple also indicates the supply chain depth. Huge difference.
As for watch bands, 49 percent of Apple Watch and Sport buyers opted for a black fluoroelastomer Sport Band, while 16 percent chose the white Sport Band. Apple's woven steel Milanese Loop came in third with about 10 percent.
Source: Slice Intelligence
So, what am I missing? The graphic does not match the copy.
This is a dumb argument. Everyone knows that Samsung just gave watches away. I know this because my brother works for AT&T and has two, and just used to give them with phone purchases to boost his accessorie sales. It's like saying android sells more phone even though you see more iPhones in the wild. The phones may be out there, but no one wants them, the people who use them are the old ladies that the salesperson sold to who don't know how to use anything but the call option. They also have a Samsung gear in a drawer
Apple may not break out the watch numbers this quarter. They said they wouldn't but they might mention some release day numbers.
Yes. Apple does report shipments to channel. It also gives channel inventory though, and goes out of its way to not stuff the channel. As we can see that can lead to shortages but that plays better than huge shipments in one Q followed by a collapse.
in general cnocbui's scepticism about these Apple sales beating all Android watch sales was justified.
But what atrocious inventory management by Samsung.
Actually I don't think estimates from some firm most of us have never heard of will equal sales. This firm wants attention and name recognition so they put out a press release on their analysis. I'd still love to know who would let a firm like this track their emails.
One for myself, one for my wife, and one for a friend.
At checkout it said, "Limit 2 Watches per Itunes Account"
So I am not sure if they are limiting it based on address or itunes account. But the red error message I got said that.
Actually I don't think estimates from some firm most of us have never heard of will equal sales. This firm wants attention and name recognition so they put out a press release on their analysis. I'd still love to know who would let a firm like this track their emails.
I don't buy the accuracy of these numbers either, but right now, they are the only numbers that appear to have any actual data behind them. Early on, I guessed that Apple had probably targeted a million units for preorder/retail sales. I'm thinking that Apple didn't make that number. but I will be happy to be wrong about that.
You didn't understand my post. I could care less about this firm. I am simply saying that if one million is Apple's 'shipments,' it'll likely be Apple's 'sales.'
That said, I am guessing one million is a very likely number for Day 1.
I am fairly certain that Apple will, when they announce their quarterly financial results in a couple of weeks.
It warms my heart to see the faux tech gods here and elsewhere scratching their heads with looks of incredulity on their faces. Can you finally wake up and realize that you are not the arbiters of what is acceptable in electronic consumer products? Why can’t watches become common and fashionable again? Why can’t smart watches be the next big thing?
"Skews toward the sports model" hints at what I've been trying to tell Apple for years. The iPhone needs an outdoors-ready sports model.
No it doesn't.