These are estimates not including 8 other countries. Also does not include Gold watches which sold out. Margins on Gold are insane and can push ASP much higher with much fewer sales.
Rumor initial run is 5 million so I predict 2 million US and 3 millions rest of world with China HK Japan taking half of that.
Raymond James analyst downgraded Apple based on "muted" reviews even though many reviewers said it was BEST smartwatch yet and would buy. Munster said sales would be flop cause supply constraints casting doubt on operations GENIUS TIm Cook. Now who has MUD on their faces! Apple making analysts look foolish for sure.
The reason most of the analysts are consistently anti-Apple is because Apple has always provided them wrong and those idiots still don't get it. They all think the are much smarter than the leaders at America's most valuable company :-)
Lets see how intellectually honest you are. Go through this thread and cite my Apple negative comments.
Dragging up the same old, tired Samsung-shipped metrics isn't particularly intellectually honest, either.
I mean, I get it, you're here to stimulate discussion... but this is the same going-around-in-circles argument circulated at every Apple product launch. If you're going to act as the Forum Contrarian, some creativity in your arguments would be nice.
I literally don't care how high or low smart watch sales prove to be. They are not for me, but good luck to anyone who can find a use for one.
Calling something a useless product is as negative as it gets.
There is a good example of intellectual dishonesty, right there. I asked for a citation of Apple negative comments and you come back with my comment that was about smart watches as a class of product and was entirely brand neutral.
Steve would call them bozos pulling stuff out of their butt.
Munster said watch was supply constrained and doubted operation genius Tim Cook. This is same guy who counts heads at apple store to estimate iphone sales worldwide.
Raymond James downgraded Apple based on "muted" reviews when many reviewers said it was best smartwatch yet, magical and most if not all said they would buy.
Their analysis is like something you get from high school dropouts and it is crazy they get media attention for their "insightful" (yet wrong) analysis.
Steve would call them bozos pulling stuff out of their butt.
Munster said watch was supply constrained and doubted operation genius Tim Cook. This is same guy who counts heads at apple store to estimate iphone sales worldwide.
Raymond James downgraded Apple based on "muted" reviews when many reviewers said it was best smartwatch yet, magical and most if not all said they would buy.
Their analysis is like something you get from high school dropouts and it is crazy they get media attention for their "insightful" (yet wrong) analysis.
What many people seem to not understand about analysts is that they work for investment banks and brokerage houses, and their reports are provided to their clients as advice on stock selection. They are not designed to be released to the media at all; in fact, you won't normally be able to see the entire report unless you are a client of that company. Now, I've personally never taken anyone else's advice on what stock to buy or sell, but it should be known that these affiliated analysts are not in the business of giving their clients bad advice. That would be very bad business indeed.
Apparently, buyers of the sport model don't actually get 2 complete bands with the watch - just 3 pieces, one of which is common to the choice of band size. So... bandswapper.com is less attractive than we might have thought.
I'm still curious about if/how/when third party bands will pop up, and if Apple will turn a blind eye, or aggressively try to stop them (or something in between.)
FWIW, the comments about changing one's mind on seeing the actual product is true in my household. My wife initially thought she'd like the silver sport, but switched to the space gray when she saw it in the store. I cancelled the original 38mm silver/white; ordered a 38mm grey/black. The same June delivery appeared, although I'm sure they will ship separately.
When they are wrong with pedantic analysis it makes you wonder why anyone would let them manage their money... Apple just makes them look very foolish. They belong in mailroom
Another of BF's boy-toys hijacking the thread, trying to save face. His assumption that I should waste my time on him to re-publish links that have been plastered all over the Internet and discussed countless of times on articles just prior to the Watch introduction is laughable indeed.
For him to quote that 800k Samsung number and hiding the truth behind it, and diverting attention to me instead is just shameful.
Third, this article is about a firm estimating pre-orders. While that will certainly equal shipments, past evidence tells us that will roughly equal sales. If not, we'll have actual data based on channel inventory when Cook mentions those in the analyst conference call.
I believe Cook has said that ?Watch sales will be lumped together with 'Other Products' so in order to get more accurate estimates of watch sales one would need to extrapolate the declining sales of iPods as well as the sales of ?TV, Airports, cases and headphones, etc. Then subtract it from the total revenue in 'Other Products' to return the figure for watches alone. I don't think one would be able to get a very accurate figure though. If sales are really amazing, perhaps Cook will reveal them but lumped together with 'Other Products' it will be difficult to say, in any meaningful way, except by comparing last year quarter 2 numbers, however the headphones will skew that comparison since last year would be pre-Beats.
You make a lot of claims, which may or may not be accurate. However, the official word seems to be there will be no sales directly from brick and mortar stores on launch day. Apple has said online orders only during the initial launch for an unspecified period of time. They seemingly do not want lines on launch day. Even many preorders are refusing to allow pickup at the store. Based on this real info, combined with the pushed ship dates on preorders, I'd say that it will be a while before someone can just walk in off the street and walk out with any ?Watch.
The one place I'm not sure this applies however are the select boutiques with which Apple has partnered. There is a strong indication from Apples own statements that those select merchants will have some stock on hand. If someone lived near one of those merchants, and had not pre-ordered yet, it might be well worth the time to stop by as soon as they open their doors on the 24th. Now that would be funny ... No lines at Apple stores, but huge crowds around conservative jewelry stores which most people never set foot in.
I was unclear in my initial post. I meant to differentiate between preorders to be delivered and in store pickups.
So if you have ZERO interest in any smartwatches what is your point making hundreds of comments about smartwatches?
What is your point? What are you trying to achive?
This is like me posting hundreds of posts about African dung bats (something I have ZERO interest in).
Again tell me what is your purpose of posting about a product you have ZERO interest in?
IMO, you are either just wasting space or trolling. Prove me wrong.
Hundreds of comments on smart watches? Given my post count and time registered on this site, it looks like I make an average of 254 comments a year. I hope you understand if I call BS on that without bothering to go and count,
Would it be like you posting hundreds of comments about Samsung products you never intend buying? When I searched under your ID and the word Samsung I get 546 hits. You wouldn't be a bit of a hypocrite would you?
If you think I am trolling report me to a moderator.
1. Apple is not going to start selling something they have been pushing as hard as the Apple Watch unless they have a significant amount of inventory to make it noteworthy. They will just be shooting themselves in the foot otherwise.
2. Tim Cook is king of the supply chain and he has planned for a significant number of Apple Watches to go on sale in all the launch countries.
3. China maybe a bigger market than the US when it comes to new Apple products, Apple knows this and will have allocated at least the same number as the US if not more to China and Hong Kong. It is also logistically alot easier to deliver to China and Hong Kong.
4. These are preorders. Apple would have held back maybe half their inventory to be sold on launch day at brick and mortar stores.
5. The list of launch countries is relatively small compared to the iPhone and iPad.
This all brings up interesting questions on supply chain and the delivery process, and to comment on yours:
1. Yes, there is "significant amount of inventory" but that's subjective. Obviously there's NOT ENOUGH inventory to meet demand.
2. Yes, it is certainly planned and with CEO oversight by the "king", Tim Cook. But again, see comment #1.
3. Not sure I agree. I would think that China would not get as many aWatches as the U.S.
4. This is the most interesting question and worthy of more speculation...I wouldn't be surprised that from now on...EVERY major product launch will include online ordering only...which may be the defacto process of ordering for 3-6 months, depending on demand. Apple is becoming a type of 'amazon'...why waste space/time/$ by encouraging long wait lines at stores and having (certain low-demand models of) new products sit on shelves or at a store that happens to in a slump?... which forces a guessing game of how many/which models to deliver to each store.
Utilizing an online-only ordering system is the most efficient.
In that case, Apple may not 'allocate' any inventory for 4/24 (online or otherwise). They may simply continue fulfilling it's online ordering process...until which time (maybe 6 months from now), when demand wanes, will Apple stock shelves.
This may be exactly what Apple is doing now and forever more...all the while, tweaking factory/shipping output (as online orders are taken and analyzed). Thoughts?
Another of BF's boy-toys hijacking the thread, trying to save face. His assumption that I should waste my time on him to re-publish links that have been plastered all over the Internet and discussed countless of times on articles just prior to the Watch introduction is laughable indeed.
For him to quote that 800k Samsung number and hiding the truth behind it, and diverting attention to me instead is just shameful.
Would you like a tissue?
Can you explain why you and almost everyone, except tmay and asdasd, keep quoting the 800 K while studiously ignoring the somewhat larger figure of 4.6 Million Android Gear smart watch sales in 2014, which together with the 400 K pebbles gives 5 million smartwatch sales? I would call stating there are links that support your position while seeing no need to be bothered posting them, rather shameful. But hey, you were only out by 4 million.
You still have not explained why you post so much about a product you have ZERO interest in. Please answer the question.
And why do I post about Samsung? Maybe because they were Apple's main competition for the past 3 years? Keep your friends close and your enemies closer. I have a sizeable amount of Apple stock so of course I'm going to be concerned about Apple's competitors. But I don't go on Samsung forums and say their product sucks.
So again explain to me why you keep posting on topics about the Watch? A product you have ZERO interest in buying.
I already answered that question some 4 hours ago. You must have missed it:
Quote:
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35
So why the hell are you commenting on a thread about the Watch?
The only explanation is that you are trolling.
Ferrari forgot to invite me to purchase a Ferrari La Ferrari - that doesn't mean I am not interested in one as a topic of interest. I am extremely unlikely to buy a Samsung S6 or an iPhone 6, that doesn't mean I don't pay attention to what they are and can do. Your notion that someone should not comment on something unless they intend to buy it is quite stupid.
Cnocbui isn't a troll, he's just a very naughty boy. I jest. That's from Monty Python.
Long live discussion on this site. This all escalated from somebody claiming that apple have sold more than all Android watches. I think Apple will end up doing that this quarter, but not yet. CB did get the 800k figure wrong though but I doubt it was deliberate provocation.
It all escalated very quickly so let's all take a breather.
Now I think that Apple did sell 1-2 million in pre-orders in one day even though they sold out ridiculously fast, I was arguing that point a few days ago.
Apple haven't officially said anything. For some strange reason, as @mstone confirms, they have said they are going to group watch sales into an other category for now. I hope that's not going to be for ever.
This all brings up interesting questions on supply chain and the delivery process, and to comment on yours:
1. Yes, there is "significant amount of inventory" but that's subjective. Obviously there's NOT ENOUGH inventory to meet demand.
2. Yes, it is certainly planned and with CEO oversight by the "king", Tim Cook. But again, see comment #1.
3. Not sure I agree. I would think that China would not get as many aWatches as the U.S.
4. This is the most interesting question and worthy of more speculation...I wouldn't be surprised that from now on...EVERY major product launch will include online ordering only...which may be the defacto process of ordering for 3-6 months, depending on demand. Apple is becoming a type of 'amazon'...why waste space/time/$ by encouraging long wait lines at stores and having (certain low-demand models of) new products sit on shelves or at a store that happens to in a slump?... which forces a guessing game of how many/which models to deliver to each store.
Utilizing an online-only ordering system is the most efficient.
In that case, Apple may not 'allocate' any inventory for 4/24 (online or otherwise). They may simply continue fulfilling it's online ordering process...until which time (maybe 6 months from now), when demand wanes, will Apple stock shelves.
This may be exactly what Apple is doing now and forever more...all the while, tweaking factory/shipping output (as online orders are taken and analyzed). Thoughts?
No I don't think that's going to happen. Apple generally ship to channel as well as online and that's how they manage inventory. Their reports at the end of quarters are shipments to channel (including Apple stores) and shipments to customers, booked on the day of transit.
If it's online only there is no channel. That would be very odd but ... to argue against my original position , since they aren't breaking out watch sales it might be the case.
Can you explain why you and almost everyone, except tmay and asdasd, keep quoting the 800 K while studiously ignoring the somewhat larger figure of 4.6 Million Android Gear smart watch sales in 2014, which together with the 400 K pebbles gives 5 million smartwatch sales? I would call stating there are links that support your position while seeing no need to be bothered posting them, rather shameful. But hey, you were only out by 4 million.
Because only about 720K Android Gear smart watches were estimated to have been sold in 2014, not 4.6 million. The 4.6 million is Canalys' estimate of the total "smart wearable band" market (which includes fitness bands from likes of Fitbit, Jawbone, Garmin, Microsoft, etc.)
The 800K is what Samsung claims it sold (or shipped, depend on who you ask) in 2013. If Canalys is correct, it means Samsung didn't sell as many Android Wear watches in 2014. Samsung hasn't announced numbers for 2014, but their Android Wear products.
Pebble says it sold 1 million watches from launch date 2013 to Dec 2014. They started shipping in Jan 2013, so that's 23 months, with 60% of their total sales in the last 10 months of 2014.
Comments
These are estimates not including 8 other countries. Also does not include Gold watches which sold out. Margins on Gold are insane and can push ASP much higher with much fewer sales.
Rumor initial run is 5 million so I predict 2 million US and 3 millions rest of world with China HK Japan taking half of that.
Raymond James analyst downgraded Apple based on "muted" reviews even though many reviewers said it was BEST smartwatch yet and would buy. Munster said sales would be flop cause supply constraints casting doubt on operations GENIUS TIm Cook. Now who has MUD on their faces! Apple making analysts look foolish for sure.
The reason most of the analysts are consistently anti-Apple is because Apple has always provided them wrong and those idiots still don't get it. They all think the are much smarter than the leaders at America's most valuable company :-)
Lets see how intellectually honest you are. Go through this thread and cite my Apple negative comments.
Dragging up the same old, tired Samsung-shipped metrics isn't particularly intellectually honest, either.
I mean, I get it, you're here to stimulate discussion... but this is the same going-around-in-circles argument circulated at every Apple product launch. If you're going to act as the Forum Contrarian, some creativity in your arguments would be nice.
Wow, a bar chart that actually adds up to 100%. Bravo!
Quote:
I literally don't care how high or low smart watch sales prove to be. They are not for me, but good luck to anyone who can find a use for one.
Calling something a useless product is as negative as it gets.
There is a good example of intellectual dishonesty, right there. I asked for a citation of Apple negative comments and you come back with my comment that was about smart watches as a class of product and was entirely brand neutral.
Care to try again?
So, what am I missing? The graphic does not match the copy.
Seems only two of us noticed this discontinuity.
.
Steve would call them bozos pulling stuff out of their butt.
Munster said watch was supply constrained and doubted operation genius Tim Cook. This is same guy who counts heads at apple store to estimate iphone sales worldwide.
Raymond James downgraded Apple based on "muted" reviews when many reviewers said it was best smartwatch yet, magical and most if not all said they would buy.
Their analysis is like something you get from high school dropouts and it is crazy they get media attention for their "insightful" (yet wrong) analysis.
Steve would call them bozos pulling stuff out of their butt.
Munster said watch was supply constrained and doubted operation genius Tim Cook. This is same guy who counts heads at apple store to estimate iphone sales worldwide.
Raymond James downgraded Apple based on "muted" reviews when many reviewers said it was best smartwatch yet, magical and most if not all said they would buy.
Their analysis is like something you get from high school dropouts and it is crazy they get media attention for their "insightful" (yet wrong) analysis.
What many people seem to not understand about analysts is that they work for investment banks and brokerage houses, and their reports are provided to their clients as advice on stock selection. They are not designed to be released to the media at all; in fact, you won't normally be able to see the entire report unless you are a client of that company. Now, I've personally never taken anyone else's advice on what stock to buy or sell, but it should be known that these affiliated analysts are not in the business of giving their clients bad advice. That would be very bad business indeed.
This is interesting:
http://www.cultofmac.com/318945/apple-watch-sport-ships-with-a-weird-tri-sectioned-band/
Apparently, buyers of the sport model don't actually get 2 complete bands with the watch - just 3 pieces, one of which is common to the choice of band size. So... bandswapper.com is less attractive than we might have thought.
I'm still curious about if/how/when third party bands will pop up, and if Apple will turn a blind eye, or aggressively try to stop them (or something in between.)
FWIW, the comments about changing one's mind on seeing the actual product is true in my household. My wife initially thought she'd like the silver sport, but switched to the space gray when she saw it in the store. I cancelled the original 38mm silver/white; ordered a 38mm grey/black. The same June delivery appeared, although I'm sure they will ship separately.
When they are wrong with pedantic analysis it makes you wonder why anyone would let them manage their money... Apple just makes them look very foolish. They belong in mailroom
For him to quote that 800k Samsung number and hiding the truth behind it, and diverting attention to me instead is just shameful.
I believe Cook has said that ?Watch sales will be lumped together with 'Other Products' so in order to get more accurate estimates of watch sales one would need to extrapolate the declining sales of iPods as well as the sales of ?TV, Airports, cases and headphones, etc. Then subtract it from the total revenue in 'Other Products' to return the figure for watches alone. I don't think one would be able to get a very accurate figure though. If sales are really amazing, perhaps Cook will reveal them but lumped together with 'Other Products' it will be difficult to say, in any meaningful way, except by comparing last year quarter 2 numbers, however the headphones will skew that comparison since last year would be pre-Beats.
You make a lot of claims, which may or may not be accurate. However, the official word seems to be there will be no sales directly from brick and mortar stores on launch day. Apple has said online orders only during the initial launch for an unspecified period of time. They seemingly do not want lines on launch day. Even many preorders are refusing to allow pickup at the store. Based on this real info, combined with the pushed ship dates on preorders, I'd say that it will be a while before someone can just walk in off the street and walk out with any ?Watch.
The one place I'm not sure this applies however are the select boutiques with which Apple has partnered. There is a strong indication from Apples own statements that those select merchants will have some stock on hand. If someone lived near one of those merchants, and had not pre-ordered yet, it might be well worth the time to stop by as soon as they open their doors on the 24th. Now that would be funny ... No lines at Apple stores, but huge crowds around conservative jewelry stores which most people never set foot in.
I was unclear in my initial post. I meant to differentiate between preorders to be delivered and in store pickups.
So if you have ZERO interest in any smartwatches what is your point making hundreds of comments about smartwatches?
What is your point? What are you trying to achive?
This is like me posting hundreds of posts about African dung bats (something I have ZERO interest in).
Again tell me what is your purpose of posting about a product you have ZERO interest in?
IMO, you are either just wasting space or trolling. Prove me wrong.
Hundreds of comments on smart watches? Given my post count and time registered on this site, it looks like I make an average of 254 comments a year. I hope you understand if I call BS on that without bothering to go and count,
Would it be like you posting hundreds of comments about Samsung products you never intend buying? When I searched under your ID and the word Samsung I get 546 hits. You wouldn't be a bit of a hypocrite would you?
If you think I am trolling report me to a moderator.
A few things to note:
1. Apple is not going to start selling something they have been pushing as hard as the Apple Watch unless they have a significant amount of inventory to make it noteworthy. They will just be shooting themselves in the foot otherwise.
2. Tim Cook is king of the supply chain and he has planned for a significant number of Apple Watches to go on sale in all the launch countries.
3. China maybe a bigger market than the US when it comes to new Apple products, Apple knows this and will have allocated at least the same number as the US if not more to China and Hong Kong. It is also logistically alot easier to deliver to China and Hong Kong.
4. These are preorders. Apple would have held back maybe half their inventory to be sold on launch day at brick and mortar stores.
5. The list of launch countries is relatively small compared to the iPhone and iPad.
This all brings up interesting questions on supply chain and the delivery process, and to comment on yours:
1. Yes, there is "significant amount of inventory" but that's subjective. Obviously there's NOT ENOUGH inventory to meet demand.
2. Yes, it is certainly planned and with CEO oversight by the "king", Tim Cook. But again, see comment #1.
3. Not sure I agree. I would think that China would not get as many aWatches as the U.S.
4. This is the most interesting question and worthy of more speculation...I wouldn't be surprised that from now on...EVERY major product launch will include online ordering only...which may be the defacto process of ordering for 3-6 months, depending on demand. Apple is becoming a type of 'amazon'...why waste space/time/$ by encouraging long wait lines at stores and having (certain low-demand models of) new products sit on shelves or at a store that happens to in a slump?... which forces a guessing game of how many/which models to deliver to each store.
Utilizing an online-only ordering system is the most efficient.
In that case, Apple may not 'allocate' any inventory for 4/24 (online or otherwise). They may simply continue fulfilling it's online ordering process...until which time (maybe 6 months from now), when demand wanes, will Apple stock shelves.
This may be exactly what Apple is doing now and forever more...all the while, tweaking factory/shipping output (as online orders are taken and analyzed). Thoughts?
Another of BF's boy-toys hijacking the thread, trying to save face. His assumption that I should waste my time on him to re-publish links that have been plastered all over the Internet and discussed countless of times on articles just prior to the Watch introduction is laughable indeed.
For him to quote that 800k Samsung number and hiding the truth behind it, and diverting attention to me instead is just shameful.
Would you like a tissue?
Can you explain why you and almost everyone, except tmay and asdasd, keep quoting the 800 K while studiously ignoring the somewhat larger figure of 4.6 Million Android Gear smart watch sales in 2014, which together with the 400 K pebbles gives 5 million smartwatch sales? I would call stating there are links that support your position while seeing no need to be bothered posting them, rather shameful. But hey, you were only out by 4 million.
You still have not explained why you post so much about a product you have ZERO interest in. Please answer the question.
And why do I post about Samsung? Maybe because they were Apple's main competition for the past 3 years? Keep your friends close and your enemies closer. I have a sizeable amount of Apple stock so of course I'm going to be concerned about Apple's competitors. But I don't go on Samsung forums and say their product sucks.
So again explain to me why you keep posting on topics about the Watch? A product you have ZERO interest in buying.
I already answered that question some 4 hours ago. You must have missed it:
So why the hell are you commenting on a thread about the Watch?
The only explanation is that you are trolling.
Ferrari forgot to invite me to purchase a Ferrari La Ferrari - that doesn't mean I am not interested in one as a topic of interest. I am extremely unlikely to buy a Samsung S6 or an iPhone 6, that doesn't mean I don't pay attention to what they are and can do. Your notion that someone should not comment on something unless they intend to buy it is quite stupid.
Long live discussion on this site. This all escalated from somebody claiming that apple have sold more than all Android watches. I think Apple will end up doing that this quarter, but not yet. CB did get the 800k figure wrong though but I doubt it was deliberate provocation.
It all escalated very quickly so let's all take a breather.
Now I think that Apple did sell 1-2 million in pre-orders in one day even though they sold out ridiculously fast, I was arguing that point a few days ago.
Apple haven't officially said anything. For some strange reason, as @mstone confirms, they have said they are going to group watch sales into an other category for now. I hope that's not going to be for ever.
No I don't think that's going to happen. Apple generally ship to channel as well as online and that's how they manage inventory. Their reports at the end of quarters are shipments to channel (including Apple stores) and shipments to customers, booked on the day of transit.
If it's online only there is no channel. That would be very odd but ... to argue against my original position , since they aren't breaking out watch sales it might be the case.
Very interesting.
Because only about 720K Android Gear smart watches were estimated to have been sold in 2014, not 4.6 million. The 4.6 million is Canalys' estimate of the total "smart wearable band" market (which includes fitness bands from likes of Fitbit, Jawbone, Garmin, Microsoft, etc.)
Source: http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2015/02/android-wear-sales-bad-compared-to-phones-ok-compared-to-other-watches/
Original Source: http://canalys.com/newsroom/over-720000-android-wear-devices-shipped-2014
The 800K is what Samsung claims it sold (or shipped, depend on who you ask) in 2013. If Canalys is correct, it means Samsung didn't sell as many Android Wear watches in 2014. Samsung hasn't announced numbers for 2014, but their Android Wear products.
Pebble says it sold 1 million watches from launch date 2013 to Dec 2014. They started shipping in Jan 2013, so that's 23 months, with 60% of their total sales in the last 10 months of 2014.