FBR is latest firm to cut iPhone 6s estimates, but expects 'mega product cycle' for 'iPhone 7'

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited December 2015
Concerns over iPhone 6s sales continue to grow on Wall Street, as FBR & Co. became the latest firm to revise its estimates downward, calling on Apple to sell 75.5 million total iPhones in the current December quarter and cutting its price target to $150.




Analyst Daniel Ives also slashed his March 2016 projections from 60 million iPhone sales to 52 million, and the June 2016 from 51 million units to 47 million. Like others before him, Ive cited vague information stemming from Apple's supply chain as an indicator that sales of the iPhone 6s series may be slower than expected.

"While 6s demand has not been stellar out of the gate relative to bullish Street expectations, we believe this near-term product transition period will ultimately lead to brighter days ahead on the shoulders of the flagship iPhone 7 release, as Apple is poised to benefit from pent-up consumer demand/mega product cycle heading into September 2016," Ives wrote.

The analyst's latest projections call for iPhone sales to be up slightly fro the 74.5 million iPhones the company shipped in the December 2014 quarter. But sales of 52 million iPhones in the March 2016 quarter would be a steep decline from the 61 million Apple shipped in the same period of 2015, while 47.5 million in June 2016 would be about flat with the year prior.

Ives and FBR join a parade of firms who have expressed concern over iPhone sales in recent weeks. The trend has been largely driven by estimates being cut by a number of key Apple suppliers.

Still, most analysts continue to be bullish on the long-term prospects for Apple, Ives and FBR included. The firm has maintained a recommended "outperform" rating.

Though Ives still believes investors should buy in, he reduced his price target on shares of AAPL from $175 to $150.




"With only 30%-plus of Apple's user base upgrading to the iPhone 6/6s to date, there is a massive green field opportunity to further penetrate its unrivaled customer base over the coming years, with China remaining the fuel in the tank for Cupertino going forward," he said.

Other investment firms that cut estimates in recent weeks include RBC Capital Markets, J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley.

Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray, meanwhile, advised investors not to worry about supplier data, indicating it's unwise reading heavily into vague estimates. His sentiment echoed statements from Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook, who said back in 2013 that investors should not read too much into supply chain data.

"The supply chain is very complex, and we obviously have multiple sources for things," Cook said. "Even if a particular data point were factual, it would be impossible to interpret that data point as to what it meant for our business."
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 54
    steviestevie Posts: 956member
    These guys are manipulating Apple's stock price.  Wall Street does not understand Apple, and so they hate Apple.
  • Reply 2 of 54
    clemynxclemynx Posts: 1,510member
    So instead of selling a gazillion they are only going to sell a bazillion. Doomed.
    wonkothesane
  • Reply 3 of 54
    Why does AI even repeat these horseshit "reports"?
    pmznolamacguySpamSandwichmdriftmeyer
  • Reply 4 of 54
    Why does AI even repeat these horseshit "reports"?
    Because they affect the stock price, which makes them newsworthy.
    muppetryacgmph
  • Reply 5 of 54
    Ok I'm confused. IF iPhone growth is slowing according to these clowns why do they think iPhone 7 is going to be some "mega product cycle"? Just because it's going to look different than the 6 aesthetically? We've heard next to no rumors about the 7, certainly nothing that would suggest it's going to be a major upgrade over the 6S. This all sounds like nonsense to me.
    bkkcanuckProf_Peabodyjz1492
  • Reply 6 of 54
    stevie said:
    These guys are manipulating Apple's stock price.  Wall Street does not understand Apple, and so they hate Apple.
    What this clown says makes no sense. He cites "pent up consumer demand" but then slashes his estimates for March and June quarters. So what is the pent up demand for then?

    The stock is up almost a buck today, go figure.
  • Reply 7 of 54
    Ok I'm confused. IF iPhone growth is slowing according to these clowns why do they think iPhone 7 is going to be some "mega product cycle"? Just because it's going to look different than the 6 aesthetically? We've heard next to no rumors about the 7, certainly nothing that would suggest it's going to be a major upgrade over the 6S. This all sounds like nonsense to me.
    Traditionally if past releases are a guide, the change in number is always a major release and not just cosmetically.

    acgmph
  • Reply 8 of 54
    pmzpmz Posts: 3,433member
    nhughes said:
    Why does AI even repeat these horseshit "reports"?
    Because they affect the stock price, which makes them newsworthy.
    Only because they are repeated. That's how it works. Not the other way around.
    latifbpSpamSandwich
  • Reply 9 of 54
    pmz said:
    nhughes said:
    Because they affect the stock price, which makes them newsworthy.
    Only because they are repeated. That's how it works. Not the other way around.
    If you really think that us, publishing these research notes hours after traders and fund managers pay money to get their hands on them, is the reason that analyst notes affect the stock price, then you are greatly overestimating the influence of AI.
    muppetryacgmphcornchip
  • Reply 10 of 54

    stevie said:
    These guys are manipulating Apple's stock price.  Wall Street does not understand Apple, and so they hate Apple.
    What this clown says makes no sense. He cites "pent up consumer demand" but then slashes his estimates for March and June quarters. So what is the pent up demand for then?

    The stock is up almost a buck today, go figure.
    There is demand but most people will rather wait for the new model to be released in September. This will lead to a lighter 2 quarters leading to the release and a much heavier few quarters after the release.
  • Reply 11 of 54
    shard said:
    Ok I'm confused. IF iPhone growth is slowing according to these clowns why do they think iPhone 7 is going to be some "mega product cycle"? Just because it's going to look different than the 6 aesthetically? We've heard next to no rumors about the 7, certainly nothing that would suggest it's going to be a major upgrade over the 6S. This all sounds like nonsense to me.
    Traditionally if past releases are a guide, the change in number is always a major release and not just cosmetically.

    Hmmm...I would argue the 5S and 6S were bigger releases in terms of the technology inside than the 5 or the 6. We've had zero rumors about the 7 other than the possibility of removing the headphone jack. So what is this alleged "pent up demand" for other than these Wall Street clowns thinking if the phone doesn't look different people won't buy it.
    latifbpcanukstormrazorpitProf_Peabody
  • Reply 12 of 54
    bobschlobbobschlob Posts: 1,074member
    Apple should just do away with "s' designation from here on out. 
    iPhone 7, to be followed by iPhone 8, 9, 10

    Wall st won't know what the heck to do.
    edited December 2015 palominerazorpit
  • Reply 13 of 54
    bobschlob said:
    Apple should just do away with "s' designation from here on out. 
    iPhone 7, to be followed by iPhone 8, 9, 10

    Wall st won't know what the fuck to do.
    "s" designation doesn't matter.  These clowns are convinced if the phone doesn't look different nobody will want it, even the non-design change years produce the best phones. One could easily argue the 5S and 6S are better than their predecessors yet all Wall Street seems to care about is looks. 
  • Reply 14 of 54
    shard said:

    What this clown says makes no sense. He cites "pent up consumer demand" but then slashes his estimates for March and June quarters. So what is the pent up demand for then?

    The stock is up almost a buck today, go figure.
    There is demand but most people will rather wait for the new model to be released in September. This will lead to a lighter 2 quarters leading to the release and a much heavier few quarters after the release.
    But they're revising down their estimates. Why did they have those estimates to begin with if its common knowledge the March and June quarters are lighter? Anyway I don't buy it. If someone is thinking about getting a new phone they're not going to say 'oh I think I'll wait 9 months' for the new model (a model that none of us know anything about). If that was really the case nobody would buy anything ever because there's always going to be a newer version. I'm just trying to understand what these clowns think is going to be mega about the 7 that will satisfy this alleged "pent up demand" that the 6S isn't. Are we going to be having this same conversation next December with analysts telling us the 7 is a disappointment but the 7S will sell gangsters?
    edited December 2015 latifbp
  • Reply 15 of 54

    sog35 said:
    Yet Tim Cook says nothing.

    He just allows Wall street Bullshitters to have free reign on this stock.

    It would literally take 5 minutes for Cook to shut these idiots up, yet he does nothing.
    I think Cook really does not care that much about the stock price. It does not effect the operation of the company. I am sure he would much prefer it be a private company at this point. It is just one of the annoying outside distractions he has to live with.
  • Reply 16 of 54
    sog35 said:
    Yet Tim Cook says nothing.

    He just allows Wall street Bullshitters to have free reign on this stock.

    It would literally take 5 minutes for Cook to shut these idiots up, yet he does nothing.
    so sick of your constant posts on this. you're borderline troll, dude. 

    Cook ALREADY HAS covered this on the earnings calls -- said very clearly not to gauge demand by vendor forecasting. already has. there is no reason for him to address it every time it happens. then they'd expect him to address any and all rumors. that isn't how Apple rolls and you know that. 

    grow up. 
    jonlmuppetrySpamSandwichmontrosemacsIanMC2lenagregoriusm
  • Reply 17 of 54

    One of the things overlooked is the iPhone Upgrade Program:
    • Unlocked carrier-agnostic iPhones
    • Upgrade to a new iPhone every year
    • Interest-free financing
    • Lower monthly rates than carriers
    • No ETA's
    We purchased 4 iPhone 6s under this program -- and each will now upgrade each model cycle.

    It is a brilliant program for Apple and the User!

    My teen-aged grandkids now have the latest iPhones -- and are learning about credit and financing because they are making the monthly payments.

    I suspect that Apple will greatly expand this program to other products and even to emerging markets such as India.

    gregoriusm
  • Reply 18 of 54
    steviestevie Posts: 956member
    kent909 said:


    I think Cook really does not care that much about the stock price. It does not effect the operation of the company. I am sure he would much prefer it be a private company at this point. It is just one of the annoying outside distractions he has to live with.
    Nobody at Apple cares that much about the stock price.  They are just trying their best to make great products.  The stock price will take care of itself.
    kent909nolamacguyIanMC2
  • Reply 19 of 54
    seems like normal product cycle stuff. get mid cycle and demand slows. release a new product and it amps up. shouldn't be trading stocks like apple on cyclical patterns.
  • Reply 20 of 54
    19831983 Posts: 1,172member
    Slightly lower than expected sales over the next few quarters, of the iPhone 6S is not that surprising. It wasn't a particularily exciting upgrade. The iPhone 7 (even if there isn't that much known about it yet) on the other hand probably will be an exciting device by comparison, and sell in even greater bucketloads! Driving AAPL stock up to record highs again. So...same old, same old until the 7S is released and the downward cycle repeats itself.
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