Analyst's 'iPhone X is dead' memo hyperbolic, loaded with questionable claims

Posted:
in iPhone edited April 2018
An analyst is arguing that Apple will completely discontinue the iPhone X this year, owing to a lack of consumer interest at the high-end. That's a highly questionable claim, even if one assumes demand isn't as strong as Apple expected.

Apple iPhone X and Face ID


Oversupply at Apple processor maker TSMC -- which recently posted a disappointing revenue forecast -- "has never been higher," Mirabaud Securities' Neil Campling said in a recent memo seen by CNBC.

From there Campling extrapolated that Apple isn't buying chips for future iPhone X production, and TSMC is burning off inventory, "because the iPhone X is dead." He blamed the situation on the $999-plus pricetag of the phone, suggesting that "consumers are turning their backs on high-priced smartphones."

There are a number of issues with Campling's contentions, beginning with the fact that in a call for Apple's December-quarter results, CEO Tim Cook said that the iPhone X had become the company's most popular iPhone, and was even the best-selling smartphone in the world during the December period.

Demand typically diminishes after the holiday shopping season, and it's conceivable that it may have fallen further still. But it would be virtually unprecedented for demand to fall so far, so fast, that Apple would decide to simply end production unexpectedly and rely on unsold inventory.

It is possible that the cost of the iPhone X has put off some shoppers. It was never intended for every iPhone buyer, which is why Apple has an iPhone in every price point from $349 all the way to $1,149 at present.

Apple might take steps to address that with upcoming devices in the fall. But to say the iPhone X is doomed on price alone is playing fast and loose with facts, because the company isn't alone on the top of the mountain. Samsung's Galaxy Note 8 starts at $950, and and a maxed-out Google Pixel 2 XL is $949. For people who utterly depend on their smartphone, the iPhone X may be worth it.

On top of everything else, Campling's memo is ignoring other possible causes of oversupply at TSMC. Apple is a major customer, but it's not the only one of significance. Morgan Stanley analysts suggest that TSMC's revenue situation may be partly based on MediaTek, and lighter demand than expected for cryptocurrency mining ASICs.

The only nugget of truth that can be mined is that the iPhone X as it stands may be a one-year phone. That may be the case, but the implication is that Apple will never go that high price-wise again because of market forces -- and that's utter nonsense.

Typically, Apple has kept the last year's pair of flagship iPhones on sale as mid-tier options for the cost-conscious. It looks like Apple could replace the iPhone X with a new trio of models, and make the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus its last-gen offerings. If that's the case, the iPhone X would be replaced with a rumored new 5.8-inch OLED iPhone. It's only April though, so it would still be early for Apple to end production on the current iPhone X, and there is zero indication that Apple has done so.

Whatever the reality of the matter, we'll probably have to wait for this fall's iPhones to get a sense for how well the iPhone X did -- that's when the company will show us by making the annual changes in its lineup.
«13

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 53
    mwhitemwhite Posts: 196member
    HAHAHAHAHA.....  Thanks for the good laugh.
    aylkmknelsonmavemufcolscornchip
  • Reply 2 of 53
    tmaytmay Posts: 3,818member
    mwhite said:
    HAHAHAHAHA.....  Thanks for the good laugh.
    This is what happens when analysts substitute meth for Adderall.


    lkruppmwhitemagman1979pscooter63chasmolscornchipwatto_cobra
  • Reply 3 of 53
    Stupid analysts...

    One day one of these analysts will be right, and their record will improve to 1/1000.

    I wonder how you get into that profession...  

    Is there a BS degree offered somewhere? (No, not Bachelor of Science)
    SnickersMagoomwhiteanantksundarammagman1979Kuyangkohradarthekatolscornchip1983jony0
  • Reply 4 of 53
    FranculesFrancules Posts: 110member
    I think the iPhone X is a remarkable device since the iPhone 4. It’s futuristic design still holds a nostalgic feel. I love it & i love all the folks @ apple. 🖖 
    perpetual3caladanianmagman1979radarthekatchasmolscornchipjony0watto_cobra
  • Reply 5 of 53
    eideardeideard Posts: 391member
     +1
    magman1979olswatto_cobra
  • Reply 6 of 53
    KuyangkohKuyangkoh Posts: 333member
    I bet you this anal__list owed android phones and never owned iphonex. Or better yet they are paid to make unverified fake news.
    i will never ever use thier services to manipulate my stocks...come on go find a job you worthless pieces of...you know what i mean. Hahahahaha 
    olswatto_cobra
  • Reply 7 of 53
    Jeffc73Jeffc73 Posts: 1unconfirmed, member
    I think the iPhone x is a nice looking phone that was needed for Apple to shake things up in an Android dominated world. But If they were to make some minor changes to a few default apps like the browser, email , and maps, the would attract some android users. I have use my wife's iphone and overall there is nothing "wrong" with it but these few things that I can't change on it make me use android. I am a power user who takes advantages of widgets, shortcuts, and a whole lot of things the iphone can't do good and that is one reason, but if I could use chrome, gmail, and google maps since that is what I use at work on Windows desktop on an iphone with seamless integration like composing a new email would bring up gmail not apple mail then I may have bought one a few years ago and switched. Too late now. My samsung s8+ does everything I need and the design is awesome. ( not perfect though). No phone will be perfect. Bring itunes and imessage as paid apps to android and I would buy them.
    xzu
  • Reply 8 of 53
    An analyst is arguing that Apple will completely discontinue the iPhone X this year, owing to a lack of consumer interest at the high-end. That's a highly questionable claim, even if one assumes demand isn't as strong as Apple expected.
    See that bandwagon... Move over inside another analyist wants to climb onboard.

    I have to wonder how many professional shorters got a sneak preview of the memo before it was released?
    Just wondering you understand.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 9 of 53
    tmaytmay Posts: 3,818member
    Jeffc73 said:
    I think the iPhone x is a nice looking phone that was needed for Apple to shake things up in an Android dominated world. But If they were to make some minor changes to a few default apps like the browser, email , and maps, the would attract some android users. I have use my wife's iphone and overall there is nothing "wrong" with it but these few things that I can't change on it make me use android. I am a power user who takes advantages of widgets, shortcuts, and a whole lot of things the iphone can't do good and that is one reason, but if I could use chrome, gmail, and google maps since that is what I use at work on Windows desktop on an iphone with seamless integration like composing a new email would bring up gmail not apple mail then I may have bought one a few years ago and switched. Too late now. My samsung s8+ does everything I need and the design is awesome. ( not perfect though). No phone will be perfect. Bring itunes and imessage as paid apps to android and I would buy them.
    From your post, I'm not seeing why you should, or would, be interested in any iPhone. It's apparent that you have no current connection to Apple's ecosystem, other than your wife having an iPhone.

    "Too late now" as you state, but thank you for your civil tone; it's a rarity for new posters.


    edited April 2018 macseekermuthuk_vanalingampeterhartolscornchip1983watto_cobra
  • Reply 10 of 53
    SoliSoli Posts: 8,975member
    The increased ASP shows that consumer interest is high, but they could kill the iPhone X like they killed the original iPhone. In many ways this model is like the original iPhone so I wouldn’t be surprised if that happened, but I also see no evidence that it will be completely doscpntinued for a better and more cost effective design.
    muthuk_vanalingamwatto_cobra
  • Reply 11 of 53
    blastdoorblastdoor Posts: 1,929member
    Well, I will say this -- I have no interest in paying a price premium just to get an OLED screen. 

    But I'm always very interested in a better camera and am willing to pay for that. 

    watto_cobra
  • Reply 12 of 53
    Read this article before panici g about tsmc report. They are actually forcasting growth... but the media/anal-cyst manipulations and fud are making it sound like doomsday... ( when will bull shit anal-cyst be held accountable for spreading FUD. ) http://www.patentlyapple.com/patently-apple/2018/04/the-media-unjustifiably-points-the-finger-at-apple-for-bringing-down-tsmcs-second-half-forecasted-profits-for-2018.html
    tmaycornchipwatto_cobra
  • Reply 13 of 53
    tmaytmay Posts: 3,818member
    Soli said:
    The increased ASP shows that consumer interest is high, but they could kill the iPhone X like they killed the original iPhone. In many ways this model is like the original iPhone so I wouldn’t be surprised if that happened, but I also see no evidence that it will be completely doscpntinued for a better and more cost effective design.
    I'm in agreement that Apple will replace the current X with a new LCD model rather that reprice it as an entry level X model. Remaining stock at the release of the new models would obviously require a discount, and likely would only be available via Apple stores.

    My intuition is that FaceID components have evolved rapidly, as have the OLED screens, so there is likely enough cost reduction to make it worthwhile to replace the current X.


    cornchip1983
  • Reply 14 of 53
    78Bandit78Bandit Posts: 232member
    While the iPhone X (2017) may turn out to be a one-year device, I think there is pretty much zero chance we won't see an iPhone X2 (XS?).  The X may or may not be selling as many as originally anticipated but it certainly is selling at a rate that is very profitable.  Besides, the second generation is typically the same hardware design with performance improvements so Apple's investment in engineering and production capability will be minimal this time.

    I do think pricing this fall will tell a lot about what actual sales have been.  If they keep the $999 price point for the 5.8" device then it is a pretty safe assumption sales were very good.  OTOH, if we see $899 or even $849 for the 5.8" and under $1K for the 6.4" devices then it is possible Apple is thinking price was a hindrance and a lower price will sell many more devices.
    cornchip
  • Reply 15 of 53
    Mike WuertheleMike Wuerthele Posts: 4,642administrator
    Read this article before panici g about tsmc report. They are actually forcasting growth... but the media/anal-cyst manipulations and fud are making it sound like doomsday... ( when will bull shit anal-cyst be held accountable for spreading FUD. ) http://www.patentlyapple.com/patently-apple/2018/04/the-media-unjustifiably-points-the-finger-at-apple-for-bringing-down-tsmcs-second-half-forecasted-profits-for-2018.html
    Problem with that, is they were forecasting growth this quarter too, when they reported that they missed estimates by $1B. 

    They've got massive capex going on too, while saying that they're cutting costs to keep profits up. I guess we'll see.
  • Reply 16 of 53
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    Who needs facts when you can crap out garbage all day long.

    This will prove FALSE, they know it, and we know it, yet they spew on.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 17 of 53
    tmaytmay Posts: 3,818member
    78Bandit said:
    While the iPhone X (2017) may turn out to be a one-year device, I think there is pretty much zero chance we won't see an iPhone X2 (XS?).  The X may or may not be selling as many as originally anticipated but it certainly is selling at a rate that is very profitable.  Besides, the second generation is typically the same hardware design with performance improvements so Apple's investment in engineering and production capability will be minimal this time.

    I do think pricing this fall will tell a lot about what actual sales have been.  If they keep the $999 price point for the 5.8" device then it is a pretty safe assumption sales were very good.  OTOH, if we see $899 or even $849 for the 5.8" and under $1K for the 6.4" devices then it is possible Apple is thinking price was a hindrance and a lower price will sell many more devices.
    https://techpinions.com/top-takeaways-from-studying-iphone-x-owners/52639

    I hardly ever see great stuff available outside of his paywall, but this certainly is, and a hat tip to Ben for letting the rest of us see this.
    jax44jax44electrosoftwatto_cobra
  • Reply 18 of 53
    BluntBlunt Posts: 224member
    Jeffc73 said:
    I think the iPhone x is a nice looking phone that was needed for Apple to shake things up in an Android dominated world.  My samsung s8+ does everything I need and the design is awesome. ( not perfect though).

    An Android dominated world? In what sense? Profits? No. Apps? No. Also, I study a lot of webshop data and iOS is way more importent when you are selling stuff. So Android dominated world my ass.

    You think that Samsings design are awesome. I don't think so. I don't like there phones and their software sucks. But hey you are using Windows an OS I would never use out of freewill.
    cornchipwatto_cobra
  • Reply 19 of 53
    barthrhbarthrh Posts: 87member
    blastdoor said:
    Well, I will say this -- I have no interest in paying a price premium just to get an OLED screen. 

    But I'm always very interested in a better camera and am willing to pay for that. 

    I just got one and I have to say that a few weeks in it has exceeded expectations. I agree that OLED isn't enough; the screen in my 6S looked great. But Face ID is really, really good. It's so transparent. Whether using the core phone functionality, 1Password or Apple Pay, it just works and you don't notice it. I also much prefer the new swipe gestures over the home button and other swipes. The larger screen with only a minor device size increase is nice. The edge to edge screen is just icing on the cake.
    cornchipwatto_cobra
  • Reply 20 of 53
    clarker99clarker99 Posts: 206member
    The price of the X is not a problem. It is a lazy narrative. It sold very well and earned a lot of the industry profits.

    IMO, the lengthening of the upgrade cycle from 2yrs to 3-4yrs is a bigger concern.  Also, the 2nd hand and hand me down market for iPhone is huge. 1 person upgrades and they sell or hand down the old phone to spouses, kids, parents and friends. And then they hand down their old device to someone else. In 3yrs? Rinse, repeat. My dad hasn’t bought a new phone in over 6 years.

    The battery replacement for $25 is also gonna impact upgrades. It has been very popular since the turn of the year. Cheap way to keep your phone for another 2yrs. Esp, the iPhone 6 and 6s models. They are still very capable devices. I have a 6 and a 6s Plus that my kids use (hand me down) and closer to the end of the year I will replace the battery on both devices. Boom, 2-3 more years out of devices that are already 2-3yrs old. 4-6 yr cycle.  

    Saying that they still sell 200+ million iPhones a year.

    electrosoftcornchipwatto_cobra
Sign In or Register to comment.