Nearly half of iPhone owners plan to upgrade, survey says

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in iPhone
Survey of 530 iPhone customers by Loup Ventures sees nearly half seeking to upgrade in the next year, meaning overall iPhone sales could end up higher than expected.

Loup Ventures' intent to purchase survey


A new survey by Loup Ventures ahead of the arrival of this year's iPhone lineup found that 48 percent of current iPhone owners plan to upgrade in the next year. That number compares to 25 percent when the survey was taken in June of 2017.

While authors Gene Munster and Will Thompson note that the survey result is an outlier, they believe that the survey is nonetheless "a positive indicator of upcoming iPhone demand," one that could deliver three percent unit growth in FY19. Wall Street consensus sees flat growth.

In addition, of those surveyed who plan to get iPhones, 42 percent say they'll buy one from the 2018 line, 18 precent say they'll opt for an iPhone X. And 19 percent of current Android phone owners said they plan to switch to an iPhone in the next year.

"iPhone is entering a period of stability (0% to 5% unit growth for the next several years, driven by 805m+ active iPhones with a high (90%) retention rate," the authors wrote. "Assuming a 3.5-year upgrade cycle and a 90% retention rate implies 207m iPhones sold each year, slightly below the Street's 219m expected in FY18 and FY19."

While Loup Ventures has been putting forward the idea this year that services will become an ever-larger part of Apple's future, Munster has been bullish on iPhone sales as well.

Apple is expected to unveil three new iPhones, most likely in the second week of September. Current speculation suggests there to be two updated OLED models, measuring 6.5-inches and 5.8-inches, along with a lower-specification 6.1-inch LCD variant, with all having physical designs similar to the iPhone X.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 60
    Cesar Battistini MazieroCesar Battistini Maziero Posts: 198unconfirmed, member
    I really need an upgrade! 

    My 6 is working great, but I WANT to upgrade so bad!
    claire1bb-15lolliverGeorgeBMaccornchipwatto_cobrajony0
  • Reply 2 of 60
    larryjwlarryjw Posts: 832member
    Are there any numbers for how many, what percentage, of iPhone owners use the iPhone Upgrade Option? That would give a floor on the yearly upgrades. 
    albegarcwatto_cobra
  • Reply 3 of 60
    Especially high given that iOS 12 will breathe some new life into older devices.
    anton zuykovalbegarclolliverwatto_cobra
  • Reply 4 of 60
    dewmedewme Posts: 3,815member
    I really need an upgrade! 

    My 6 is working great, but I WANT to upgrade so bad!
    Same here. I suspect many 6/6+ owners will upgrade. The 6+ especially was and still is a great phone for the long haul with plenty of speed, great camera, and a big battery. The 6s/7/8 were all okay, but weren't remarkably different than the 6/6+. We've now seen what the future looks like with the X and it's been normalized. Apple usually does a really good job of refining with follow-ups to new designs. So, unless something unusual happens with the next round of iPhone releases a lot of folks are going to pull the trigger this fall. It's gonna be a big one, perhaps even a really big one, or both.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 5 of 60
    bb-15bb-15 Posts: 283member
    I really need an upgrade! 

    My 6 is working great, but I WANT to upgrade so bad!
    I’m in the same situation.
    The 6 is very good but the X has a bigger screen in about the same form factor.
    By the end of the year I’ll probably be shopping for the new, ~$100 cheaper version of the 5.8 inch iPhone X.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 6 of 60
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 5,901member
    My wife is a possible upgrader. From an iPhone 6. 
  • Reply 7 of 60
    sflocalsflocal Posts: 5,730member
    I upgraded from an iPhone 6 to an iPX back in April.  I was really impressed with the tech improvements between the two models.  My iP6 just seemed archaic by comparison.  Would never go back now. :)

    watto_cobra
  • Reply 8 of 60
    So we’re entering a super cycle of upgrades from the IPhone 6s...

    My 6s has another few years, but i’m not surprised by the stats.  We’ll see if the price point causes people to delay their purchase...

    Doing a poll before the pricing is announced is likely to inflate the actual numbers.  I’m sure analysts will be thrilled to say Apple isn’t meeting expectations... 
    cornchipwatto_cobra
  • Reply 9 of 60
    I have a 7+ and I am planing to upgrade. Maybe to an 8+ if the rumored 6.1 screen has no better specs than the 8+.
  • Reply 10 of 60
    NY1822NY1822 Posts: 621member
    on the 6s, did not upgrade to the X bc there is no apple battery case for that model...and I'm not interested in 3rd party cases. 
    edited August 2018 cornchipwatto_cobra
  • Reply 11 of 60
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 9,456member
    But, but, but an analyst says the iPhone X is too popular and will kill the upgrade cycle. He downgraded the stock to “sell” and put a target price of $145.00 even though AAPL is trading at an all time high today of $222.00 today. Apple is Doomed™
    albegarctoysandmejonagoldbaconstangwatto_cobra
  • Reply 12 of 60
    spouse has a 6 and i have a 7, both probably jump to a x, should deals happen after new models announced 
    toysandmewatto_cobra
  • Reply 13 of 60
    irelandireland Posts: 17,751member
    Nearly half of those surveyed plan to. Not have all iPhone owners. Big differences. 
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 14 of 60
    larryjw said:
    Are there any numbers for how many, what percentage, of iPhone owners use the iPhone Upgrade Option? That would give a floor on the yearly upgrades. 
    That is a very good question. I am planing to update but just because I have the upgdate option with my carrier, otherwise it would be out of the questions.

  • Reply 15 of 60
    As long as the prices are near the thousand dollar range, I will use my 6 until it dies. Apple has slowly made the iPhone into a gimmick toy. They take way touch ID and the headphone jack and replace it face ID and bluetooth capabilities. No thank you!
     
    albegarc
  • Reply 16 of 60
    ireland said:
    Nearly half of those surveyed plan to. Not have all iPhone owners. Big differences. 
    Are you saying that you think only 250 upgrades are going to happen? ... you understand how surveys work, right? ;) ;) 

    That said, I think the sample group should have been about 10x larger to get an accurate reading... a survey group of 500 just isn't a good enough sampling.
    edited August 2018 toysandmewatto_cobra
  • Reply 17 of 60
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,033member
    Ah, a lot of that article makes no sense. First of all, that’s just a USA based survey. Second, it’s small, and the error could easily be plus minus 7%. In addition, about 60% of smartphone users here use Android. If we look at the number of people here with iPhones, the number of Android going to upgrade, with 19% moving to iPhone, then sales in the USA should increase by over 25%.

    if there is any kind of similarity anywhere else, though at a lower level overall, I would expect to see iPhone sales to move up by at least 10%. I don’t see these lower sales numbers at all.
    muthuk_vanalingamwatto_cobra
  • Reply 18 of 60
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 33,408member
    Will probably upgrade to the previous generation iPhone when the new ones come out. You get the best deal on a still great phone.
    albegarcmuthuk_vanalingamwatto_cobra
  • Reply 19 of 60
    Patiently awaiting for Apple to release so I can upgrade from my 6s. 
    SpamSandwichwatto_cobra
  • Reply 20 of 60
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,427member
    melgross said:
    Ah, a lot of that article makes no sense. First of all, that’s just a USA based survey. Second, it’s small, and the error could easily be plus minus 7%. In addition, about 60% of smartphone users here use Android. If we look at the number of people here with iPhones, the number of Android going to upgrade, with 19% moving to iPhone, then sales in the USA should increase by over 25%.

    if there is any kind of similarity anywhere else, though at a lower level overall, I would expect to see iPhone sales to move up by at least 10%. I don’t see these lower sales numbers at all.
    More than half of smartphone users in the U.S. are currently using iOS; you are confusing users with current sales.

    That's the result of all of those legacy iPhones that are still in use, thank you very much.
    albegarctoysandmecornchipwatto_cobra
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