Once the market within the next 5 years starts getting flooded with cheaper chinese-made LCDs and plasma TVs, thinner, bigger, better, brighter, sharper, etc, etc, and prices come down, high-def will truly start to reach Joe Sixpack.... some people have gone so far as to say the switch from analog standard def to say digital 1080p high def will be like going from black and white tv to color tv.
5 years from now there will be 80 million PS3s in homes. If HD-DVD has to wait that long before people start buying players, then there will be no point.
The HD-DVD camp should give up and start trying for the next generation past this one, maybe with 200GB disks or something.
"We have been intrigued by the broad support of Blu-Ray, especially the key advantage of including Blu-Ray in PlayStation 3," Lesinski said in a statement.
"After more detailed assessment and new data on cost, manufacturability and copy protection solutions, we have now made the decision to move ahead with the Blu-ray format."
And Finally,
"Several execs in each camp believe the Paramount announcement to publish in both formats?which is the direction Warner has been leaning for the past week or two with a similar announcement expected this week?is simply a temporary face-saving strategy and that ultimately all studios will shift completely over to Blu-ray by launch time."
Wasn't it Webmail who predicted Paramount would switch?...Good call. Also, regarding...
What if people buy a game player to ...newsflash..play games??? It's pretty obvious that Microsoft could easily and most likely will choose to utilize HD-DVD in the near enough future.
Yup they most certainly will, but LOOK! Haa, it plays High Definition movies too,...now I don't have to buy that $1000 HD-DVD player. That will be the response from the majority of consumers.
Just answer me this one question. How is Blu-Ray going to win against a cheaper competitor that has every bit of the same quality? History shows that it is "your" scenario which is grim.
Is it really the same quality? I don't think it is when all I'm reading regarding the picture quality of HD-DVD is that it will be 1080i. Blu-Ray will be 1080p. And please, don't give me statements from Amir from Microsoft to the contrary in a Arstechnica forum. We already know Microsoft and its pundits like the "industry vets within the pressing industry" as you so call them, were referenced by a Microsoft employee Ribas. So really the question is, who are you going to believe Microsoft, or the several hundred hardware companies that give "broad support" referenced by the now changed Paramount president.
I think the picture is indeed getting clearer, with the exception for those who have an utter distaste for Sony despite their backing by the majority of hardware manufacturers and now...movie studios.
5 years from now there will be 80 million PS3s in homes. If HD-DVD has to wait that long before people start buying players, then there will be no point.
The HD-DVD camp should give up and start trying for the next generation past this one, maybe with 200GB disks or something.
Market penetration isn't everything.
DVD-Audio and SACD players are everywhere. But yet, where are the discs?
DVD-Audio and SACD players are everywhere. But yet, where are the discs?
Good point - both formats have a hill to climb, but the HD-DVD one is much higher. Market penetration is a nessessary but not sufficient criteria for software sales success - Blu-ray will have it and HD-DVD will not.
So Blu-ray has a small chance, while HD-DVD has no chance at all. Most likely situation is that normal DVD reigns supreme, just like the CD is.
hmurcensen - are you planning to buy one of the initial release $1000 HD-DVD players in Janruary? Even if I wanted to buy one, I think I would wait until the format war is won - if enough people think like me unit sales could go from "very little" to "none at all". There is a lot of stuff coming out about then competing for our home theater dollars (dvdo V30, xbox 360, ps3, hard drive psp, plasma tvs etc).
All arguments that deal with equipment costs are very speculative. No one has released real numbers, as far as I know, so there's no real cost bearing. It's also uncertain if the difference in line costs makes much difference, particularly when considering how a new line figures into accounting versus an old line that has been retrofitted. I think you should get off the point of line costs, since it doesn't seem like a big deal to me, given that I know how a $2M RFID transponder assembly line amortizes while selling much lower cost units. To boot, only the big players will be making HD discs for the first phase, so it will probably take a longer time for the line cost issue to play out than it will for the player market.
Read the thread, Rick claims no allegiance to any of the formats but from his perspective within the industry he doesn't see Blu-Ray being affordable. That's a salient issue. Money is always an issue and Blu-Ray just isn't competitive here.
HD-DVD doesn't require Big Players it requires a rather paltry $200k upgrade to your line. The facts are clear that HD-DVD is the far cheaper solution and no-one backing Blu-Ray has rebutted this with any efficacy.
I've read that production negotions will go down to the half penny for large loads. That's not even taking into consideration any speed differences. HD-DVD should lead here because no spincoat is needed and the yields should be high.
Rumor has it that spincoating isn't working for the protective layer meaning plants may have to go to film. That's $$$$$ and time.
Economies of scale arguements will not work here. HD-DVD will offer the same quality via the same codecs coupled with proven plant lines. Blu-Ray doesn't even have their DL mastering system functional yet.
Note Sony's silence about BDROM and the PS3.
AFAIC whether Paramount, Universal, Warner yadda yadda yadda decide to make BDROM is inconsequential. HD-DVD is the cheaper solution by far and that automatically gives them a leg up.
The media manufacturing industry is on the verge of another milestone in its history. The introduction of the next-generation format of the optical disc is imminent, and I take a tremendous amount of satisfaction in having participated in the entertainment industry?s participation in this format, from the introduction of the CD in 1982 and a decade later with DVD, as Senior Vice President and General Manager of Warner Advanced Media Operations (WAMO), where I led WAMO management and engineering as it developed and marketed the DVD format worldwide. I was later the CEO of Ritek Global Media and President of Deluxe Global Media Services. That?s why I feel that I have to speak out at this point. In order for people and companies to invest enormous amounts of money, effort and intellectual capital developing new products and formats that will move the industry forward, they need accurate information and data to make an informed, objective assessment. And as someone intimately familiar with the economics of physical media manufacturing, I can tell you that the numbers I?m seeing ? or more importantly, not seeing -- don?t add up for a proven manufacturing process The rate of DVD sales is beginning to flatten. That?s inevitable, as it is with any format over time, and the average price of DVD discs continues to decline, as it would with any commodity product. At the same time, major film studios continue to reap increasingly larger percentages of their profits from DVD home video sales. Why, at this critical time of transition, would an entire industry want to radically alter its manufacturing infrastructure, incurring massive new tooling capital costs and a huge new learning curve in the process? The Blu-ray Disc Association (BDA) has long asserted that its Blu-ray (BD) format is superior to the rival HD DVD format, and BD?s ?revolutionary? buzz has understandably caught the fancy of certain technologists. But it should scare CEOs,
1-1/2.05 2
because what the BDA does not sufficiently address is what lies behind those assertions. The numbers are stark: manufacturing BD discs will require an estimated $1.7 million cost per manufacturing line. Per line! Then, each major manufacturing facility would require the implementation of a minimum of two mastering systems, at a minimum cost of $2 million per system. DVD, at the height of its success, resulted in an estimated 600 manufacturing lines globally. Even allowing for a decline in systems costs over time as the manufacturing base expanded, the tab for radically overhauling the media manufacturing industry would approach a billion dollars worldwide or more. Already-beleaguered CFOs will be challenged to raise ?and risk ? this significant amount of capital. Compare this to the estimated cost of retooling for the HD DVD format compared to BD ROM. HD DVD is able to utilize virtually the entire existing manufacturing infrastructure. The cost of upgrading an existing DVD line is about $150,000 ? less than a tenth the cost of a BD line. A DVD mastering system can be upgraded for $145,000. Basically, HD DVD is a DVD-9 ? a version of DVD we have enormous manufacturing experience with already ? with a denser pit structure. The manufacturing process of the BD format is not fully evolved. For instance, there remains a significant debate regarding the best way to create the 0.1-mm layer that forms the top layer of the disc. Both BD and HD DVD offer content owners and consumers dramatically larger amounts of digital real estate, which will be necessary to match the high-definition programming that is the future of entertainment media. But the BD format will require an already strained manufacturing base to invest massive amounts of capital in new manufacturing technology even as disagreements about just what that technology is rages around them. If consumer demand for HD is what projections predict, the simple fact is
1-1/2.05 3
that BD will not allow the manufacturing base to retool fast enough to keep up with the demand curve. Furthermore, there is little in the way of statistical verification of any actual production data for BD. Major disc manufacturers are still far from collecting statistically-significant samples with BD production lines that prove that BD ROM can be mass produced in a typical 6-sigma capable process, and there is virtually no previous experience upon which to base manufacturing. High production demand on an unstable manufacturing process significantly increases the risk of consumer failures. On top of that, those same replicators will still have to continue to operate their existing DVD lines as the market makes its transition from standard-definition formats to high-definition ones, even as that same market continues to mature and experience ever-tighter profit margins. You don?t need a degree in engineering or economics to realize that this is a recipe for disaster. On the other hand, there is a wealth of manufacturing data available on DVD, virtually all of which is applicable to HD DVD manufacturing. DVD and HD DVD can be manufactured on the same line with only minor adjustments. This enables replicators to maximize the productivity of their equipment, altering it to the ebb and flow of demand for either format. Strong home video titles require the ability to manufacture huge quantities of discs in a very tight time window. Failure to meet that demand because the industry is struggling to learn and refine manufacturing on a radically new format can not only jeopardize the sales of that title ? it can strangle an entire industry that depends on hit titles. Inability to meet demand could ultimately sink the format and vastly diminish consumer confidence in any new format. As we?ve learned, new formats drive this industry in the long term.
1-1/2.05 4
With HD DVD, we understand all the critical variables in manufacturing discs already. That verifiable productivity means that the cost of manufacturing the format is estimated to be only 15 to 20 percent higher than that of standard DVD. Given all this information, why risk the fortunes of an entire industry on a potentially disruptive, incompletely tested format when a highly reliable evolutionary format, one already familiar to tens of millions of consumers, is readily available? The amount of time, money and effort to so dramatically alter the manufacturing infrastructure has been substantially underestimated for BD. In fact, it?s responsible for delaying the roll-out of a much-needed upgrade for the home video industry, and has in effect held a portion of the industry resources hostage as a result. Thus, it?s disingenuous to suggest, as some in the BD camp have, that the competition is over. Once people realize the hidden costs of the Blu-ray format, they will also realize the extent to which it actually endangers their very industry. Blu-ray is the Emperor?s New Clothes ? it advances the agendas of a few select companies instead of the market?s and that of the consumer. No one ? the studios, the disc manufacturers, the consumer electronics manufacturers ? can afford a format war today. Consumers want a format that?s familiar and reliable. Shareholders want to see unhindered growth in packaged media, which remains a multi-billion-dollar-a-year industry. Game developers are targeting home video demographics. Cable and satellite delivery is betting big on high definition. HD DVD offers predictable, reliable manufacturing; high capacity; predictable, manageable costs; verifiable quality, enormous familiarity worldwide, and billions of dollars that the consumer will not have to pay that will instead be converted into profits for the entire home video entertainment industry. Even the name of the format is highly consumer-friendly -- any brand marketer will tell you that it would
1-1/2.05 5
take millions of ad dollars and years of promotion for Blu-ray to build the caliber of brand equity enjoyed by a familiar sounding HD DVD brand. We got DVD right and it gave the entertainment media industry a windfall. Right now, the process of introducing the next generation of entertainment media is spinning dangerously out of control and we are running out of time. Consumers are fickle. We better make sure we get HD right. # # #
From Rick Marquart
HD-DVD will be at worst even odds with BD based on just 2 advantages.
1. Cheaper manufacturing costs
2. Microsoft and Intel support
I don't really need to say much more. Eventually the rubber meets the road and stuff has to be purchased and when that race starts HD-DVD's cheaper costs pull ahead. Sometimes companies don't "get it" until those first bills hit their Accounts Payable
But once again, we're back to the fact that current DVDs can already fit HD movies. Cheap players can play these movies. Yet hollywood hasn't gone that route.
Full resolution HD, or HD sources, compressed down to SD resolution? What codecs are used? Links?
You keep saying this, but don't show any links to the DVD players. If this is truly the case, I am in the market for a new DVD player, and wouldn't mind picking up one of these.
This player will play just about any file off of just about anything. Disc, LAN, or even iPod.
[edit: It currently doesn't support h.264 but the firmware could be updated to do so]
All this while hollywood is actively sabotaging such efforts rather than helping them along. If only hollywood would endorse these products... we'd already have HD movies.
You see, it isn't technology that we're waiting on.
HD-DVD will be at worst even odds with BD based on just 2 advantages.
1. Cheaper manufacturing costs
2. Microsoft and Intel support
I don't really need to say much more. Eventually the rubber meets the road and stuff has to be purchased and when that race starts HD-DVD's cheaper costs pull ahead. Sometimes companies don't "get it" until those first bills hit their Accounts Payable
You still have not addressed how HD-DVD will do vs regular DVD. I don't see how HD-DVD can gain a foothold in a DVD world.
You keep saying that HD-DVD has a chance, but without massive hardware deployment it really has no chance at all. How are you going to get 10 million (or even 10,000) people to buy a HD-DVD player?
It seems like in the links you post, there's a lot said about the potential for equipment costs to be amortized quickly. Also, this guy Rick is indeed a market expert (so it seems), but in the end it's just more hearsay.
The possibility that blu-ray may succeed, even if only published by big houses, and that smaller houses may find ways to improve the video on standard DVDs is also an interesting topic. Lastly, it's worth considering that the next upgrade may only require a small cash outlay to modify 1st gen blu-ray to 2nd gen, whereas retooled DVD lines may have to be scrapped, etc.
At some point, there's no way to get around the situation of semiconductor fabs, where smaller companies lease time on big lines since the equipment cost is ridiculously prohibitive.
many people underestimate toshiba's drive manufacturing capability. They've been pretty active with optical drives of quality since the advent of computer DVD rom drives. I think they'll be fine and I think that some Korean companies like Samsung will be jumping into the fray. The money is there.
I have no doubt that Microsoft will create an HD-DVD based Xbox as well. The two companies have become far too chummy over recent times to think otherwise.
Toshiba has stated they will ship some laptop models with HD-DVD as well.
many people underestimate toshiba's drive manufacturing capability. They've been pretty active with optical drives of quality since the advent of computer DVD rom drives. I think they'll be fine and I think that some Korean companies like Samsung will be jumping into the fray. The money is there.
I have no doubt that Microsoft will create an HD-DVD based Xbox as well. The two companies have become far too chummy over recent times to think otherwise.
Toshiba has stated they will ship some laptop models with HD-DVD as well.
Producing an HD-DVD xbox 360 will be a kick in the nutz to early adopters. Two things will happen:
1) Rabid fans might go out and buy the second-gen xbox 360 (these people really have no life and have way too much money...or live in a shack as a result of spending every dime they have on shitty consoles.)
2) Some will be so disgusted by the move that they'll probably just buy a Blu-Ray DVD to spite MS and HD-DVD.
One thing's for sure though...not including HD-DVD in the initial release of the xbox 360 will hurt HD-DVD...and including it later may hurt it more.
One thing's for sure though...not including HD-DVD in the initial release of the xbox 360 will hurt HD-DVD...and including it later may hurt it more.
I think it means that few to none of the 360 games will be on HD-DVD. Computer game makers still seem to lothe the idea of requiring DVD drives to install PC games. That means any large games will far more likely be put onto multiple discs rather than a single HD-DVD.
many people underestimate toshiba's drive manufacturing capability. They've been pretty active with optical drives of quality since the advent of computer DVD rom drives. I think they'll be fine and I think that some Korean companies like Samsung will be jumping into the fray. The money is there.
I have no doubt that Microsoft will create an HD-DVD based Xbox as well. The two companies have become far too chummy over recent times to think otherwise.
Toshiba has stated they will ship some laptop models with HD-DVD as well.
So movie pressing houses and high-definition DVD players will be absolutely unimportant in this battle.
It will be a race to see who can provide the most high definition game consoles and computer drives. Once people start to care about high definition movies in a few years time, whoever won the computer/console race will be the movie format just out of inertia.
Blu-ray has the console business sewn up, because I can't see any advantage of adding a HD-DVD drive to the 360 after launch. The computer drive race is still up in the air, but I think that the console is more important for movie crossover, because it will already be in the living room (where the computer probably won't be).
Producing an HD-DVD xbox 360 will be a kick in the nutz to early adopters
Offer an upgrade. There are plenty of people that would be refurb Xbox 360s for a song.
Quote:
One thing's for sure though...not including HD-DVD in the initial release of the xbox 360 will hurt HD-DVD...and including it later may hurt it more.
Negative invariably having choice is better than lack of choice. Simply offer a two tiered system in which people can get a $300 Xbox or $500 Xbox. Those who purchased the initial xbox and want the Xbox HD will have a certain time to upgrade. Problem solved.
e1618978
I'm curious to see whether the PS3 can dominate. Pricing is going to be important and I believe that out of the rumored 10 million purchases only half will be initially interested in playing movies on their PS3. If you're playing a movie you can't be playing a game. That's an issue no matter which way you cut it.
Microsoft has to take the Xbox and go HD and add some features that tie into Win CE OS. If they can't beat Sony at this game they should be embarassed because Sony is likely one of the worst software companies on the planet. Leverage Microsoft IP and Windows Media and you have a capable PS3 competitor.
For the home video market the battle will be pretty straight forward. Remember that there is absolutely no difference in picture quality between the two formats; nothing on screen will differentiate the two disc types. The equation is simple, whoever can get the most video titles into the stores first will win.
If they can't beat Sony at this game they should be embarassed because Sony is likely one of the worst software companies on the planet. Leverage Microsoft IP and Windows Media and you have a capable PS3 competitor.
Sony's job is a lot easier, since IBM has already made dozens of optimized Linux ports to the Cell. Last I checked, the PS3 was to run a brand of Linux/GNU, which instantly makes the PS3 pretty flexible.
I'm curious to see whether the PS3 can dominate. Pricing is going to be important and I believe that out of the rumored 10 million purchases only half will be initially interested in playing movies on their PS3. If you're playing a movie you can't be playing a game. That's an issue no matter which way you cut it.
I play both games and movies on my PS2 - have done so ever since I realised that the picture was better than my $1000 DVD player. I don't see why it is an issue - you can only do one thing at once. The PS3 game demos blew away the 360 demos, and the game list is awesome (200 or so titles in the first year). People are really looking forward to both systems, I don't think that either will have any problem selling millions of units per year.
Even if only half of the PS3 buyers play movies - how can HD-DVD compete with 3-5 million people in the first year?
I will be buying both a 360 and a PS3. When I watch movies, I will pick the one that looks the best for a particular disk (DVD or Blu-ray, whatever). What I won't do, and I don't know anyone who will either, is buy a 3rd box for playing movies.
I also will not upgrade the drive in my 360 - why bother when all games will have to come out in DVD format, or else lose a big chunk of the 360 installed base? This is why an upgrade would never work - nobody will buy the upgrade because it will be useless without hi-def games, and nobody will make hi-def games before the bulk of the 360s are upgraded.
Seven weeks until xbox360 launch - if Bill Gates does not announce hd-dvd drive at launch, then toshiba notebooks are your only hope, Obe-wan.
ps - you are crazy if you think that Microsoft software is better than Sony software. I think that you need to go install windows 95 as pennance. My sony phone, my PS2, and my PSP have decent interfaces, unlike - say - Microsoft Word (with the stupid capital letters at the beginning of each line).
5 1/4" media should DIE! Why the hell did Sony decide the format of the future should be the same form factor?! So we can put our movies in those oversized CD cases?!
If either crappy 5 1/4" disc can hold a HD movie, they're both the same as far as practical use considerations go. The cheaper one will 'win', ergo Sony loses...again... and I still don't give a crap.
5 1/4" media should DIE! Why the hell did Sony decide the format of the future should be the same form factor?! So we can put our movies in those oversized CD cases?!
If either crappy 5 1/4" disc can hold a HD movie, they're both the same as far as practical use considerations go. The cheaper one will 'win', ergo Sony loses...again... and I still don't give a crap.
The PS3 conatins a *free* blu-ray drive. Sony is losing $100 on each PS3, exactly the cost of the Blu-ray drive.
Comments
Originally posted by sunilraman
Once the market within the next 5 years starts getting flooded with cheaper chinese-made LCDs and plasma TVs, thinner, bigger, better, brighter, sharper, etc, etc, and prices come down, high-def will truly start to reach Joe Sixpack.... some people have gone so far as to say the switch from analog standard def to say digital 1080p high def will be like going from black and white tv to color tv.
5 years from now there will be 80 million PS3s in homes. If HD-DVD has to wait that long before people start buying players, then there will be no point.
The HD-DVD camp should give up and start trying for the next generation past this one, maybe with 200GB disks or something.
http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6262261.html
Also, with my empasis:
"We have been intrigued by the broad support of Blu-Ray, especially the key advantage of including Blu-Ray in PlayStation 3," Lesinski said in a statement.
"After more detailed assessment and new data on cost, manufacturability and copy protection solutions, we have now made the decision to move ahead with the Blu-ray format."
And Finally,
"Several execs in each camp believe the Paramount announcement to publish in both formats?which is the direction Warner has been leaning for the past week or two with a similar announcement expected this week?is simply a temporary face-saving strategy and that ultimately all studios will shift completely over to Blu-ray by launch time."
Wasn't it Webmail who predicted Paramount would switch?...Good call. Also, regarding...
What if people buy a game player to ...newsflash..play games??? It's pretty obvious that Microsoft could easily and most likely will choose to utilize HD-DVD in the near enough future.
Yup they most certainly will, but LOOK! Haa, it plays High Definition movies too,...now I don't have to buy that $1000 HD-DVD player. That will be the response from the majority of consumers.
Just answer me this one question. How is Blu-Ray going to win against a cheaper competitor that has every bit of the same quality? History shows that it is "your" scenario which is grim.
Is it really the same quality? I don't think it is when all I'm reading regarding the picture quality of HD-DVD is that it will be 1080i. Blu-Ray will be 1080p. And please, don't give me statements from Amir from Microsoft to the contrary in a Arstechnica forum. We already know Microsoft and its pundits like the "industry vets within the pressing industry" as you so call them, were referenced by a Microsoft employee Ribas. So really the question is, who are you going to believe Microsoft, or the several hundred hardware companies that give "broad support" referenced by the now changed Paramount president.
I think the picture is indeed getting clearer, with the exception for those who have an utter distaste for Sony despite their backing by the majority of hardware manufacturers and now...movie studios.
Originally posted by e1618978
5 years from now there will be 80 million PS3s in homes. If HD-DVD has to wait that long before people start buying players, then there will be no point.
The HD-DVD camp should give up and start trying for the next generation past this one, maybe with 200GB disks or something.
Market penetration isn't everything.
DVD-Audio and SACD players are everywhere. But yet, where are the discs?
Originally posted by dfiler
Market penetration isn't everything.
DVD-Audio and SACD players are everywhere. But yet, where are the discs?
Good point - both formats have a hill to climb, but the HD-DVD one is much higher. Market penetration is a nessessary but not sufficient criteria for software sales success - Blu-ray will have it and HD-DVD will not.
So Blu-ray has a small chance, while HD-DVD has no chance at all. Most likely situation is that normal DVD reigns supreme, just like the CD is.
hmurcensen - are you planning to buy one of the initial release $1000 HD-DVD players in Janruary? Even if I wanted to buy one, I think I would wait until the format war is won - if enough people think like me unit sales could go from "very little" to "none at all". There is a lot of stuff coming out about then competing for our home theater dollars (dvdo V30, xbox 360, ps3, hard drive psp, plasma tvs etc).
Originally posted by Splinemodel
All arguments that deal with equipment costs are very speculative. No one has released real numbers, as far as I know, so there's no real cost bearing. It's also uncertain if the difference in line costs makes much difference, particularly when considering how a new line figures into accounting versus an old line that has been retrofitted. I think you should get off the point of line costs, since it doesn't seem like a big deal to me, given that I know how a $2M RFID transponder assembly line amortizes while selling much lower cost units. To boot, only the big players will be making HD discs for the first phase, so it will probably take a longer time for the line cost issue to play out than it will for the player market.
Hence, a bigger deal is making a cheaper player.
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=584523
PDF on Rick Marquardts view on Blu-Ray costs
Read the thread, Rick claims no allegiance to any of the formats but from his perspective within the industry he doesn't see Blu-Ray being affordable. That's a salient issue. Money is always an issue and Blu-Ray just isn't competitive here.
HD-DVD doesn't require Big Players it requires a rather paltry $200k upgrade to your line. The facts are clear that HD-DVD is the far cheaper solution and no-one backing Blu-Ray has rebutted this with any efficacy.
I've read that production negotions will go down to the half penny for large loads. That's not even taking into consideration any speed differences. HD-DVD should lead here because no spincoat is needed and the yields should be high.
Rumor has it that spincoating isn't working for the protective layer meaning plants may have to go to film. That's $$$$$ and time.
Economies of scale arguements will not work here. HD-DVD will offer the same quality via the same codecs coupled with proven plant lines. Blu-Ray doesn't even have their DL mastering system functional yet.
Note Sony's silence about BDROM and the PS3.
AFAIC whether Paramount, Universal, Warner yadda yadda yadda decide to make BDROM is inconsequential. HD-DVD is the cheaper solution by far and that automatically gives them a leg up.
1-1/2.05 1
The media manufacturing industry is on the verge of another milestone in its history. The introduction of the next-generation format of the optical disc is imminent, and I take a tremendous amount of satisfaction in having participated in the entertainment industry?s participation in this format, from the introduction of the CD in 1982 and a decade later with DVD, as Senior Vice President and General Manager of Warner Advanced Media Operations (WAMO), where I led WAMO management and engineering as it developed and marketed the DVD format worldwide. I was later the CEO of Ritek Global Media and President of Deluxe Global Media Services. That?s why I feel that I have to speak out at this point. In order for people and companies to invest enormous amounts of money, effort and intellectual capital developing new products and formats that will move the industry forward, they need accurate information and data to make an informed, objective assessment. And as someone intimately familiar with the economics of physical media manufacturing, I can tell you that the numbers I?m seeing ? or more importantly, not seeing -- don?t add up for a proven manufacturing process The rate of DVD sales is beginning to flatten. That?s inevitable, as it is with any format over time, and the average price of DVD discs continues to decline, as it would with any commodity product. At the same time, major film studios continue to reap increasingly larger percentages of their profits from DVD home video sales. Why, at this critical time of transition, would an entire industry want to radically alter its manufacturing infrastructure, incurring massive new tooling capital costs and a huge new learning curve in the process? The Blu-ray Disc Association (BDA) has long asserted that its Blu-ray (BD) format is superior to the rival HD DVD format, and BD?s ?revolutionary? buzz has understandably caught the fancy of certain technologists. But it should scare CEOs,
1-1/2.05 2
because what the BDA does not sufficiently address is what lies behind those assertions. The numbers are stark: manufacturing BD discs will require an estimated $1.7 million cost per manufacturing line. Per line! Then, each major manufacturing facility would require the implementation of a minimum of two mastering systems, at a minimum cost of $2 million per system. DVD, at the height of its success, resulted in an estimated 600 manufacturing lines globally. Even allowing for a decline in systems costs over time as the manufacturing base expanded, the tab for radically overhauling the media manufacturing industry would approach a billion dollars worldwide or more. Already-beleaguered CFOs will be challenged to raise ?and risk ? this significant amount of capital. Compare this to the estimated cost of retooling for the HD DVD format compared to BD ROM. HD DVD is able to utilize virtually the entire existing manufacturing infrastructure. The cost of upgrading an existing DVD line is about $150,000 ? less than a tenth the cost of a BD line. A DVD mastering system can be upgraded for $145,000. Basically, HD DVD is a DVD-9 ? a version of DVD we have enormous manufacturing experience with already ? with a denser pit structure. The manufacturing process of the BD format is not fully evolved. For instance, there remains a significant debate regarding the best way to create the 0.1-mm layer that forms the top layer of the disc. Both BD and HD DVD offer content owners and consumers dramatically larger amounts of digital real estate, which will be necessary to match the high-definition programming that is the future of entertainment media. But the BD format will require an already strained manufacturing base to invest massive amounts of capital in new manufacturing technology even as disagreements about just what that technology is rages around them. If consumer demand for HD is what projections predict, the simple fact is
1-1/2.05 3
that BD will not allow the manufacturing base to retool fast enough to keep up with the demand curve. Furthermore, there is little in the way of statistical verification of any actual production data for BD. Major disc manufacturers are still far from collecting statistically-significant samples with BD production lines that prove that BD ROM can be mass produced in a typical 6-sigma capable process, and there is virtually no previous experience upon which to base manufacturing. High production demand on an unstable manufacturing process significantly increases the risk of consumer failures. On top of that, those same replicators will still have to continue to operate their existing DVD lines as the market makes its transition from standard-definition formats to high-definition ones, even as that same market continues to mature and experience ever-tighter profit margins. You don?t need a degree in engineering or economics to realize that this is a recipe for disaster. On the other hand, there is a wealth of manufacturing data available on DVD, virtually all of which is applicable to HD DVD manufacturing. DVD and HD DVD can be manufactured on the same line with only minor adjustments. This enables replicators to maximize the productivity of their equipment, altering it to the ebb and flow of demand for either format. Strong home video titles require the ability to manufacture huge quantities of discs in a very tight time window. Failure to meet that demand because the industry is struggling to learn and refine manufacturing on a radically new format can not only jeopardize the sales of that title ? it can strangle an entire industry that depends on hit titles. Inability to meet demand could ultimately sink the format and vastly diminish consumer confidence in any new format. As we?ve learned, new formats drive this industry in the long term.
1-1/2.05 4
With HD DVD, we understand all the critical variables in manufacturing discs already. That verifiable productivity means that the cost of manufacturing the format is estimated to be only 15 to 20 percent higher than that of standard DVD. Given all this information, why risk the fortunes of an entire industry on a potentially disruptive, incompletely tested format when a highly reliable evolutionary format, one already familiar to tens of millions of consumers, is readily available? The amount of time, money and effort to so dramatically alter the manufacturing infrastructure has been substantially underestimated for BD. In fact, it?s responsible for delaying the roll-out of a much-needed upgrade for the home video industry, and has in effect held a portion of the industry resources hostage as a result. Thus, it?s disingenuous to suggest, as some in the BD camp have, that the competition is over. Once people realize the hidden costs of the Blu-ray format, they will also realize the extent to which it actually endangers their very industry. Blu-ray is the Emperor?s New Clothes ? it advances the agendas of a few select companies instead of the market?s and that of the consumer. No one ? the studios, the disc manufacturers, the consumer electronics manufacturers ? can afford a format war today. Consumers want a format that?s familiar and reliable. Shareholders want to see unhindered growth in packaged media, which remains a multi-billion-dollar-a-year industry. Game developers are targeting home video demographics. Cable and satellite delivery is betting big on high definition. HD DVD offers predictable, reliable manufacturing; high capacity; predictable, manageable costs; verifiable quality, enormous familiarity worldwide, and billions of dollars that the consumer will not have to pay that will instead be converted into profits for the entire home video entertainment industry. Even the name of the format is highly consumer-friendly -- any brand marketer will tell you that it would
1-1/2.05 5
take millions of ad dollars and years of promotion for Blu-ray to build the caliber of brand equity enjoyed by a familiar sounding HD DVD brand. We got DVD right and it gave the entertainment media industry a windfall. Right now, the process of introducing the next generation of entertainment media is spinning dangerously out of control and we are running out of time. Consumers are fickle. We better make sure we get HD right. # # #
From Rick Marquart
HD-DVD will be at worst even odds with BD based on just 2 advantages.
1. Cheaper manufacturing costs
2. Microsoft and Intel support
I don't really need to say much more. Eventually the rubber meets the road and stuff has to be purchased and when that race starts HD-DVD's cheaper costs pull ahead. Sometimes companies don't "get it" until those first bills hit their Accounts Payable
Originally posted by dfiler
But once again, we're back to the fact that current DVDs can already fit HD movies. Cheap players can play these movies. Yet hollywood hasn't gone that route.
Full resolution HD, or HD sources, compressed down to SD resolution? What codecs are used? Links?
You keep saying this, but don't show any links to the DVD players. If this is truly the case, I am in the market for a new DVD player, and wouldn't mind picking up one of these.
I-O Data LinkPlayer
This player will play just about any file off of just about anything. Disc, LAN, or even iPod.
[edit: It currently doesn't support h.264 but the firmware could be updated to do so]
All this while hollywood is actively sabotaging such efforts rather than helping them along. If only hollywood would endorse these products... we'd already have HD movies.
You see, it isn't technology that we're waiting on.
Originally posted by hmurchison
From Rick Marquart
HD-DVD will be at worst even odds with BD based on just 2 advantages.
1. Cheaper manufacturing costs
2. Microsoft and Intel support
I don't really need to say much more. Eventually the rubber meets the road and stuff has to be purchased and when that race starts HD-DVD's cheaper costs pull ahead. Sometimes companies don't "get it" until those first bills hit their Accounts Payable
You still have not addressed how HD-DVD will do vs regular DVD. I don't see how HD-DVD can gain a foothold in a DVD world.
You keep saying that HD-DVD has a chance, but without massive hardware deployment it really has no chance at all. How are you going to get 10 million (or even 10,000) people to buy a HD-DVD player?
It seems like in the links you post, there's a lot said about the potential for equipment costs to be amortized quickly. Also, this guy Rick is indeed a market expert (so it seems), but in the end it's just more hearsay.
The possibility that blu-ray may succeed, even if only published by big houses, and that smaller houses may find ways to improve the video on standard DVDs is also an interesting topic. Lastly, it's worth considering that the next upgrade may only require a small cash outlay to modify 1st gen blu-ray to 2nd gen, whereas retooled DVD lines may have to be scrapped, etc.
At some point, there's no way to get around the situation of semiconductor fabs, where smaller companies lease time on big lines since the equipment cost is ridiculously prohibitive.
I have no doubt that Microsoft will create an HD-DVD based Xbox as well. The two companies have become far too chummy over recent times to think otherwise.
Toshiba has stated they will ship some laptop models with HD-DVD as well.
Originally posted by hmurchison
many people underestimate toshiba's drive manufacturing capability. They've been pretty active with optical drives of quality since the advent of computer DVD rom drives. I think they'll be fine and I think that some Korean companies like Samsung will be jumping into the fray. The money is there.
I have no doubt that Microsoft will create an HD-DVD based Xbox as well. The two companies have become far too chummy over recent times to think otherwise.
Toshiba has stated they will ship some laptop models with HD-DVD as well.
Producing an HD-DVD xbox 360 will be a kick in the nutz to early adopters. Two things will happen:
1) Rabid fans might go out and buy the second-gen xbox 360 (these people really have no life and have way too much money...or live in a shack as a result of spending every dime they have on shitty consoles.)
2) Some will be so disgusted by the move that they'll probably just buy a Blu-Ray DVD to spite MS and HD-DVD.
One thing's for sure though...not including HD-DVD in the initial release of the xbox 360 will hurt HD-DVD...and including it later may hurt it more.
Originally posted by kim kap sol
One thing's for sure though...not including HD-DVD in the initial release of the xbox 360 will hurt HD-DVD...and including it later may hurt it more.
I think it means that few to none of the 360 games will be on HD-DVD. Computer game makers still seem to lothe the idea of requiring DVD drives to install PC games. That means any large games will far more likely be put onto multiple discs rather than a single HD-DVD.
Originally posted by hmurchison
many people underestimate toshiba's drive manufacturing capability. They've been pretty active with optical drives of quality since the advent of computer DVD rom drives. I think they'll be fine and I think that some Korean companies like Samsung will be jumping into the fray. The money is there.
I have no doubt that Microsoft will create an HD-DVD based Xbox as well. The two companies have become far too chummy over recent times to think otherwise.
Toshiba has stated they will ship some laptop models with HD-DVD as well.
So movie pressing houses and high-definition DVD players will be absolutely unimportant in this battle.
It will be a race to see who can provide the most high definition game consoles and computer drives. Once people start to care about high definition movies in a few years time, whoever won the computer/console race will be the movie format just out of inertia.
Blu-ray has the console business sewn up, because I can't see any advantage of adding a HD-DVD drive to the 360 after launch. The computer drive race is still up in the air, but I think that the console is more important for movie crossover, because it will already be in the living room (where the computer probably won't be).
Producing an HD-DVD xbox 360 will be a kick in the nutz to early adopters
Offer an upgrade. There are plenty of people that would be refurb Xbox 360s for a song.
One thing's for sure though...not including HD-DVD in the initial release of the xbox 360 will hurt HD-DVD...and including it later may hurt it more.
Negative invariably having choice is better than lack of choice. Simply offer a two tiered system in which people can get a $300 Xbox or $500 Xbox. Those who purchased the initial xbox and want the Xbox HD will have a certain time to upgrade. Problem solved.
e1618978
I'm curious to see whether the PS3 can dominate. Pricing is going to be important and I believe that out of the rumored 10 million purchases only half will be initially interested in playing movies on their PS3. If you're playing a movie you can't be playing a game. That's an issue no matter which way you cut it.
Microsoft has to take the Xbox and go HD and add some features that tie into Win CE OS. If they can't beat Sony at this game they should be embarassed because Sony is likely one of the worst software companies on the planet. Leverage Microsoft IP and Windows Media and you have a capable PS3 competitor.
Originally posted by hmurchison
If they can't beat Sony at this game they should be embarassed because Sony is likely one of the worst software companies on the planet. Leverage Microsoft IP and Windows Media and you have a capable PS3 competitor.
Sony's job is a lot easier, since IBM has already made dozens of optimized Linux ports to the Cell. Last I checked, the PS3 was to run a brand of Linux/GNU, which instantly makes the PS3 pretty flexible.
Originally posted by hmurchison
I'm curious to see whether the PS3 can dominate. Pricing is going to be important and I believe that out of the rumored 10 million purchases only half will be initially interested in playing movies on their PS3. If you're playing a movie you can't be playing a game. That's an issue no matter which way you cut it.
I play both games and movies on my PS2 - have done so ever since I realised that the picture was better than my $1000 DVD player. I don't see why it is an issue - you can only do one thing at once. The PS3 game demos blew away the 360 demos, and the game list is awesome (200 or so titles in the first year). People are really looking forward to both systems, I don't think that either will have any problem selling millions of units per year.
Even if only half of the PS3 buyers play movies - how can HD-DVD compete with 3-5 million people in the first year?
I will be buying both a 360 and a PS3. When I watch movies, I will pick the one that looks the best for a particular disk (DVD or Blu-ray, whatever). What I won't do, and I don't know anyone who will either, is buy a 3rd box for playing movies.
I also will not upgrade the drive in my 360 - why bother when all games will have to come out in DVD format, or else lose a big chunk of the 360 installed base? This is why an upgrade would never work - nobody will buy the upgrade because it will be useless without hi-def games, and nobody will make hi-def games before the bulk of the 360s are upgraded.
Seven weeks until xbox360 launch - if Bill Gates does not announce hd-dvd drive at launch, then toshiba notebooks are your only hope, Obe-wan.
ps - you are crazy if you think that Microsoft software is better than Sony software. I think that you need to go install windows 95 as pennance. My sony phone, my PS2, and my PSP have decent interfaces, unlike - say - Microsoft Word (with the stupid capital letters at the beginning of each line).
5 1/4" media should DIE! Why the hell did Sony decide the format of the future should be the same form factor?! So we can put our movies in those oversized CD cases?!
If either crappy 5 1/4" disc can hold a HD movie, they're both the same as far as practical use considerations go. The cheaper one will 'win', ergo Sony loses...again... and I still don't give a crap.
Originally posted by strobe
I, for one, don't give a crap.
5 1/4" media should DIE! Why the hell did Sony decide the format of the future should be the same form factor?! So we can put our movies in those oversized CD cases?!
If either crappy 5 1/4" disc can hold a HD movie, they're both the same as far as practical use considerations go. The cheaper one will 'win', ergo Sony loses...again... and I still don't give a crap.
The PS3 conatins a *free* blu-ray drive. Sony is losing $100 on each PS3, exactly the cost of the Blu-ray drive.
You can't get much cheaper than free.