No worries. This is the last hurrah for the 12cm disc format. In the next 5 years Fibre to the premise and ADSL2++ will take over and give broadband hungry people 30-50Mbps downloads. At that time IPTV will take over and you'll just download your movies that will last for a predetermined length of views or time.
Hell my DVD purchasing died when I signed up for Netflix. I don't need to purchase everything.
Cheap isn't everything though. SACD and DVD-A are cheap and playable in million upon millions of players... yet where is the content?
Remember Divx? (The time expiring DVDs) It didn't succeed.
Nor did laser disc truly succeed as a consumer media format.
Nor did DAT succeed as a consumer media format.
Nor did DVHS...
Nor did minidisc (at least in north america)
Nor did DVD-Audio
Nor did Super Audio CDs
It astounds me the level of certainty people are putting into their backing of one format or the other. It's far from certain which format will prevail. Even if one format were obviously superior and backed by more content owners, this alone means little.
It astounds me the level of certainty people are putting into their backing of one format or the other. It's far from certain which format will prevail. Even if one format were obviously superior and backed by more content owners, this alone means little.
I'm not certain that Blu-ray will succeed, I am certain that HD-DVD will fail.
I'm not certain that Blu-ray will succeed, I am certain that HD-DVD will fail.
I would hold your intellect in higher regard if you were uncertain of your own prediction... even if you end up being right about HD-DVD being doomed to failure.
Proclaiming certainty of a most assuredly uncertain future is naive. By making a proclamation of almighty certainty, you've lowered your own credibility.
I play both games and movies on my PS2 - have done so ever since I realised that the picture was better than my $1000 DVD player. I don't see why it is an issue - you can only do one thing at once. The PS3 game demos blew away the 360 demos
On the first part, are you comparing the PS2 against a first generation DVD player?
On the second, were there actual PS3s running actual demos, or were they just promotional renderings?
5 1/4" media should DIE! Why the hell did Sony decide the format of the future should be the same form factor?! So we can put our movies in those oversized CD cases?!
Obsolete measuring systems should DIE too!
Basically, capacity matters. I'm not willing to drop capacity by 70% to go with 8cm media vs. 12cm. Also, the players should be backward compatible with DVD and CD in order to survive in the market, so there's little to be gained.
Also, it's not "Sony's" format. Sony happens to be the most well-known name in the group that designed the spec, but I don't think Sony owns or controls the format, and I don't think continuing the size standard is necessarily their choice alone.
Cheap isn't everything though. SACD and DVD-A are cheap and playable in million upon millions of players... yet where is the content?
DVD-Audio and SACD were/are debacles. The problem is this.
1. No consumers were "asking" for Hirez audio. They basically created two new formats out of greed.
2. Full enjoyment required 5.1 surround sound. People barely have stereo speakers setup properly..asking them to have a correct 5.1 setup is foolhardy.
3. 6 analog connections? Ok so I'm supposed to by 3x more cable to satiate copy protection concerns.
The problems with DVDA and SACD are caused by idiotic thinking. The same thinking I'm seeing with content providers choosing sides. Sell your damn content and let the market decide what hardware they like. Sheesh.
DVD-Audio and SACD were/are debacles. The problem is this.
1. No consumers were "asking" for Hirez audio. They basically created two new formats out of greed.
2. Full enjoyment required 5.1 surround sound. People barely have stereo speakers setup properly..asking them to have a correct 5.1 setup is foolhardy.
3. 6 analog connections? Ok so I'm supposed to by 3x more cable to satiate copy protection concerns.
The problems with DVDA and SACD are caused by idiotic thinking. The same thinking I'm seeing with content providers choosing sides. Sell your damn content and let the market decide what hardware they like. Sheesh.
I completely agree.
These and a few other format debacles are important history lessons; or at least pertinent to this discussion.
People would have gobbled up high-res audio if the "standards" had been managed properly and put into appealing overall packages. But instead, consumers were given things they didn't really want (5.1 sound for music). On top of that, there were so many other "gotchas" that the product simply wasn't appealing. The recording industry prohibitted high-res sound output via the most desirable output. It simply wasn't convenient for consumers.
The exact same things appears to be happening with the next-gen DVD formats. Hollywood is already unwilling to allow high-res output via the most popular connectors. Will they limit output in such a way that the format just isn't worth the hassle and expense?
It doesn't seem like consumer desires rank very high in the format battle. Instead, the battle is focused on how each player can gain complete control over the market. In the case of SACD and DVD-A, both formats failed and consumers are now flocking to online distribution.
The same could happen to movie distribution. I don't consider it to be the most likely scenario... but it can't be ruled out yet.
On the first part, are you comparing the PS2 against a first generation DVD player?
On the second, were there actual PS3s running actual demos, or were they just promotional renderings?
real-time demos, according to the Sony marketing reps at E3. And yes - my PS2 was being compared to a Sony S7000ES - I have not bought a more recent DVD player, because my current line quadrupler is limited to 480i input, so I didn't see the point.
I would hold your intellect in higher regard if you were uncertain of your own prediction... even if you end up being right about HD-DVD being doomed to failure.
Proclaiming certainty of a most assuredly uncertain future is naive. By making a proclamation of almighty certainty, you've lowered your own credibility.
60% probability - Blu-ray is as successful for movies as laserdisk, all HD movies produced on Blu-ray but most people still buy DVD, and then online distribution kills both later.
39.9% - Blu-ray gradually takes over market share until DVD goes away
0.09% - HD-DVD as popular as laserdisk, Blue-ray goes away, DVD wins
0.01% - HD-DVD gradually kills DVD, Blu-ray goes away
It astounds me the level of certainty people are putting into their backing of one format or the other. It's far from certain which format will prevail. Even if one format were obviously superior and backed by more content owners, this alone means little.
Ooh, how I wish there was software that made making a bet between any two people easy. (I'm sure there will be, once we have proper electronic money.)
Forumite 1: Technology A is a success! I mean it will be, and I'm so entirely assured of it that I'm using present tense!
Me: Cool. Since Technology A is certain to win, want some easy money? Bet me 10:1 that Technology A wins.
... repeat with Forumite 2, Technology B of course
But I think they already have that... it's called the stock market.
With such certainty (down to .01% accuracy apparently), one could immediately become a billionaire.
You are a whiner - you complain when I say that HD-DVD is going to die, and then complain when I am more generous than that. Do I have to estimate a whole percentage in order to satisfy you, even if I think it is overly optimistic?
It was obviously a numerical way of showing how comfident I am in the outcome, rather than an absolute fact.
Anyway, Intel just stated that they would back Blu-ray if the "managed copy" stuff was included.
Toshiba-Samsung's HD DVD drive for laptop. "After AACS gets completed, we'd like to update firmware, then ship it". Toshiba demonstrated HD DVD-ROM playback on high-end AV notebook line "Qosmio G20" playing 10-20Mbps video, there were drop/skip frames during playback. Price is still not confirmed, it's expected around 20,000 JPY (181 USD) according to the person in the booth.
My emphasis added.
Also as far as some odds bandied about in this thread. There is no way either HD-DVD or Blu-Ray has any more than a 10% advantage over the other.
As for Panny with the spincoat...prove it. Frankly many of us AV enthusiasts are tired of reading about BDA advances that aren't backed with empirical evidence.
Also as far as some odds bandied about in this thread. There is no way either HD-DVD or Blu-Ray has any more than a 10% advantage over the other.
If something happens so that Sony drops back to regular DVD for the PS3, then I would agree with you. But right now, assuming that they are successful launching the PS3 with Blu-ray, HD-DVD is trying to get a seat at a table that Blu-ray already has a reservation for.
You have a nearly guarenteed Blu-ray population of millions of drives just with the PS3 - HD-DVD has to capture the computer market to even put them in the running, and that is far from a sure bet. To me, the console race is over, and the computer race is 50/50, and the console market is bigger than the home entertainment computer market by a long shot.
And the computer market is intensly spec-happy. Even if people buy HD_DVD drives for their computers, they will upgrade later to Blu-ray because of the higher capacity and cool name.
But I think they already have that... it's called the stock market.
Hmm... indeed. My original idea went farther than what I wrote and doesn't just include win or loss of money, but risking face. Here's the revised deal:
Forumite 1 writes on forum: Technology A si teh r0xx0rz! 100% guaranteed
Forumite 2 writes on forum: Oh yeah? Let's see you put money on Tech A getting 80% of sales or better in 2006 according to randomresearch.com. Send me your betnow ID or risk looking like a wimp in the eyes of your intarweb peers.
(ID is sent, arrives, bet is placed, confirmed by both parties)
Forumite 1 writes on forum: hay guys!!11, we made a bet on Tech A, youes can check it out (betnow URL)!! Didnt think I had the balls to bet lolz take that Forumite 2 u biatch!1
This would effectively be a way of dumb/uninformed people to compensate their presence to others
hmurchison- I know you like HD-DVD, but now Intel is backing away from their support. I'm sorry, but M$ and a few electronic makers will not beat out BRD if this jumping ship continues, regardless of cost.
Comments
No worries. This is the last hurrah for the 12cm disc format. In the next 5 years Fibre to the premise and ADSL2++ will take over and give broadband hungry people 30-50Mbps downloads. At that time IPTV will take over and you'll just download your movies that will last for a predetermined length of views or time.
Hell my DVD purchasing died when I signed up for Netflix. I don't need to purchase everything.
Originally posted by hmurchison
Hell my DVD purchasing died when I signed up for Netflix. I don't need to purchase everything.
Mine too - unfortunately my wife is still buying mountains of VHS casettes for the kids.
Remember Divx? (The time expiring DVDs) It didn't succeed.
Nor did laser disc truly succeed as a consumer media format.
Nor did DAT succeed as a consumer media format.
Nor did DVHS...
Nor did minidisc (at least in north america)
Nor did DVD-Audio
Nor did Super Audio CDs
It astounds me the level of certainty people are putting into their backing of one format or the other. It's far from certain which format will prevail. Even if one format were obviously superior and backed by more content owners, this alone means little.
Originally posted by dfiler
It astounds me the level of certainty people are putting into their backing of one format or the other. It's far from certain which format will prevail. Even if one format were obviously superior and backed by more content owners, this alone means little.
I'm not certain that Blu-ray will succeed, I am certain that HD-DVD will fail.
Originally posted by e1618978
I'm not certain that Blu-ray will succeed, I am certain that HD-DVD will fail.
I would hold your intellect in higher regard if you were uncertain of your own prediction... even if you end up being right about HD-DVD being doomed to failure.
Proclaiming certainty of a most assuredly uncertain future is naive. By making a proclamation of almighty certainty, you've lowered your own credibility.
Originally posted by e1618978
I play both games and movies on my PS2 - have done so ever since I realised that the picture was better than my $1000 DVD player. I don't see why it is an issue - you can only do one thing at once. The PS3 game demos blew away the 360 demos
On the first part, are you comparing the PS2 against a first generation DVD player?
On the second, were there actual PS3s running actual demos, or were they just promotional renderings?
Originally posted by strobe
5 1/4" media should DIE! Why the hell did Sony decide the format of the future should be the same form factor?! So we can put our movies in those oversized CD cases?!
Obsolete measuring systems should DIE too!
Basically, capacity matters. I'm not willing to drop capacity by 70% to go with 8cm media vs. 12cm. Also, the players should be backward compatible with DVD and CD in order to survive in the market, so there's little to be gained.
Also, it's not "Sony's" format. Sony happens to be the most well-known name in the group that designed the spec, but I don't think Sony owns or controls the format, and I don't think continuing the size standard is necessarily their choice alone.
Originally posted by e1618978
Mine too - unfortunately my wife is still buying mountains of VHS casettes for the kids.
Gasp! Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
Cheap isn't everything though. SACD and DVD-A are cheap and playable in million upon millions of players... yet where is the content?
DVD-Audio and SACD were/are debacles. The problem is this.
1. No consumers were "asking" for Hirez audio. They basically created two new formats out of greed.
2. Full enjoyment required 5.1 surround sound. People barely have stereo speakers setup properly..asking them to have a correct 5.1 setup is foolhardy.
3. 6 analog connections? Ok so I'm supposed to by 3x more cable to satiate copy protection concerns.
The problems with DVDA and SACD are caused by idiotic thinking. The same thinking I'm seeing with content providers choosing sides. Sell your damn content and let the market decide what hardware they like. Sheesh.
Originally posted by hmurchison
DVD-Audio and SACD were/are debacles. The problem is this.
1. No consumers were "asking" for Hirez audio. They basically created two new formats out of greed.
2. Full enjoyment required 5.1 surround sound. People barely have stereo speakers setup properly..asking them to have a correct 5.1 setup is foolhardy.
3. 6 analog connections? Ok so I'm supposed to by 3x more cable to satiate copy protection concerns.
The problems with DVDA and SACD are caused by idiotic thinking. The same thinking I'm seeing with content providers choosing sides. Sell your damn content and let the market decide what hardware they like. Sheesh.
I completely agree.
These and a few other format debacles are important history lessons; or at least pertinent to this discussion.
People would have gobbled up high-res audio if the "standards" had been managed properly and put into appealing overall packages. But instead, consumers were given things they didn't really want (5.1 sound for music). On top of that, there were so many other "gotchas" that the product simply wasn't appealing. The recording industry prohibitted high-res sound output via the most desirable output. It simply wasn't convenient for consumers.
The exact same things appears to be happening with the next-gen DVD formats. Hollywood is already unwilling to allow high-res output via the most popular connectors. Will they limit output in such a way that the format just isn't worth the hassle and expense?
It doesn't seem like consumer desires rank very high in the format battle. Instead, the battle is focused on how each player can gain complete control over the market. In the case of SACD and DVD-A, both formats failed and consumers are now flocking to online distribution.
The same could happen to movie distribution. I don't consider it to be the most likely scenario... but it can't be ruled out yet.
as hd dvd discs. I found the story on Engadget.
Link here.
Originally posted by JeffDM
On the first part, are you comparing the PS2 against a first generation DVD player?
On the second, were there actual PS3s running actual demos, or were they just promotional renderings?
real-time demos, according to the Sony marketing reps at E3. And yes - my PS2 was being compared to a Sony S7000ES - I have not bought a more recent DVD player, because my current line quadrupler is limited to 480i input, so I didn't see the point.
Originally posted by dfiler
I would hold your intellect in higher regard if you were uncertain of your own prediction... even if you end up being right about HD-DVD being doomed to failure.
Proclaiming certainty of a most assuredly uncertain future is naive. By making a proclamation of almighty certainty, you've lowered your own credibility.
60% probability - Blu-ray is as successful for movies as laserdisk, all HD movies produced on Blu-ray but most people still buy DVD, and then online distribution kills both later.
39.9% - Blu-ray gradually takes over market share until DVD goes away
0.09% - HD-DVD as popular as laserdisk, Blue-ray goes away, DVD wins
0.01% - HD-DVD gradually kills DVD, Blu-ray goes away
Originally posted by dfiler
It astounds me the level of certainty people are putting into their backing of one format or the other. It's far from certain which format will prevail. Even if one format were obviously superior and backed by more content owners, this alone means little.
Ooh, how I wish there was software that made making a bet between any two people easy. (I'm sure there will be, once we have proper electronic money.)
Forumite 1: Technology A is a success! I mean it will be, and I'm so entirely assured of it that I'm using present tense!
Me: Cool. Since Technology A is certain to win, want some easy money? Bet me 10:1 that Technology A wins.
... repeat with Forumite 2, Technology B of course
But I think they already have that... it's called the stock market.
With such certainty (down to .01% accuracy apparently), one could immediately become a billionaire.
Originally posted by dfiler
LOL, exactly!
But I think they already have that... it's called the stock market.
With such certainty (down to .01% accuracy apparently), one could immediately become a billionaire.
You are a whiner - you complain when I say that HD-DVD is going to die, and then complain when I am more generous than that. Do I have to estimate a whole percentage in order to satisfy you, even if I think it is overly optimistic?
It was obviously a numerical way of showing how comfident I am in the outcome, rather than an absolute fact.
Anyway, Intel just stated that they would back Blu-ray if the "managed copy" stuff was included.
http://www.macworld.com/news/2005/10...uray/index.php
Toshiba-Samsung's HD DVD drive for laptop. "After AACS gets completed, we'd like to update firmware, then ship it". Toshiba demonstrated HD DVD-ROM playback on high-end AV notebook line "Qosmio G20" playing 10-20Mbps video, there were drop/skip frames during playback. Price is still not confirmed, it's expected around 20,000 JPY (181 USD) according to the person in the booth.
My emphasis added.
Also as far as some odds bandied about in this thread. There is no way either HD-DVD or Blu-Ray has any more than a 10% advantage over the other.
As for Panny with the spincoat...prove it. Frankly many of us AV enthusiasts are tired of reading about BDA advances that aren't backed with empirical evidence.
Originally posted by hmurchison
Also as far as some odds bandied about in this thread. There is no way either HD-DVD or Blu-Ray has any more than a 10% advantage over the other.
If something happens so that Sony drops back to regular DVD for the PS3, then I would agree with you. But right now, assuming that they are successful launching the PS3 with Blu-ray, HD-DVD is trying to get a seat at a table that Blu-ray already has a reservation for.
You have a nearly guarenteed Blu-ray population of millions of drives just with the PS3 - HD-DVD has to capture the computer market to even put them in the running, and that is far from a sure bet. To me, the console race is over, and the computer race is 50/50, and the console market is bigger than the home entertainment computer market by a long shot.
And the computer market is intensly spec-happy. Even if people buy HD_DVD drives for their computers, they will upgrade later to Blu-ray because of the higher capacity and cool name.
Originally posted by dfiler
LOL, exactly!
But I think they already have that... it's called the stock market.
Hmm... indeed. My original idea went farther than what I wrote and doesn't just include win or loss of money, but risking face. Here's the revised deal:
Forumite 1 writes on forum: Technology A si teh r0xx0rz! 100% guaranteed
Forumite 2 writes on forum: Oh yeah? Let's see you put money on Tech A getting 80% of sales or better in 2006 according to randomresearch.com. Send me your betnow ID or risk looking like a wimp in the eyes of your intarweb peers.
(ID is sent, arrives, bet is placed, confirmed by both parties)
Forumite 1 writes on forum: hay guys!!11, we made a bet on Tech A, youes can check it out (betnow URL)!! Didnt think I had the balls to bet lolz take that Forumite 2 u biatch!1
This would effectively be a way of dumb/uninformed people to compensate their presence to others