Analyst updates Intel Mac predictions

Posted:
in Future Apple Hardware edited January 2014
Apple is making "great progress" on the Intel version of Mac OS X 10.4 "Tiger," says one analyst who also predicts the first Intel Mac systems will include PowerBooks, iBooks and Mac minis.



In a note to clients on Friday, American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu said checks with sources indicate that the upcoming release of Mac OS X 10.4.4 for Intel runs well, with noticeable improvements to the Rosetta PowerPC emulation environment that improve backward compatibility with AltiVec support.



"We believe this will alleviate concerns that older software that hasn't been ported to Intel will run well without a recompile," Wu wrote.



The analyst also updated his predictions on the first Intel Macs, saying the PowerBook, iBook, Mac mini and Xserve will likely be the first models to go Intel because they are "weaker members" of Apple's product line that "would benefit moving to Intel."



Based on similar reasoning, Wu said he doesn't foresee the iMac being one of the first Intel Macs because "its current PowerPC G5 configurations already offers industry-leading price-performance."



Wu said he believes that Apple may be ready to debut the first Intel Mac during the first quarter of 2006, with others to follow in subsequent quarters.



"While many believe that cost was primary reason for Apple moving to Intel, we believe power management and the oppertunity to enter new markets are bigger reasons -- including the potential for a lightweight sub-notebook or palmtop similar to those offered by Sony, Lenovo, Dell and Sharp," Wu wrote. "We believe there is pent-up demand for an Apple subnotebook and that it would sell very well if priced competitively at $1499 or lower."



American Technology Research recently raised its December quarter forecast on Apple to include $4.9 billion in revenue, 54 cents earnings-per-share, and shipments of 9.7 million iPods.



The firm maintains a "Buy" rating on Apple shares with a target price of $77.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 67
    aplnubaplnub Posts: 2,585member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by AppleInsider

    "While many believe that cost was primary reason for Apple moving to Intel, we believe power management and the oppertunity to enter new markets are bigger reasons -- including the potential for a lightweight sub-notebook or palmtop similar to those offered by Sony, Lenovo, Dell and Sharp," Wu wrote. "We believe there is pent-up demand for an Apple subnotebook and that it would sell very well if priced competitively at $1499 or lower."





    And 95% of the 12" owners said, "ABOUT FREEKN TIME!"



    I can't wait for a subnotebook, I hope this is true or I am going to be pissed at Mr. Wu.
  • Reply 2 of 67
    Xserve moving among the first???



    completely stupid!
  • Reply 3 of 67
    andersanders Posts: 6,523member
    I´ll bet Wu $1000 that Apple won´t release a true subnotebook in 2006
  • Reply 4 of 67
    deepdeep Posts: 13member
    Did he say PALMTOP?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?! Hot Damn!!! It's about time. Apple needs to re-enter that market to capture more mobile and enterprise users.
  • Reply 5 of 67
    boogabooga Posts: 1,077member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by belzebuth

    Xserve moving among the first???



    completely stupid!




    Why? Most servers are Xeons, and why shouldn't Apple enter that game? I happen to think they could do pretty well in the server market with industry-standard hardware. The xServer/xRAID/xSAN are pretty competitive options, but the PowerPC and MacOS X aspects frightens IT. If Apple could go bidding on regular contracts and get MacOS X compatibility in as a kind of hidden capability, it could start to slowly take off.



    Besides, servers are one of the areas where most apps are compiled, vertical, or highly integrated, so they wouldn't have to worry that Grandma Smith's Recipe Book or whatever software isn't native yet.
  • Reply 6 of 67
    kmok1kmok1 Posts: 63member
    Powerbook, iBook, MacMini, and Xserve at the same time? That is pretty ambious...



    I doubt we'll see Xserve anytime soon since we haven't seen an OSX server for Intel yet.



    PowerBook, iBook, and Mac Mini will come in the first half of the year, but Xserve will come much later.
  • Reply 7 of 67
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,507member
    Will these stories never cease?



    I remember the days when NO ONE covered Apple.
  • Reply 8 of 67
    Apple's got remarkable mind share these days. Much more than ever in Apple's history I would think. The main problem is a lot of people still don't know Apple computers exist. They associate Apple with the iPod...but I'm sure that 3 years is enough for people to become aware of Macs and I'd be very surprised if Apple didn't double or triple its marketshare in the next 2-3 years.



    I go to a school that insists that most students buy IBM Thinkpads or Toshiba laptops. 3 years ago, you'd only see Thinkpads or Toshiba laptops at school. This year, though, I'm seeing an overwhelming amount of people with iBooks.



    The cafe on my street is always full of students...and I almost always see 2-3 iBooks or PowerBooks amongst the students that are studying (usually 7-8 students). If you didn't know better, you'd think Apple had 15% market share for computers here in Montreal.
  • Reply 9 of 67
    Quote:

    Originally posted by kim kap sol

    If you didn't know better, you'd think Apple had 15% market share for computers here in Montreal.



    And don't forget that Macs get used longer too (don't trust me? check out lowendmac.com for a community based on the premise!) as the three year old 12" PB this is being typed on still feels a perfectly useable computer to me. If you sell computers to users who'll trash them after 2 years, you're going to have an inflated marketshare compared to the people who sell computers which last twice as long, whose installed base will be underrepresented. And it's installed base you're seeing in the cafe's, old and new.



    Count me in for the SlimBook or PowerBook nano of course! But this 867MHz G4 is going to get used as long as there's a new Mac OS to run on it. I have relatives drooling for a free aluminum mac!
  • Reply 10 of 67
    ct77ct77 Posts: 49member
    3 year old iBook?



    I got ya beat!



    Mine is 4 1/2 years old -- a G3 500 MHz dual-USB silver iBook.



    Now I've admittedly maxed out the RAM at 576 MB, and replaced the original 10 GB HD with a 40 GB drive, but honestly, my iBook is eminently usable for day-to-day work as a full-time student.



    Those unfamiliar with Macintosh find it hard to believe, but it's very true, the OS gets faster with every release, and as a result the hardware can be very long-lived.
  • Reply 11 of 67
    chuckerchucker Posts: 5,089member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by AppleInsider

    The analyst also updated his predictions on the first Intel Macs, saying the [..] Xserve, will likely be the first model to go Intel because they are "weaker members" of Apple's product line that "would benefit moving to Intel."



    Based on similar reasoning, Wu said he doesn't foresee the iMac being one of the first Intel Macs because "its current PowerPC G5 configurations already offers industry-leading price-performance."



    So an iMac G5 "offers industry-leading price-performance", whereas an Xserve G5, which is specced higher, does not? Granted, the Xserve hasn't really been updated in a while and doesn't yet feature PCIe nor DDR2, but it's still not exactly a "'weaker member' of Apple's product line".
  • Reply 12 of 67
    Quote:

    Originally posted by ct77

    3 year old iBook?



    I got ya beat!



    Mine is 4 1/2 years old -- a G3 500 MHz dual-USB silver iBook.



    Now I've admittedly maxed out the RAM at 576 MB, and replaced the original 10 GB HD with a 40 GB drive, but honestly, my iBook is eminently usable for day-to-day work as a full-time student.



    Those unfamiliar with Macintosh find it hard to believe, but it's very true, the OS gets faster with every release, and as a result the hardware can be very long-lived.




    Got you beat as well. Im using a 6 1/2 yr old BW G3 300 mhz ! It still chugs along here while I type this! However Ill be getting a dual core 2.3 G5 here next week....
  • Reply 13 of 67
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,507member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by hypoluxa

    Got you beat as well. Im using a 6 1/2 yr old BW G3 300 mhz ! It still chugs along here while I type this! However Ill be getting a dual core 2.3 G5 here next week....



    Since we're devolving here, my wife won't give up her 400MHz B/W, and I retired my 9600 and 9500's last year.
  • Reply 14 of 67
    why the xserves?



    xserves NEED opterons, not xeons. xeons suck so bad that it would be a step backwards to include them in the xserve designs.



    Apple switching to Intel was a great choice for laptops, but not for the desktops.



    although I still think the turion 64 is better than the pentium M.



    really, apple pro desktops/servers will be the LAST machines to get intel processors.
  • Reply 15 of 67
    yeah the xserve comment by Mr. Wu is bollocks (my favourite word this month, can you tell? ) that said "pent-up demand" is a gross understatement when it comes to apple computers. if they had the capacity and they slashed prices 30% across the line of iBooks, powerBooks, subnotebooks, Mac mini, bring in a Mac MiniTower, and did just a smidgen of advertising (1% of their after-tax nett profits) jesus bloody christ people will really start getting into macs then....! just last weekend here in malaysistan the mac was finally at an unbelievable price point, lowest ever, $1199 in local currency -- the original mac mini 1.25ghz combodrive. it was absolutely appalling though, the way they were selling it at the "pc fair" -- like it was a bloody piece of meat they were trying to pawn off on unsuspecting customers...
  • Reply 16 of 67
    Quote:

    Originally posted by sunilraman

    yeah the xserve comment by Mr. Wu is bollocks (my favourite word this month, can you tell? ) that said "pent-up demand" is a gross understatement when it comes to apple computers. if they had the capacity and they slashed prices 30% across the line of iBooks, powerBooks, subnotebooks, Mac mini, bring in a Mac MiniTower, and did just a smidgen of advertising (1% of their after-tax nett profits) jesus bloody christ people will really start getting into macs then....! just last weekend here in malaysistan the mac was finally at an unbelievable price point, lowest ever, $1199 in local currency -- the original mac mini 1.25ghz combodrive. it was absolutely appalling though, the way they were selling it at the "pc fair" -- like it was a bloody piece of meat they were trying to pawn off on unsuspecting customers...



    Bet you're looking forward to a local Apple Store



    So am I ... Scotland is a few too many hundred miles from the big place in London:

    http://www.apple.com/uk/retail/regen...ndopening.html



    But when they do come to a city near you, they seem to know what they're doing! Hope you're not too far from Kuala Lumpur or Singapore, they should get a good one somtime in the decade at this rate....
  • Reply 17 of 67
    Xserve to move to Intel early?

    Seems unlikely to me ? and to some well-respected industry watchers:



    ?What comes after Xserve G5?? And the answer is, ?Xserve G5.?



    Now what does Wu know that the likes of Yager don?t?

    An early transition to Intel seems a given for Apple?s underpowered notebooks and Mac mini, but not for the Xserve if they up it to the latest Power Mac specs.

    I?d expect at least one rev with dual core G5, quads, pci-e, DDR2 (lower power!), and what have you.



    Now if Intel somehow magically would be able to deliver Conroe or better as of January, Wu might be right.

    But Xeon, Pentium M or Yonah in an Xserve? Oh lord deliver us.
  • Reply 18 of 67
    No Firewire?



    According to an article at Powerpage, there is rumor/speculation that Firewire might be missing from the Intel iBooks. That would be a real bummer, as Firewire is an important part of my backup world. Being able to boot from Firewire in an emergency is a necessity for me, whether an entry level machine like an iBook or a high end machine like a PowerMac G5.
  • Reply 19 of 67
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Chucker

    So an iMac G5 "offers industry-leading price-performance", whereas an Xserve G5, which is specced higher, does not? Granted, the Xserve hasn't really been updated in a while and doesn't yet feature PCIe nor DDR2, but it's still not exactly a "'weaker member' of Apple's product line".



    Price-performance is the key word here. It's not just about being having a higher spec, it's about it's spec and price compare with others in it's market segment. The Xserve is a great machine but it hasn't been updated in a while. If it's due an update, and Apple is moving to Intel, it may make sense to just move straight.
  • Reply 20 of 67
    Quote:

    Originally posted by david_oc

    Price-performance is the key word here. It's not just about being having a higher spec, it's about it's spec and price compare with others in it's market segment. The Xserve is a great machine but it hasn't been updated in a while. If it's due an update, and Apple is moving to Intel, it may make sense to just move straight.



    It is also about stability and reliability of the hardware and software. Apple's current server software is very stable, but if the intel verstion of it is just as stable then their is nothing holding them back except R&D budget and resources to develop the new systems. The Xserve will most likely use a completly different motherboard than the laptops or consumer models, so it is probably on a compleatly different scheduele for the transition. Given that and the fact that Apple will want to optamize the OS/hardware combination as much as possible to compete against other Unix servers as well as Windows servers. Also the current system does have some room to grow with the G5 to include Quad (dual dual core) processors which should help them compte well in the performance arena. I think that Apple would have to see some big cost reductions from an intel system to push the development of the Xserve at this point in time.
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