You know what I've realized Marzetta7. I've been mostly right and you've been mostly wrong. It's 4th qtr and you basically promised us that this would be a time of "Shock and Awe" for Blu-ray. But look at the numbers. Blu-ray's getting demolished. If PS3 owners in large numbers really cared about watching movies on their console we would have seen a spike in sales preceding the launch. Thus we are now 3 weeks from this sweet spot of purchases and Blu-ray is fading like it always has. Bet you didn't think the Shock and Awe would be so dissappointing for you did you?
More like "illusioned" than "realized" there bub. Need we go through the 40 or so pages of posts of this thread and REALLY prove whose been mostly right and wrong? Here's just a few of your wrongs about Blu-ray...
"No Mandatory Managed Copy" -- Wrong
"No 50 GB discs" -- Wrong, You said it was a pipe dream
"Blu-ray discs being more expensive" - Wrong, they're the same price, and a lot of times, cheaper
Need I go on? The only point I've been wrong on as I see it is the fact that Blu-ray didn't have 50 GB discs at launch--information that I attained from HighDefDigest for the Ultraviolet release.
Wow, not even two weeks have gone by since lauch and you are claiming Blu-ray is getting owned. Hmm, what part of 331,000 PS3s sold in less than two weeks don't you understand?
Sony appears from these estimates to be selling roughly 174,000 players a week. Guess what that equates too...yup 1,000,000 players by years end, their goal. As long as they can keep the PS3 pumped out, they're going to infiltrate homes at a rate HD DVD proponents wish they had. I mean, really, you already have more Blu-ray players sold than HD DVD. Couple that with the fact that the amount of movies available for Blu-ray will soon be surpassing HD DVD, you have you "realization" right there--it ain't going to be pretty for HD DVD, especially since Blu-ray movies and players are getting great reviews to boot along with the PS3 launch as noted in my previous post.
Neither format has turned on MMC so that's inconclusive
Sony has a trickle of BD50 which is enouracing but has little effect on movie PQ
Blu-ray discs are more expensive when you compare SL-SL and DL-DL
Don't go one though. I've reached my daily recommended requirement of FUD. Hit me back tomorrow
331k consoles is nice but frankly the PS3 really does have to save Blu-ray and right now it's not looking like that's going to happen. Warner issued a press release stating they were upset about HD movie sales. They were speaking on Blu-rays pathetic sales Marzetta7 not HD DVD which wasn't supposed to be a factor. These studios are pissed right now. Sony sold them on how the PS3 was going to tip the scales and frankly no one cares.
If what you say was true Blu-ray would not be getting dominated in movie sales. That's what counts for the studios...movies sales. You don't seem to understand ...studios that are exclusive to Blu-ray are under pressure right now to explain why they are sticking with an underperforming format. You keep talking about things won't be pretty for HD DVD ...worry about your chosen format. My chosen format doing well. You need to work hard just to get up to parity. Savvy?
Great reviews..blah blah blah. Where are the movie sales??
avg HD DVD rank 533 avg Blu-ray rank 2900+ this is no contest.
Yeah, but with such uncertainty in both format, how things have progressed in the year 2006, based on current status, we do have a clear winner for year 2006. For next year's prospect, we can talk about it by end of next year.
So it really is too early to tell, except for 2006, right?
Here's why I believe Blu-Ray will win. The war is not just about movies, though movies are a big part of it. Blu-Ray has at least two markets where it's hard to argue against it.
1) The obvious use for Blu-Ray is for PS3 Games. That is not going away for many years. Go ahead and argue that the PS3 will flop in favor of xBox, and Sony will pull it off the market. Ha. You cannot convince hardly anyone that would happen. Nintendo survived and did not pull the Game Cube off the market because it was in third place. They kept making their games on those funny little discs. The xBox is not using HD-DVD for games.
2) The other obvious use for Blu-Ray is data storage. All the major PC manufacturers are behind it from what I hear, and rightly so. It offers the most storage space on a disc.
So here are two uses that will continue to demand Blu-Ray discs, and the price will just keep coming down and down as technology conquers all its difficulties. HD-DVD does not have these added markets and depends just on the movie industry. That certainly would be enough; don't get me wrong. Yet these two markets will keep Blu-Ray alive even if the movie industry sides with HD-DVD. HD-DVD certainly could be used for data storage, but why use it when Blu-Ray will cost the same for more capacity? You could dispute that statement, but you shouldn't underestimate what technology can do to overcome problems and cut costs.
So what is critical for Sony? Blu-Ray must stay alive in the movie industry for at least two years in my opinion. In that time, the difficulties will be gone and the price will be equal to HD-DVD. At that point, the added capacity of Blu-Ray may make the difference. Time will tell. We may have two formats for many more years. Or we may have a clear winner, which we will not know for over a year.
Can someone please point out to me where HD DVD has ANY advantages over Blu-ray on Amazon.com. Blu-ray fans have everybit of the same access to pre-order or place orders as HD DVD fans have.
First, Amazon may not be the preferred online retailer to buy BluRay discs from or it may be that Amazon is a preferred retailer for HD-DVD just as it is for Macs (for whatever reason). That means that you can use Amazon to see which models of Macs seem more popular but not its relationship to PCs. Likewise, you can tell popularity between BR titles or HD-DVD titles but not necessarily between the two formats.
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Frankly I don't care about their footprint right now. All I know is that HD DVD sucks less than Blu-ray's does.
That's like saying that the white Zune sucks less than the brown Zune. Suckage is suckage.
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Vinea....man how many excuses are you going to run through? Shifting launch dates and player delays, whining about Firefly? People are calling BS. The freaking PS3 doesn't upscale it doesn't come with a remote or a decent movie. It can't scale to 720p.
Excuses? I'm saying you both are format zealots. I don't need excuses for that. Anyone that's not a zealot (or selling something) has already figured out that nobody is winning and there's no way to tell who might win for at LEAST a year and that's being wildly optimistic. Betamax and VHS fought for most of a decade. SACD and DVD-A were both losers but even that took a little while to determine.
The Firefly comment is regarding our somewhat noisy Browncoat community who made a lot of noise and hoped for far better than Serenity got but the mainstream thought different. If HD-DVDs doesn't have more fans than Firefly its pretty danged tiny. AVS is even tinier so polls there are equally meaningless. Its like Firefly winning a poll among some science fiction fans. So? Mainstream fans vastly preferred other movies.
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I think I'm liking "my" shade of Rose to yours. Blu-ray fans are flat out in denial.
That might have some relevance if I were a Blu-ray fan.
I'm actually a IPTV/VOD fan. Physical disks are so 20th century. But I think I may still have to wait a few years before that market comes to fruit. On the other hand it may be closer than the end of this particular format war.
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They have a 5-6 million console userbase to attack.
For example, I gave MS a 10M console userbase to attack. Still doesn't matter...the strong 360 HD-DVD add-on sale simply indicates that folks (on whatever side) that said that gamers don't watch movies on their consoles were wrong. Unless the majority of those sales are going to PC owners...which I doubt.
So PS3s will have the impact on Blu-Ray sales that Blu Ray fans say it will have. Of course it will take at least a year to see if the PS3 will flop. Earliest you can even think to guess that is after next Christmas. Even if it does end up #3 (like the Game Cube) Sony will have to screw up the PS4 as well to go the way of Sega.
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The PS3 has had marginal effect on movie sales which it needed to have a serious impact.
This statement is on par with folks that think Apple has been slow on its feet in 2006. The thing launched a week and a half ago. Half the machines are likely still on Ebay or shipping. Who the hell buys a movie for a format they don't know if they'll own for months? Who's going to bother buying a movie for a console they're going to EBay? Its not like its going to make it sell any better or worse. Instead of $3000 it would be $3030? Woot!
Your assertion that there should be some tremendous uptick in Blu Ray sales in anticipation of the meager PS3 launch is just plain silly.
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I expect Lionsgate to go neutral and Disney by summer.
The studios are for the most part are already neutral regardless of what they are releasing on what format. Studios are chickens in this fight. They contribute eggs not bacon so they are involved, not committed.
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The numbers aren't lying. Blu-ray is not going to win this battle. The best the can hope for is a co-existence.
The "numbers" say you're full of it. The fight has barely begun and both formats are less successful than the next gen HD format should have been because of the idiocy of a format war.
Besides, WHO CARES WHO WINS? As long as one does in something less than 10 years. A quick Blu Ray death is as good as a quick Blu Ray win.
With a Million Plus BR players in homes by the end of the year, and every studio supporting them I think Sony is headed in the right direction. I don't see how Blu-Ray could loose. The only thing that could save HD-DVD IMO at this point is if someone cracked the DRM on them.
Looks like Blu-Ray backers at CES are gettin it on! Maybe we'll get Blu-Ray drives in Macintels after all? Who knows, but so far 2006 is shaping up to be very exciting...
With a Million Plus BR players in homes by the end of the year, and every studio supporting them I think Sony is headed in the right direction. I don't see how Blu-Ray could loose. The only thing that could save HD-DVD IMO at this point is if someone cracked the DRM on them.
Your logic falls flat under further examination. How can 1 Million PS3s mean anything more than 6 million Xbox 360s? At least with the HD DVD add on you know the primary intention of the device is to playback HD DVD movies. You cannot guarantee that with a PS3 purchase.
HD DVD does not not need saving. You are under the hype of Sony and their marketing.
1. Microsoft hasn't launched the HD DVD addon worldwide yet
2. 2nd Generation hardware from Toshiba is coming.
Blu-ray cannot lose as a technology but it "can" lose as a preferred distribution format. If you cannot see that then get your eyes checked because every source out there is pointing to the same conclusion
Amazon sales - very evident HD DVD advantage
Neilsen ratings- 3:1 advantage in movie sales
Xbox add on- suprassing sales projections
I'll continue to have fun watching you guys come up with excuse after excuse as to why Blu-ray isn't doing well. But you know how it goes....
You're right! Just like that crazy idea I had that people might like to download songs on the internet. All you people that said "ah it'll be 10 years before the internet is fast enough to download songs, ah people don't want to download music they like the feel of the CD's, who would want to listen on a solid state flash drive when they could use a CD player with moving parts that break easily and require shock protection that sucks"
Yeah maybe you're right, I should spend the money to buy a blu-ray and HD DVD player and then the burner when it comes out and go out and buy the discs. And then I'll get to toss them in 5 years when something better comes out. It's so easy, I'll just need to store a bunch of discs and then buy new ones... Why would anyone want to use a system where they could just name a movie and it plays in HD without having to move a muscle?
So it really is too early to tell, except for 2006, right?
Here's why I believe Blu-Ray will win. The war is not just about movies, though movies are a big part of it. Blu-Ray has at least two markets where it's hard to argue against it.
1) The obvious use for Blu-Ray is for PS3 Games. That is not going away for many years. Go ahead and argue that the PS3 will flop in favor of xBox, and Sony will pull it off the market. Ha. You cannot convince hardly anyone that would happen. Nintendo survived and did not pull the Game Cube off the market because it was in third place. They kept making their games on those funny little discs. The xBox is not using HD-DVD for games.
2) The other obvious use for Blu-Ray is data storage. All the major PC manufacturers are behind it from what I hear, and rightly so. It offers the most storage space on a disc.
So here are two uses that will continue to demand Blu-Ray discs, and the price will just keep coming down and down as technology conquers all its difficulties. HD-DVD does not have these added markets and depends just on the movie industry. That certainly would be enough; don't get me wrong. Yet these two markets will keep Blu-Ray alive even if the movie industry sides with HD-DVD. HD-DVD certainly could be used for data storage, but why use it when Blu-Ray will cost the same for more capacity? You could dispute that statement, but you shouldn't underestimate what technology can do to overcome problems and cut costs.
So what is critical for Sony? Blu-Ray must stay alive in the movie industry for at least two years in my opinion. In that time, the difficulties will be gone and the price will be equal to HD-DVD. At that point, the added capacity of Blu-Ray may make the difference. Time will tell. We may have two formats for many more years. Or we may have a clear winner, which we will not know for over a year.
1. jsut because sony will use bluray for games means nothing. a majority of publishers (prob 90%) will never take advantage of that storage for games.
2. didn't sony's last format failure also survived for a while as a storage unit?
no matter when it happens, if the movie industry sides with HD-DVD bluray is done.
Your logic falls flat under further examination. ......
.....You are under the hype of Sony and their marketing.....
I'm not falling under any hype. I'm merely stating that I think Sony has the edge. HD-DVD has a few months exposure to the public before BR was released. If you want to see who is winning just wait about 2 months and see how many NetFlix users are getting BR, and how many are getting HD-DVD. That will tell you who really has the advantage. NetFlix offers both formats now, but the BR players were not as abundant as they will be in two months like I am suggesting, but HD-DVD was available first so obviously they do have a slight lead now, but get a million players out there and we will see.
1. jsut because sony will use bluray for games means nothing. a majority of publishers (prob 90%) will never take advantage of that storage for games.
2. didn't sony's last format failure also survived for a while as a storage unit?
no matter when it happens, if the movie industry sides with HD-DVD bluray is done.
You missed my point. Sony uses Blu-Ray for their PS3 game, which means that many Blu-Ray discs being produced to hold down production costs. Also, Blu-Ray discs being used for data storage mean that many Blu-Ray discs being produced to hold down production costs. The cost of Blu-Ray discs will drop and the media has a solid future, regardless of what movie studios do.
Blu-Ray media does not depend on backing of the movie industry. On the other hand, HD-DVD does depend on the movie industry. No games are distributed on HD-DVD discs, and it is unlikely there will be very much interest in its lower capacity when considering data storage. If I were Toshiba, I'd worry about that point. Movie content is absolutely essential to its survival. It has nowhere else to go.
So it really is too early to tell, except for 2006, right?
Here's why I believe Blu-Ray will win. The war is not just about movies, though movies are a big part of it. Blu-Ray has at least two markets where it's hard to argue against it.
1) The obvious use for Blu-Ray is for PS3 Games. That is not going away for many years. Go ahead and argue that the PS3 will flop in favor of xBox, and Sony will pull it off the market. Ha. You cannot convince hardly anyone that would happen. Nintendo survived and did not pull the Game Cube off the market because it was in third place. They kept making their games on those funny little discs. The xBox is not using HD-DVD for games.
2) The other obvious use for Blu-Ray is data storage. All the major PC manufacturers are behind it from what I hear, and rightly so. It offers the most storage space on a disc.
So here are two uses that will continue to demand Blu-Ray discs, and the price will just keep coming down and down as technology conquers all its difficulties. HD-DVD does not have these added markets and depends just on the movie industry. That certainly would be enough; don't get me wrong. Yet these two markets will keep Blu-Ray alive even if the movie industry sides with HD-DVD. HD-DVD certainly could be used for data storage, but why use it when Blu-Ray will cost the same for more capacity? You could dispute that statement, but you shouldn't underestimate what technology can do to overcome problems and cut costs.
So what is critical for Sony? Blu-Ray must stay alive in the movie industry for at least two years in my opinion. In that time, the difficulties will be gone and the price will be equal to HD-DVD. At that point, the added capacity of Blu-Ray may make the difference. Time will tell. We may have two formats for many more years. Or we may have a clear winner, which we will not know for over a year.
Yes, it's very early in the game and for some company like Sony, it's just a begining. It's ironic how company like Sony is one of the last ones to enter into the BD-DVD hardware market when they should be leading the gang. So are, Sony has been lagging the whole show and more damage was resulted due Sony than anyone else. You all know how long PS3 had been delayed from the initial launch date, and how all the 50GB dual layer BD-DVD from Sony have been less than worthy of Hi-Def sticker. For such reasons, Sony and Blu-Ray as a whole had dropped the ball and it's just too late in the game to recover the faith. I for one, prior supporter/optimist of BD and potential consumer of PS3/BD player had turned away and now supporting the successor, HD-DVD. I'm sure there are many like myself who initially supported BD, but not anymore.
Anyway, the survival of BD in the market as a storage media is still way too early. I bet the flashrom industry will advance faster than the optical media drives, but most importantly, the capacity benefit of 50GB BD-DVD writable media over 40GB HD-DVD(capacity for dual layer writable HD-DVD) will not play a big factor. However, the cost factor will and I'm assuming that HD-DVD rewritable media would also be cheaper to make?
As for PS3 using BD, it just ends there. No other console can play BD-DVD other than PS3, so it would start and end on PS3.
Looking forward to next year, I think Sony would be in serious financial trouble. Sony is losing too much money on every PS3 being sold. I think the PS3 supply shortage maybe a strategic way for Sony to reallocate losses into the next calender report. And maybe that is the main reason for releasing less PS3 than initially planned. Only 250K units at launch and 80K more units in two weeks doesn't add up to 1 million PS3 units by end of the year. I'd be surprised if Sony will release more than 500k units intead. There are 4 more weeks left until the year end, which equals to 160K units +330K units currently on the street would equal to about 500K units total.... well.... Sony just lessen the loss by half as well for the calender report. All in all, for coming year of finacial trouble = less allowable losses per quarter = lesser production of PS3. Whatever Sony has projected for next year will be halfed. BTW, this is in the best senario where the demand still exist for all PS3 being produced. At $500/600 per unit...... would it still sell like hot cakes after the holidays?
Anyway, this is not my problem. I'm just going the enjoy my HD-DVD collection.... Mummy HD-DVD showing in 10 minutes...... later folks...
Your logic falls flat under further examination. How can 1 Million PS3s mean anything more than 6 million Xbox 360s? At least with the HD DVD add on you know the primary intention of the device is to playback HD DVD movies. You cannot guarantee that with a PS3 purchase.
you cant have it both ways man!
6 million xboxs mean JUST that not 6 million HD-DVD add ons!
just as you claim 1 million PS3 sales doesnt mean 1 million BD film buyers m'kay
whats the TOTAL sales foe the HD-DVD add on? got those figures? you have every other figure
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Originally Posted by hmurchison
1. Microsoft hasn't launched the HD DVD addon worldwide yet
nor has the PS3 been launched WW yet... your point?
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Originally Posted by hmurchison
2. 2nd Generation hardware from Toshiba is coming.
trying to have it both ways again, SLAM BD because its only just launched, but then hold up your chosen format because its "second wave is comming" oooooo scary
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Originally Posted by hmurchison
Blu-ray cannot lose as a technology but it "can" lose as a preferred distribution format.
yup id agree with that
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Originally Posted by hmurchison
I'll continue to have fun watching you guys come up with excuse after excuse as to why Blu-ray isn't doing well.
and you think i read this thread cos im a fanboy? its laughable some of the crud that gets said here... but im big enough to inclue myself in that too
on a SERIOUS note, it struck me (as a NON apologetic thought) that "A" reason for slow BD movie sales in light of the PS3 launch might be that (big or) little jonny might not KNOW that santa is bringing a PS3 so why would they (or dad) buy any BD films?
the ebay shipping argument is another point
then theres that 'anti halo' that people throw up about games consoles ONLY being for games... yeah... so maybe the sales of movies reflect that all the gamers bought the PS3 and are too busy blowing up zombies to watch a movie?
isnt it ironic that this is an apple forum and some people cant think different? or in this case think what people actually DO with their purchase and the order in which they do it?
the firefly point is interesting most of the HD releases so far are ass IMO i thought superman returns was balls... but firefly.. well ive never SEEN it or serenity, but i HAVE heard great reviews of it, and on that strength alone at one point it was swaying me towards HD-DVD ! one single disc!! is that all it takes?
if *I* am THAT easily influenced on which format to go for, what happens to the rest of jane and jonny public when they get hold of the all in one that is a PS3? will they run out and buy a HD-DVD player too?
i honestly think its still very much an early adopter market, and posters to this thread have been sucked into believeing that because they have made a commitment to buy or HAVE bought... that EVERYONE else has too.. which is simply not true.
murch. you got the sales of DVD players? World wide?
I'm from the uk and we are further behind than the US in terms of HD content and hardware
and for sometime now I was thinking about getting the PS3 due to backwards compatibility
with PS2 and also to play HD. Looking on sites such as Play.com there is more HD-DVD movies than Blue Ray I assume this is because HD DVD has been around longer?
At the end of the day the only winners are going to be the manufacturers who will produce multformat players or who can make the cheapest drives. I'm torn which way to go
and reading this forum makes it even more confussing!
An XBox 360 core system and the add on HD drive is a tempting combination ...mmm but I begrudge giving MS my money!
. . . most importantly, the capacity benefit of 50GB BD-DVD writable media over 40GB HD-DVD(capacity for dual layer writable HD-DVD) will not play a big factor.
You say dual layer HD-DVD is 40 GB? Do we need to update Wikipedia on this fact? It still says only 30 GB, which is a little bit over half the 50 GB Blu-Ray capacity. I'd say that is a significant difference in storage, unless Wikipedia is incorrect about it.
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Originally Posted by Wikipedia
In comparison to Blu-ray Disc, which also uses a blue laser, HD*DVD has less information capacity per layer (15 gigabytes instead of 25).
. . . (capacity for dual layer writable HD-DVD) will not play a big factor. However, the cost factor will and I'm assuming that HD-DVD rewritable media would also be cheaper to make?
Ah yes, one more point. If someone needs two HD-DVD discs to store his or her data, rather than one Blu-Ray disc, which is cheaper? I have faith in the ability of engineers to solve any Blu-Ray difficulties that are keeping disc prices high now. Price will not be an issue down the road, and if it is, it will be in Blu-Ray's favor.
6 million xboxs mean JUST that not 6 million HD-DVD add ons!
just as you claim 1 million PS3 sales doesnt mean 1 million BD film buyers m'kay
whats the TOTAL sales foe the HD-DVD add on? got those figures? you have every other figure
Yes my point isn't to point out that there will be 6 million HD DVD addon but rather any influence the PS3 will have on movie rental/purchasing will be offset by the HD DVD add on for Xbox. Neither console can win this format battle. They basically negate each other.
I'm pretty interested in how many Xbox add ons MS was able to manufacture. The guesstimates are 200k but who knows really. I'll post something once I find better info.
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Ah yes, one more point. If someone needs two HD-DVD discs to store his or her data, rather than one Blu-Ray disc, which is cheaper? I have faith in the ability of engineers to solve any Blu-Ray difficulties that are keeping disc prices high now. Price will not be an issue down the road, and if it is, it will be in Blu-Ray's favor.
They haven't been all that impressive on price thus far. The only reason why the PS3 is semi affordable is because it's bathing in blood. I'm a bit leery of Blu-ray as a backup medium because the protection layer isn't sturdy enough IMO. Sure you have Durabis and other coatings that help reduce scratches but they don't prevent scratches. I'm not risking 50GB of data on a .1mm protective layer.
You say dual layer HD-DVD is 40 GB? Do we need to update Wikipedia on this fact? It still says only 30 GB, which is a little bit over half the 50 GB Blu-Ray capacity. I'd say that is a significant difference in storage, unless Wikipedia is incorrect about it.
Actually, HD-DVD RAM can hold 20GB per layer. I was assuming it would allow dual layer when available.
Even when only 30GB is allowed, it will not matter too much as long as the price/cost can justify. We've had dual layer 9GB writable media for very long time but majority still use single layer 4.5GB DVD media. Why?..... because it's big enough, faster to burn, but most importantly, cheaper than a quarter.
I've been wondering about xBox 360 and PS3 games. Since these are HD games, I imagine they require more data than the previous generation of games, yes? The xBox still has a DVD optical drive, so discs are limited to 8.5 GB of storage, dual layer, according to Wikipedia. How adequate is 8.5 GB however? Sony has 50 GB available on a dual layer Blu-Ray disc, so I imagine Sony only uses the 25 GB discs.
I don't use a game console, so I am not up on such details. Does MS resort to using 2 or more DVDs for graphics intense games? Or are the data needs of games not so demanding? I've watched my son play some PS2 games, and there appear to be video clips in them.
So then, what is the bottom line? Is the xBox more restricted than the PS3, or are the data requirements of game adequately covered by DVD?
Comments
You know what I've realized Marzetta7. I've been mostly right and you've been mostly wrong. It's 4th qtr and you basically promised us that this would be a time of "Shock and Awe" for Blu-ray. But look at the numbers. Blu-ray's getting demolished. If PS3 owners in large numbers really cared about watching movies on their console we would have seen a spike in sales preceding the launch. Thus we are now 3 weeks from this sweet spot of purchases and Blu-ray is fading like it always has. Bet you didn't think the Shock and Awe would be so dissappointing for you did you?
More like "illusioned" than "realized" there bub. Need we go through the 40 or so pages of posts of this thread and REALLY prove whose been mostly right and wrong? Here's just a few of your wrongs about Blu-ray...
"No Mandatory Managed Copy" -- Wrong
"No 50 GB discs" -- Wrong, You said it was a pipe dream
"Blu-ray discs being more expensive" - Wrong, they're the same price, and a lot of times, cheaper
Need I go on? The only point I've been wrong on as I see it is the fact that Blu-ray didn't have 50 GB discs at launch--information that I attained from HighDefDigest for the Ultraviolet release.
Wow, not even two weeks have gone by since lauch and you are claiming Blu-ray is getting owned. Hmm, what part of 331,000 PS3s sold in less than two weeks don't you understand?
Sony appears from these estimates to be selling roughly 174,000 players a week. Guess what that equates too...yup 1,000,000 players by years end, their goal. As long as they can keep the PS3 pumped out, they're going to infiltrate homes at a rate HD DVD proponents wish they had. I mean, really, you already have more Blu-ray players sold than HD DVD. Couple that with the fact that the amount of movies available for Blu-ray will soon be surpassing HD DVD, you have you "realization" right there--it ain't going to be pretty for HD DVD, especially since Blu-ray movies and players are getting great reviews to boot along with the PS3 launch as noted in my previous post.
Sony has a trickle of BD50 which is enouracing but has little effect on movie PQ
Blu-ray discs are more expensive when you compare SL-SL and DL-DL
Don't go one though. I've reached my daily recommended requirement of FUD. Hit me back tomorrow
331k consoles is nice but frankly the PS3 really does have to save Blu-ray and right now it's not looking like that's going to happen. Warner issued a press release stating they were upset about HD movie sales. They were speaking on Blu-rays pathetic sales Marzetta7 not HD DVD which wasn't supposed to be a factor. These studios are pissed right now. Sony sold them on how the PS3 was going to tip the scales and frankly no one cares.
If what you say was true Blu-ray would not be getting dominated in movie sales. That's what counts for the studios...movies sales. You don't seem to understand ...studios that are exclusive to Blu-ray are under pressure right now to explain why they are sticking with an underperforming format. You keep talking about things won't be pretty for HD DVD ...worry about your chosen format. My chosen format doing well. You need to work hard just to get up to parity. Savvy?
Great reviews..blah blah blah. Where are the movie sales??
avg HD DVD rank 533 avg Blu-ray rank 2900+ this is no contest.
Look at this poll
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=759224
That's domination baby.
Yeah, but with such uncertainty in both format, how things have progressed in the year 2006, based on current status, we do have a clear winner for year 2006. For next year's prospect, we can talk about it by end of next year.
So it really is too early to tell, except for 2006, right?
Here's why I believe Blu-Ray will win. The war is not just about movies, though movies are a big part of it. Blu-Ray has at least two markets where it's hard to argue against it.
1) The obvious use for Blu-Ray is for PS3 Games. That is not going away for many years. Go ahead and argue that the PS3 will flop in favor of xBox, and Sony will pull it off the market. Ha. You cannot convince hardly anyone that would happen. Nintendo survived and did not pull the Game Cube off the market because it was in third place. They kept making their games on those funny little discs. The xBox is not using HD-DVD for games.
2) The other obvious use for Blu-Ray is data storage. All the major PC manufacturers are behind it from what I hear, and rightly so. It offers the most storage space on a disc.
So here are two uses that will continue to demand Blu-Ray discs, and the price will just keep coming down and down as technology conquers all its difficulties. HD-DVD does not have these added markets and depends just on the movie industry. That certainly would be enough; don't get me wrong. Yet these two markets will keep Blu-Ray alive even if the movie industry sides with HD-DVD. HD-DVD certainly could be used for data storage, but why use it when Blu-Ray will cost the same for more capacity? You could dispute that statement, but you shouldn't underestimate what technology can do to overcome problems and cut costs.
So what is critical for Sony? Blu-Ray must stay alive in the movie industry for at least two years in my opinion. In that time, the difficulties will be gone and the price will be equal to HD-DVD. At that point, the added capacity of Blu-Ray may make the difference. Time will tell. We may have two formats for many more years. Or we may have a clear winner, which we will not know for over a year.
Can someone please point out to me where HD DVD has ANY advantages over Blu-ray on Amazon.com. Blu-ray fans have everybit of the same access to pre-order or place orders as HD DVD fans have.
First, Amazon may not be the preferred online retailer to buy BluRay discs from or it may be that Amazon is a preferred retailer for HD-DVD just as it is for Macs (for whatever reason). That means that you can use Amazon to see which models of Macs seem more popular but not its relationship to PCs. Likewise, you can tell popularity between BR titles or HD-DVD titles but not necessarily between the two formats.
Frankly I don't care about their footprint right now. All I know is that HD DVD sucks less than Blu-ray's does.
That's like saying that the white Zune sucks less than the brown Zune. Suckage is suckage.
Vinea....man how many excuses are you going to run through? Shifting launch dates and player delays, whining about Firefly? People are calling BS. The freaking PS3 doesn't upscale it doesn't come with a remote or a decent movie. It can't scale to 720p.
Excuses? I'm saying you both are format zealots. I don't need excuses for that. Anyone that's not a zealot (or selling something) has already figured out that nobody is winning and there's no way to tell who might win for at LEAST a year and that's being wildly optimistic. Betamax and VHS fought for most of a decade. SACD and DVD-A were both losers but even that took a little while to determine.
The Firefly comment is regarding our somewhat noisy Browncoat community who made a lot of noise and hoped for far better than Serenity got but the mainstream thought different. If HD-DVDs doesn't have more fans than Firefly its pretty danged tiny. AVS is even tinier so polls there are equally meaningless. Its like Firefly winning a poll among some science fiction fans. So? Mainstream fans vastly preferred other movies.
I think I'm liking "my" shade of Rose to yours. Blu-ray fans are flat out in denial.
That might have some relevance if I were a Blu-ray fan.
I'm actually a IPTV/VOD fan. Physical disks are so 20th century. But I think I may still have to wait a few years before that market comes to fruit. On the other hand it may be closer than the end of this particular format war.
They have a 5-6 million console userbase to attack.
For example, I gave MS a 10M console userbase to attack. Still doesn't matter...the strong 360 HD-DVD add-on sale simply indicates that folks (on whatever side) that said that gamers don't watch movies on their consoles were wrong. Unless the majority of those sales are going to PC owners...which I doubt.
So PS3s will have the impact on Blu-Ray sales that Blu Ray fans say it will have. Of course it will take at least a year to see if the PS3 will flop. Earliest you can even think to guess that is after next Christmas. Even if it does end up #3 (like the Game Cube) Sony will have to screw up the PS4 as well to go the way of Sega.
The PS3 has had marginal effect on movie sales which it needed to have a serious impact.
This statement is on par with folks that think Apple has been slow on its feet in 2006. The thing launched a week and a half ago. Half the machines are likely still on Ebay or shipping. Who the hell buys a movie for a format they don't know if they'll own for months? Who's going to bother buying a movie for a console they're going to EBay? Its not like its going to make it sell any better or worse. Instead of $3000 it would be $3030? Woot!
Your assertion that there should be some tremendous uptick in Blu Ray sales in anticipation of the meager PS3 launch is just plain silly.
I expect Lionsgate to go neutral and Disney by summer.
The studios are for the most part are already neutral regardless of what they are releasing on what format. Studios are chickens in this fight. They contribute eggs not bacon so they are involved, not committed.
The numbers aren't lying. Blu-ray is not going to win this battle. The best the can hope for is a co-existence.
The "numbers" say you're full of it. The fight has barely begun and both formats are less successful than the next gen HD format should have been because of the idiocy of a format war.
Besides, WHO CARES WHO WINS? As long as one does in something less than 10 years. A quick Blu Ray death is as good as a quick Blu Ray win.
Vinea
Looks like Blu-Ray backers at CES are gettin it on! Maybe we'll get Blu-Ray drives in Macintels after all? Who knows, but so far 2006 is shaping up to be very exciting...
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/st...4241959&EDATE=
http://home.businesswire.com/portal/...75&newsLang=en
http://www.ccnmatthews.com/news/rele...tionFor=574032
Does anyone know if they will come up with an external Bluray or HD drive for mac???
Thanks in advance.
-Qazi-
With a Million Plus BR players in homes by the end of the year, and every studio supporting them I think Sony is headed in the right direction. I don't see how Blu-Ray could loose. The only thing that could save HD-DVD IMO at this point is if someone cracked the DRM on them.
Your logic falls flat under further examination. How can 1 Million PS3s mean anything more than 6 million Xbox 360s? At least with the HD DVD add on you know the primary intention of the device is to playback HD DVD movies. You cannot guarantee that with a PS3 purchase.
HD DVD does not not need saving. You are under the hype of Sony and their marketing.
1. Microsoft hasn't launched the HD DVD addon worldwide yet
2. 2nd Generation hardware from Toshiba is coming.
Blu-ray cannot lose as a technology but it "can" lose as a preferred distribution format. If you cannot see that then get your eyes checked because every source out there is pointing to the same conclusion
Amazon sales - very evident HD DVD advantage
Neilsen ratings- 3:1 advantage in movie sales
Xbox add on- suprassing sales projections
I'll continue to have fun watching you guys come up with excuse after excuse as to why Blu-ray isn't doing well. But you know how it goes....
Yeah maybe you're right, I should spend the money to buy a blu-ray and HD DVD player and then the burner when it comes out and go out and buy the discs. And then I'll get to toss them in 5 years when something better comes out. It's so easy, I'll just need to store a bunch of discs and then buy new ones... Why would anyone want to use a system where they could just name a movie and it plays in HD without having to move a muscle?
So it really is too early to tell, except for 2006, right?
Here's why I believe Blu-Ray will win. The war is not just about movies, though movies are a big part of it. Blu-Ray has at least two markets where it's hard to argue against it.
1) The obvious use for Blu-Ray is for PS3 Games. That is not going away for many years. Go ahead and argue that the PS3 will flop in favor of xBox, and Sony will pull it off the market. Ha. You cannot convince hardly anyone that would happen. Nintendo survived and did not pull the Game Cube off the market because it was in third place. They kept making their games on those funny little discs. The xBox is not using HD-DVD for games.
2) The other obvious use for Blu-Ray is data storage. All the major PC manufacturers are behind it from what I hear, and rightly so. It offers the most storage space on a disc.
So here are two uses that will continue to demand Blu-Ray discs, and the price will just keep coming down and down as technology conquers all its difficulties. HD-DVD does not have these added markets and depends just on the movie industry. That certainly would be enough; don't get me wrong. Yet these two markets will keep Blu-Ray alive even if the movie industry sides with HD-DVD. HD-DVD certainly could be used for data storage, but why use it when Blu-Ray will cost the same for more capacity? You could dispute that statement, but you shouldn't underestimate what technology can do to overcome problems and cut costs.
So what is critical for Sony? Blu-Ray must stay alive in the movie industry for at least two years in my opinion. In that time, the difficulties will be gone and the price will be equal to HD-DVD. At that point, the added capacity of Blu-Ray may make the difference. Time will tell. We may have two formats for many more years. Or we may have a clear winner, which we will not know for over a year.
1. jsut because sony will use bluray for games means nothing. a majority of publishers (prob 90%) will never take advantage of that storage for games.
2. didn't sony's last format failure also survived for a while as a storage unit?
no matter when it happens, if the movie industry sides with HD-DVD bluray is done.
Your logic falls flat under further examination. ......
.....You are under the hype of Sony and their marketing.....
I'm not falling under any hype. I'm merely stating that I think Sony has the edge. HD-DVD has a few months exposure to the public before BR was released. If you want to see who is winning just wait about 2 months and see how many NetFlix users are getting BR, and how many are getting HD-DVD. That will tell you who really has the advantage. NetFlix offers both formats now, but the BR players were not as abundant as they will be in two months like I am suggesting, but HD-DVD was available first so obviously they do have a slight lead now, but get a million players out there and we will see.
1. jsut because sony will use bluray for games means nothing. a majority of publishers (prob 90%) will never take advantage of that storage for games.
2. didn't sony's last format failure also survived for a while as a storage unit?
no matter when it happens, if the movie industry sides with HD-DVD bluray is done.
You missed my point. Sony uses Blu-Ray for their PS3 game, which means that many Blu-Ray discs being produced to hold down production costs. Also, Blu-Ray discs being used for data storage mean that many Blu-Ray discs being produced to hold down production costs. The cost of Blu-Ray discs will drop and the media has a solid future, regardless of what movie studios do.
Blu-Ray media does not depend on backing of the movie industry. On the other hand, HD-DVD does depend on the movie industry. No games are distributed on HD-DVD discs, and it is unlikely there will be very much interest in its lower capacity when considering data storage. If I were Toshiba, I'd worry about that point. Movie content is absolutely essential to its survival. It has nowhere else to go.
So it really is too early to tell, except for 2006, right?
Here's why I believe Blu-Ray will win. The war is not just about movies, though movies are a big part of it. Blu-Ray has at least two markets where it's hard to argue against it.
1) The obvious use for Blu-Ray is for PS3 Games. That is not going away for many years. Go ahead and argue that the PS3 will flop in favor of xBox, and Sony will pull it off the market. Ha. You cannot convince hardly anyone that would happen. Nintendo survived and did not pull the Game Cube off the market because it was in third place. They kept making their games on those funny little discs. The xBox is not using HD-DVD for games.
2) The other obvious use for Blu-Ray is data storage. All the major PC manufacturers are behind it from what I hear, and rightly so. It offers the most storage space on a disc.
So here are two uses that will continue to demand Blu-Ray discs, and the price will just keep coming down and down as technology conquers all its difficulties. HD-DVD does not have these added markets and depends just on the movie industry. That certainly would be enough; don't get me wrong. Yet these two markets will keep Blu-Ray alive even if the movie industry sides with HD-DVD. HD-DVD certainly could be used for data storage, but why use it when Blu-Ray will cost the same for more capacity? You could dispute that statement, but you shouldn't underestimate what technology can do to overcome problems and cut costs.
So what is critical for Sony? Blu-Ray must stay alive in the movie industry for at least two years in my opinion. In that time, the difficulties will be gone and the price will be equal to HD-DVD. At that point, the added capacity of Blu-Ray may make the difference. Time will tell. We may have two formats for many more years. Or we may have a clear winner, which we will not know for over a year.
Yes, it's very early in the game and for some company like Sony, it's just a begining. It's ironic how company like Sony is one of the last ones to enter into the BD-DVD hardware market when they should be leading the gang. So are, Sony has been lagging the whole show and more damage was resulted due Sony than anyone else. You all know how long PS3 had been delayed from the initial launch date, and how all the 50GB dual layer BD-DVD from Sony have been less than worthy of Hi-Def sticker. For such reasons, Sony and Blu-Ray as a whole had dropped the ball and it's just too late in the game to recover the faith. I for one, prior supporter/optimist of BD and potential consumer of PS3/BD player had turned away and now supporting the successor, HD-DVD. I'm sure there are many like myself who initially supported BD, but not anymore.
Anyway, the survival of BD in the market as a storage media is still way too early. I bet the flashrom industry will advance faster than the optical media drives, but most importantly, the capacity benefit of 50GB BD-DVD writable media over 40GB HD-DVD(capacity for dual layer writable HD-DVD) will not play a big factor. However, the cost factor will and I'm assuming that HD-DVD rewritable media would also be cheaper to make?
As for PS3 using BD, it just ends there. No other console can play BD-DVD other than PS3, so it would start and end on PS3.
Looking forward to next year, I think Sony would be in serious financial trouble. Sony is losing too much money on every PS3 being sold. I think the PS3 supply shortage maybe a strategic way for Sony to reallocate losses into the next calender report. And maybe that is the main reason for releasing less PS3 than initially planned. Only 250K units at launch and 80K more units in two weeks doesn't add up to 1 million PS3 units by end of the year. I'd be surprised if Sony will release more than 500k units intead. There are 4 more weeks left until the year end, which equals to 160K units +330K units currently on the street would equal to about 500K units total.... well.... Sony just lessen the loss by half as well for the calender report. All in all, for coming year of finacial trouble = less allowable losses per quarter = lesser production of PS3. Whatever Sony has projected for next year will be halfed. BTW, this is in the best senario where the demand still exist for all PS3 being produced. At $500/600 per unit...... would it still sell like hot cakes after the holidays?
Anyway, this is not my problem. I'm just going the enjoy my HD-DVD collection.... Mummy HD-DVD showing in 10 minutes...... later folks...
Your logic falls flat under further examination. How can 1 Million PS3s mean anything more than 6 million Xbox 360s? At least with the HD DVD add on you know the primary intention of the device is to playback HD DVD movies. You cannot guarantee that with a PS3 purchase.
you cant have it both ways man!
6 million xboxs mean JUST that not 6 million HD-DVD add ons!
just as you claim 1 million PS3 sales doesnt mean 1 million BD film buyers m'kay
whats the TOTAL sales foe the HD-DVD add on? got those figures? you have every other figure
1. Microsoft hasn't launched the HD DVD addon worldwide yet
nor has the PS3 been launched WW yet... your point?
2. 2nd Generation hardware from Toshiba is coming.
trying to have it both ways again, SLAM BD because its only just launched, but then hold up your chosen format because its "second wave is comming" oooooo scary
Blu-ray cannot lose as a technology but it "can" lose as a preferred distribution format.
yup id agree with that
I'll continue to have fun watching you guys come up with excuse after excuse as to why Blu-ray isn't doing well.
and you think i read this thread cos im a fanboy? its laughable some of the crud that gets said here... but im big enough to inclue myself in that too
on a SERIOUS note, it struck me (as a NON apologetic thought) that "A" reason for slow BD movie sales in light of the PS3 launch might be that (big or) little jonny might not KNOW that santa is bringing a PS3 so why would they (or dad) buy any BD films?
the ebay shipping argument is another point
then theres that 'anti halo' that people throw up about games consoles ONLY being for games... yeah... so maybe the sales of movies reflect that all the gamers bought the PS3 and are too busy blowing up zombies to watch a movie?
isnt it ironic that this is an apple forum and some people cant think different? or in this case think what people actually DO with their purchase and the order in which they do it?
the firefly point is interesting
if *I* am THAT easily influenced on which format to go for, what happens to the rest of jane and jonny public when they get hold of the all in one that is a PS3? will they run out and buy a HD-DVD player too?
i honestly think its still very much an early adopter market, and posters to this thread have been sucked into believeing that because they have made a commitment to buy or HAVE bought... that EVERYONE else has too.. which is simply not true.
murch. you got the sales of DVD players? World wide?
more later
and for sometime now I was thinking about getting the PS3 due to backwards compatibility
with PS2 and also to play HD. Looking on sites such as Play.com there is more HD-DVD movies than Blue Ray I assume this is because HD DVD has been around longer?
At the end of the day the only winners are going to be the manufacturers who will produce multformat players or who can make the cheapest drives. I'm torn which way to go
and reading this forum makes it even more confussing!
An XBox 360 core system and the add on HD drive is a tempting combination ...mmm but I begrudge giving MS my money!
. . . most importantly, the capacity benefit of 50GB BD-DVD writable media over 40GB HD-DVD(capacity for dual layer writable HD-DVD) will not play a big factor.
You say dual layer HD-DVD is 40 GB? Do we need to update Wikipedia on this fact? It still says only 30 GB, which is a little bit over half the 50 GB Blu-Ray capacity. I'd say that is a significant difference in storage, unless Wikipedia is incorrect about it.
In comparison to Blu-ray Disc, which also uses a blue laser, HD*DVD has less information capacity per layer (15 gigabytes instead of 25).
. . . (capacity for dual layer writable HD-DVD) will not play a big factor. However, the cost factor will and I'm assuming that HD-DVD rewritable media would also be cheaper to make?
Ah yes, one more point. If someone needs two HD-DVD discs to store his or her data, rather than one Blu-Ray disc, which is cheaper? I have faith in the ability of engineers to solve any Blu-Ray difficulties that are keeping disc prices high now. Price will not be an issue down the road, and if it is, it will be in Blu-Ray's favor.
you cant have it both ways man!
6 million xboxs mean JUST that not 6 million HD-DVD add ons!
just as you claim 1 million PS3 sales doesnt mean 1 million BD film buyers m'kay
whats the TOTAL sales foe the HD-DVD add on? got those figures? you have every other figure
Yes my point isn't to point out that there will be 6 million HD DVD addon but rather any influence the PS3 will have on movie rental/purchasing will be offset by the HD DVD add on for Xbox. Neither console can win this format battle. They basically negate each other.
I'm pretty interested in how many Xbox add ons MS was able to manufacture. The guesstimates are 200k but who knows really. I'll post something once I find better info.
Ah yes, one more point. If someone needs two HD-DVD discs to store his or her data, rather than one Blu-Ray disc, which is cheaper? I have faith in the ability of engineers to solve any Blu-Ray difficulties that are keeping disc prices high now. Price will not be an issue down the road, and if it is, it will be in Blu-Ray's favor.
They haven't been all that impressive on price thus far. The only reason why the PS3 is semi affordable is because it's bathing in blood. I'm a bit leery of Blu-ray as a backup medium because the protection layer isn't sturdy enough IMO. Sure you have Durabis and other coatings that help reduce scratches but they don't prevent scratches. I'm not risking 50GB of data on a .1mm protective layer.
You say dual layer HD-DVD is 40 GB? Do we need to update Wikipedia on this fact? It still says only 30 GB, which is a little bit over half the 50 GB Blu-Ray capacity. I'd say that is a significant difference in storage, unless Wikipedia is incorrect about it.
Actually, HD-DVD RAM can hold 20GB per layer. I was assuming it would allow dual layer when available.
Even when only 30GB is allowed, it will not matter too much as long as the price/cost can justify. We've had dual layer 9GB writable media for very long time but majority still use single layer 4.5GB DVD media. Why?..... because it's big enough, faster to burn, but most importantly, cheaper than a quarter.
I've been wondering about xBox 360 and PS3 games. Since these are HD games, I imagine they require more data than the previous generation of games, yes? The xBox still has a DVD optical drive, so discs are limited to 8.5 GB of storage, dual layer, according to Wikipedia. How adequate is 8.5 GB however? Sony has 50 GB available on a dual layer Blu-Ray disc, so I imagine Sony only uses the 25 GB discs.
I don't use a game console, so I am not up on such details. Does MS resort to using 2 or more DVDs for graphics intense games? Or are the data needs of games not so demanding? I've watched my son play some PS2 games, and there appear to be video clips in them.
So then, what is the bottom line? Is the xBox more restricted than the PS3, or are the data requirements of game adequately covered by DVD?
http://www.engadget.com/2006/11/30/s...n-on-the-outs/