Blu-ray vs. HD DVD (2007)

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  • Reply 3441 of 4650
    e1618978e1618978 Posts: 6,075member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Kolchak View Post


    Please take this elsewhere. 360 games have almost no relevance to the HD format war.



    Actually they do. If the PS3 is a success as a gaming console, then HD-DVD has no chance to survive the onslaught of millions of PS3 players being in people's houses.



    And I think that this is already happening, the PS3 has sold 4.5 million players and the pace will only accelerate as more good games come out. How can HD-DVD stand up to that?
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  • Reply 3442 of 4650
    You are playing with fire, hmurch and bitemymac are going to tell you that HDDVD players have 100% attach rate, where a PS3 has a much lower one because it is a gaming console. It isn't just a a stand alone player, which is the sole purpose of the HD-DVD attachment. Yes, you are right, high PS3 sales will help significantly, but until there is a high attach rate then it won't "kill" HD-DVD. There is the opportunity there, but it hasn't been taken to the extreme yet.. hopefully soon so this "war" of pain to the consumer will end. Having Warner go exclusive to one side or the other would definitely help speed up the process.
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  • Reply 3443 of 4650
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Cam'ron View Post


    You are playing with fire, hmurch and bitemymac are going to tell you that HDDVD players have 100% attach rate, where a PS3 has a much lower one because it is a gaming console. It isn't just a a stand alone player, which is the sole purpose of the HD-DVD attachment. Yes, you are right, high PS3 sales will help significantly, but until there is a high attach rate then it won't "kill" HD-DVD. There is the opportunity there, but it hasn't been taken to the extreme yet.. hopefully soon so this "war" of pain to the consumer will end. Having Warner go exclusive to one side or the other would definitely help speed up the process.



    Even with a low attach rate (1.3 disks per blu-ray unit including PS3, 4.7 disks per HD-DVD unit), the huge anticipated growth of the PS3 installed base will swamp HD-DVD.



    There have been 330K or so HD-DVD players sold, including about half from 360 add-ons, and HD-DVD was released way before blu-ray was. I think that HD-DVD player sales will slow from here on out, because nobody except videophiles has any reason to buy one, and there aren't that many videophiles.
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  • Reply 3444 of 4650
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by e1618978 View Post


    Actually they do. If the PS3 is a success as a gaming console, then HD-DVD has no chance to survive the onslaught of millions of PS3 players being in people's houses.



    And I think that this is already happening, the PS3 has sold 4.5 million players and the pace will only accelerate as more good games come out. How can HD-DVD stand up to that?



    and so Kolchak IS right, it has nothing to do with xbox 360 GAMES.
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  • Reply 3445 of 4650
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by e1618978 View Post


    Even with a low attach rate (1.3 disks per blu-ray unit including PS3, 4.7 disks per HD-DVD unit), the huge anticipated growth of the PS3 installed base will swamp HD-DVD.



    There have been 330K or so HD-DVD players sold, including about half from 360 add-ons, and HD-DVD was released way before blu-ray was. I think that HD-DVD player sales will slow from here on out, because nobody except videophiles has any reason to buy one, and there aren't that many videophiles.



    and a few of those people actually bought TWO HD-DVD players ruining the supposed attach rates.
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  • Reply 3446 of 4650
    vineavinea Posts: 5,585member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by 4metta View Post


    Try to find a better selling game than Halo3.



    All of them given launch day ain't here yet. But WoW BC took the crown from Halo 2 for fastest launch. MS is dumping $10M into advertising to take it back. That's a staggering amount.



    I think it will but man is the hype meter pegged. Looking at the trailers I'm kinda ho hum about it. I like the museum though...but the actual gameplay vids, except for the detached camera playback feature, leave me meh. And while nice, the camera thingy isn't "game play".



    Quote:

    Now if you would like to purchase a PS3 to get a Blu Ray player at a good price, that's another story. But those types of buyers will not be enough to enable the PS3 to surpass Xbox 360 sales. No way. Not with the Blu-Ray/HD-DVD format wars still in progress.



    One, the PS3 is set to get some great games. Most are not my cup of tea and I'll likely get a 360 when Mass Effect launches but its pretty danged hard to argue that the PS3 wont have some great titles of its own. With the price drop and RRoD problems the PS3 has a shot at equalling XBox 360 numbers this XMas.



    Two, the PS3 has a Blu-Ray drive which makes its sales/success relevant to this thread. The 360 only matters from the context of the number of HD-DVD add-ons it sells. Granted the more 360s out there the more likely they will sell drives.



    Three, the 360 Live is most relevant as a competitor to both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray. How much Home might be better or how well Sony decides to develop the media aspect are still TBD. However, beween Live vs Home it seems Home is more next generationish.
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  • Reply 3447 of 4650
    vineavinea Posts: 5,585member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Walter Slocombe View Post


    and so Kolchak IS right, it has nothing to do with xbox 360 GAMES.



    Except you can't talk about the success of the PS3 without considering its competition. In this case the number and quality of exclusives will likely determine the dominant high-def console.



    Sony made 360 games part of the conversation when they coupled console sales to Blu-Ray success. They should have kicked in more money to lock in more exclusives...game studio exclusives, not just movie studio exclusives. If the PS3 had been the dominant console then the format war'd be over.
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  • Reply 3448 of 4650
    kolchakkolchak Posts: 1,398member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by vinea View Post


    Except you can't talk about the success of the PS3 without considering its competition. In this case the number and quality of exclusives will likely determine the dominant high-def console.



    In the HD arena, the 360 is not competition. You're talking about competition in the gaming arena, in which case, you might as well start arguing how the Wii and the PS2 are doing great in sales.
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  • Reply 3449 of 4650
    A review of Samsungs Hybrid player HERE for those interested.
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  • Reply 3450 of 4650
    What? no mention of The EVIL Toshiba
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  • Reply 3451 of 4650
    Sony Rumoured to be selling "CELL" chip production to Toshiba!



    IMO THIS is a crazy move on Sonys part as it will mean that Toshiba will do well and have more money to spend on funding HD-DVD and prolong the ongoing "war" IF the PS3 does well. madness i tells ya!



    but it must also speak of much confidence from Sony about the future of BD.



    OR could it be a hint at the start of some type of agreement between the 2 companies, are we likely to see Tosh bow out? or the PS3 get HD-DVD playback firmaware upgrades?





    {before anyone trys to be condescending, I KNOW its most likely just a production contract and a business move, but its fun to speculate, after all thats why we are here }
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  • Reply 3452 of 4650
    This is not crazy, this is desperate!



    Sony is in pretty bad shape financially, posting zero earnings or even losses for too many seasons in a row, with no change in sight. They're not going bust just yet, but the immediate outlook is not good.

    Have a quick browse through the headlines of The New York Times business section.



    Sony has to sell or close sections which do not make profit or won't likely make any in the near term.



    The PS3 is not doing all that well, treading way behind the Wii and 360. If Sony can ride it out, they'll manage alright, but if the downward streak continues, they might even have to sell the whole PS3 unit... Which of course would be a massive prestige blow.



    Selling the production is one step short of selling the whole thing. It basically means you're cutting future earnings while still holding control over development.

    It's a desperate choice and perhaps the beginning of the end of the PS3 unit?!?



    Everyone at Sony knew that the PS3 would make losses initially - yet potentially good profits in the long term. Unfortunately the whole of Sony is currently not in any financial shape to ride out huge losses. That's their current dilemma. How long will it take to get it profitable? With sales figures falling and no great games titles in sight, the outlook is not too rosy. A lot will depend on the crucial Christmas season.
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  • Reply 3453 of 4650
    e1618978e1618978 Posts: 6,075member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Walter Slocombe View Post


    and so Kolchak IS right, it has nothing to do with xbox 360 GAMES.



    No, he isn't. If the xbox can crush the ps3 (via games), then that is the only hope that HD-DVD has of winning.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hobBIT View Post


    Sony is in pretty bad shape financially



    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=SNE



    earnings before tax = $4.5 billion

    operating cash flow = $4.91 billion



    I don't think that you are right about the financials. Also, the PS3 is tracking at almost exactly the

    same sales numbers as the xbox360 had at the same point after launch. The xbox division has

    a much better chance of being closed, because they are losing a lot of money, and the division

    is not central to the company strategy.



    The Sony game division lost $238 million last quarter, the xbox division lost $1.9 BILLION. Microsoft

    has never made any profit on the game division, total losses to date are over $6 billion for Microsoft.
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  • Reply 3454 of 4650
    kolchakkolchak Posts: 1,398member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by e1618978 View Post


    No, he isn't. If the xbox can crush the ps3 (via games), then that is the only hope that HD-DVD has of winning.



    Again, if you're going to talk games, then shouldn't we open this discussion up to the Wii and the PS2 as well? Don't strong sales of the Wii impact the PS3? Aren't they crushing the PS3 via games? Oh, that's right, we're talking about Blu-ray and HD DVD here. To bring it back on topic, the 360's HD DVD attachment isn't doing wonders for either disc sales or attach rate. End of story.



    As for the sounds of hysteria about the Toshiba/Cell report, read the article. Toshiba wants it to try to catch up on other advanced chip makers. It's very likely they initiated negotiations and not Sony, which has never been into serious chip fabrication anyway. And Toshiba did have a hand in the development of the Cell in the first place. It's not like they're coming out of the blue.
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  • Reply 3455 of 4650
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Kolchak View Post


    Again, if you're going to talk games, then shouldn't we open this discussion up to the Wii and the PS2 as well? Don't strong sales of the Wii impact the PS3?



    Not really - the PS2 generation of game consoles was for gamers only, and I doubt that any serious gamers will go "Wii only" this generation. The Wii is drawing in additional new players that never bought a console before, and the PS2 is selling only to casual gamers at this point, the original market is still being split 360/PS3 (+ a Wii for everyone as an extra console).
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  • Reply 3456 of 4650
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by e1618978 View Post


    I don't think that you are right about the financials.



    There are ways to cover tracks in earning reports of big conglomerates...

    You cannot just look at the total at the end of the year.



    Look at the exact earnings statistics from Sony (Link to Sony Global's own Press Release for 2006):



    Electronics sector:
    - operating loss of 30.9 billion Yen
    Games sector:
    - small profit of 8.7 billion Yen due to PS2 and PSP.
    Movies sector:
    - profit of 27.4 billion Yen

    yet that's a decline from 2005 of 57%
    Financial sector( Sony Life insurance ):
    - profit 188.3 billion Yen.
    Get the picture?



    Sony makes all its money from its life insurance arm.

    Barely brakes even in all its core sections with a declining trend on earnings over the last years in all 3 core sectors.



    Again, they're not going bust any day soon. But they are literally not making money in any of their core sectors electronics, games and (recently) movies with outlooks seemingly not improving. On the contrary.

    Sony has been trying to restructure its cores from the inside out for the last years, chopping away parts, but they haven't managed to turn earnings around yet. They are still in decline.





    On the other hand...



    Microsoft's earnings have been in a steady increment over the last years. Their latest figures shows operating income at $5+ billion per quarter! The Xbox losses don't really hurt them.

    They can definitely ride that one out.



    And Microsoft considers the Xbox a core strategy for future earnings, establishing a 'Microsoft hub' in every home.

    Sony seemingly on the other hand doesn't know where they want to go. They want to be everything to everyone - and end up making little splashes.
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  • Reply 3457 of 4650
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hobBIT View Post


    There are ways to cover tracks in earning reports of big conglomerates...



    if the salesman says its a tree and it looks and smells like a tree... according to you its probably a bucket.
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  • Reply 3458 of 4650
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Walter Slocombe View Post


    if the salesman says its a tree and it looks and smells like a tree... according to you its probably a bucket.







    The point was to find an explanation why Sony would sell its PS3 chip production to Toshiba.



    And the simple explanation IMHO is that Sony is still not doing so well in its 3 core sectors (electronics, gaming, movies) and hence is still 'chopping bits off' to stop the earnings downwards spiral.
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  • Reply 3459 of 4650
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hobBIT View Post






    The point was to find an explanation why Sony would sell its PS3 chip production to Toshiba.



    And the simple explanation IMHO is that Sony is still not doing so well in its 3 core sectors (electronics, gaming, movies) and hence is still 'chopping bits off' to stop the earnings downwards spiral.



    So really all you have said is that Sony have made a loss of 30.9 billion yen and thats "only" in their electronics division...





    but that M$ is ok leaking money from the zune and the xbox because they can afford to.



    Seems like what you want to imply is that if Sony lose money its bad news, but if M$ lose money thats ok they can afford it.



    more FUD?



    Try Reading THIS
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  • Reply 3460 of 4650
    guarthoguartho Posts: 1,208member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hobBIT View Post


    Selling the production is one step short of selling the whole thing. It basically means you're cutting future earnings while still holding control over development.

    It's a desperate choice and perhaps the beginning of the end of the PS3 unit?!?



    This is absolutely right. It's just like how Apple sub-contracts their manufacturing. Apple is teh doom3d.
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