Blu-ray vs. HD DVD (2007)

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  • Reply 21 of 4650
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post


    http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/top.cfm?db=dvd



    12/27 1:42 PST



    Blu-ray has 3 titles in the Top 20 of Amazon's top sellers list. The remaining 17 are all of course HD DVD titles. Supposedly there's a million Playstation 3 worldwide. So ask yourself...why does Blu-ray continue to get stomped?



    If Disney was onboard this battle would be over.



    Blu-Ray gets stomped because it is too expensive.
  • Reply 22 of 4650
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post


    http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/top.cfm?db=dvd



    12/27 1:42 PST



    Blu-ray has 3 titles in the Top 20 of Amazon's top sellers list. The remaining 17 are all of course HD DVD titles. Supposedly there's a million Playstation 3 worldwide. So ask yourself...why does Blu-ray continue to get stomped?



    If Disney was onboard this battle would be over.







    I guess I'll play devil's advocate!



    #1 on that list is #179 in total DVD sales ranking, #5 on that list is #504 in total DVD sales ranking (meaning that ~500 DVD's out sold the top 5 HD DVD's). So I'd SWAG that HD DVD's have captured about <0.01% of total DVD sales (since the top selling DVD's probably out sold the top HD DVD's by probably 10:1 to 100:1 (or more) margin(s))!



    Most PS3's were most probably opened on Christmas Day, and will initially be used for predominately gamez, I'd expect that most people initially bought games to play on their PS3, we won't know for a few weeks at best, what cross over effect the PS3 has on Blu-Ray HD purchases.



  • Reply 23 of 4650
    elixirelixir Posts: 782member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post


    http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/top.cfm?db=dvd



    If Disney was onboard this battle would be over.





    probably
  • Reply 24 of 4650
    hmurchisonhmurchison Posts: 12,438member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by franksargent View Post






    I guess I'll play devil's advocate!



    #1 on that list is #179 in total DVD sales ranking, #5 on that list is #504 in total DVD sales ranking (meaning that ~500 DVD's out sold the top 5 HD DVD's). So I'd SWAG that HD DVD's have captured about <0.01% of total DVD sales (since the top selling DVD's probably out sold the top HD DVD's by probably 10:1 to 100:1 (or more) margin(s))!



    Most PS3's were most probably opened on Christmas Day, and will initially be used for predominately gamez, I'd expect that most people initially bought games to play on their PS3, we won't know for a few weeks at best, what cross over effect the PS3 has on Blu-Ray HD purchases.







    Microsoft can't make enough of the HD DVD add ons for the Xbox 360. There are plenty of Xbox 360s going out the door as well. Folks let's just call this what is is....a Blu-ray shellacking.





    Jules whiffs on HD Blu Movies



    Quote:

    Digital Background has stated that they will bve supporting only Blu-ray.



    I have no idea how big they are BTW.



    Sure enough beginning of this year we saw



    http://www.avn.com/index.php?Primary...tent_ID=254658



    Quote:

    VAN NUYS, Calif. - Digital Playground has become the first adult studio to take a firm stand in the DVD format war. The company said today it will release its next-generation products on Blu-ray Disc instead of rival HD-DVD.



    DP co-founder Joone said there are a number of reasons for the decision, which many other studios are delaying until after it becomes clear which next-gen optical media storage format will garner the most consumer acceptance. In Joone?s mind, there?s never been a question which format will win.



    ?The big thing is that the PlayStation 3 will be out in March or April, and it?s going to support Blu-ray,? Joone said. ?Stand-alone players will be out shortly after that. That?s a lot earlier than was projected before, and it shoots a big hole in the six- to eight-month lead on the market HD-DVD was hoping to have.?



    Ooops ...look at today.



    HD DVD Pirates



    Island Fever 4



    Island Fever 3



    Teen America Mission 3



    So let's see that's Wicked Pictures and Digital Playground with movies set to ship. Vivid is the only company that is still clinging to the Blu-ray hype.
  • Reply 25 of 4650
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post


    Microsoft can't make enough of the HD DVD add ons for the Xbox 360. There are plenty of Xbox 360s going out the door as well. Folks let's just call this what is is....a Blu-ray shellacking.







    I made two points, neither of which you addressed! Something that's approximately equal to ZERO doesn't settle anything, something that's in people's hands for like literally two days doesn't settle anything. I don't have a horse in this race, and I don't really care one way or the other, all that I will say is that I'm not investing my $ in either HD ROM movie format at this time, probably not even this year, probably not ever. I've seen enough 720p and 1080i HD to basically say SO WHAT! IMHO it's (from DVD to HD) not like the jump in picture quality that occured in going from VHS to DVD by a long shot. I mostly watch movies for the story not for the scenery. Animations, now that may be a different story, but again I'll wait until the dust settles. I'll mostly be interested in a burner, when the price comes down a bit, and right now Blu-Ray appears to be winning on that front (available burners, blank media unit price per GB, and SL capacity).







    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post


    Island Fever 4



    Island Fever 3







    I have copies of both in 720p, they've both been out for several months now, so unless these are 1080i or 1080p, been there done that! BTW both play just fine on a Quad G5 (I have a copy of Flip4Mac (WMV Studio Pro HD), can't remember, but I think they are wmv VC-1 files), using a DVI to HDMI cable into a HD TV, and VLC, Quicktime/Flip4Mac, or DVD Player all seem to work with HD content (to varying degrees, it's very rare that I can't open a HD file on my mac).



    Quick pr0n reviews of above: Vivid Sukz!



  • Reply 26 of 4650
    kolchakkolchak Posts: 1,398member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post


    Apple already had enough information to add rudimentary HD DVD support to DVD SP4. They don't have to join every group out there to utilize the product. Fact is DVD Player 4.6.x supports the MPEG2 15GB HD DVD profile that SP4 creates. You can try and take this down an illogical bunny trail all you want but the burden of proof is YOURS to prove that somehow Apple favors Blu-ray over HD DVD. To date they've shipped NO products that contain BDA technology whether it be hardware of software.



    Yeah, obviously Apple isn't working on adding Blu-ray to DVD SP as we speak. I mean, why would they possibly want to do that if they spent money to join the Blu-ray board of directors? Just because you join an organization doesn't mean you want to use its technology, right?



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post


    Microsoft can't make enough of the HD DVD add ons for the Xbox 360. There are plenty of Xbox 360s going out the door as well. Folks let's just call this what is is....a Blu-ray shellacking.



    Same, old Murch. Out of one side of the mouth comes "it's a shellacking for Blu-ray!" You can almost hear the glee. Out of the other side comes, "I don't really care either way. I'll be satisified with whatever wins." Suuuuuure, you don't.



    And I notice you never answered the question: If being a member of the DVD Forum means you automatically support HD DVD, then what is the purpose of the HD DVD Promotion Group? Wouldn't that be redundant if it's all covered by the Forum?
  • Reply 27 of 4650
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by franksargent


    made two points, neither of which you addressed! Something that's approximately equal to ZERO doesn't settle anything, something that's in people's hands for like literally two days doesn't settle anything. I don't have a horse in this race, and I don't really care one way or the other, all that I will say is that I'm not investing my $ in either HD ROM movie format at this time, probably not even this year, probably not ever. I've seen enough 720p and 1080i HD to basically say SO WHAT! IMHO it's (from DVD to HD) not like the jump in picture quality that occured in going from VHS to DVD by a long shot. I mostly watch movies for the story not for the scenery. Animations, now that may be a different story, but again I'll wait until the dust settles. I'll mostly be interested in a burner, when the price comes down a bit, and right now Blu-Ray appears to be winning on that front (available burners, blank media unit price per GB, and SL capacity).



    DVD will outsell both formats for a few years. You cannot argue with the low pricing and high value of today's DVDs. What we AV enthusiasts are keen on is the replacement and initially it looked like Blu-ray would be that format but clearly they were really ready at a hardware or software level. Blu-ray was conceived as a recording medium. I look for HD DVD to close that gap next year.



    Kolchak



    Well as a movie lover I tend to want to just side with the easiest way to get all movies. Buy two players but then I feel conflicted because I don't like Disney/Fox/Sony forcing my hand. So I'm going to avoid Blu-ray for 2007 and we'll see what 2008 offers...perhaps a Universal player if Blu-ray hasn't folded by then.
  • Reply 28 of 4650
    kolchakkolchak Posts: 1,398member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post


    You can't guarantee me anything. Nothing points to Apple favoring Blu-ray over HD DVD. HP is also on the Board of Directors and they haven't shipped one blu-ray item.



    Didn't notice this part of the message earlier. HP may be on the board of directors, but they're also part of the HD DVD Promotion Group. Apple is not. Also, Disney is a diehard supporter of Blu-ray, and if Steve was as format-agnostic as you think, he would have tried to change this since he is on the Disney board after all.



    Quote:

    TDK- Blu-ray ...favors hyping vapor



    TDK does have Blu-ray media on sale right now, so it's not all vapor. And it's already dropped substantially in price. IIRC, they were supposed to be nearly $50 when they were announced months ago. Now they're already down to $20 each, the same price as DVD blanks when Apple shook up the market by installing Superdrives in Powermacs. I can't see any place for those prices to go but down. I wouldn't be surprised if SL Blu-ray media badly undercuts current DL DVD media prices by this time next year. Ditto for the drives, now that the blue laser diode production bugs are starting to be worked out and Sony and the other companies can begin amortizing their development and manufacturing costs over more units.
  • Reply 29 of 4650
    hmurchisonhmurchison Posts: 12,438member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Kolchak View Post


    Didn't notice this part of the message earlier. HP may be on the board of directors, but they're also part of the HD DVD Promotion Group. Apple is not. Also, Disney is a diehard supporter of Blu-ray, and if Steve was as format-agnostic as you think, he would have tried to change this since he is on the Disney board after all.





    TDK does have Blu-ray media on sale right now, so it's not all vapor. And it's already dropped substantially in price. IIRC, they were supposed to be nearly $50 when they were announced months ago. Now they're already down to $20 each, the same price as DVD blanks when Apple shook up the market by installing Superdrives in Powermacs. I can't see any place for those prices to go but down. I wouldn't be surprised if SL Blu-ray media badly undercuts current DL DVD media prices by this time next year. Ditto for the drives, now that the blue laser diode production bugs are starting to be worked out and Sony and the other companies can begin amortizing their development and manufacturing costs over more units.





    Diehard???



    Quote:

    According to an article published by Variety.com, Bob Iger, Disney's CEO, dropped a hint that Disney may end up playing both sides in the high-definition DVD format war, during the firm's annual meeting with shareholders. In response to a shareholder question, Iger said company continues to back Sony's Blu-Ray format, but added, "We probably will publish in both formats."



    Disney bought Pixar and not the other way around. I'm sure Jobs has pull but there's no reason for him to promote HD DVD over Blu-ray. They can sell more software supporting both. The HD DVD Promotions group is great for advertising but all the technical info that a company needs comes from the DVD Forum.



    I welcome Sony pushing the pricing trend on recordable discs. Those discs are loaded with margin and any downward pressure is welcome.
  • Reply 30 of 4650
    marzetta7marzetta7 Posts: 1,323member
    Hahahah. You beat me to it Kolchak! I was the one who started the 2005 thread and then the 2006 thread. Nothing wrong with you starting the new year (2007) thread off with the correct bang--that Apple is going Blu.



    January's MacWorld Expo will be interesting indeed! I give you props for starting early!
  • Reply 31 of 4650
    hmurchisonhmurchison Posts: 12,438member
    I expect to rack up more victories in 2007.





    1 Lionsgate Films will be the first BD Exlusive studio to go neutral.

    2.Disney will have HD DVD movies in stores prior to Xmas 2007

    3. HD DVD will pick up at least two new hardware vendores at CES 2007

    4. Blu-ray will catch HD DVD sales on Amazon by May 2007 at that point they will be very close and remain

    that way.

    5. HD DVD will make further inroads into the computing sector with recorders and half height players.
  • Reply 32 of 4650
    eckingecking Posts: 1,588member
    Time to end this war!



    New Mac Pro = $5000usd



    Drive bay 1 HD-DVD DRIVE

    DRIVE BAY 2 BLU-RAY DRIVE




    Problem Solved.



    Oh wait, now people will just aruge about why apple made HD-DVD on top, instead of Blu-Ray
  • Reply 33 of 4650
    marzetta7marzetta7 Posts: 1,323member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post


    I expect to rack up more victories in 2007.





    1 Lionsgate Films will be the first BD Exlusive studio to go neutral.

    2.Disney will have HD DVD movies in stores prior to Xmas 2007

    3. HD DVD will pick up at least two new hardware vendores at CES 2007

    4. Blu-ray will catch HD DVD sales on Amazon by May 2007 at that point they will be very close and remain

    that way.

    5. HD DVD will make further inroads into the computing sector with recorders and half height players.



    I expect ol Murch to rack up more falsehoods in 2007. For 2006, we had...



    No 50 GB discs ("a pipe dream")

    Blu-ray discs more expensive (not true as disc are the same cost and at times lower than HD DVD)

    No Mandatory Managed Copy on Blu-ray

    Studios Defecting (both hollywood and adult)

    CE Companies Defecting (LG and Samsung)



    I expect HD DVD to fold by the end of 2007 (mid 2008 at the latest) as Toshiba doen't have the resources to continue to take on the entire industry that supports Blu-ray. Expect Blu-ray sales to surpass HD DVD by March, with available titles to surpass HD DVD at this same time frame. 2007, will be dominated by Blu-ray, for sure.
  • Reply 34 of 4650
    hmurchisonhmurchison Posts: 12,438member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by marzetta7 View Post


    I expect ol Murch to rack up more falsehoods in 2007. For 2006, we had...



    No 50 GB discs ("a pipe dream")

    Blu-ray discs more expensive (not true as disc are the same cost and at times lower than HD DVD)

    No Mandatory Managed Copy on Blu-ray

    Studios Defecting (both hollywood and adult)

    CE Companies Defecting (LG and Samsung)



    I expect HD DVD to fold by the end of 2007 (mid 2008 at the latest) as Toshiba doen't have the resources to continue to take on the entire industry that supports Blu-ray. Expect Blu-ray sales to surpass HD DVD by March, with available titles to surpass HD DVD at this same time frame. 2007, will be dominated by Blu-ray, for sure.



    I certainly didn't say that BD50 discs were not "ever" coming. I did not think they'd have them in quantity for 2006. They've outdone my expectations there.



    Blu-ray "is" more expensive when you move to BD50. There are currently no places that I know of that will replicate BD50 for you. Thus you, Marzetta7, have not a clue as to what the true cost of them is. We know the HD30 is only a few pennies more than SL BD25. I dont' have my hopes up that we'll see affordable BD50 production for mere mortals until well into 2007.



    Neither format has MMC right now ...jury's still out.



    Studio defections, if they happen, will come next year I've been clear on that. Jury's out.



    LG and Samsung both announced plans to work on Universal players only to recant. Coincidence or pressure? You decide.





    Here's what YOU told us.



    "The 4th brings the shock and awe"



    Well 4th qtr is almost bye bye...the PS3 has been delivered and Blu-ray is still behind. I'd say you have more road to go to improve your accuracy than I do.
  • Reply 35 of 4650
    kolchakkolchak Posts: 1,398member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by marzetta7 View Post


    Expect Blu-ray sales to surpass HD DVD by March, with available titles to surpass HD DVD at this same time frame.



    In at least one important respect, that's already happened. Netflix lists almost 150 Blu-ray titles, versus just over 130 HD DVD. If people have all those Playstations laying around but still don't want to shell out for new movies, this makes it all the easier for them to try out the new format. Adding to that, if the hardcoating on the Blu-ray discs works as promised, it should be much more attractive to Netflix. Anyone who's ever rented from Netflix can attest to how badly scratched many of the DVDs are, and HD DVD is no more durable than plain DVDs. In fact, one would suspect HD DVD may actually be more susceptible to read errors due to surface scratches because of the smaller pits compared to DVDs. Preliminary reports from renters do seem to indicate HD DVDs are suffering as much damage as DVDs in the customer handling and shipping process, while Blu-ray discs aren't.
  • Reply 36 of 4650
    hmurchisonhmurchison Posts: 12,438member
    Like DVDs though HD DVD can be repaired. Blu-ray cannot.
  • Reply 37 of 4650
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post


    Like DVDs though HD DVD can be repaired. Blu-ray cannot.



    Which is a moot point if they don't scratch in the first place.



    Have you ever used any of those disc repair kits, though? They're terrible. I had an old PlayStation game that had two scratches and would play past a certain boss. I used a repair kit, and it left thousands of scratches all over the disc. It made things worse. I ended up having to torrent the disc and burn it (good thing I modded my PS1 back in high school).
  • Reply 38 of 4650
    hmurchisonhmurchison Posts: 12,438member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by gregmightdothat View Post


    Which is a moot point if they don't scratch in the first place.



    Have you ever used any of those disc repair kits, though? They're terrible. I had an old PlayStation game that had two scratches and would play past a certain boss. I used a repair kit, and it left thousands of scratches all over the disc. It made things worse. I ended up having to torrent the disc and burn it (good thing I modded my PS1 back in high school).





    Blu-ray is "scratch resistant" but not "scratch proof" . I remember reading a thread from a guy who owned a place that routinely fixed discs. Usually console games as the discs are $60 for new titles. Clearly he's a bit biased but he did make a good point that if you do manage to penetrate the protective film on a BD disc it's toast.
  • Reply 39 of 4650
    kolchakkolchak Posts: 1,398member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post


    Like DVDs though HD DVD can be repaired. Blu-ray cannot.



    How many DVDs do you think Netflix "repairs"? I'll give you a hint: It resembles a circle. If they did, I wouldn't be getting so many badly scratched ones. I've borrowed DVDs from the library that had been "repaired." Instead of a few scratches, the entire surface was scratched in an orbital pattern, just as GMDT wrote. Face it, when a DVD or HD DVD becomes unplayable (for which I've seen Netflix quoted as happening in as few as 15 rentals), Netflix will simply trash it. Since Blu-ray discs are that much harder to scratch to begin with and don't cost any more than HD DVDs, which do you think is the better value for them?
  • Reply 40 of 4650
    hmurchisonhmurchison Posts: 12,438member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Kolchak View Post


    How many DVDs do you think Netflix "repairs"? I'll give you a hint: It resembles a circle. If they did, I wouldn't be getting so many badly scratched ones. I've borrowed DVDs from the library that had been "repaired." Instead of a few scratches, the entire surface was scratched in an orbital pattern, just as GMDT wrote. Face it, when a DVD or HD DVD becomes unplayable (for which I've seen Netflix quoted as happening in as few as 15 rentals), Netflix will simply trash it. Since Blu-ray discs are that much harder to scratch to begin with and don't cost any more than HD DVDs, which do you think is the better value for them?



    What I think doesn't matter as clearly they support both.
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