Blu-ray vs. HD DVD (2007)

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  • Reply 81 of 4650
    kolchakkolchak Posts: 1,398member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bitemymac View Post


    If you think the BD players are unfairly priced and higher, then buying BD movies would shock you once more. In average, BD movie titles cost more than the average HD-DVD movies. Of course, if you're buying a combo HD-DVD(which I hate supporting), which has DVD layer plus the HD-DVD layer on the flip side, would cost about the same as the BD movie prices, but most HD-DVD (dual layer) movies are cheaper.



    I'm sorry, but I'm not seeing this. A quick perusal of the respective sections at Amazon shows most Blu-ray movies are $30 or $40 retail, just like most HD DVD movies (non-combo). And both formats are 30% off at Amazon.
  • Reply 82 of 4650
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bitemymac View Post




    And you're right about Hi-Def format popularity only in the enthusiast community at this time, however, the potential of reaching the key price point to lure in consumers is more feasible with HD-DVD than BD. You can find standalone DVD players as low as $399, and will get even cheaper in the $299 within next 6 months. ,,,Eitherway, HD-DVD has won the Hi-Def format war in 2006, even with the great trojan horse from Sony.



    At this time the pricepoint doesn't matter to the average consumer as they don't have a HD TV. You are right though about 2006. But that's like saying in a mile race one contest broke from the starting gate first. It's starting to look like whichever format backers go bankrupt last will be less the looser. HDTV prices have dropped but must drop even more dramatically before there's a critical mass of sets out there for consumers to embrace a HD DVD format.
  • Reply 83 of 4650




    Well I was at Wal-Mart last night, the had two PS3's in stock, almost bought one! But at $600+tax (7%) that's $642! Came to my senses, and walked away, why you ask? Price for one, then I'd have to invest in Bly-Ray movies and (some) games (more money, at one time I had over 500 DVD's, so that's like $10K), and finally I do have a HDTV but it's only 1366Hx768V (I believe), so if I want the full 1080p (1920x1080), I'd need to invest in a new HDTV (more money, and I'd like something in the 42" to 46" range, so that's like an additional $2K).



    Seriously, I do think HD movies will be slow to catch on!



  • Reply 84 of 4650
    Plus Frank you'll probably find that for best sound your receiver needs HDMI inputs, so for most people that's a potential upgrade cost.



    For the average family with two to three kids, one or two car payments and, if they're lucky, house payments otherwise rent, the cost is pretty steep right now.
  • Reply 85 of 4650
    shetlineshetline Posts: 4,695member
    Ah, 2007! The year of the triumph of HD DVD.
  • Reply 86 of 4650
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by shetline View Post


    Ah, 2007! The year of the triumph of HD DVD.



    Considering that DVD just triumphed over VHS about a month ago, I think you're going to have to wait until around 2016 for that to happen.
  • Reply 87 of 4650
    jvbjvb Posts: 210member
    Triumph is not even close, for either of these formats. AACS was just cracked on the Doom9 forums for HDDVD. Bluray also uses AACS, so that will come crumbling down soon. It was bound to happen, this was just earlier than anyone expected. Until the common consumer is given a REAL reason to use these new formats, I see no reason why DVD could not live happily for another 5 years.
  • Reply 88 of 4650
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jvb View Post


    Triumph is not even close, for either of these formats. AACS was just cracked on the Doom9 forums for HDDVD. Bluray also uses AACS, so that will come crumbling down soon. It was bound to happen, this was just earlier than anyone expected. Until the common consumer is given a REAL reason to use these new formats, I see no reason why DVD could not live happily for another 5 years.







    OK, so now that it's actually 2007 this thread is now official?



    I think shetline was being sarcastic?



    But cracking the HD DRM schemes may be a critical element in HD media sales (for both formats). Blu-Ray has additional DRM schemes that HD-DVD doesn't have, but someone correct me if I'm wrong.



    To take one scenario, suppose HD DRM is cracked and HD storage (burners and media) become the norm, then a fraction of HD users would rent and copy, instead of purchase HD media (similar to what some DVD users do today). This would have some impact on total HD ROM media sold.



    Or take another scenario, HD DRM isn't cracked, and HD OTAB isn't DRM'ed (like what alot of it is today, or it's cracked) and HD storage becomes the norm, then a fraction of users may just record and rip HD OTAB and forego HD ROM purchases. 720P or 1080i still looks pretty good WRT SD DVD's.



    The other scenarios like HD library costs (given most users investments in DVD libraries, given existing DVD's rent, recompress, and rip status, cheap SL DVD blank media prices), HD HW costs, two HD formats, and that OTAB won't be the norm until 2009, suggests that HD ROM market penetration will be a tough road ahead.



    So basically, I'm guessing HD DVD's (both formats together or whichever format "wins") won't outsell SD DVD's until something like 2015.



  • Reply 89 of 4650
    shetlineshetline Posts: 4,695member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by franksargent View Post


    I think shetline was being sarcastic?



    A combination of sarcasm and wishful thinking, since I just bought an HD DVD player... and even then, my flip remark was about the idea of HD DVD triumphing over Blu-Ray, not over standard DVD, as a bunch of people seem to have taken it. Any HD format beating standard DVD is obviously a long way off.
  • Reply 90 of 4650
    sdw2001sdw2001 Posts: 18,016member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by gloss View Post


    As far as that goes, the Wii is blowing them all away. So...yes, I've seen a console as popular as the PS3.



    People who own PS2s are not guaranteed purchasers for the PS3. The PS2 offered DVD, which was a technology that showed immediate advantages even on older televisions. Blu-Ray is only advantageous if you've got a large HDTV to view it on, which means that the vast majority of consumers won't care.



    Keep in mind that the PS2 also launched at half the price of the PS3, $299.



    There's nothing guaranteed about Blu-Ray at this point. HD-DVD is simply at a better market position, with more affordable hardware and equivilant picture quality.



    edit: spelling and corrections.



    1. Which console has been that popular? Why will the Wii "blow them all away?"

    2. No, but it makes it more likely.

    3. And a standalone HD-DVD player for $1000 will be advantageous? They both have the same problem.

    4. Your last point is totally unsupported. Why is it in a better market position?. You offer no evidence of that whatsoever.



    bytemymac:



    Quote:

    Well... I'm not sure how closely you've been following the gaming console market, but Wii has been kicking PS3's butt since day one and the demand has gone up even higher. People have to wake up and smell the coffee, because PS3 isn't PS2. A simple reason is that PS2 wasn't selling at $499/$599 tag, and it doesn't matter what HiDef dvd format PS3 can play..... Basically, PS3 is too expensive as a gaming console, but a cheap BD player. What demographics of consumers can this product be matched to? Only those enthusiasts.... and they are numbered and so is PS3 sales.



    Probably closer than you have. You also apparently cannot understand the point that you can't yet judge the PS3's sales because of limited supply. You also go on to make the common mistake of claiming "it's too expensive." At this point, that market says otherwise. It turns out there are lots of people willing to pay that price. One anecdotal point on that topic: When the Intellivsion came out in the 1980 it cost $300.00. That equates to $762.00 today. It sold well until the video game market crashed completely, and even though the Atari 2600 was less than half the price.
  • Reply 91 of 4650
    sdw2001sdw2001 Posts: 18,016member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post


    That's the hype of Sony marketing. The Playstation 2 was a killer product. I'll admit that it make the Xbox look like the rookie product it was. However Microsoft has made much more improvements IMO opinion from this generation than Sony has thus far. Of course they had a headstart so I'm willing to give the PS3 time.



    http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=158897930&play=1#





    Wii - 1.8million

    PS3 - 750k

    360 - 2million



    NPD numbers. Not wholly accurate but close enough to see a trend. The Wii and Xbox 360 are taking advantage of the fact that they aren't trying to stuff a Cell proc and Blue laser into a box.



    I just spoke with a friend that bough a 42" LCD and Xbox 360 for Xmas. She said that she wants to order and Xbox HD DVD add on because its so cheap.







    Actually i've seen bunches of reports stating that people are walking into stores and finding PS3 available. The demand is no longer there for ebay which means Sony has pretty much saturated the "gotta have it" maket. The PS3 is going to be important to the battle but this is a war that cannot be won and will not be won. Universal players will rule the day in a couple of years. What HD DVD fans are fighting for now is getting some studio support parity for the players that are delivered that won't be Universal.



    I don't know of anyone that can find them in stores right now, except for bundled versions. I also repeat...you can't see any "trend" at all because of the lack of supply. Check out http://ps3finder.com/ and tell me that's it's available in quantity. Yes, the ebay market has tanked. But that's because people flooded it with the systems. You may be right about Universal players, but my feeling is that one format or the other will win. I think the early advantage is Blu-Ray.
  • Reply 92 of 4650
    sdw2001sdw2001 Posts: 18,016member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Elixir View Post


    this guy is off by so much its not even funny.



    did you just wake up recently? who cares what the ps2 did because if you mess up this console's generation bad enough people aren't going to hop on board. no gaming machine has been number 1 three generations in a row to let you know since you're so keen on history repeating.



    the xbox was microsofts first attempt at producing a machine, you shouldn't' forget that. this gen is isn't like last time, publishers didn't really know what to expect from microsoft, leaving the xbox lacking games but this time almost every one has hopped on board (GTA, virtue fighter 5) just to name two huge titles that were once exlcusive to the Playstation brand.





    Fourth: the xbox360 sold a lot more during its launch. if the ps3 continues to have manufacturing issues they may sell a lot less next year than the 360 did. remember the 360 launched in europe, japan, and the U.S all at the same time, sony hasn't even launched the ps3 in europe yet!



    "This guy" has been a member of of AI since January of 2000. Just FYI.



    Secondly, I'm not quite sure what you're arguing. Are you 13 years old, perhaps? You seem to be focusing on availability of games as the sole driving factor in a console's success. The reality is both consoles will have comparable game availability. So, I know you're wacking off to the thought of "virtue fighter" [sic] on xBox 360, but try and take it easy. Lastly, you cannot compare sales of the 360 to the PS3 yet. There's no reason to assume the PS3 won't ramp up in terms of production. That is, unless you and your Mom know differently.
  • Reply 93 of 4650
    sdw2001sdw2001 Posts: 18,016member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by marzetta7 View Post


    Well stated. As you can see from the post above mine, some people here think the format war is all but over, but in reality, it has just begun.



    Just to add to your sound logic, not only does the BDA have the bigge consortium, but also have the EXCLUSIVE power of Fox, Disney, MGM, and Lionsgate. Blu-ray definitely has a better chance in the studio side, the CE side, and the IT side. In summation, the industry in NOT on HD DVD's side.



    Exactly. HD-DVD does have some advantages right now, including price. But, just about every other variable tilts in favor of Blu-Ray right now: The studios, storage capacity, PS3, and seemingly, mindshare in the general public. In my opinion, the movie availability is the most important. Unlike video games, there will be a real difference in that area.
  • Reply 94 of 4650
    kolchakkolchak Posts: 1,398member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post


    http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=158897930&play=1#





    Wii - 1.8million

    PS3 - 750k

    360 - 2million



    NPD numbers. Not wholly accurate but close enough to see a trend. The Wii and Xbox 360 are taking advantage of the fact that they aren't trying to stuff a Cell proc and Blue laser into a box .



    That makes the PS3 sound like it's doing pretty good. Out for 1/13th of the time of the 360 and already sold 1/3 of the number.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post


    I just spoke with a friend that bough a 42" LCD and Xbox 360 for Xmas. She said that she wants to order and Xbox HD DVD add on because its so cheap.



    Sounds to me like someone who failed Economics 101. How can something be "so cheap" when she needed to buy the 360 to begin with and the combination costs as much as the "expensive" PS3?
  • Reply 95 of 4650
    mystmyst Posts: 112member
    Why compare PS3 sales to Wii (a proprietary irrelevant format) or the Xbox 360 (DVD)? The sales of the PS3 should be compared to those of the HD-DVD add-on of the 360; which doesn't seem to be doing so well.



    In volume, the PS3 may be behind the sales of the other consoles, but the demand is still there clearly. Though the PS3 is much harder to find, according to sales reports (the most recent I could find) the PS3 is beating the add-on by a margin of 5 to 1.



    The PS3 will be a big factor in the format wars for two reasons:



    1) Economies of scale - the PS3 will help bring down prices of Blu-ray drive components and Blu-ray media alike by increasing product of the media (even if we're talking games) and obviously the component usage. It's basic business that this will work to Blu-ray's advantage without any spin.



    2) Easier to try the media - if there are Blu-ray players [PS3s] in someone's household, they are far more likely to pick it as the HD format just because they've already bought it in some form and it is already there.



    I personally don't have a side decided as I don't really see the point of putting faith in one side, but looking at the technical specs of Blu-ray it looks superior, and from a business standpoint has an edge. Early to market has always been a false security to many formats or products in the past (see Dreamcast or Betamax),



    I'll welcome either champion of the future, but right now Blu-ray looks like the safer investment and I personally will be buying/renting Blu-ray when my PS3 arrives in the next few days.
  • Reply 96 of 4650
    addaboxaddabox Posts: 12,665member
    OK, that clenches it. Now that SDW2001 has come out for Blu-Ray, HD-DVD can't miss.
  • Reply 97 of 4650
    elixirelixir Posts: 782member
    Ps3's are sitting on shelves, floors across the country.



    i dont even have to post links to stories or reports, you can easily find them if you desire to. best buy had a new years eve relaunch of ample amounts of ps3's and as of today most stores still have them available.



    the Wii is selling like hottcakes in japan and are still hard to find even here in the states. go check your local store if you dont believe it.
  • Reply 98 of 4650
    mystmyst Posts: 112member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Elixir View Post


    Ps3's are sitting on shelves, floors across the country.



    i dont even have to post links to stories or reports, you can easily find them if you desire to. best buy had a new years eve relaunch of ample amounts of ps3's and as of today most stores still have them available.



    the Wii is selling like hottcakes in japan and are still hard to find even here in the states. go check your local store if you dont believe it.



    And yet you continue to compare the Wii to the PS3? There's no format war unless sony intends to make that mini-disc the next generation of HD. I don't think anyone expects the PS3 to outsell the Wii (at least in the short term), but I don't really think the Wii is that Next-Gen besides a new controller -- it's like cheering the Barbie dress-up laptop is outselling the MacBook.



    As for PS3 demand, there's still the perception of lack of supply; when a promotion occurs like Futureshop [in Canada] announcing 1000 PS3s available online, they sold out in 1.5 hours [to Canadian residents only -- we've actually had better availability than most of the states]. When they start promoting PS3 is in stock, they sell. I'm sure the 20 foot high pyramid of Xbox 360s in every Best Buy helps show the dominance of HD DVD.
  • Reply 99 of 4650
    marzetta7marzetta7 Posts: 1,323member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Myst View Post


    I don't think anyone expects the PS3 to outsell the Wii (at least in the short term), but I don't really think the Wii is that Next-Gen besides a new controller -- it's like cheering the Barbie dress-up laptop is outselling the MacBook.



    ...I'm sure the 20 foot high pyramid of Xbox 360s in every Best Buy helps show the dominance of HD DVD.



    Hahahaha. LOL! I like, I like it.
  • Reply 100 of 4650
    hmurchisonhmurchison Posts: 12,425member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Kolchak View Post


    That makes the PS3 sound like it's doing pretty good. Out for 1/13th of the time of the 360 and already sold 1/3 of the number.





    Sounds to me like someone who failed Economics 101. How can something be "so cheap" when she needed to buy the 360 to begin with and the combination costs as much as the "expensive" PS3?





    Because she had no idea that she could add HD movie playback for so cheap. The cost of the Xbox was free as it came with her 42" screen in a promo. Thus to her it's simply a $189 cost to get the latest in HD tech. We're both ordering when these buggers come back in stock.
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