Blu-ray vs. HD DVD (2007)

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  • Reply 1261 of 4650
    jlljll Posts: 2,713member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Kolchak View Post


    So how about looking at the full list rather than a cherry-picked few? You want high profile flops? Try Sinbad. The Last Castle. The Island. Stepford Wives. Lucky Numbers. Bagger Vance. The Time Machine. Spielberg's own A.I. and Munich. Or the biggest flop they've had in years, Flushed Away. None of those movies swung to a profit even after DVD sales.



    Munich was a flop? IMHO it is one of Spielberg's best dramas.
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  • Reply 1262 of 4650
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by vinea View Post


    Not really. Critical success is objectively measured by awards. Box office success is another objective measure.



    Vinea



    what you say is true... but then so is what i said.



    its a matter of opinion



    after all critics are only opinions in print
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  • Reply 1263 of 4650
    kolchakkolchak Posts: 1,398member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by JLL View Post


    Munich was a flop? IMHO it is one of Spielberg's best dramas.



    If a movie costs $75 million and pulls in less than $48 million at the box office, then yes, it's a flop. DVD sales usually match the box office but profit doesn't show up until a movie makes 3x the budget. Basic arithmetic: 2x48,000,000 < 3x75,000,000. Dreamworks took a bath on that one. Critical success is nice, but at the end of the day, you have to be able to pay the bills.
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  • Reply 1264 of 4650
    vineavinea Posts: 5,585member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Kolchak View Post


    If a movie costs $75 million and pulls in less than $48 million at the box office, then yes, it's a flop. DVD sales usually match the box office but profit doesn't show up until a movie makes 3x the budget. Basic arithmetic: 2x48,000,000 < 3x75,000,000. Dreamworks took a bath on that one. Critical success is nice, but at the end of the day, you have to be able to pay the bills.



    Munich Production Costs: $70M



    Domestic BO: $47M

    Foreign BO: $83M

    Total BO: $130M



    A.I Production Costs: $100M



    Domestic BO: $78M

    Foreign BO: $157M

    Total BO: $235M



    Sinbad Production Costs: $60M



    Domestic BO: $26M

    Foreign BO: $47M

    Total BO: $73M



    Yep, the took a bath on Bagger Vance and others. So? All studios have flops.



    Given the original statement was:



    "Take a look at Dreamworks productions for the past decade. You'll barely find a handful with recognizable names. The rest sunk without a trace or at best were high profile flops."



    the only need is to show more than a handful with recognizable names. Hence "cherry picking". Like all studios they have movies for oscar nods and movies to mint money.



    Dreamworks had one heavy hitter that kept them in the game. Viacom shows more revenue and profit this past qtr that they attribute partially to picking up Dreamworks.



    Vinea
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  • Reply 1265 of 4650
    I know some of the regular posters here in this thread have already bought an HDD format player, while others, myself included, prefer to stick with SD-DV until this whole mess sorts itself out. Has this whole HD format war plus the question as to whether HD formats will ever be more than a niche product changed your DVD buying pattern?



    I know in my case it has. Normally I buy a DVD if I'm sure I'll watch it more than once. This is based either on seeing the movie in a theatre, several reviews or word-of-mouth. If I rented, it was at a local Blockbuster, which has a pretty lame selection. However, after upgrading to a plasma and upconverting DVD in November, I reactivated my Netflix membership and since then haven't bought a single DVD. Of all the DVDs I've rented during that period, only one-- Babel-- is one I'd consider buying. Of the DVDs showing as upcoming release I'll definitely purchase The Queen and WKRP in Cincinnati, First Season-- as for the rest forget it. So from my viewpoint, this silly format war is costing studios as I'm not really buying DVDs in the quantity that I had before.



    IMO, one thing that has studios drooling with HD is the mistaken belief that people will upgrade their DVD collection with HDs. It won't happen here based on my experience of switching from LD to DVD, where I bought only 5 DVD of LDs I already had primarily as the LDs were among my favorites and purchase early in pan & scan well before a LB version was available. Otherwise I still happy watching the LDs I have.
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  • Reply 1266 of 4650
    spindriftspindrift Posts: 674member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by OldCodger73 View Post


    I know some of the regular posters here in this thread have already bought an HDD format player, while others, myself included, prefer to stick with SD-DV until this whole mess sorts itself out. Has this whole HD format war plus the question as to whether HD formats will ever be more than a niche product changed your DVD buying pattern?



    I know in my case it has. Normally I buy a DVD if I'm sure I'll watch it more than once. This is based either on seeing the movie in a theatre, several reviews or word-of-mouth. If I rented, it was at a local Blockbuster, which has a pretty lame selection. However, after upgrading to a plasma and upconverting DVD in November, I reactivated my Netflix membership and since then haven't bought a single DVD. Of all the DVDs I've rented during that period, only one-- Babel-- is one I'd consider buying. Of the DVDs showing as upcoming release I'll definitely purchase The Queen and WKRP in Cincinnati, First Season-- as for the rest forget it. So from my viewpoint, this silly format war is costing studios as I'm not really buying DVDs in the quantity that I had before.



    IMO, one thing that has studios drooling with HD is the mistaken belief that people will upgrade their DVD collection with HDs. It won't happen here based on my experience of switching from LD to DVD, where I bought only 5 DVD of LDs I already had primarily as the LDs were among my favorites and purchase early in pan & scan well before a LB version was available. Otherwise I still happy watching the LDs I have.



    I have also stopped buying DVDs. I don't see the point if I'm going to get HDDVD / Blueray once the format war is over, or dual format becomes the norm. I have no intention of updating my current DVD collection to HD once I do invest, albeit a few of my most favourite films. I know I'm not alone here, so I imagine the studios will start feeling the pinch. I don't see how this format war can go on too long.
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  • Reply 1267 of 4650
    wilcowilco Posts: 985member
    A.I. - ok film ruined by spielberg (he finnished Kubricks film)



    All Kubrick had was a treatment, and illustrations -- which were turned over to SS after Kubrick's death.
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  • Reply 1268 of 4650
    bitemymacbitemymac Posts: 1,147member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by OldCodger73 View Post


    I know some of the regular posters here in this thread have already bought an HDD format player, while others, myself included, prefer to stick with SD-DV until this whole mess sorts itself out. Has this whole HD format war plus the question as to whether HD formats will ever be more than a niche product changed your DVD buying pattern?



    I know in my case it has. Normally I buy a DVD if I'm sure I'll watch it more than once. This is based either on seeing the movie in a theatre, several reviews or word-of-mouth. If I rented, it was at a local Blockbuster, which has a pretty lame selection. However, after upgrading to a plasma and upconverting DVD in November, I reactivated my Netflix membership and since then haven't bought a single DVD. Of all the DVDs I've rented during that period, only one-- Babel-- is one I'd consider buying. Of the DVDs showing as upcoming release I'll definitely purchase The Queen and WKRP in Cincinnati, First Season-- as for the rest forget it. So from my viewpoint, this silly format war is costing studios as I'm not really buying DVDs in the quantity that I had before.



    IMO, one thing that has studios drooling with HD is the mistaken belief that people will upgrade their DVD collection with HDs. It won't happen here based on my experience of switching from LD to DVD, where I bought only 5 DVD of LDs I already had primarily as the LDs were among my favorites and purchase early in pan & scan well before a LB version was available. Otherwise I still happy watching the LDs I have.



    Well.... the buying habits of enthusiasts and multiple dipping of same title with Special Edition, Theatrical Cut, Director's Cut, Extended Edition and etc are mostly for die hard movie nuts. Most of them would also participate on HiDef versions as well, so on that note, I don't think the studios would expect everyone to double dip into HiDef versions with these releases, but most 1st time buyers would buy the most current version available for their SD/HD player, with exception of few of the enthusiasts to double dip.



    I for one now have little over 40 HD-DVD titles and about 1/3 of them are double dips. Out of them, I only regret double dipping on "Tomb Raider-Laura Croft" which I bought with a hope of seeing significant improvement over the SD version which turned out to be a disappointment. However, others have been more than worth it. Here are few I can list that I'm planning to double dip in HD, such as; Back to the Future Series, Indiana Jones Seres, Star Wars Series, LOTR and Matrix Series.



    Despite the HD movies being available, very small fraction of titles are available in HD. I still do buy SD DVD's on $4.99 sales which are mostly okay titles that I'd watch once in awhile. I still do plan on making future purchases with SD-DVD's, especially for BD exclusives and those great $4.99 titles that you wouldn't pay full MSRP for. I just bought a second HD-DVD player, HD-XA2, just for the purpose of enjoying all my SD-DVD collection in HD like quality. At the current sales price at amazon, it is a best upconverting SD-DVD under $3000 range, but most wouldn't spend more than $99 on a DVD player so it may not be worth it for everyone.
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  • Reply 1269 of 4650
    glossgloss Posts: 506member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Kolchak View Post


    And yet the two are usually mutually exclusive, especially in Dreamworks' case. Look at Flags of Our Fathers -- awards but no profit. Anchorman -- profit but no respectable awards. I happen to like quite a few Dreamworks movies like Galaxy Quest, The Terminal, Cast Away, Catch Me If You Can, Deep Impact. But that doesn't blind me to the fact that many of them did poorly.



    So how about looking at the full list rather than a cherry-picked few? You want high profile flops? Try Sinbad. The Last Castle. The Island. Stepford Wives. Lucky Numbers. Bagger Vance. The Time Machine. Spielberg's own A.I. and Munich. Or the biggest flop they've had in years, Flushed Away. None of those movies swung to a profit even after DVD sales.



    Sunk without a trace? Try Envy. Curse of the Jade Scorpion. House of Sand and Fog. Surviving Christmas. Hollywood Ending. In Dreams. Strange Parallel. Tons more but I don't want to type them all.



    And for anyone who says Katzenberg should be judged by all of Dreamworks, he made his name at Disney as the exec with the Midas touch in cartoons. But his record post-Disney has been mixed at best and certainly not flattering with Flushed Away, with many financial headlines saying that flick alone flushed away all their profits.



    You act as if any other studio that doesn't deal exclusively in art films doesn't have the same sort of track record. Show me a studio with nothing but hits and I'll show you false data. By your logic, any film executive from any film production company shouldn't be taken seriously.
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  • Reply 1270 of 4650
    kolchakkolchak Posts: 1,398member
    They shouldn't. Hollywood is mostly about who you know, not what you can do. If these guys were that brilliant, we wouldn't have the same cookie-cutter movies year after year, usually not doing very well. And then they turn around and whine that they don't know why the box office is in a slump, collecting multimillion dollar salaries all the while. Ditto for record execs like (former exec) Geffen (the G in Dreamworks SKG). They give us the same old crap music then complain sales are down. So Geffen says everybody illegally copies music onto their mp3 players and therefore there must be royalties on mp3 players. Are we to trust our technological future to guys like him and Katzenberg, who said he doesn't understand peer-to-peer?
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  • Reply 1271 of 4650
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by wilco View Post


    A.I. - ok film ruined by spielberg (he finnished Kubricks film)



    All Kubrick had was a treatment, and illustrations -- which were turned over to SS after Kubrick's death.



    which STRANGELY means that SS finnished the work Kubrick started... thus finnishing the film
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  • Reply 1272 of 4650
    vineavinea Posts: 5,585member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Kolchak View Post


    They shouldn't. Hollywood is mostly about who you know, not what you can do. If these guys were that brilliant, we wouldn't have the same cookie-cutter movies year after year, usually not doing very well. And then they turn around and whine that they don't know why the box office is in a slump, collecting multimillion dollar salaries all the while. Ditto for record execs like (former exec) Geffen (the G in Dreamworks SKG). They give us the same old crap music then complain sales are down. So Geffen says everybody illegally copies music onto their mp3 players and therefore there must be royalties on mp3 players. Are we to trust our technological future to guys like him and Katzenberg, who said he doesn't understand peer-to-peer?



    Yes, Spielberg is a no-talent hack that can't do anything...



    Yah, and that Katzenberg guy...with some of the few non-pixar animated hits...like that $363M stinker Shark's Tale and $484M loser Shrek...is just an industry poser that "knew someone".



    And Dreamgirls was derivative crap...



    In any case, it seems that Jobs and Katzenberg are on the same page where they both think digital downloads are the future.



    Vinea



    PS Final comment on Dreamworks: 77 films, $12.08B worldwide box office, 117 Academy Award noms, 28 Oscars, 3 Best Picture Oscars. Not too shabby as a studio that only was around a decade as an independent.
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  • Reply 1273 of 4650
    wilcowilco Posts: 985member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Trendannoyer View Post


    which STRANGELY means that SS finnished the work Kubrick started... thus finnishing the film



    If you say so.



    Others might suggest that Kubrick would have had to actually began "filming" something -- or at least had progressed beyond an incomplete treatment -- before someone else could "finnish" the film.
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  • Reply 1274 of 4650
    kolchakkolchak Posts: 1,398member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by vinea View Post


    Yes, Spielberg is a no-talent hack that can't do anything...



    An awful lot of people have said he's lost his touch. How else do you explain garbage like War of the Worlds? Where's his golden touch on TV, with stuff like Taken, Seaquest DSV? Besides, I wasn't aware Spielberg had taken a stance on the HD format war.



    Quote:

    Yah, and that Katzenberg guy...with some of the few non-pixar animated hits...like that $363M stinker Shark's Tale and $484M loser Shrek...is just an industry poser that "knew someone".



    Excuse me, but wouldn't he also be the same guy behind the decisions to back Wallace and Gromit and Flushed Away, which both lost money for the studio? Flushed Away singlehandedly pushed Dreamworks well into the red for this past quarter and made them finally dissolve their contract with Aardman. And wasn't he the executive producer for Father of the Pride?



    Quote:

    In any case, it seems that Jobs and Katzenberg are on the same page where they both think digital downloads are the future.



    Yeah, right, digital HD downloads are the future. Right after we get 100mbps broadband. I'm not holding my breath. And where's all the stuff on iTunes that HD DVD backers always claim is essential? Where is the IME? Where are the extras? Where's the commentary track?
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  • Reply 1275 of 4650
    vineavinea Posts: 5,585member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Kolchak View Post


    Yeah, right, digital HD downloads are the future. Right after we get 100mbps broadband. I'm not holding my breath. And where's all the stuff on iTunes that HD DVD backers always claim is essential? Where is the IME? Where are the extras? Where's the commentary track?



    I think 15Mbps is enough and its only $50 a month from Verizon. FTTH has been long in coming but finally seeing real deployment. Heck you can get 30Mbps if you're willing to pay $180 a month.



    AT&T has IPTV in trials and cable has HD VOD. Eh...if HD-DVD and Blu-ray dwaddles long enough their lifetimes will be cut shorter than one would have anticipated. Neither Jobs nor Katzenberg says it'll happen tomorrow but the indicators are all there.



    Vinea
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  • Reply 1276 of 4650
    kolchakkolchak Posts: 1,398member
    I've got 10Mbps and it still takes almost 3 hours to download 4.5GB. 15GB at 15Mbps is probably six hours, and if it became widespread, would strain most of the networks. Especially cable networks where bandwidth is shared. You'd have to be a fool to pay $180/mo for 30Mbps. After about four months of that, you could have bought an HD standalone player. FiOS isn't as widespread as you think. They've been installing it around my city for close to two years and most neighborhoods still can't get it. So much for "real deployment." As for VOD, the available films are very limited. You're better off renting HD from Netflix.
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  • Reply 1277 of 4650
    sdw2001sdw2001 Posts: 18,070member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by OldCodger73 View Post


    I know some of the regular posters here in this thread have already bought an HDD format player, while others, myself included, prefer to stick with SD-DV until this whole mess sorts itself out. Has this whole HD format war plus the question as to whether HD formats will ever be more than a niche product changed your DVD buying pattern?



    I know in my case it has. Normally I buy a DVD if I'm sure I'll watch it more than once. This is based either on seeing the movie in a theatre, several reviews or word-of-mouth. If I rented, it was at a local Blockbuster, which has a pretty lame selection. However, after upgrading to a plasma and upconverting DVD in November, I reactivated my Netflix membership and since then haven't bought a single DVD. Of all the DVDs I've rented during that period, only one-- Babel-- is one I'd consider buying. Of the DVDs showing as upcoming release I'll definitely purchase The Queen and WKRP in Cincinnati, First Season-- as for the rest forget it. So from my viewpoint, this silly format war is costing studios as I'm not really buying DVDs in the quantity that I had before.



    IMO, one thing that has studios drooling with HD is the mistaken belief that people will upgrade their DVD collection with HDs. It won't happen here based on my experience of switching from LD to DVD, where I bought only 5 DVD of LDs I already had primarily as the LDs were among my favorites and purchase early in pan & scan well before a LB version was available. Otherwise I still happy watching the LDs I have.



    Agreed. I rarely buy DVDs except as gifts. I am starting to rent more. I have not joined Netflix yet, but I think I'm going to soon. I actually just rented three SD-DVDs from Blockbuster, and paid $14.xx for them, which is ridiculous. For that money every month, I can join the mid-level netflix. Blockbuster is lagging on the HD content (oh, and I hate them), for now it's likely going to be netflix.



    I will upgrade some things when they become available, but I will almost certainly wait until one format really takes over. It looks like Blu-Ray is going to win, but I'm going to wait it out and be sure. When that happens, I want to purchase the entire Star Wars and Star Trek collections in HD. I don't even own all of them on DVD. I have ST 1-6 on VHS, which at this point I find totally unwatchable. There are some other movies I'd buy...but I agree...I can't watch most movies more than once. It's a waste to buy it.
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  • Reply 1278 of 4650
    emig647emig647 Posts: 2,455member
    It kinda hit me today... how many people are waiting to upgrade to HD players until "this mess sorts itself out"? What if it never really sorts out and there is a large abundance of people that never upgrade because of it.
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  • Reply 1279 of 4650
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by emig647 View Post


    It kinda hit me today... how many people are waiting to upgrade to HD players until "this mess sorts itself out"? What if it never really sorts out and there is a large abundance of people that never upgrade because of it.



    Since SD-DVD on a good upconverting player is still "good-enough" for most people, I doubt that never upgrading to an HD format won't bother them at all.
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  • Reply 1280 of 4650
    sdw2001sdw2001 Posts: 18,070member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by emig647 View Post


    It kinda hit me today... how many people are waiting to upgrade to HD players until "this mess sorts itself out"? What if it never really sorts out and there is a large abundance of people that never upgrade because of it.



    I think by this time next year you'll see a clear winner. Blu-Ray is opening up a commanding lead. There's already a $499 player out there:



    http://www.blu-ray.com/players/



    Once the street price is under $300, you'll see a lot of folks upgrade. I myself bought a PS3, so I have a player...but at some point I'll likely buy a standalone player as well. The thing with HD right now is that most people just don't have HD discs in their mind, at least from what I can tell. Most video stores are not stocking them en masse yet.
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