Seems to me that they-- the HD DVD PR group--are the ones that have some "splanin to do," as according to the independent number of Nielsen Videoscan, Blu-ray has outsold HD DVD by 262,500.
Hmm...I don't know. Maybe like as I have pointed out, but the INDEPENDENT Nielsen Viedoscan doesn't count Walmart, Amazon, a variety of other brick and mortars and online retailers. For all we know, Videoscan's number might only make up 50-60% of the market. Who the hell knows. Amazon and Walmart are two HUGE retailers, so to not factor them in to any equations about sales is just plain idiotic. It is impossible to claim anyone winning anything at this point. When selling 800 disks puts you in a top 10 list...we are on the VERY early adaptor end of the spectrum here.
Well I'm glad Wal-Mart spoke up although they were not totally definitive in their denial. Fu Yuan added clarification that Wal Mart was considering the deal. This seems plausible because
When asked to comment specifically on a statement appearing on Fuh Yuan's site, which implies the retailer is at least interested in ordering the players, the spokesperson said she could not comment on or disclose Wal-Mart's internal business with suppliers and our orders. However, the supplier said that no deal was imminent.
I'm content to wait and see how this unfolds.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kupan787
Hmm...I don't know. Maybe like as I have pointed out, but the INDEPENDENT Nielsen Viedoscan doesn't count Walmart, Amazon, a variety of other brick and mortars and online retailers. For all we know, Videoscan's number might only make up 50-60% of the market
I was pretty dissapointed to find out that Videoscan numbers had some serious holes. There are plenty of chains that do not provide sales numbers. So we are talking a best guess overall based on what trends are seen at other stores.
Blu-ray has what 2 million players in North America now? What's that equate to 1 disc sold per every two players?
Do you make up numbers as you go? Where do you get that 2 million players from?
There are 1.3 million PS3s shipped in the Americas and probably not many Blu-ray stand alones. We don't know how many bought PS3 for playing BDs or for playing games (the latter is it's main purpose), but the number of players is not even close to 2 million.
Do you make up numbers as you go? Where do you get that 2 million players from?
There are 1.3 million PS3s shipped in the Americas and probably not many Blu-ray stand alones. We don't know how many bought PS3 for playing BDs or for playing games (the latter is it's main purpose), but the number of players is not even close to 2 million.
Why are you limiting yourself to the Americas. The PR from Blu-raydisc.com does not state the 1 million discs are Americas sales so they must be worldwide which means you must take the worldwide sales of Blu-ray players. That's closer to 2 million and may be over 2 million.
Thus 1 million movies divided by 2 million players equals a dreadful attachrate. I know it ...you know it. That's why you're trying to launch a weak attack on my numbers and not the actual message which is irrefutable. Blu-ray has 2 major advantages
1. Total playback devices (2 million plus worldwide)
2. 4 more studios
And with these major advantages they've only sold 2000 more discs since inception. That's a crappy attachrate. Balls in your court.
First off, not every owner of a PS3 is a blu-ray movie purchaser, who knows how many are (it's primary purpose is GAMING). But, every single HD-DVD player is for the sole purpose of watching HD-DVD's so stop with this attach rate crap. As well, I believe it has already been pointed out that your math in terms of disc sales comparisons is horribly wrong, so that makes your whole last point moot.
There are no 100% solid figures in this battle, but chances are the ratio of blu-ray disc buyers is going to be the same at the places that were not included in the Nielsen Videoscan. So, until some new data comes out showing a ratio different than 60/40 - 70/30, it is safe to say that is accurate.
Why are you limiting yourself to the Americas. The PR from Blu-raydisc.com does not state the 1 million discs are Americas sales so they must be worldwide which means you must take the worldwide sales of Blu-ray players. That's closer to 2 million and may be over 2 million.
Thus 1 million movies divided by 2 million players equals a dreadful attachrate. I know it ...you know it. That's why you're trying to launch a weak attack on my numbers and not the actual message which is irrefutable. Blu-ray has 2 major advantages
1. Total playback devices (2 million plus worldwide)
2. 4 more studios
And with these major advantages they've only sold 2000 more discs since inception. That's a crappy attachrate. Balls in your court.
Add 260,500 to 2,000 there Murch, rinse...repeat...
First off, not every owner of a PS3 is a blu-ray movie purchaser, who knows how many are (it's primary purpose is GAMING). But, every single HD-DVD player is for the sole purpose of watching HD-DVD's so stop with this attach rate crap. As well, I believe it has already been pointed out that your math in terms of disc sales comparisons is horribly wrong, so that makes your whole last point moot.
There are no 100% solid figures in this battle, but chances are the ratio of blu-ray disc buyers is going to be the same at the places that were not included in the Nielsen Videoscan. So, until some new data comes out showing a ratio different than 60/40 - 70/30, it is safe to say that is accurate.
Of course not every PS3 owner is going to buy Blu-ray movies but if we subtract the PS3 from player sales then you find that HD DVD is outselling Blu-ray hardware at a 4:1 ratio.
Sony marketed the PS3 as being vital to the Blu-ray platform and gained the support of Warner and Paramount based on the potential of millions of PS3 owners buying discs. We now have good data that suggest that many PS3 owners don't care about buying movies even if they have the hardware to easily play them back. The point is far from moot. If Im a studio I am a bit dissapointed by the fact that I cannot count on millions of PS3 to generate many movies sales despite contrary messages from Sony. LOL talk about moot points. You denigrate my post yet when the circumstantial evidence seemngly supports your personal viewpoint ...leaps of faith are somehow accurate.
I'm still waiting for an answer about why the attachrate for Blu-ray players isn't even 1 per machine. You guys do realize there aren't even a million HD DVD playback devices worldwide so the ratio there is likely 2 discs for every player. Despite the fact that Disney/Buena Vista, Fox/MGM, Columbia and Lionsgate movies are a no show.
I guess with a dearth of real arguments to explain the poor performance of Blu-ray many of you will resort to specious rebuttals and obsession with minutiae.
Quote:
Originally Posted by marzetta7
Add 260,500 to 2,000 there Murch, rinse...repeat...
Where's the 260.5k number coming from? I've yet to see a source that is accurate. Even Videoscan has some gaping holes in their coverage.
Hmm...I don't know. Maybe like as I have pointed out, but the INDEPENDENT Nielsen Viedoscan doesn't count Walmart, Amazon, a variety of other brick and mortars and online retailers. For all we know, Videoscan's number might only make up 50-60% of the market. Who the hell knows. Amazon and Walmart are two HUGE retailers, so to not factor them in to any equations about sales is just plain idiotic. It is impossible to claim anyone winning anything at this point. When selling 800 disks puts you in a top 10 list...we are on the VERY early adaptor end of the spectrum here.
Incorrect, yet again. According to this thread over at AVS, a person requested a pdf file listing all of Nielsen/Videoscan reporting retailers...and AMAZON IS INCLUDED. Despite your weak attempts and trying to discredit the Nielsen/Videoscan numbers, ask yourself this question. Why would numerous news outlets, retailers themselves, and marketing researchers all use Nielsen/Videoscan numbers if they weren't representative of the market? A: They do it because it is representative of the market
After looking at numerous threads on the internet, people are estimating that these numbers represent around 70% of the market. Is this percentage accurate? I'm not going to speculate. But what I will defend is the Nielsen/Videoscan source of representing a very well sized and definitive market sample, and the fact that yes, it does give a good overall picture of the market.
Say what you will, but what is plain idiotic, is trying to pass of SALES RANK data is hard, concrete, overall sales data.
Of course not every PS3 owner is going to buy Blu-ray movies but if we subtract the PS3 from player sales then you find that HD DVD is outselling Blu-ray hardware at a 4:1 ratio.
Sony marketed the PS3 as being vital to the Blu-ray platform and gained the support of Warner and Paramount based on the potential of millions of PS3 owners buying discs. We now have good data that suggest that many PS3 owners don't care about buying movies even if they have the hardware to easily play them back. The point is far from moot. If Im a studio I am a bit dissapointed by the fact that I cannot count on millions of PS3 to generate many movies sales despite contrary messages from Sony. LOL talk about moot points. You denigrate my post yet when the circumstantial evidence seemngly supports your personal viewpoint ...leaps of faith are somehow accurate.
I'm still waiting for an answer about why the attachrate for Blu-ray players isn't even 1 per machine. You guys do realize there aren't even a million HD DVD playback devices worldwide so the ratio there is likely 2 discs for every player. Despite the fact that Disney/Buena Vista, Fox/MGM, Columbia and Lionsgate movies are a no show.
I guess with a dearth of real arguments to explain the poor performance of Blu-ray many of you will resort to specious rebuttals and obsession with minutiae.
Where's the 260.5k number coming from? I've yet to see a source that is accurate. Even Videoscan has some gaping holes in their coverage.
Ahh, gave you a link from Home Media Magazine citing Nielsen/Videoscan numbers...the only gaping whole I really find is Wal-Mart...that's about it. But maybe we all ought to go back to looking at Amazon SALES RANK numbers for your idea of definitive sales...ahh, well, would you look at that even that is not supporting the FUD your spewing anymore. Better luck next time. Maybe schedule another buyathon...that's the ticket.
Please provide the complete methodology of Videoscan data.
We need to know:
1. Exactly what companies are polled.
2. When the data is sent to Videoscan
3. What the margin of error is
4. And any other relevant data.
The problem is that you all are admonishing other people for choosing a set of data while highlighting your own "blessed" dataset. That's a logical fallacy..appeal to authority. You're attempting to annoint Videoscan as the authority and cast all other data as incomplete or irrelevant.
Psych 101 stuff. What is notable is the lack of plausible explanation as to why there are many more BD capable players yet the sales numbers don't seem to reflect this. I'd rather have less Videoscan mumbo jumbo and more discussion on what the issue is and how does the BDA get more movies sold. In essence, I am imploring people to imbue this thread with their own orginal talking points.
Ahh, gave you a link from Home Media Magazine citing Nielsen/Videoscan numbers...the only gaping whole I really find is Wal-Mart...that's about it. But maybe we all ought to go back to looking at Amazon SALES RANK numbers for your idea of definitive sales...ahh, well, would you look at that even that is not supporting the FUD your spewing anymore. Better luck next time. Maybe schedule another buyathon...that's the ticket.
That is one hell of a gaping hole Marzetta7. Walmart sells more DVD than anyone. As they begin to support HD packaged media more the Videoscan numbers will skew if they don't account for the massive influence of Wally Mart.
The problem is there are so many statistics floating around and not enough cogent explanation of what said statistics mean nor any exposition about the market forces that may have had a causal effect.
HD DVD took the lead from Blu-ray in movie sales because Blu-ray had a lapse in releases. Blu-ray took the lead in Feb and March for the same reasons.
Of course not every PS3 owner is going to buy Blu-ray movies but if we subtract the PS3 from player sales then you find that HD DVD is outselling Blu-ray hardware at a 4:1 ratio.
Sony marketed the PS3 as being vital to the Blu-ray platform and gained the support of Warner and Paramount based on the potential of millions of PS3 owners buying discs. We now have good data that suggest that many PS3 owners don't care about buying movies even if they have the hardware to easily play them back. The point is far from moot. If Im a studio I am a bit dissapointed by the fact that I cannot count on millions of PS3 to generate many movies sales despite contrary messages from Sony. LOL talk about moot points. You denigrate my post yet when the circumstantial evidence seemngly supports your personal viewpoint ...leaps of faith are somehow accurate.
I'm still waiting for an answer about why the attachrate for Blu-ray players isn't even 1 per machine. You guys do realize there aren't even a million HD DVD playback devices worldwide so the ratio there is likely 2 discs for every player. Despite the fact that Disney/Buena Vista, Fox/MGM, Columbia and Lionsgate movies are a no show.
I guess with a dearth of real arguments to explain the poor performance of Blu-ray many of you will resort to specious rebuttals and obsession with minutiae.
Wow, your argument here is so superficial that it is rather amusing. I see, according to your arguments, we must wholly count the PS3 as movie player, which will give it a poor attach rate as if anyone really cares, or we must not count it at all, which would give HD DVD a supposed and claimed hardware advantage of 4 to 1. Hmm I see. Looks like someone is talking in absolutes. But did you fail to see is that if HD DVD did in fact have a 4 to 1 hardware advantage since your not counting the PS3, this means that Blu-ray has one hell of a attach rate! OMG! They are kicking HD DVD's a$$ in attachrate if we're to follow your logic. Hahahaha.
C'mon, tell me you have substantiated a better argument in than this. Why can't we only count...mmm say 100,000 PS3s...or 200,000 PS3s? Maybe more maybe less...as who really knows how many are being used for BD movies...is it really that important? Maybe to some, but I think overall sales of discs trump any form of "minutiae" such as attach rate. BTW, I really don't count Nielsen Videoscan numbers clearly showing Blu-ray dominating HD DVD in the high-def format war as circumstantial evidence...I consider this concrete evidence...and what has clearly become evident is the momentum in favor of Blu-ray. I expect it to continue until HD DVDs demise in the near future.
That is one hell of a gaping hole Marzetta7. Walmart sells more DVD than anyone. As they begin to support HD packaged media more the Videoscan numbers will skew if they don't account for the massive influence of Wally Mart.
The problem is there are so many statistics floating around and not enough cogent explanation of what said statistics mean nor any exposition about the market forces that may have had a causal effect.
HD DVD took the lead from Blu-ray in movie sales because Blu-ray had a lapse in releases. Blu-ray took the lead in Feb and March for the same reasons.
Heh-he, correction, HD DVD took the lead in SALES RANK, not overall MOVIE SALES, for about 2 to 3 days due to both a Blu-ray release lapse and more importantly, a dedicated and united HD DVD buyathon on April 15th. This shows no real shift in momentum given the actual source,--Amazon sales rank--the superficial inflation from HD DVD buyers, and the fact overall sales remain unchanged from this past Sunday's data. We'll even have that confirmed yet again I imagine from this Sunday's Nielsen/Videoscan data for the week ending in 4/22.
Please provide the complete methodology of Videoscan data.
We need to know:
1. Exactly what companies are polled.
2. When the data is sent to Videoscan
3. What the margin of error is
4. And any other relevant data.
The problem is that you all are admonishing other people for choosing a set of data while highlighting your own "blessed" dataset. That's a logical fallacy..appeal to authority. You're attempting to annoint Videoscan as the authority and cast all other data as incomplete or irrelevant.
Psych 101 stuff. What is notable is the lack of plausible explanation as to why there are many more BD capable players yet the sales numbers don't seem to reflect this. I'd rather have less Videoscan mumbo jumbo and more discussion on what the issue is and how does the BDA get more movies sold. In essence, I am imploring people to imbue this thread with their own orginal talking points.
What is logical fallacy is your attempt to annoint PR crap from the HD DVD Promotional group citing a 2,000 disc gap (and from a smaller and biased data sample) to trump an independent data source that the INDUSTRY uses for concrete sales data. Now that's a fallacy...actually it's downright FUDtastic. Economics 101 stuff, accounting 101 stuff, and dare I say, common sense 101 stuff.
A major flaw in your thinking, Murch, is that you assume everyone who bought a PS3 bought it for the Blu-Ray capability, which is catagorically untrue. HD-DVD players can only be used for one thing: HD-DVD movies. The PS3 has plenty of functionality in addition to its Blu-Ray capability, and so it follows that not every PS3 sold is going to be functioning as a movie player.
You're basing your agument on a logical fallacy. In order for your comments to make sense you have to convince us that your data is more relevant than most other data presented here. There's nothing wrong with that but taking strictly from a logical context your data is no more accurate or unFUD'like than anyone elses here.
Now you're telling me to ignore data coming from the HD DVD group and listen to an Independant 3rd party but that doesn't mean that the HD DVD group's data is incorrect which is where your logic falls short.
I'm not saying that Videoscan numbers are incorrect but rather saying that the reliance on them as some sort of affirmation of Blu-ray winning this battle handily is incongruent with the facts that 2 million players worldwide are generating less sales than their number would seem to dictate.
A major flaw in your thinking, Murch, is that you assume everyone who bought a PS3 bought it for the Blu-Ray capability, which is catagorically untrue. HD-DVD players can only be used for one thing: HD-DVD movies. The PS3 has plenty of functionality in addition to its Blu-Ray capability, and so it follows that not every PS3 sold is going to be functioning as a movie player.
Apples to oranges.
Oh I never believed that every PS3 player would become a movie playback device but even I thought that the impact of the PS3 was going to be formidable. To be honest it "has" been formidable but not at significant cost to the standalone player sales. Now with more empirical evidence available regarding how many PS3 owners regularly buy movies it's a bit easier to predict what future PS3 sales will do to movie sales.
You know I times I forget what we're debating about. I'm not here arguing about whether Blu-ray is going to win/lose. I'm not even here to argue about whether it delivers a better or worse picture.
The thing that remains clear for me is that both formats are looking like they will survive. Blu-ray easily one Q1 2007. They'll likely win Q2 but it won't be as big of a margin. Q3 and Q4 will likely be close as well. I'm weary of the Q1 numbers being puked out ad naseauem. Neither format has been really been all that impressive as compared to DVD. Much more work must be done.
The absolute numbers of PS3s vs standalong HD-DVD players on the market will be much larger in these quarters. If PS3 sales have stabalized at 130K/month in the US there will be another million units in the US alone.
Toshiba is at an average of 10K sales per month in 2007.
Yes, its Christmas 2007 that will show which format won 2007 and not now but I betting it will be BluRay just because of the PS3 effect.
The absolute numbers of PS3s vs standalong HD-DVD players on the market will be much larger in these quarters. If PS3 sales have stabalized at 130K/month in the US there will be another million units in the US alone.
Toshiba is at an average of 10K sales per month in 2007.
Yes, its Christmas 2007 that will show which format won 2007 and not now but I betting it will be BluRay just because of the PS3 effect.
Vinea
Vinea,
You bring up a good point in current Toshiba runrate. Despite having roughly a 10k runrate on players Toshiba is still adamant about their CES 2007 estimations of 1.8 million players sold in North America and now they have told Forbes that March 2008 should see 3 million HD DVD players.
Quite honestly these numbers are almost unfathomable to me simply because they represent such a vast departure from what we've seen thusfar. It's literally going to take HD DVD players in high quantity at pricing between $199 and $299 and a hot Christmast selling season to hit those numbers. This is why many are looking at any potential deals with Wal-Mart.
It is going to take 3 million players and consumers that enjoy buying movies to bring Disney over. As much as I'd love for the war to be over by Christmas I don't think it's likely. We'll see though...I love seeing the pricing come down so fast. That's good for everyone.
Comments
Seems to me that they-- the HD DVD PR group--are the ones that have some "splanin to do," as according to the independent number of Nielsen Videoscan, Blu-ray has outsold HD DVD by 262,500.
Hmm...I don't know. Maybe like as I have pointed out, but the INDEPENDENT Nielsen Viedoscan doesn't count Walmart, Amazon, a variety of other brick and mortars and online retailers. For all we know, Videoscan's number might only make up 50-60% of the market. Who the hell knows. Amazon and Walmart are two HUGE retailers, so to not factor them in to any equations about sales is just plain idiotic. It is impossible to claim anyone winning anything at this point. When selling 800 disks puts you in a top 10 list...we are on the VERY early adaptor end of the spectrum here.
When asked to comment specifically on a statement appearing on Fuh Yuan's site, which implies the retailer is at least interested in ordering the players, the spokesperson said she could not comment on or disclose Wal-Mart's internal business with suppliers and our orders. However, the supplier said that no deal was imminent.
I'm content to wait and see how this unfolds.
Hmm...I don't know. Maybe like as I have pointed out, but the INDEPENDENT Nielsen Viedoscan doesn't count Walmart, Amazon, a variety of other brick and mortars and online retailers. For all we know, Videoscan's number might only make up 50-60% of the market
I was pretty dissapointed to find out that Videoscan numbers had some serious holes. There are plenty of chains that do not provide sales numbers. So we are talking a best guess overall based on what trends are seen at other stores.
attach rate guesses,
I read that as "attach rate glasses" and when you consider who it was aimed at, is actually quite funny
Blu-ray has what 2 million players in North America now? What's that equate to 1 disc sold per every two players?
Do you make up numbers as you go? Where do you get that 2 million players from?
There are 1.3 million PS3s shipped in the Americas and probably not many Blu-ray stand alones. We don't know how many bought PS3 for playing BDs or for playing games (the latter is it's main purpose), but the number of players is not even close to 2 million.
Do you make up numbers as you go? Where do you get that 2 million players from?
There are 1.3 million PS3s shipped in the Americas and probably not many Blu-ray stand alones. We don't know how many bought PS3 for playing BDs or for playing games (the latter is it's main purpose), but the number of players is not even close to 2 million.
Why are you limiting yourself to the Americas. The PR from Blu-raydisc.com does not state the 1 million discs are Americas sales so they must be worldwide which means you must take the worldwide sales of Blu-ray players. That's closer to 2 million and may be over 2 million.
Thus 1 million movies divided by 2 million players equals a dreadful attachrate. I know it ...you know it. That's why you're trying to launch a weak attack on my numbers and not the actual message which is irrefutable. Blu-ray has 2 major advantages
1. Total playback devices (2 million plus worldwide)
2. 4 more studios
And with these major advantages they've only sold 2000 more discs since inception. That's a crappy attachrate. Balls in your court.
There are no 100% solid figures in this battle, but chances are the ratio of blu-ray disc buyers is going to be the same at the places that were not included in the Nielsen Videoscan. So, until some new data comes out showing a ratio different than 60/40 - 70/30, it is safe to say that is accurate.
Why are you limiting yourself to the Americas. The PR from Blu-raydisc.com does not state the 1 million discs are Americas sales so they must be worldwide which means you must take the worldwide sales of Blu-ray players. That's closer to 2 million and may be over 2 million.
Thus 1 million movies divided by 2 million players equals a dreadful attachrate. I know it ...you know it. That's why you're trying to launch a weak attack on my numbers and not the actual message which is irrefutable. Blu-ray has 2 major advantages
1. Total playback devices (2 million plus worldwide)
2. 4 more studios
And with these major advantages they've only sold 2000 more discs since inception. That's a crappy attachrate. Balls in your court.
Add 260,500 to 2,000 there Murch, rinse...repeat...
First off, not every owner of a PS3 is a blu-ray movie purchaser, who knows how many are (it's primary purpose is GAMING). But, every single HD-DVD player is for the sole purpose of watching HD-DVD's so stop with this attach rate crap. As well, I believe it has already been pointed out that your math in terms of disc sales comparisons is horribly wrong, so that makes your whole last point moot.
There are no 100% solid figures in this battle, but chances are the ratio of blu-ray disc buyers is going to be the same at the places that were not included in the Nielsen Videoscan. So, until some new data comes out showing a ratio different than 60/40 - 70/30, it is safe to say that is accurate.
Of course not every PS3 owner is going to buy Blu-ray movies but if we subtract the PS3 from player sales then you find that HD DVD is outselling Blu-ray hardware at a 4:1 ratio.
http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/02/24...ar-in-england/
http://gear.ign.com/articles/783/783545p1.html
Sony marketed the PS3 as being vital to the Blu-ray platform and gained the support of Warner and Paramount based on the potential of millions of PS3 owners buying discs. We now have good data that suggest that many PS3 owners don't care about buying movies even if they have the hardware to easily play them back. The point is far from moot. If Im a studio I am a bit dissapointed by the fact that I cannot count on millions of PS3 to generate many movies sales despite contrary messages from Sony. LOL talk about moot points. You denigrate my post yet when the circumstantial evidence seemngly supports your personal viewpoint ...leaps of faith are somehow accurate.
I'm still waiting for an answer about why the attachrate for Blu-ray players isn't even 1 per machine. You guys do realize there aren't even a million HD DVD playback devices worldwide so the ratio there is likely 2 discs for every player. Despite the fact that Disney/Buena Vista, Fox/MGM, Columbia and Lionsgate movies are a no show.
I guess with a dearth of real arguments to explain the poor performance of Blu-ray many of you will resort to specious rebuttals and obsession with minutiae.
Add 260,500 to 2,000 there Murch, rinse...repeat...
Where's the 260.5k number coming from? I've yet to see a source that is accurate. Even Videoscan has some gaping holes in their coverage.
Hmm...I don't know. Maybe like as I have pointed out, but the INDEPENDENT Nielsen Viedoscan doesn't count Walmart, Amazon, a variety of other brick and mortars and online retailers. For all we know, Videoscan's number might only make up 50-60% of the market. Who the hell knows. Amazon and Walmart are two HUGE retailers, so to not factor them in to any equations about sales is just plain idiotic. It is impossible to claim anyone winning anything at this point. When selling 800 disks puts you in a top 10 list...we are on the VERY early adaptor end of the spectrum here.
Incorrect, yet again. According to this thread over at AVS, a person requested a pdf file listing all of Nielsen/Videoscan reporting retailers...and AMAZON IS INCLUDED. Despite your weak attempts and trying to discredit the Nielsen/Videoscan numbers, ask yourself this question. Why would numerous news outlets, retailers themselves, and marketing researchers all use Nielsen/Videoscan numbers if they weren't representative of the market? A: They do it because it is representative of the market
After looking at numerous threads on the internet, people are estimating that these numbers represent around 70% of the market. Is this percentage accurate? I'm not going to speculate. But what I will defend is the Nielsen/Videoscan source of representing a very well sized and definitive market sample, and the fact that yes, it does give a good overall picture of the market.
Say what you will, but what is plain idiotic, is trying to pass of SALES RANK data is hard, concrete, overall sales data.
Of course not every PS3 owner is going to buy Blu-ray movies but if we subtract the PS3 from player sales then you find that HD DVD is outselling Blu-ray hardware at a 4:1 ratio.
http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/02/24...ar-in-england/
http://gear.ign.com/articles/783/783545p1.html
Sony marketed the PS3 as being vital to the Blu-ray platform and gained the support of Warner and Paramount based on the potential of millions of PS3 owners buying discs. We now have good data that suggest that many PS3 owners don't care about buying movies even if they have the hardware to easily play them back. The point is far from moot. If Im a studio I am a bit dissapointed by the fact that I cannot count on millions of PS3 to generate many movies sales despite contrary messages from Sony. LOL talk about moot points. You denigrate my post yet when the circumstantial evidence seemngly supports your personal viewpoint ...leaps of faith are somehow accurate.
I'm still waiting for an answer about why the attachrate for Blu-ray players isn't even 1 per machine. You guys do realize there aren't even a million HD DVD playback devices worldwide so the ratio there is likely 2 discs for every player. Despite the fact that Disney/Buena Vista, Fox/MGM, Columbia and Lionsgate movies are a no show.
I guess with a dearth of real arguments to explain the poor performance of Blu-ray many of you will resort to specious rebuttals and obsession with minutiae.
Where's the 260.5k number coming from? I've yet to see a source that is accurate. Even Videoscan has some gaping holes in their coverage.
Ahh, gave you a link from Home Media Magazine citing Nielsen/Videoscan numbers...the only gaping whole I really find is Wal-Mart...that's about it. But maybe we all ought to go back to looking at Amazon SALES RANK numbers for your idea of definitive sales...ahh, well, would you look at that even that is not supporting the FUD your spewing anymore. Better luck next time. Maybe schedule another buyathon...that's the ticket.
We need to know:
1. Exactly what companies are polled.
2. When the data is sent to Videoscan
3. What the margin of error is
4. And any other relevant data.
The problem is that you all are admonishing other people for choosing a set of data while highlighting your own "blessed" dataset. That's a logical fallacy..appeal to authority. You're attempting to annoint Videoscan as the authority and cast all other data as incomplete or irrelevant.
Psych 101 stuff. What is notable is the lack of plausible explanation as to why there are many more BD capable players yet the sales numbers don't seem to reflect this. I'd rather have less Videoscan mumbo jumbo and more discussion on what the issue is and how does the BDA get more movies sold. In essence, I am imploring people to imbue this thread with their own orginal talking points.
Ahh, gave you a link from Home Media Magazine citing Nielsen/Videoscan numbers...the only gaping whole I really find is Wal-Mart...that's about it. But maybe we all ought to go back to looking at Amazon SALES RANK numbers for your idea of definitive sales...ahh, well, would you look at that even that is not supporting the FUD your spewing anymore. Better luck next time. Maybe schedule another buyathon...that's the ticket.
That is one hell of a gaping hole Marzetta7. Walmart sells more DVD than anyone. As they begin to support HD packaged media more the Videoscan numbers will skew if they don't account for the massive influence of Wally Mart.
The problem is there are so many statistics floating around and not enough cogent explanation of what said statistics mean nor any exposition about the market forces that may have had a causal effect.
HD DVD took the lead from Blu-ray in movie sales because Blu-ray had a lapse in releases. Blu-ray took the lead in Feb and March for the same reasons.
Of course not every PS3 owner is going to buy Blu-ray movies but if we subtract the PS3 from player sales then you find that HD DVD is outselling Blu-ray hardware at a 4:1 ratio.
http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/02/24...ar-in-england/
http://gear.ign.com/articles/783/783545p1.html
Sony marketed the PS3 as being vital to the Blu-ray platform and gained the support of Warner and Paramount based on the potential of millions of PS3 owners buying discs. We now have good data that suggest that many PS3 owners don't care about buying movies even if they have the hardware to easily play them back. The point is far from moot. If Im a studio I am a bit dissapointed by the fact that I cannot count on millions of PS3 to generate many movies sales despite contrary messages from Sony. LOL talk about moot points. You denigrate my post yet when the circumstantial evidence seemngly supports your personal viewpoint ...leaps of faith are somehow accurate.
I'm still waiting for an answer about why the attachrate for Blu-ray players isn't even 1 per machine. You guys do realize there aren't even a million HD DVD playback devices worldwide so the ratio there is likely 2 discs for every player. Despite the fact that Disney/Buena Vista, Fox/MGM, Columbia and Lionsgate movies are a no show.
I guess with a dearth of real arguments to explain the poor performance of Blu-ray many of you will resort to specious rebuttals and obsession with minutiae.
Wow, your argument here is so superficial that it is rather amusing. I see, according to your arguments, we must wholly count the PS3 as movie player, which will give it a poor attach rate as if anyone really cares, or we must not count it at all, which would give HD DVD a supposed and claimed hardware advantage of 4 to 1. Hmm I see. Looks like someone is talking in absolutes. But did you fail to see is that if HD DVD did in fact have a 4 to 1 hardware advantage since your not counting the PS3, this means that Blu-ray has one hell of a attach rate! OMG! They are kicking HD DVD's a$$ in attachrate if we're to follow your logic. Hahahaha.
C'mon, tell me you have substantiated a better argument in than this. Why can't we only count...mmm say 100,000 PS3s...or 200,000 PS3s? Maybe more maybe less...as who really knows how many are being used for BD movies...is it really that important? Maybe to some, but I think overall sales of discs trump any form of "minutiae" such as attach rate. BTW, I really don't count Nielsen Videoscan numbers clearly showing Blu-ray dominating HD DVD in the high-def format war as circumstantial evidence...I consider this concrete evidence...and what has clearly become evident is the momentum in favor of Blu-ray. I expect it to continue until HD DVDs demise in the near future.
That is one hell of a gaping hole Marzetta7. Walmart sells more DVD than anyone. As they begin to support HD packaged media more the Videoscan numbers will skew if they don't account for the massive influence of Wally Mart.
The problem is there are so many statistics floating around and not enough cogent explanation of what said statistics mean nor any exposition about the market forces that may have had a causal effect.
HD DVD took the lead from Blu-ray in movie sales because Blu-ray had a lapse in releases. Blu-ray took the lead in Feb and March for the same reasons.
Heh-he, correction, HD DVD took the lead in SALES RANK, not overall MOVIE SALES, for about 2 to 3 days due to both a Blu-ray release lapse and more importantly, a dedicated and united HD DVD buyathon on April 15th. This shows no real shift in momentum given the actual source,--Amazon sales rank--the superficial inflation from HD DVD buyers, and the fact overall sales remain unchanged from this past Sunday's data. We'll even have that confirmed yet again I imagine from this Sunday's Nielsen/Videoscan data for the week ending in 4/22.
Please provide the complete methodology of Videoscan data.
We need to know:
1. Exactly what companies are polled.
2. When the data is sent to Videoscan
3. What the margin of error is
4. And any other relevant data.
The problem is that you all are admonishing other people for choosing a set of data while highlighting your own "blessed" dataset. That's a logical fallacy..appeal to authority. You're attempting to annoint Videoscan as the authority and cast all other data as incomplete or irrelevant.
Psych 101 stuff. What is notable is the lack of plausible explanation as to why there are many more BD capable players yet the sales numbers don't seem to reflect this. I'd rather have less Videoscan mumbo jumbo and more discussion on what the issue is and how does the BDA get more movies sold. In essence, I am imploring people to imbue this thread with their own orginal talking points.
What is logical fallacy is your attempt to annoint PR crap from the HD DVD Promotional group citing a 2,000 disc gap (and from a smaller and biased data sample) to trump an independent data source that the INDUSTRY uses for concrete sales data. Now that's a fallacy...actually it's downright FUDtastic. Economics 101 stuff, accounting 101 stuff, and dare I say, common sense 101 stuff.
Apples to oranges.
You're basing your agument on a logical fallacy. In order for your comments to make sense you have to convince us that your data is more relevant than most other data presented here. There's nothing wrong with that but taking strictly from a logical context your data is no more accurate or unFUD'like than anyone elses here.
Now you're telling me to ignore data coming from the HD DVD group and listen to an Independant 3rd party but that doesn't mean that the HD DVD group's data is incorrect which is where your logic falls short.
I'm not saying that Videoscan numbers are incorrect but rather saying that the reliance on them as some sort of affirmation of Blu-ray winning this battle handily is incongruent with the facts that 2 million players worldwide are generating less sales than their number would seem to dictate.
A major flaw in your thinking, Murch, is that you assume everyone who bought a PS3 bought it for the Blu-Ray capability, which is catagorically untrue. HD-DVD players can only be used for one thing: HD-DVD movies. The PS3 has plenty of functionality in addition to its Blu-Ray capability, and so it follows that not every PS3 sold is going to be functioning as a movie player.
Apples to oranges.
Oh I never believed that every PS3 player would become a movie playback device but even I thought that the impact of the PS3 was going to be formidable. To be honest it "has" been formidable but not at significant cost to the standalone player sales. Now with more empirical evidence available regarding how many PS3 owners regularly buy movies it's a bit easier to predict what future PS3 sales will do to movie sales.
You know I times I forget what we're debating about. I'm not here arguing about whether Blu-ray is going to win/lose. I'm not even here to argue about whether it delivers a better or worse picture.
The thing that remains clear for me is that both formats are looking like they will survive. Blu-ray easily one Q1 2007. They'll likely win Q2 but it won't be as big of a margin. Q3 and Q4 will likely be close as well. I'm weary of the Q1 numbers being puked out ad naseauem. Neither format has been really been all that impressive as compared to DVD. Much more work must be done.
Q3 and Q4 will likely be close as well.
The absolute numbers of PS3s vs standalong HD-DVD players on the market will be much larger in these quarters. If PS3 sales have stabalized at 130K/month in the US there will be another million units in the US alone.
Toshiba is at an average of 10K sales per month in 2007.
Yes, its Christmas 2007 that will show which format won 2007 and not now but I betting it will be BluRay just because of the PS3 effect.
Vinea
The absolute numbers of PS3s vs standalong HD-DVD players on the market will be much larger in these quarters. If PS3 sales have stabalized at 130K/month in the US there will be another million units in the US alone.
Toshiba is at an average of 10K sales per month in 2007.
Yes, its Christmas 2007 that will show which format won 2007 and not now but I betting it will be BluRay just because of the PS3 effect.
Vinea
Vinea,
You bring up a good point in current Toshiba runrate. Despite having roughly a 10k runrate on players Toshiba is still adamant about their CES 2007 estimations of 1.8 million players sold in North America and now they have told Forbes that March 2008 should see 3 million HD DVD players.
Quite honestly these numbers are almost unfathomable to me simply because they represent such a vast departure from what we've seen thusfar. It's literally going to take HD DVD players in high quantity at pricing between $199 and $299 and a hot Christmast selling season to hit those numbers. This is why many are looking at any potential deals with Wal-Mart.
It is going to take 3 million players and consumers that enjoy buying movies to bring Disney over. As much as I'd love for the war to be over by Christmas I don't think it's likely. We'll see though...I love seeing the pricing come down so fast. That's good for everyone.