Blu-ray vs. HD DVD (2008)

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  • Reply 801 of 2639
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post


    Digital will eventually take over. Give it 5 years.



    Its not so much just online distribution as much as the fast availability of cheap rental packages (Netflix and BlockBuster) combined with ever expanding VoD systems (TV Providers) and online havens (Apple/HBO/Xbox Live). DVD was the only game in town for good quality video and connivence. Now we have many sources where I don't have to buy the movie on a disk to watch it.



    I know I am out on a limb here (and have been for a few pages now), but the optical disk market is over with the DVD. HDM wont ever get as big as DVD was at its peak. VoD (personal or otherwise) is here, and coming strong. Whether its streaming movies on-demand via the internet (Apple, HBO, Netflix, etc), from my TV provider (Comcast, TimeWarner, DirecTV, AT&T), or through my personal media server filled with online downloads (AppleTV, VuDu, MediaCenter PC), there just isn't a reason for me to purchase a plastic disk any more.
  • Reply 802 of 2639
    jimmacjimmac Posts: 11,898member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Frank777 View Post


    Okay, I'll jump back into the fire.



    As I've said before, the only way I can see for Toshiba to get back into the game is to have Microsoft and/or Nintendo publicly endorse the format for their next-gen consoles. That's the only way to end concerns about the discs becoming obsolete. Failing that, I believe HD-DVD is dead.



    However, the Blu-Rayers have spent so much time declaring victory and spewing FUD about Microsoft that they have yet to realize that Apple has declared war and is fighting them on another front.



    If 30,000 HD players were sold before Christmas and numbers are down to 25,000 or so for the next few months, the AppleTV/iTunes combo is going to beat those numbers handily.



    As for the "people want to collect their movies with discs and real artwork" nonsense, that's exactly what was said before Napster appeared and altered the course of the music industry forever.



    Ok I've been posting about this on Cnet and elsewhere and there's a simple problem with the download rental idea replacing physical media. When you download a movie you can't legally burn it or make it portable like you can with a physical disc. So you download this great movie and you'd like to take it over to your friend's house to play on his 63" plasma that he just bought but oops! He has to come over and watch it on your computer or your Apple TV. And please your not going to unhook things and take it to your friend's house everytime you want to do this. People are already used to a model where their videos are portable. To share them, lend them, whatever. Before with tapes and now with DVDs.



    Also if you want to watch it again you have to pay for it again.



    It's a limitation that I think will keep the downloading idea from replacing physical media. Also movie companies aren't likely to drop their paranoia and let you burn copies ( especially HD content ) so there you go. It's because of this that movies are a little different than music.



    So in the end it's a idea that will exist but won't replace physical media.
  • Reply 803 of 2639
    frank777frank777 Posts: 5,839member
    Non-portability is an issue that will be surely be tackled in the future.

    Apple has this handy portable device that would be perfect for shuttling movies around...



    For now, Apple TV will appeal only to those who aren't looking for portability, but when downloads become the Next Big Thing, all those people who dropped thousands on Plasmas will pony up for a $229. box for sure.



    And those are the people who host all the movie-showings anyway.
  • Reply 804 of 2639
    amorphamorph Posts: 7,112member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jimmac View Post


    Ok I've been posting about this on Cnet and elsewhere and there's a simple problem with the download rental idea replacing physical media. When you download a movie you can't legally burn it or make it portable like you can with a physical disc. So you download this great movie and you'd like to take it over to your friend's house to play on his 63" plasma that he just bought but oops! He has to come over and watch it on your computer or your Apple TV.



    [...]



    Also if you want to watch it again you have to pay for it again.



    Worse, the industry considers that last point to be a feature.



    That's the major roadblock to purely digital movies.
  • Reply 805 of 2639
    banchobancho Posts: 1,517member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Amorph View Post


    Worse, the industry considers that last point to be a feature.



    That's the major roadblock to purely digital movies.



    And a fantastic feature it is....if you hold the rights to the material.
  • Reply 806 of 2639
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Frank777 View Post


    I just bought Superman Returns from Costco myself. I missed it when it released in theatres, and the $8.99 I paid for the DVD is much cheaper than actually going to watch it on the big screen.



    But that's exactly my point. It's an impulse buy for me. While everyone you know is 'buying" DVDs, most of the people aren't "collecting" them. They see a cheap entertainment buy-in and then they pull the trigger and invite a couple friends over to watch.



    That's exactly the kind of impulse buyer Jobs is going after with the Apple TV.



    If it's important to you to have all the Christopher Reeve Superman films (I should say 'both' since none exist after Superman II ) plus the Director's Cut of the first film and the new reboot flick with Brandon Routh, then yes - you'll buy Blu-Ray. But that's not most people.



    If it's $8.99 and you keep the disc forever, they'll buy. But the whole reason studios went to HDM is to push up prices and make people buy the same media all over again.



    Between relatives we have over 1,000 DVDs. That's 4 relatives.
  • Reply 807 of 2639
    Heads Up:



    In the Northwest you have Verizon FIOS limited to specific West Coast cities like Seattle/Tacoma, Everett and Portland. Nothing east of the Cascades.



    Qwest isn't rolling ADSL2+ east of the Cascades for more than 18 months. They are first focused on Seattle, Portland, Denver, Minneapolis and a few other spots.



    There is no VoD model for millions right there.



    Option 2: Comcast.



    Comcast is getting it's ass kicked by Qwest east of the Cascades and by DISH/DirecTV.



    DirecTV is in contractual agreement with Qwest and Qwest is leaving the VoD up to DirecTV.



    DirecTV has no interest in AppleTV. Neither does Comcast nor DISH Network.



    Verizon FIOS has TV services tied to FIOS.



    This leaves Qwest.



    You aren't going to see ADSL2+ roll out in a large scale for nearly 2 years.



    This kills Digital distribution outside of the high density urban metropolitan regions.



    DVD, BluRay/HD-DVD aren't going away.



    5 - 10 years before we switch over.



    We were discussing HDTV in Senate hearings back in 1999 making the deadline be the start of 2004.



    This start has been pushed back to 2009.



    Don't expect HD VoD to reach any mature levels until 2014.
  • Reply 808 of 2639
    jimmacjimmac Posts: 11,898member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Frank777 View Post


    Non-portability is an issue that will be surely be tackled in the future.

    Apple has this handy portable device that would be perfect for shuttling movies around...



    For now, Apple TV will appeal only to those who aren't looking for portability, but when downloads become the Next Big Thing, all those people who dropped thousands on Plasmas will pony up for a $229. box for sure.



    And those are the people who host all the movie-showings anyway.



    Tell that to the movie industry. They aren't likely to budge anytime soon ( think in terms of decades ) and would probably like the pay and pay again control where you watch idea.



    I believe the download idea will be in our future in one form or another however it will not be a mainstream replacement for the foreseeable future.
  • Reply 809 of 2639
    bitemymacbitemymac Posts: 1,147member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jimmac View Post


    Tell that to the movie industry. They aren't likely to budge anytime soon ( think in terms of decades ) and would probably like the pay and pay again control where you watch idea.



    I believe the download idea will be in our future in one form or another however it will not be a mainstream replacement for the foeseeable future.



    Hm.. Well, the obvious is that all major studios are backing Apple with this download rental service. I was quite amazed that computer company like apple can get even Sony to join thier side, but all the bribery in the world has split the HDM optical fomat support in half.



    What I'm afraid of is that, soon, the download HDM rental/purchase catalog will get bigger than the current HDM titles available on both BD & HD-DVD discs. This will make most people think twice about waiting to view their favorite titles in HD on a disc.



    However, there are many niche supporters like me who would still buy SDM/HDM on old fashioned optical discs. But the mass consumers seem to be sensitive to convinience and lower prices, or the balance of both over ultimate quality.
  • Reply 810 of 2639
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bitemymac View Post


    Hm.. Well, the obvious is that all major studios are backing Apple with this download rental service. I was quite amazed that computer company like apple can get even Sony to join thier side, but all the bribery in the world has split the HDM optical fomat support in half.



    What I'm afraid of is that, soon, the download HDM rental/purchase catalog will get bigger than the current HDM titles available on both BD & HD-DVD discs. This will make most people think twice about waiting to view their favorite titles in HD on a disc.



    However, there are many niche supporters like me who would still buy SDM/HDM on old fashioned optical discs. But the mass consumers seem to be sensitive to convinience and lower prices, or the balance of both over ultimate quality.



    Don't know if you saw the Stevenote, he said the rentals would be avalible 30 days after the DVD went on sale, I would assume it would be similar when it comes to BD, it getting released first THEN 30 days later comes the iTunes 720 download. So must have buyers will still be able to grab solid media FIRST. not sure if B&M rentals will get the 30day jump on iTunes though.



    But, it would seem your Fear Uncertainty and Doubt are not as well grounded in reality as you project.



    I'm STILL waiting on an answer to this BTW



    In SIMPLE terms how would BD "WIN" the Hi-def format "war" by your reckoning?



    All movie Studios go Blu?



    Toshiba starts selling BD players? or even Dual format.



    or something else more convoluted that you will likely come up with?
  • Reply 811 of 2639
    guarthoguartho Posts: 1,208member
    I can't speak for bite of course, but I think Blu-ray has won the Hi-def format war. But the fellowship is still in the Rivendell as it were. Blu-ray now has to take on DVD and win or else be relegated to being the new Laserdisc. I don't think that's really a huge risk for Blu-ray if for no other reason than I never saw LDs at Wal•Mart, but it's still a possibility.
  • Reply 812 of 2639
    bitemymacbitemymac Posts: 1,147member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Walter Slocombe View Post


    Don't know if you saw the Stevenote, he said the rentals would be avalible 30 days after the DVD went on sale, I would assume it would be similar when it comes to BD, it getting released first THEN 30 days later comes the iTunes 720 download. So must have buyers will still be able to grab solid media FIRST. not sure if B&M rentals will get the 30day jump on iTunes though.



    But, it would seem your Fear Uncertainty and Doubt are not as well grounded in reality as you project.



    I'm STILL waiting on an answer to this BTW



    In SIMPLE terms how would BD "WIN" the Hi-def format "war" by your reckoning?



    All movie Studios go Blu?



    Toshiba starts selling BD players? or even Dual format.



    or something else more convoluted that you will likely come up with?




    haha... you're still caught up in your PS3 world of Blu-Ray.



    Do you only watch new releases on your PS3? I'd much prefer catalog titles over about 90% of new releases. Perhaps, I should get a PS3 to be brain washed to think I can only watch new releases on my PS3.



    Oh, BTW, the HDM optical format war still continues... whether you want to believe it or not. Do you see retails stores like BB and CC taking stuff off the shelf or stocking more of those cheap HD-DVD players? I guess things are different in the UK.
  • Reply 813 of 2639
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bitemymac View Post




    ...



    Oh, BTW, the HDM optical format war still continues... whether you want to believe it or not. Do you see retails stores like BB and CC taking stuff off the shelf or stocking more of those cheap HD-DVD players? I guess things are different in the UK.



    What's that old saying, the world will end in a whimper rather than a bang? That appears to be what's happening here. You're right, the war still continues and will pretty much do so until Universal and to a lesser extent Paramount start releasing BD media, but right now the perception is definitely that BD has won and that's affecting HDM sales and also the way salespeople are pitching the hardware. Plus it seems that BD has started an aggressive ad campaign on TV, or at least on the very few channels I watch.
  • Reply 814 of 2639
    bitemymacbitemymac Posts: 1,147member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by OldCodger73 View Post


    What's that old saying, the world will end in a whimper rather than a bang? That appears to be what's happening here. You're right, the war still continues and will pretty much do so until Universal and to a lesser extent Paramount start releasing BD media, but right now the perception is definitely that BD has won and that's affecting HDM sales and also the way salespeople are pitching the hardware. Plus it seems that BD has started an aggressive ad campaign on TV, or at least on the very few channels I watch.



    Haha...



    More I think about it, this HDM thing reminds me of the HiDef audio collections I still enjoy and still do buy the discs for. I'm still disappointed that SACD/DVD-A failed to come out of niche status. Not because I can't have SACD vs. DVD-A prefered optical disc choice, but just the lack of bigger HD audio library to chose for me.



    I kinda feel the same way about the HDM optical format war. It would be great to have the prefered choice of HDM disc format to win, but it's more important for me to see the HDM(on a disc or online download) market to win or co-exist in the mass consumer market. I still think HD-DVD has the right idea to influence the mass consumers to bring HDM out of niche status, where Blu-Ray still needs to make lots of changes to be in such position, perhaps couple more years may lower the prices enough and have fully featured players at consumer price range. Now, with the evolving download services, the mass consumer market will be further divided for the HT business. With current development of things in the HDM market, nothing will really change as long as the HDM optical disc market is still a super niche, it's insignificant whether you belive it or not.



    But with all this going on..... All I really want is being able to have big enough HDM library for my private HT. In regardless of the HDM delivery format. Of course, having the optical disc copy for a back up is a bonus.
  • Reply 815 of 2639
    onlookeronlooker Posts: 5,252member
    Really no good movies last week, but here are the numbers.







  • Reply 816 of 2639
    marzetta7marzetta7 Posts: 1,323member
    Spot on onlooker.



    Just to add, here is the official link to the official data you provided...



    Nielsen/VideoScan Numbers ending January 20th



    http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ques...2708/index.php



    WE: BD-83% HDD-17% YTD: BD-76% HDD-24% SI: BD-64% HDD-36%





    Also, some commentary...



    Another Huge Win for Blu-ray



    http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=893



    Quote:

    The latest Home Media Magazine has been released with the latest Nielson VideoScan data, and for the week ending January 20th, Blu-ray disc sales accounted for 83% of the high definition market. During this time, there were no Buy-One-Get-One-Free sales, showing the complete dominance that Blu-ray holds in the high definition market even without purchasing incentives.



    While some analysts concluded that Blu-ray's hold on the high definition market was only a temporary spike due to the Warner announcement, it appears that the trend will continue as more and more consumers discover the benefits of Blu-ray.



  • Reply 817 of 2639
    e1618978e1618978 Posts: 6,075member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bitemymac View Post


    haha... you're still caught up in your PS3 world of Blu-Ray.



    Do you only watch new releases on your PS3? I'd much prefer catalog titles over about 90% of new releases. Perhaps, I should get a PS3 to be brain washed to think I can only watch new releases on my PS3.



    Oh, BTW, the HDM optical format war still continues... whether you want to believe it or not. Do you see retails stores like BB and CC taking stuff off the shelf or stocking more of those cheap HD-DVD players? I guess things are different in the UK.



    Way to fail your response - you didn't answer his question at all...
  • Reply 818 of 2639
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bitemymac View Post


    haha... you're still caught up in your PS3 world of Blu-Ray.



    Do you only watch new releases on your PS3? I'd much prefer catalog titles over about 90% of new releases. Perhaps, I should get a PS3 to be brain washed to think I can only watch new releases on my PS3.



    Oh, BTW, the HDM optical format war still continues... whether you want to believe it or not. Do you see retails stores like BB and CC taking stuff off the shelf or stocking more of those cheap HD-DVD players? I guess things are different in the UK.



    I guess things are different here, for example, when asked a straight question we try to give a straight answer. Answering simple questions seems beyond you though.



    --



    The thing is, I sometimes wonder if English is your first language, is it? (thats gotta be easy to answer)



    But then I also wonder, because you and I exchanged views a while back about favorite films {Amadeus was one} and I have to say AGAIN that very few to none of my favorite films would be recent releases, yet you wet yourself over Transformers!! you seem to have developed Murchs tendency for 180 U-Turns.
  • Reply 819 of 2639
    bitemymacbitemymac Posts: 1,147member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by e1618978 View Post


    Way to fail your response - you didn't answer his question at all...



    I wasn't aware that I'm obligated to answer someone else's hypothetical questions. I thought it was just childish rant as usual.
  • Reply 820 of 2639
    bitemymacbitemymac Posts: 1,147member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Walter Slocombe View Post


    I guess things are different here, for example, when asked a straight question we try to give a straight answer. Answering simple questions seems beyond you though..



    It must be different indeed. Over here, most people are little more polite when asking questions. Especially, when imploring for an answer.



    I'm sure you are real joy to have around in real life.
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