Citigroup: Checks point to 3G iPhone within four months

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2014
Following overseas meetings with members of the Taiwanese PC and consumer electronics supply chain, analysts for investment bank Citigroup said they have high convictions that Apple intends to roll out a 3G iPhone during the second quarter of the year.



"Several sources confirmed the introduction of a new 3G iPhone during [the second calendar quarter]," analyst Rich Garder wrote in an industry news flash bulletin distributed to clients on Tuesday. "While iPhone and iPod units may disappoint again during [the first calendar quarter], we remain comfortable with our above-consensus EPS estimate thanks to solid PC momentum and sharp declines in DRAM and NAND pricing."



The Citigroup analyst also noted that macroeconomic concerns appear to have had no impact on industry-wide notebook build orders, which remain consistent with normal seasonal patterns.



He added that, "Several vendors, including HP and Acer, appear poised to introduce new low-priced notebook models in [the second calendar quarter] with retail prices as low as $300-$400."



Separately on Tuesday, Caris & Co. analyst Shebly Seyrafi issued a note to clients maintaining his Above Average rating on Apple but cutting his price target on shares of the company from $165 to $155, reflecting lower iPhone and iPod orders, as well as perceived weakness in consumer spending.



He also issued reductions to both his fiscal 2008 and fiscal 2009 iPhone and iPod unit estimates. iPhone expectations were cut from 11.7 million and 22.3 million to 8.9 million and 17.7 million, respectively, while iPod units were trimmed from 54.6 million and 61.2 million to 52.1 million and 57.3 million.



For calendar year 2008, Seyrafi still expects Apple to meet its goal of selling 10 million iPhones, but said it's unlikely that the company will apply any sizable near-term pressure to the industry's more established players.



"This Thursday [...] Apple will be discussing its SDK (software development kit) roadmap and will be discussing some enterprise features. The SDK may allow more enterprise applications (from the likes of IBM, Oracle, and Saleforce.com, for example) to be used on the iPhone," he wrote. "Still, we think that the enterprise smartphone market will, for the foreseeable future, be dominated by RIMM and Nokia."
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 206
    tbagginstbaggins Posts: 2,306member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Appleinsider


    Separately on Tuesday, Caris & Co. analyst Shebly Seyrafi issued a note to clients maintaining his Above Average rating on Apple but cutting his price target on shares of the company from $165 to $155, reflecting lower iPhone and iPod orders, as well as perceived weakness in consumer spending.



    He also issued reductions to both his fiscal 2008 and fiscal 2009 iPhone and iPod unit estimates. iPhone expectations were cut from 11.7 million and 22.3 million to 8.9 million and 17.7 million, respectively, while iPod units were trimmed from 54.6 million and 61.2 million to 52.1 million and 57.3 million.





    Ouch. Stevie, 3G iPhone... STAT!!! \



    Very preferably with MMS, video capture, voice dialing, etc. included. Y'know, all the good stuff that el cheapo cellphones now have on them standard.



    Plus, throw on the kind of camera that users expect a high-end phone to have. After all, its supposed to be a multifunction device, not a "Well, just get a separate camera if you want to take good pictures" device.







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  • Reply 2 of 206
    zenwaveszenwaves Posts: 77member
    I'll be on that line!
  • Reply 3 of 206
    What dates define the 2nd quarter? Could this Thursday's SDK meeting actually be the one where we see the 2nd gen. iphone?
  • Reply 4 of 206
    rot'napplerot'napple Posts: 1,839member
    Please "financial" institutions, please come out with more late breaking 3G iPhone news close to stock market closing, as to bump up AAPL by two or three bucks a day and within a month, we can get the stock back to $199.00 - said "tongue in cheek"!
  • Reply 5 of 206
    tbagginstbaggins Posts: 2,306member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by freethinker View Post


    What dates define the 2nd quarter?



    Article says second calendar quarter, so April 1 - June 30.







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  • Reply 6 of 206
    rot'napplerot'napple Posts: 1,839member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post


    Article says second calendar quarter, so April 1 - June 30.







    .





    The month of MAY - according to this guy...http://blogs.computerworld.com/3g_iphone_best_guesses
  • Reply 7 of 206
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Rot'nApple View Post


    The month of MAY - according to this guy...http://blogs.computerworld.com/3g_iphone_best_guesses



    Jeez louise!! I really hope Apple breaks away from At&t on the next iphone iteration. $20/30 rate hike per month? Is that following precedent for 3g phones?
  • Reply 8 of 206
    801801 Posts: 271member
    "Still, we think that the enterprise smartphone market will, for the foreseeable future, be dominated by RIMM and Nokia."



    How much do they pay these guys, again? I gotta get a job like this.
  • Reply 9 of 206
    jeffdmjeffdm Posts: 12,946member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post


    Ouch. Stevie, 3G iPhone... STAT!!! \



    Very preferably with MMS, video capture, voice dialing, etc. included. Y'know, all the good stuff that el cheapo cellphones now have on them standard.



    Plus, throw on the kind of camera that users expect a high-end phone to have. After all, its supposed to be a multifunction device, not a "Well, just get a separate camera if you want to take good pictures" device.



    But there aren't any phones with good cameras, except the few which more or less started out as something like a pocket camera but had a phone grafted onto it. The pictures I see of most "5MP" cameras show considerably less detail, look flatter and exhibit higher noise than my 3MP pocket camera.
  • Reply 10 of 206
    tenobelltenobell Posts: 7,014member
    Quote:

    Ouch. Stevie, 3G iPhone... STAT!!!



    How does that help the iPod which account for a much much larger percentage of Apple's revenue and received the larger cut in sales estimates.



    Quote:

    Plus, throw on the kind of camera that users expect a high-end phone to have. After all, its supposed to be a multifunction device, not a "Well, just get a separate camera if you want to take good pictures" device.



    The most effective way to improve the usability of the camera is to use a better lens and improve the analog to digital processing. Which will improve the dynamic range and low light capability. But to improve these aspects requires more electronics and a larger lens. Which means a larger phone and more battery drain.
  • Reply 11 of 206
    jeffdmjeffdm Posts: 12,946member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by 801 View Post


    "Still, we think that the enterprise smartphone market will, for the foreseeable future, be dominated by RIMM and Nokia."



    How much do they pay these guys, again? I gotta get a job like this.



    Is Nokia really much of a player in that business? I thought it was mostly RIMM and anyone else is just picking up scraps.
  • Reply 12 of 206
    gqbgqb Posts: 1,934member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post


    But there aren't any phones with good cameras, except the few which more or less started out as something like a pocket camera but had a phone grafted onto it. The pictures I see of most "5MP" cameras show considerably less detail, look flatter and exhibit higher noise than my 3MP pocket camera.



    Again, I want the SDK to support peripherals via the docking connector.

    - High quality camera snap-on with its own battery, zoom and flash. I don't care if it looks stupid or a little bulky. I want the hardware to be best in class, and controlled by the iPhone/touch.

    - ditto high quality sound recording.

    - keyboard/port expander.



    I want the iPhone/touch to be the hub of my digital swiss army knife.
  • Reply 13 of 206
    mcdaviesmcdavies Posts: 43member
    Stop it with the 3G predictions. Its not coming yet. The focus will be on getting the SDK ready and good. No 3G until FY09. We will have new apps this year only. After the OS/iPhone delays of last year, I don't' think apple the human resources yet to work all the products everyone is thinking they are making. Additionally, we are not going to have new hardware designs for a while. Change is not/well not happen as fast and the analyst say.





    I say this hoping I will be wrong. But i really think the Analyst push the change a little to fast. All it does is push the stock up only for a big let down on what is really good (but lest than analyst expected) news.
  • Reply 14 of 206
    tenobelltenobell Posts: 7,014member
    Quote:

    Stop it with the 3G predictions. Its not coming yet. The focus will be on getting the SDK ready and good. No 3G until FY09.



    3G will be this year. Apple needs a major iPhone refresh to meet the 10 million goal.
  • Reply 15 of 206
    8corewhore8corewhore Posts: 833member
    :d:d:d
  • Reply 16 of 206
    tbagginstbaggins Posts: 2,306member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post


    3G will be this year. Apple needs a major iPhone refresh to meet the 10 million goal.





    Whoa... for once I totally agree with you.



    Definitely a nice change from your past, '3G doesn't matter that much' and 'Apple can wait 2 years [from the US iPhone launch] to go 3G' stances.



    What finally brought you around?







    .
  • Reply 17 of 206
    tbagginstbaggins Posts: 2,306member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Rot'nApple View Post


    The month of MAY - according to this guy...http://blogs.computerworld.com/3g_iphone_best_guesses



    Meh... I HOPE it's May (or even sooner), but Weintraub's just guessing, like everyone else. My own prediction has been June for quite some time, at that's with me being cautiously optimistic. \



    Still, I did like what Weintraub said elsewhere. He seems to 'get' the situation pretty well:



    The EDGE-speed iPhone is accepted in the US because 3G is just being built out and frankly Americans don't know what they are missing. However, in Europe, the lack of 3G access is a much bigger issue. We know that the iPhone isn't meeting European sales expectations largely because of its lack of 3G data access (also because people are bringing them over from the US unlocked). If Apple thought it could coast by on EDGE in Europe, it was mistaken. Therefore, it needs to start selling the 3G version there ASAP.





    Well said, Seth. Now we just need that crazy 3G iPhone ASAP.



    .
  • Reply 18 of 206
    tbagginstbaggins Posts: 2,306member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post


    But there aren't any phones with good cameras, except the few which more or less started out as something like a pocket camera but had a phone grafted onto it. The pictures I see of most "5MP" cameras show considerably less detail, look flatter and exhibit higher noise than my 3MP pocket camera.





    I dunno Jeff... there's some Nokias out there with 5MP cameras and Carl Zeiss lenses. Presumably they take a pretty good pic.



    You may say, "Yeah... for a cellphone", but if that's what the high-end market wants, I think you give it to them. After all, one of the complaints of the Euros is that the iPhone's camera (2.0 MP) isn't competitive. Heck, it doesn't even do video capture. Even cheap cellphones have that these days.



    I just think its funny when Apple's own iPhone commercials tout how great it is to have everything in one device, and yet some ppl still argue that it's okay for the iPhone to not be good at certain things because ppl will just carry along another device to perform those functions. Obviously, not everyone is on the same page here.





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  • Reply 19 of 206
    d3appled3apple Posts: 1member
    Is it just me, or does anyone else think that Apple could surprise everyone and not actually release a 3G version of the iPhone, but rather an add-on that allows for 3G communications (via the doc-connector) for the current iPhone.



    Probably not, but I just find it hard to believe that they're gonna roll out the iPhone across Europe, only to release an updated version within a few months. Also, by doing it this way - they could sell to the millions of iPhone users already out there, who would surely gladly upgrade... makes more sense, no?



    Maybe Steve will announce it on Thurs... yeah, just before he gets on his pig and flies home \
  • Reply 20 of 206
    tbagginstbaggins Posts: 2,306member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post


    How does that help the iPod which account for a much much larger percentage of Apple's revenue and received the larger cut in sales estimates.



    Why would 3G iPhone sales have to help the iPod to make Apple's bottom line significantly better? The iPhone by itself has a significant impact on Apple's bottom line, accounting for around $1 billion in revenue in calendar Q4... 2.3 mil iPhones sold at 400+ bucks a pop, (Euro selling prices were higher), and Apple of course gets a small amt of monthly revenue from ATT.



    This $1 billion is out of $9.6 billion in total Apple revenues for the quarter, so the iPhone is around 10% of revenue... and that's with the iPhone in its infancy. Some have said it's only 3%, but I don't see where they get a number that low from. Odd.



    Now add to this that the investor-frenzy around the stock when it got run up to $200+ was in large part due to the 'iPhone growth story' (and much of the recent stock pullback has been due to said growth story looking less rosy), and you begin to to get the idea.





    Quote:

    The most effective way to improve the usability of the camera is to use a better lens and improve the analog to digital processing. Which will improve the dynamic range and low light capability. But to improve these aspects requires more electronics and a larger lens. Which means a larger phone and more battery drain.



    You may be worrying overmuch. The new Broadcom chip that Apple will allegedly be using for the 3G iPhone supports up to a 5.0 megapixel camera... AND video capture!(about time). All within a footprint that is quite reasonable, both in power and size:



    http://db.tidbits.com/article/9239





    The nice thing is that that brings the iPhone camera on par with its high-end competitors in Europe... assuming Apple doesn't completely cheap out on the lens. Or somehow strangely decides not to take full advantage of the features of the Broadcom chip that its apparently been waiting for for so long. \





    .
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