No, not trolling, not trying to get people to respond angrily, just asking if people are going to write articles, they are least try and cut down the emotive aspects of it, and just put in the facts.
Ugh, this is one of those cases where people say "you know what I mean."
You know what Dan meant (or you should have). Most cell manufacturers sell a plethora of phones, some "dumb" phones, some full-featured smartphones with big keyboards taking up space for a screen, some full-featured touchscreen models. Apple's simplified business model of offering a unified, full-featured touchscreen smartphone has shown itself to be very successful. I don't see how his statement was "emotive" in the least.
Sure, things like MMS are just fringe features that only a few crackpots would want and... oh wait. It's exactly the opposite of that:
A recent survey by the CTIA ? The Wireless Association reports... [that] cell phones are being used more for purposes like capturing and sending pictures and other multimedia messages, with more than 5.6 billion MMS recorded in the first half of 2008. This amount is equivalent to the number of MMSes sent in the whole year of 2007.
And that's just in the US. Imagine how many BILLIONS of pic/multimedia messages get sent worldwide each year. And, if the US in any indication, it's accelerating.
I've looked around, there doesn't seem to be much information on how many MMS messages are sent world wide. Their is more information on SMS, but still difficult to find current and accurate world wide numbers.
What I could find was still eclipsed by email. Its estimated that 62 billion emails are sent every day world wide.
Quote:
I think that's a bit of hype. Maybe in the very long-term, that's possible, but in the short- or medium-term, I doubt it. Why?
Anecdotally. Looking at the commercials carriers run these days. They are all for smartphones, or full QWRTY keyboard phones. I think these will quickly replace keypad phones.
Sure, but the rest of the world isn't 100% unsubsidized, anti-contract either.
You also seem to be ignoring my original point: the first generation iPhone was $500-$600 and was sold in the gray market because there was so much overseas demand. In addition, these iPhones were often sold at a premium by hawkers. Now the iPhone 3G is easily attainable in these countries at a lower price than what hawkers would charge.
I've looked around, there doesn't seem to be much information on how many MMS messages are sent world wide. Their is more information on SMS, but still difficult to find current and accurate world wide numbers.
You honestly think that MMSes are rare in places like Europe and Asia? Wow.
In any case, here's something I found:
"Almost 30 billion MMSes sent in 1Q08, says Informa"
There's also a cool little chart of how many MMSes were sent in Q1 '08, by carrier (though it lists only the bigger carriers).
For example, China Mobile alone had 6.6 billion MMSes sent in the 1st quarter. Verizon, 1.1 billion MMSes. And so on. What's more, the year-over-year amounts of MMSes sent is WAY UP for most of the carriers too.
Anecdotally. Looking at the commercials carriers run these days. They are all for smartphones, or full QWRTY keyboard phones. I think these will quickly replace keypad phones.
Smartphone share will increase, I've said that for a long time. But that doesn't mean dumbphones are going away, for the reasons I mentioned.
No, not trolling, not trying to get people to respond angrily, just asking if people are going to write articles, they are least try and cut down the emotive aspects of it, and just put in the facts.
Yes I have.
Well if both are true, I can't find them.
Why don't you give us a definition of what you think full featured means?
When you do that, you must keep the definition to a conceptual one, you can't be mentioning individual features.
It has to cover all sorts of products, such as cars, audio systems, cameras, computers, printers, Tv's, faxes, model cars, etc.
In other words, it has to have a meaning beyond some parochial one. A meaning that can be generalized, and be used in the real world, not some theoretical one in some ideal world.
Then we can begin to understand each other, and discuss this meaningfully, because right now, you are just saying no to whatever we say.
MMS is dead folks. (Ya know, I'm still not convinced it was alive in the first place.) We have a wonderful new technology called the Interweb now.
LOL. Sure. Which is why we're currently on a pace to sent 120 BILLION MMSes worldwide this year. And why MMS traffic is increasing year-over-year, greatly, rather than withering.
Check out the numbers for yourself (second article):
'Interweb' messaging may take over eventually (or it may just co-exist), but MMS is obviously thriving right now, and is still growing. Rather rapidly, too.
You honestly think that MMSes are rare in places like Europe and Asia? Wow.
In any case, here's something I found:
"Almost 30 billion MMSes sent in 1Q08, says Informa"
There's also a cool little chart of how many MMSes were sent in Q1 '08, by carrier (though it lists only the bigger carriers).
For example, China Mobile alone had 6.6 billion MMSes sent in the 1st quarter. Verizon, 1.1 billion MMSes. And so on. What's more, the year-over-year amounts of MMSes sent is WAY UP for most of the carriers too.
Smartphone share will increase, I've said that for a long time. But that doesn't mean dumbphones are going away, for the reasons I mentioned.
...
The number of MMS's sent doesn't matter. The number of faxes sent in some years was vast as well, but has shrunk significantly since e-mail.
MMS is an older technology. It's only been used because there was no other method to do what it does.
Now there is. E-mail is becoming more popular all the time.
As more phones get good e-mail capability, people will start using that over MMS, and eventually, MMS will fade away for most, except, possibly, for the cheapest phones.
Smartphones will eventually take over as they continue to become cheaper as well.
While some people still carp over the price of phone plans with data, is has been noted here that the iPhone was responsible for bringing the data rate down for many, if most users, not up.
That trend will continue. At some point, the plans won't be expensive.
It's all inevitable.
We can only argue about when it will happen. To argue that it won't is a losing argument even before it's stated.
LOL. Sure. Which is why we're currently on a pace to sent 120 BILLION MMSes worldwide this year. And why MMS traffic is increasing year-over-year, greatly, rather than withering.
Check out the numbers for yourself (second article):
LOL. Sure. Which is why we're currently on a pace to sent 120 BILLION MMSes worldwide this year. And why MMS traffic is increasing year-over-year, greatly, rather than withering.
...
To quote Melgross "Don't ever take what you see in the present for what you will see in the future."
The problem is, no one can predict the shape of that future, or when it will come.
In the meantime, ppl just wanna MMS.
...
Simply not true, I have a very good track record in predicting technological trends. But I can see why you may have difficulty in that area. No offense.
It means nothing other than the fact that more people are getting phones.
I really, really doubt it.
If you check out the figures, the year-over-year growth rates in MMS traffic for many carriers are VERY high (like on the order of 50%, 100%, even 250%), and are not explainable simply by 'more people are getting phones'.
Take Verizon, for example. Their year-over-year increase in MMS traffic is 144%. Verizon has not more than DOUBLED in number of subscribers in the past year. That increase is more like 10%.
So, either MMS pricing is becoming more attractive (and Verizon is offering some nice MMS 'plans' these days), the technology itself is being more popularized on its' own, or it's some combination of the two.
Simply not true, I have a very good track record in predicting technological trends. But I can see why you may have difficulty in that area. No offense.
Sure. This is why you're on an internet forum, rather than making money as a big famous tech stocks analyst.
But how many of those emails are sent on phones? Certainly a tiny fraction of the whole.
In any case, you can see that MMS is quite a popular technology.
...
The current number isn't that important, it's the growth of email that is the real tell. Since it is more ubiquitous and their is a trend to more powerful devices that can support email it look inevitable in the more developed countries.
The problem is, no one can predict the shape of that future, or when it will come.
In the meantime, ppl just wanna MMS.
...
It's not that people WANT MMS, it's all most people can use.
That's a very different situation.
I don't want MMS. I've never bothered to use it.
Over time, more people won't use it.
What happens to "standards" is that they melt away after they aren't needed.
If someone has a phone with MMS and e-mail, and they want to send a pic to someone with, say, an iPhone, an increasingly normal situation, what will they use? MMS? No!
As more phones come with e-mail, as I've been saying, more people will stop using MMS.
It's going to happen.
It doesn't matter if a trillion MMS's are sent every year now, even if the number is still increasing. That increase will first slow down before it starts to shrink. It will take years, then it will be sudden.
Like the way digital cameras took over the photo industry. It was very slow at first, as the cameras were expensive, and not very good. As they got better and cheaper, people bought more of them. At first, people shot both film and digital, but slowly stopped shooting film.
Then, at a point when digital cameras both became cheap enough and good enough, film rapidly dropped. Today, some people still shoot film, and will for a while, but film is effectively dead.
MMS and e-mail on phone will follow that same track.
At one point well over a trillion photos were taken each year over the world with film. How could anything ever beat that?
The same thing was true for 78's, 45 and long play Lp's, cassettes, and will of DVD's, and CD's.
Standard B/W Tv, and now SD color are all gone, or rapidly going.
Comments
No, not trolling, not trying to get people to respond angrily, just asking if people are going to write articles, they are least try and cut down the emotive aspects of it, and just put in the facts.
Ugh, this is one of those cases where people say "you know what I mean."
You know what Dan meant (or you should have). Most cell manufacturers sell a plethora of phones, some "dumb" phones, some full-featured smartphones with big keyboards taking up space for a screen, some full-featured touchscreen models. Apple's simplified business model of offering a unified, full-featured touchscreen smartphone has shown itself to be very successful. I don't see how his statement was "emotive" in the least.
Sure, things like MMS are just fringe features that only a few crackpots would want and... oh wait. It's exactly the opposite of that:
A recent survey by the CTIA ? The Wireless Association reports... [that] cell phones are being used more for purposes like capturing and sending pictures and other multimedia messages, with more than 5.6 billion MMS recorded in the first half of 2008. This amount is equivalent to the number of MMSes sent in the whole year of 2007.
And that's just in the US. Imagine how many BILLIONS of pic/multimedia messages get sent worldwide each year. And, if the US in any indication, it's accelerating.
I've looked around, there doesn't seem to be much information on how many MMS messages are sent world wide. Their is more information on SMS, but still difficult to find current and accurate world wide numbers.
What I could find was still eclipsed by email. Its estimated that 62 billion emails are sent every day world wide.
I think that's a bit of hype. Maybe in the very long-term, that's possible, but in the short- or medium-term, I doubt it. Why?
Anecdotally. Looking at the commercials carriers run these days. They are all for smartphones, or full QWRTY keyboard phones. I think these will quickly replace keypad phones.
And the US are a small player in the GSM market.
Sure, but the rest of the world isn't 100% unsubsidized, anti-contract either.
You also seem to be ignoring my original point: the first generation iPhone was $500-$600 and was sold in the gray market because there was so much overseas demand. In addition, these iPhones were often sold at a premium by hawkers. Now the iPhone 3G is easily attainable in these countries at a lower price than what hawkers would charge.
The original model wasn't subsidised.
Then why the hell did you bring it up!
I've looked around, there doesn't seem to be much information on how many MMS messages are sent world wide. Their is more information on SMS, but still difficult to find current and accurate world wide numbers.
You honestly think that MMSes are rare in places like Europe and Asia? Wow.
In any case, here's something I found:
"Almost 30 billion MMSes sent in 1Q08, says Informa"
There's also a cool little chart of how many MMSes were sent in Q1 '08, by carrier (though it lists only the bigger carriers).
For example, China Mobile alone had 6.6 billion MMSes sent in the 1st quarter. Verizon, 1.1 billion MMSes. And so on. What's more, the year-over-year amounts of MMSes sent is WAY UP for most of the carriers too.
http://www.jasperwireless.com/files/...ac_Excerpt.pdf
Anecdotally. Looking at the commercials carriers run these days. They are all for smartphones, or full QWRTY keyboard phones. I think these will quickly replace keypad phones.
Smartphone share will increase, I've said that for a long time. But that doesn't mean dumbphones are going away, for the reasons I mentioned.
...
No, not trolling, not trying to get people to respond angrily, just asking if people are going to write articles, they are least try and cut down the emotive aspects of it, and just put in the facts.
Yes I have.
Well if both are true, I can't find them.
Why don't you give us a definition of what you think full featured means?
When you do that, you must keep the definition to a conceptual one, you can't be mentioning individual features.
It has to cover all sorts of products, such as cars, audio systems, cameras, computers, printers, Tv's, faxes, model cars, etc.
In other words, it has to have a meaning beyond some parochial one. A meaning that can be generalized, and be used in the real world, not some theoretical one in some ideal world.
Then we can begin to understand each other, and discuss this meaningfully, because right now, you are just saying no to whatever we say.
MMS is dead folks. (Ya know, I'm still not convinced it was alive in the first place.) We have a wonderful new technology called the Interweb now.
LOL. Sure. Which is why we're currently on a pace to sent 120 BILLION MMSes worldwide this year. And why MMS traffic is increasing year-over-year, greatly, rather than withering.
Check out the numbers for yourself (second article):
http://www.jasperwireless.com/files/...ac_Excerpt.pdf
'Interweb' messaging may take over eventually (or it may just co-exist), but MMS is obviously thriving right now, and is still growing. Rather rapidly, too.
...
You honestly think that MMSes are rare in places like Europe and Asia? Wow.
In any case, here's something I found:
"Almost 30 billion MMSes sent in 1Q08, says Informa"
There's also a cool little chart of how many MMSes were sent in Q1 '08, by carrier (though it lists only the bigger carriers).
For example, China Mobile alone had 6.6 billion MMSes sent in the 1st quarter. Verizon, 1.1 billion MMSes. And so on. What's more, the year-over-year amounts of MMSes sent is WAY UP for most of the carriers too.
http://www.jasperwireless.com/files/...ac_Excerpt.pdf
Smartphone share will increase, I've said that for a long time. But that doesn't mean dumbphones are going away, for the reasons I mentioned.
...
The number of MMS's sent doesn't matter. The number of faxes sent in some years was vast as well, but has shrunk significantly since e-mail.
MMS is an older technology. It's only been used because there was no other method to do what it does.
Now there is. E-mail is becoming more popular all the time.
As more phones get good e-mail capability, people will start using that over MMS, and eventually, MMS will fade away for most, except, possibly, for the cheapest phones.
Smartphones will eventually take over as they continue to become cheaper as well.
While some people still carp over the price of phone plans with data, is has been noted here that the iPhone was responsible for bringing the data rate down for many, if most users, not up.
That trend will continue. At some point, the plans won't be expensive.
It's all inevitable.
We can only argue about when it will happen. To argue that it won't is a losing argument even before it's stated.
LOL. Sure. Which is why we're currently on a pace to sent 120 BILLION MMSes worldwide this year. And why MMS traffic is increasing year-over-year, greatly, rather than withering.
Check out the numbers for yourself (second article):
http://www.jasperwireless.com/files/...ac_Excerpt.pdf
'Interweb' messaging may take over eventually (or it may just co-exist), but MMS is obviously thriving right now, and is still growing.
...
It means nothing other than the fact that more people are getting phones.
Change comes, and most people don't see it until well after it's happened.
LOL. Sure. Which is why we're currently on a pace to sent 120 BILLION MMSes worldwide this year. And why MMS traffic is increasing year-over-year, greatly, rather than withering.
...
To quote Melgross "Don't ever take what you see in the present for what you will see in the future."
To quote Melgross "Don't ever take what you see in the present for what you will see in the future."
The problem is, no one can predict the shape of that future, or when it will come.
In the meantime, ppl just wanna MMS.
...
The problem is, no one can predict the shape of that future, or when it will come.
In the meantime, ppl just wanna MMS.
...
Simply not true, I have a very good track record in predicting technological trends. But I can see why you may have difficulty in that area. No offense.
I simply said in the time that approximately this many (30,000,000,000,000) MMS messages were sent.
Approximately this many (22,630,000,000,000,000) emails were sent.
Email is clearly a larger and more ubiquitous system.
You honestly think that MMSes are rare in places like Europe and Asia? Wow. "Almost 30 billion MMSes sent in 1Q08, says Informa"
...
It means nothing other than the fact that more people are getting phones.
I really, really doubt it.
If you check out the figures, the year-over-year growth rates in MMS traffic for many carriers are VERY high (like on the order of 50%, 100%, even 250%), and are not explainable simply by 'more people are getting phones'.
Take Verizon, for example. Their year-over-year increase in MMS traffic is 144%. Verizon has not more than DOUBLED in number of subscribers in the past year. That increase is more like 10%.
So, either MMS pricing is becoming more attractive (and Verizon is offering some nice MMS 'plans' these days), the technology itself is being more popularized on its' own, or it's some combination of the two.
It's also probably somewhat generational.
...
I said nothing about how frequent or rare is MMS.
I simply said in the time that approximately this many (30,000,000,000,000) MMS messages were sent.
Approximately this many (22,630,000,000,000,000) emails were sent.
Email is clearly a larger and more ubiquitous system.
But how many of those emails are sent on phones? Certainly a tiny fraction of the whole.
In any case, you can see that MMS is quite a popular technology.
...
Simply not true, I have a very good track record in predicting technological trends. But I can see why you may have difficulty in that area. No offense.
Sure. This is why you're on an internet forum, rather than making money as a big famous tech stocks analyst.
No offense.
...
I wont use my iPhone as an ipod or dedicated video device in fear that I will run out my phone battery.
But how many of those emails are sent on phones? Certainly a tiny fraction of the whole.
In any case, you can see that MMS is quite a popular technology.
...
The current number isn't that important, it's the growth of email that is the real tell. Since it is more ubiquitous and their is a trend to more powerful devices that can support email it look inevitable in the more developed countries.
The problem is, no one can predict the shape of that future, or when it will come.
In the meantime, ppl just wanna MMS.
...
It's not that people WANT MMS, it's all most people can use.
That's a very different situation.
I don't want MMS. I've never bothered to use it.
Over time, more people won't use it.
What happens to "standards" is that they melt away after they aren't needed.
If someone has a phone with MMS and e-mail, and they want to send a pic to someone with, say, an iPhone, an increasingly normal situation, what will they use? MMS? No!
As more phones come with e-mail, as I've been saying, more people will stop using MMS.
It's going to happen.
It doesn't matter if a trillion MMS's are sent every year now, even if the number is still increasing. That increase will first slow down before it starts to shrink. It will take years, then it will be sudden.
Like the way digital cameras took over the photo industry. It was very slow at first, as the cameras were expensive, and not very good. As they got better and cheaper, people bought more of them. At first, people shot both film and digital, but slowly stopped shooting film.
Then, at a point when digital cameras both became cheap enough and good enough, film rapidly dropped. Today, some people still shoot film, and will for a while, but film is effectively dead.
MMS and e-mail on phone will follow that same track.
At one point well over a trillion photos were taken each year over the world with film. How could anything ever beat that?
The same thing was true for 78's, 45 and long play Lp's, cassettes, and will of DVD's, and CD's.
Standard B/W Tv, and now SD color are all gone, or rapidly going.
Who wouda thunk?