The number of MMS's sent doesn't matter. The number of faxes sent in some years was vast as well, but has shrunk significantly since e-mail.
MMS is an older technology. It's only been used because there was no other method to do what it does.
Now there is. E-mail is becoming more popular all the time.
As more phones get good e-mail capability, people will start using that over MMS, and eventually, MMS will fade away for most, except, possibly, for the cheapest phones.
Mobile email and IM may very well be the future, Mel. Thing is, MMS is the now.
It's not just that MMS is very popular (it is), it's that it's going to be popular for at least a few more years to come. Check out the year-over-year growth rates... MMS is becoming MORE popular and more used right now, not less. It's still on an upwards trajectory.
Let's say that email and IM take over five, ten years from now. Great. Doesn't really help the person who wants to MMS right now. His friends and family all use MMS. Citing the future to them will get quizzical looks at best.
There's "skating to where the puck will be", and then there's "waiting patiently outside the factory where the puck is being made, waiting 'til it's made, shipped, delivered, and THEN skating to where the puck will be."
You see my point. But FWIW, I don't think we're worlds apart here. I think our main difference is over timing, and what's most practical in the meantime.
If you check out the figures, the year-over-year growth rates in MMS traffic for many carriers are VERY high (like on the order of 50%, 100%, even 250%), and are not explainable simply by 'more people are getting phones'.
Take Verizon, for example. Their year-over-year increase in MMS traffic is 144%. Verizon has not more than DOUBLED in number of subscribers in the past year. That increase is more like 10%.
So, either MMS pricing is becoming more attractive (and Verizon is offering some nice MMS 'plans' these days), the technology itself is being more popularized on its' own, or it's some combination of the two.
It's also probably somewhat generational.
...
Even if MMS numbers look promising, they could be (and likely are) the result of...a lack of options. Most dumbphones lack email clients, web browsers, and decent IM clients. If people had a real choice, many would likely email photos for free rather than being charged for the same basic functionality with MMS.
If you check out the figures, the year-over-year growth rates in MMS traffic for many carriers are VERY high (like on the order of 50%, 100%, even 250%), and are not explainable simply by 'more people are getting phones'.
Take Verizon, for example. Their year-over-year increase in MMS traffic is 144%. Verizon has not more than DOUBLED in number of subscribers in the past year. That increase is more like 10%.
So, either MMS pricing is becoming more attractive (and Verizon is offering some nice MMS 'plans' these days), the technology itself is being more popularized on its' own, or it's some combination of the two.
It's also probably somewhat generational.
...
Doesn't matter.
It simply doesn't. All it means it that the number of phones, esp in the less developed regions have been buying phones at greater rates, which matches the industries growth. When phone growth slows that will too. Once better smartphones begin replacing those other MMS only phones, MMS will begin to slow.
Sure, things like MMS are just fringe features that only a few crackpots would want and... oh wait. It's exactly the opposite of that:
.
Again, depends on what market Apple wants to focus on first. Its called a 'plan', and evidence shows that Jobs is executing better than ANYONE else in the industry.
As for MMS, I think that's a classic example of niche (yes I said it... 'niche') market for kids, at least at the moment. Apple is losing nothing by having that as a future feature, and focusing on what the vast market really wants... great implementation of the 80% rule with real dev platform.
'Hey Dig Me' photos and video clips zooming between self-absorbed buddies is not prime functionality.
(and now even Melgross has someone he can point to as really beyond the pale...
I think the problem is that a lot of people are jealous of all the attention and spotlight the iPhone and Apple products recieve, this just gets to them.
Mobile email and IM may very well be the future, Mel. Thing is, MMS is the now.
It's not just that MMS is very popular (it is), it's that it's going to be popular for at least a few more years to come. Check out the year-over-year growth rates... MMS is becoming MORE popular and more used right now, not less. It's still on an upwards trajectory.
Let's say that email and IM take over five, ten years from now. Great. Doesn't really help the person who wants to MMS right now. His friends and family all use MMS. Citing the future to them will get quizzical looks at best.
There's "skating to where the puck will be", and then there's "waiting patiently outside the factory where the puck is being made, waiting 'til it's made, shipped, delivered, and THEN skating to where the puck will be."
You see my point. But FWIW, I don't think we're worlds apart here. I think our main difference is over timing, and what's most practical in the meantime.
...
I don't care abut the "now". I'm not talking about the "now".
The now is only important for a short while.
You can take a slice of time from anywhere you like, and call it the "now". Look to see what was important, and see if it's important today. Chances that many things that were, either aren't, or may not even be remembered.
In five years, e-mail will be far more important that it is today on phones, and MMS will be far less important.
I don't miss MMS at all, and I know lots of people with iPhones. none of them seem to miss it either.
Simply not true, I have a very good track record in predicting technological trends. But I can see why you may have difficulty in that area. No offense.
That's quite a brazen statement, where is this track record?
All it means it that the number of phones, esp in the less developed regions have been buying phones at greater rates, which matches the industries growth.
Umm... whaaa? Phones are buying phones? What are you trying to say here?
Quote:
When phone growth slows that will too. Once better smartphones begin replacing those other MMS only phones, MMS will begin to slow.
These current trends mean nothing.
You'll see.
Again, I don't think you're understanding that our current disagreement is mostly about time. Eventually, what you say (which I largely agree with, btw), will come to pass.
But now, and in the near-term, MMS will continue to be quite the workhorse. And something that ppl want.
Doesn't matter if email can make me mixed drinks. In the here and now, ppl widely use, and want MMS.
I can cite chapter and verse to you how great fuel cell cars will be in the future, won't matter to you if you want to get around town right now.
...
The only thing that matters, and tells you anything about that is how well the iPhone is doing in the smartphone market as a whole, and how many other smartphones are coming out with similar e-mail features. All new smartphones are coming out with similar e-mail functions.
The fact that the iPhone has the greatest growth, and has already risen to a high level says something important. Obviously no iPhone user considers MMS to be so important that they refused to buy the phone because of it. Yes, I know that you can "assume" that some people didn't buy the phone because of it, but you can't prove a negative.
If Apple comes out with a $99 iPhone, as is assumed they will eventually do, then the sales of that will be great, and e-mail will become ever more important as other makers rush to duplicate that feature in a less expensive phone as well.
I see a number of phones having both for the near and medium future, but less so over time.
I don't care abut the "now". I'm not talking about the "now".
The now is only important for a short while.
"A short while"? You mean, the lifetime of your average cellphone? It's a "short while" kind of market, when it comes to features. You might not care about the now, but many others do.
No MMS might not be a big deal in 2015. Right now, for many, it is. I don't think there's a way to argue around that, except to say that, for you, it's okay.
And that's fine. What about all the people who are not you?
Umm... whaaa? Phones are buying phones? What are you trying to say here?
Uh, I'm sure you understand that that was a typo.
The word was "people".
Quote:
Again, I don't think you're understanding that our current disagreement is mostly about time. Eventually, what you say (which I largely agree with, btw), will come to pass.
But now, and in the near-term, MMS will continue to be quite the workhorse. And something that ppl want.
...
I've made it very clear that I'm talking about the future, not now.
No one here can give a date for this turnover. I can't. But it sure will happen!
Will it be three years, five years, eight years? Who knows?
The economic situation can affect this in a big way. We already know that all phones sales projections are well down from just three months ago.
The fact that the iPhone has the greatest growth, and has already risen to a high level says something important. Obviously no iPhone user considers MMS to be so important that they refused to buy the phone because of it. Yes, I know that you can "assume" that some people didn't buy the phone because of it, but you can't prove a negative.
I think many ppl, particularly overseas, didn't like the no MMS, but were willing to overlook it, especially once 3G came along, because the iPhone was breakthrough in some ways.
One thing we won't know, unless some sort of survey is done, is how many ppl didn't buy the iPhone because of it. However, given the initial lukewarm reception in Europe, I'd have to say it was likely a significant number, though other things contributed (price, no 3G at first, etc.)
Quote:
If Apple comes out with a $99 iPhone, as is assumed they will eventually do, then the sales of that will be great, and e-mail will become ever more important as other makers rush to duplicate that feature in a less expensive phone as well.
I see a number of phones having both for the near and medium future, but less so over time.
Sure. Eventually, mobile email and IM should start being very popular. But again, that isn't now. And I don't care that you don't care about now, because now is where I'm using my cellphone, not the future.
Yes the iPhone has a few key features that I hope they will add in the near future.
( not even key, how about features of convinience)
Cut and paste is not on the top of my list either.
1. I would like to see the ability to view Flash on web pages
2. Send pictures in texts
3. Editable text dictionary
4. Some of the bugs when you call and the screen turns off and won't turn back on.
There are more but I cant think of them now.
The feature I want more than anything relates to getting the phone stolen. I want to be able to pin-lock the iPhone from iTunes using my iTunes password. Then also have the iPhone email its location from time to time.
One reason why some people don't buy premium products is because they are worried about losing them and, maybe, getting stabbed/shot in the process. If the iPhone were well-known to be the phone that no thief should ever risk taking, that would be great.
I've made it very clear that I'm talking about the future, not now.
And I've made it very clear that I understand this and am sorta kinda agreeing with you, for some unspecified date in the future, though certainly not for now or the near-term.
Comments
The point is that email is a larger system, more flexible, device agnostic, and free.
MMS is limited to phones, limited in the type of message, and costs money.
But how many of those emails are sent on phones? Certainly a tiny fraction of the whole.
In any case, you can see that MMS is quite a popular technology.
...
The number of MMS's sent doesn't matter. The number of faxes sent in some years was vast as well, but has shrunk significantly since e-mail.
MMS is an older technology. It's only been used because there was no other method to do what it does.
Now there is. E-mail is becoming more popular all the time.
As more phones get good e-mail capability, people will start using that over MMS, and eventually, MMS will fade away for most, except, possibly, for the cheapest phones.
Mobile email and IM may very well be the future, Mel. Thing is, MMS is the now.
It's not just that MMS is very popular (it is), it's that it's going to be popular for at least a few more years to come. Check out the year-over-year growth rates... MMS is becoming MORE popular and more used right now, not less. It's still on an upwards trajectory.
Let's say that email and IM take over five, ten years from now. Great. Doesn't really help the person who wants to MMS right now. His friends and family all use MMS. Citing the future to them will get quizzical looks at best.
There's "skating to where the puck will be", and then there's "waiting patiently outside the factory where the puck is being made, waiting 'til it's made, shipped, delivered, and THEN skating to where the puck will be."
You see my point. But FWIW, I don't think we're worlds apart here. I think our main difference is over timing, and what's most practical in the meantime.
...
I really, really doubt it.
If you check out the figures, the year-over-year growth rates in MMS traffic for many carriers are VERY high (like on the order of 50%, 100%, even 250%), and are not explainable simply by 'more people are getting phones'.
Take Verizon, for example. Their year-over-year increase in MMS traffic is 144%. Verizon has not more than DOUBLED in number of subscribers in the past year. That increase is more like 10%.
So, either MMS pricing is becoming more attractive (and Verizon is offering some nice MMS 'plans' these days), the technology itself is being more popularized on its' own, or it's some combination of the two.
It's also probably somewhat generational.
...
Even if MMS numbers look promising, they could be (and likely are) the result of...a lack of options. Most dumbphones lack email clients, web browsers, and decent IM clients. If people had a real choice, many would likely email photos for free rather than being charged for the same basic functionality with MMS.
I really, really doubt it.
If you check out the figures, the year-over-year growth rates in MMS traffic for many carriers are VERY high (like on the order of 50%, 100%, even 250%), and are not explainable simply by 'more people are getting phones'.
Take Verizon, for example. Their year-over-year increase in MMS traffic is 144%. Verizon has not more than DOUBLED in number of subscribers in the past year. That increase is more like 10%.
So, either MMS pricing is becoming more attractive (and Verizon is offering some nice MMS 'plans' these days), the technology itself is being more popularized on its' own, or it's some combination of the two.
It's also probably somewhat generational.
...
Doesn't matter.
It simply doesn't. All it means it that the number of phones, esp in the less developed regions have been buying phones at greater rates, which matches the industries growth. When phone growth slows that will too. Once better smartphones begin replacing those other MMS only phones, MMS will begin to slow.
These current trends mean nothing.
You'll see.
Doesn't matter how many emails are sent on phones right now.
The point is that email is a larger system, more flexible, device agnostic, and free.
MMS is limited to phones, limited in the type of message, and costs money.
Doesn't matter if email can make me mixed drinks. In the here and now, ppl widely use, and want MMS.
I can cite chapter and verse to you how great fuel cell cars will be in the future, won't matter to you if you want to get around town right now.
...
Just passin' through:
Sure, things like MMS are just fringe features that only a few crackpots would want and... oh wait. It's exactly the opposite of that:
.
Again, depends on what market Apple wants to focus on first. Its called a 'plan', and evidence shows that Jobs is executing better than ANYONE else in the industry.
As for MMS, I think that's a classic example of niche (yes I said it... 'niche') market for kids, at least at the moment. Apple is losing nothing by having that as a future feature, and focusing on what the vast market really wants... great implementation of the 80% rule with real dev platform.
'Hey Dig Me' photos and video clips zooming between self-absorbed buddies is not prime functionality.
(and now even Melgross has someone he can point to as really beyond the pale...
Mobile email and IM may very well be the future, Mel. Thing is, MMS is the now.
It's not just that MMS is very popular (it is), it's that it's going to be popular for at least a few more years to come. Check out the year-over-year growth rates... MMS is becoming MORE popular and more used right now, not less. It's still on an upwards trajectory.
Let's say that email and IM take over five, ten years from now. Great. Doesn't really help the person who wants to MMS right now. His friends and family all use MMS. Citing the future to them will get quizzical looks at best.
There's "skating to where the puck will be", and then there's "waiting patiently outside the factory where the puck is being made, waiting 'til it's made, shipped, delivered, and THEN skating to where the puck will be."
You see my point. But FWIW, I don't think we're worlds apart here. I think our main difference is over timing, and what's most practical in the meantime.
...
I don't care abut the "now". I'm not talking about the "now".
The now is only important for a short while.
You can take a slice of time from anywhere you like, and call it the "now". Look to see what was important, and see if it's important today. Chances that many things that were, either aren't, or may not even be remembered.
In five years, e-mail will be far more important that it is today on phones, and MMS will be far less important.
I don't miss MMS at all, and I know lots of people with iPhones. none of them seem to miss it either.
Simply not true, I have a very good track record in predicting technological trends. But I can see why you may have difficulty in that area. No offense.
That's quite a brazen statement, where is this track record?
All it means it that the number of phones, esp in the less developed regions have been buying phones at greater rates, which matches the industries growth.
Umm... whaaa? Phones are buying phones? What are you trying to say here?
When phone growth slows that will too. Once better smartphones begin replacing those other MMS only phones, MMS will begin to slow.
These current trends mean nothing.
You'll see.
Again, I don't think you're understanding that our current disagreement is mostly about time. Eventually, what you say (which I largely agree with, btw), will come to pass.
But now, and in the near-term, MMS will continue to be quite the workhorse. And something that ppl want.
...
As for MMS, I think that's a classic example of niche (yes I said it... 'niche') market for kids, at least at the moment.
120 billion MMSes per year and growing rapidly is not a niche. Sorry.
I do like the "those damn kids" aspect of your post though. Makes me visualize an old guy shaking his fist at kids playing on his lawn.
...
Doesn't matter if email can make me mixed drinks. In the here and now, ppl widely use, and want MMS.
I can cite chapter and verse to you how great fuel cell cars will be in the future, won't matter to you if you want to get around town right now.
...
The only thing that matters, and tells you anything about that is how well the iPhone is doing in the smartphone market as a whole, and how many other smartphones are coming out with similar e-mail features. All new smartphones are coming out with similar e-mail functions.
The fact that the iPhone has the greatest growth, and has already risen to a high level says something important. Obviously no iPhone user considers MMS to be so important that they refused to buy the phone because of it. Yes, I know that you can "assume" that some people didn't buy the phone because of it, but you can't prove a negative.
If Apple comes out with a $99 iPhone, as is assumed they will eventually do, then the sales of that will be great, and e-mail will become ever more important as other makers rush to duplicate that feature in a less expensive phone as well.
I see a number of phones having both for the near and medium future, but less so over time.
I don't care abut the "now". I'm not talking about the "now".
The now is only important for a short while.
"A short while"? You mean, the lifetime of your average cellphone? It's a "short while" kind of market, when it comes to features. You might not care about the now, but many others do.
No MMS might not be a big deal in 2015. Right now, for many, it is. I don't think there's a way to argue around that, except to say that, for you, it's okay.
And that's fine. What about all the people who are not you?
...
Sure. This is why you're on an internet forum, rather than making money as a big famous tech stocks analyst.
No offense.
...
No offense taken. I have a long string of innovative and forward thinking achievements thanks.
There are many people on this forum who are not short of a few dollar, I think they come here for fun.
Umm... whaaa? Phones are buying phones? What are you trying to say here?
Uh, I'm sure you understand that that was a typo.
The word was "people".
Again, I don't think you're understanding that our current disagreement is mostly about time. Eventually, what you say (which I largely agree with, btw), will come to pass.
But now, and in the near-term, MMS will continue to be quite the workhorse. And something that ppl want.
...
I've made it very clear that I'm talking about the future, not now.
No one here can give a date for this turnover. I can't. But it sure will happen!
Will it be three years, five years, eight years? Who knows?
The economic situation can affect this in a big way. We already know that all phones sales projections are well down from just three months ago.
The lack of a replaceable battery is what keeps iPhone users from ditching their iPods all together, has very little to do with aesthetics.
I wont use my iPhone as an ipod or dedicated video device in fear that I will run out my phone battery.
So you carry an iPod, a cell phone, and two cell phone batteries with you at all times?
The fact that the iPhone has the greatest growth, and has already risen to a high level says something important. Obviously no iPhone user considers MMS to be so important that they refused to buy the phone because of it. Yes, I know that you can "assume" that some people didn't buy the phone because of it, but you can't prove a negative.
I think many ppl, particularly overseas, didn't like the no MMS, but were willing to overlook it, especially once 3G came along, because the iPhone was breakthrough in some ways.
One thing we won't know, unless some sort of survey is done, is how many ppl didn't buy the iPhone because of it. However, given the initial lukewarm reception in Europe, I'd have to say it was likely a significant number, though other things contributed (price, no 3G at first, etc.)
If Apple comes out with a $99 iPhone, as is assumed they will eventually do, then the sales of that will be great, and e-mail will become ever more important as other makers rush to duplicate that feature in a less expensive phone as well.
I see a number of phones having both for the near and medium future, but less so over time.
Sure. Eventually, mobile email and IM should start being very popular. But again, that isn't now. And I don't care that you don't care about now, because now is where I'm using my cellphone, not the future.
...
Yes the iPhone has a few key features that I hope they will add in the near future.
( not even key, how about features of convinience)
Cut and paste is not on the top of my list either.
1. I would like to see the ability to view Flash on web pages
2. Send pictures in texts
3. Editable text dictionary
4. Some of the bugs when you call and the screen turns off and won't turn back on.
There are more but I cant think of them now.
The feature I want more than anything relates to getting the phone stolen. I want to be able to pin-lock the iPhone from iTunes using my iTunes password. Then also have the iPhone email its location from time to time.
One reason why some people don't buy premium products is because they are worried about losing them and, maybe, getting stabbed/shot in the process. If the iPhone were well-known to be the phone that no thief should ever risk taking, that would be great.
I've made it very clear that I'm talking about the future, not now.
And I've made it very clear that I understand this and am sorta kinda agreeing with you, for some unspecified date in the future, though certainly not for now or the near-term.
So we're debating about, what, precisely?
...
No offense taken. I have a long string of innovative and forward thinking achievements thanks.
I'm absolutely convinced that you do. In your own mind.
And you're welcome.
...