I pre-ordered my 3G S from Apple.com for pickup at my local store the day of launch. So as long as I get there by 8 AM and have my pre-order print-out, I should be OK, right?
Yes. In reality -- Apple stores get THOUSANDS of iPhones in stock on launch day -- provided something doesn't go wrong with shipping -- and they will take care of all pre-orders first. They will also have regular phones ready to go at 10:00...That doesn't mean that by 11:00 both sets of stock aren't sold out -- but if you go when the store starts their pre-order sales, you will be good to go.
As to waiting in line -- Apple has a notoriously dedicated fanbase who will do that for iPhones or the launches of new macbooks too -- there was a line at my local Apple Store when their Macbook Airs first came in -- and they sold them all in an hour.
I haven't seen that kind of dedication to any other computer company. Iphone = Apple = fanbase. Pre = Sprint? = who cares.
You can bet that the iPHone 3G S launch will be just as big as their other launches have been,
As to the Broadband question -- how many of the iPhone 3G S phones do you think are going to be new activiations on top their exisiting user base -- and how many are iPhone and iPhone 3G users that are upgrading or trading up....I will bet that's the larger number.
Last year in line at the Apple Store in Ann Arbor, MI, not one single person among the people I was standing with in line was getting a new activation -- all of them were upgrading from their original iPHones from the year before, and even used their iPhones to read the updates on the stock for the store on-line as the supplies started to dwindle.
That is fan dedication. And that is the disposable income market that Apple has long gone after.
I'm not worried about the launch this year. Last year was a disaster, in part, because they launched iPhone OS 2.0 at the same time. As a result, a lot of the installed base was upgrading the firmware, which required re-activation.
This year, the firmware comes out 2 days early (thanks to the WWDC and torrents, it's been installed by quite a number already). In addition to just being better prepared this year as a routine, many of the iPhones are being sent out via pre-order...and many iPhones will be sent to far more locations than last year.
Good points, but I recall a lot of people with AT&T accounts moving to the iPhone 3G having to wait longer than new accounts for activation.
I also hope that the GM build they released on Monday is not the finale build set for next week. While it?s much more stable than the v2.0 they released last year, there are still some stability issues that weren?t present with the last 9 months on v2.0 builds. Still, it?s pretty damn good and will be the most stable build for an iPhone release to date.
Yes. In reality -- Apple stores get THOUSANDS of iPhones in stock on launch day -- provided something doesn't go wrong with shipping -- and they will take care of all pre-orders first. They will also have regular phones ready to go at 10:00...That doesn't mean that by 11:00 both sets of stock aren't sold out -- but if you go when the store starts their pre-order sales, you will be good to go.
As to waiting in line -- Apple has a notoriously dedicated fanbase who will do that for iPhones or the launches of new macbooks too -- there was a line at my local Apple Store when their Macbook Airs first came in -- and they sold them all in an hour.
I haven't seen that kind of dedication to any other computer company. Iphone = Apple = fanbase. Pre = Sprint? = who cares.
You can bet that the iPHone 3G S launch will be just as big as their other launches have been,
As to the Broadband question -- how many of the iPhone 3G S phones do you think are going to be new activiations on top their exisiting user base -- and how many are iPhone and iPhone 3G users that are upgrading or trading up....I will bet that's the larger number.
Last year in line at the Apple Store in Ann Arbor, MI, not one single person among the people I was standing with in line was getting a new activation -- all of them were upgrading from their original iPHones from the year before, and even used their iPhones to read the updates on the stock for the store on-line as the supplies started to dwindle.
That is fan dedication. And that is the disposable income market that Apple has long gone after.
Great post.
while your in line you can print out a copy this review, I found over at MS central mag.
I just had Apple ship mine to my house. Says delivers on or before June 19th. I've waited 2yrs for a new phone...I can wait a few hours for it to ship to my house.
Is this a marketing ploy to limit supplies on the first day to ensure it sells out? Just to ship more stock in a few days later...
Considering that these iPhones are made in Asia and shipping takes weeks (by sea at least) to get them to the US / Europe / Australia etc., they are probably already in warehouses in the relevant regions.
It makes positive headlines if it does "sell out" but even bigger negative ones if it doesn't!
What are up-graders doing with their old 3g iPhones? Is there a place to buy a used one that can guaranty it's not stolen? We want to replace one on ours that was stolen.
I'm not worried about the launch this year. Last year was a disaster, in part, because they launched iPhone OS 2.0 at the same time. As a result, a lot of the installed base was upgrading the firmware, which required re-activation.
This year, the firmware comes out 2 days early (thanks to the WWDC and torrents, it's been installed by quite a number already). In addition to just being better prepared this year as a routine, many of the iPhones are being sent out via pre-order...and many iPhones will be sent to far more locations than last year.
All the pre-order iPhones will have the first stage of activation already completed, so it will just be the second stage that will need to be completed.
Furthermore, we're going to see many more people upgrading this year rather than first time buyers on day one. These people already have their AT&T accounts, iTunes, and everything else ready to go.
As far as AT&T carrier service goes...
If you get a 3G S, and live in certain areas, you're going to see an improvement. Contrary to what people think, AT&T has been rapidly improving their service capabilities around the country and are aggressively continuing to do so. So while this launch may result in a little bit of a setback in some areas, overall AT&T is getting its act together.
What are up-graders doing with their old 3g iPhones? Is there a place to buy a used one that can guaranty it's not stolen? We want to replace one on ours that was stolen.
In the UK there are several companies that will buy your old phone for about £200 - just google "mobile recycling". That will cover most of the initial cost of upgrading!
Is this a marketing ploy to limit supplies on the first day to ensure it sells out? Just to ship more stock in a few days later...
Considering that these iPhones are made in Asia and shipping takes weeks (by sea at least) to get them to the US / Europe / Australia etc., they are probably already in warehouses in the relevant regions.
It makes positive headlines if it does "sell out" but even bigger negative ones if it doesn't!
No they really sell a ton of these. It may take weeks for the lines to cease.
No they really sell a ton of these. It may take weeks for the lines to cease.
It's not a marketing ploy. They put in an order to their Chinese factory for the number they want, and then reorder as needed. It doesn't take weeks to ship -- they fly them FedEx overnight as they get them. Last year, there was a big story in the news when one of the shipments carrying Apple things on FedEx crashed in Asia resulting in no stock for some stores on the east coast.
Apple Stores MUCH prefer you to go buy them in the Apple store, not at ATT -- they can't say that, but they can make it happen by making sure THEY have the stock and that ATT gets minimal stock. The entire idea is to get you to cross-purchase other Apple goods while you are in the store.
Many many people went and bought Macs and Macbooks after their positive experiences with the iPhone they purchased.
It's not a marketing ploy. They put in an order to their Chinese factory for the number they want, and then reorder as needed. It doesn't take weeks to ship -- they fly them FedEx overnight as they get them. Last year, there was a big story in the news when one of the shipments carrying Apple things on FedEx crashed in Asia resulting in no stock for some stores on the east coast.
Apple Stores MUCH prefer you to go buy them in the Apple store, not at ATT -- they can't say that, but they can make it happen by making sure THEY have the stock and that ATT gets minimal stock. The entire idea is to get you to cross-purchase other Apple goods while you are in the store.
Many many people went and bought Macs and Macbooks after their positive experiences with the iPhone they purchased.
Your answer shows no logic in the least.
Why would Apple make sure ANY supplier runs out of phones? The good majority of the US and for that matter the world don't have an Apple store close to them.
Would Apple also hold stock out for BestBuy and Walmart for the same reason?
It can just as easily be Apple & AT&T putting out rumors of shortages to make it more enticing to order early.
You don't have any press release to back up your claims and neither do I. So either one of us could be right.
"Rumors of shortages" are just as likely to discourage people from even trying to purchase an iPhone, assuming that vendors will either be sold out or that there will be lines, so I can't see where it's really to Apple's advantage to plant such stories.
I think it's safe to assume that the iPhone is well past the "build excitement with artificial scarcity" phase of its development (if in fact that was ever in play) and that Apple would just as soon have as many handsets as possible at launch, since they'll be able to sell them all. Sell more = good.
They have chosen to defer revenue recognition for the iphone, so they will recognize revenues each quarter no matter when the phones are sold.
That said, any educated investor pretty much ignores GAAP. The first thing you do with GAAP financials is back out the non cash charges and add in the cash items that are deferred. The most important figure is Free Cash Flow, and that IS influenced by when a sale is made, or more accurately, whenever AT&T and the other carries make the subsidized payments. At that point Apple has the money to spend, invest, or payout as a dividend, even if the revenue will not be booked under GAAP for another two years. There is an old saying that you can spend cash but you can not spend net income.
Can you post the cash flow earnings from last quarter, and cash flow estimates going forward assuming flat sales? I am wondering what the real PE of Apple is = (Market Cap - Cash at hand)/(Rea; earnings based on cash flow - interest on the cash that Apple has on the average). I tried to do this and it came to a ridiculous low of 11.
"Rumors of shortages" are just as likely to discourage people from even trying to purchase an iPhone, assuming that vendors will either be sold out or that there will be lines, so I can't see where it's really to Apple's advantage to plant such stories.
I think it's safe to assume that the iPhone is well past the "build excitement with artificial scarcity" phase of its development (if in fact that was ever in play) and that Apple would just as soon have as many handsets as possible at launch, since they'll be able to sell them all. Sell more = good.
You have nothing but speculation to back up your claim and neither do I so at this point my theory is just as logical as yours.
Apple & AT&T do need to do some damage recovery after the outrage by current 3G iPhone owners.
It's not a marketing ploy. They put in an order to their Chinese factory for the number they want, and then reorder as needed. It doesn't take weeks to ship -- they fly them FedEx overnight as they get them. Last year, there was a big story in the news when one of the shipments carrying Apple things on FedEx crashed in Asia resulting in no stock for some stores on the east coast.
Apple Stores MUCH prefer you to go buy them in the Apple store, not at ATT -- they can't say that, but they can make it happen by making sure THEY have the stock and that ATT gets minimal stock. The entire idea is to get you to cross-purchase other Apple goods while you are in the store.
Many many people went and bought Macs and Macbooks after their positive experiences with the iPhone they purchased.
Is this a marketing ploy to limit supplies on the first day to ensure it sells out? Just to ship more stock in a few days later...
Considering that these iPhones are made in Asia and shipping takes weeks (by sea at least) to get them to the US / Europe / Australia etc., they are probably already in warehouses in the relevant regions.
It makes positive headlines if it does "sell out" but even bigger negative ones if it doesn't!
It's doubtful. Unlike Palm and Sprint, Apple and AT&T have nothing to prove at this point. If they run out, it's because more people have decided to get one than was expected.
Anyone else get this letter? I hope I get it Friday.
If it?s anything like last year you?ll be able to track it from when it gets logged into the mail system in China. Kinda cool to see how fast a package can get to you from so far away.
It's doubtful. Unlike Palm and Sprint, Apple and AT&T have nothing to prove at this point. If they run out, it's because more people have decided to get one than was expected.
Apple & AT&T have very much to prove, especially now.
CNet ran a video review last week. "Face it the iPhone Sucks". The video review pointed the finger at AT&T and Apple for a poor network in many large cities and has recommended people to wait for the iPhone to go to Verizon.
I know not as many people read CNet as AppleInsider so their public thrashing probably didn't have any impact on those that are considering either making a new purchase or upgrading.
There has been a very high number articles written on the poor upgrade path (Yes they signed a contract but Apple Users feel that they deserve better than a contract).
Apple & AT&T has very much to prove to all but the very Apple Faithful.
You can buy a touch screen at 7-11 these days and their are many very good multi tasking touch phones with great Android and HTC OS's, you clearly see the Pre as the only competitor to Apple.
The market has changed in a year and last I saw, BlackBerry had the number 1,3 & 5 spot. 25% of BlackBerry new contracts are consumer based not business related.
I'd say it's not the same slam dunk as last year and both the phone and OS are minor updates given the curent market.
Comments
I pre-ordered my 3G S from Apple.com for pickup at my local store the day of launch. So as long as I get there by 8 AM and have my pre-order print-out, I should be OK, right?
Yes. In reality -- Apple stores get THOUSANDS of iPhones in stock on launch day -- provided something doesn't go wrong with shipping -- and they will take care of all pre-orders first. They will also have regular phones ready to go at 10:00...That doesn't mean that by 11:00 both sets of stock aren't sold out -- but if you go when the store starts their pre-order sales, you will be good to go.
As to waiting in line -- Apple has a notoriously dedicated fanbase who will do that for iPhones or the launches of new macbooks too -- there was a line at my local Apple Store when their Macbook Airs first came in -- and they sold them all in an hour.
I haven't seen that kind of dedication to any other computer company. Iphone = Apple = fanbase. Pre = Sprint? = who cares.
You can bet that the iPHone 3G S launch will be just as big as their other launches have been,
As to the Broadband question -- how many of the iPhone 3G S phones do you think are going to be new activiations on top their exisiting user base -- and how many are iPhone and iPhone 3G users that are upgrading or trading up....I will bet that's the larger number.
Last year in line at the Apple Store in Ann Arbor, MI, not one single person among the people I was standing with in line was getting a new activation -- all of them were upgrading from their original iPHones from the year before, and even used their iPhones to read the updates on the stock for the store on-line as the supplies started to dwindle.
That is fan dedication. And that is the disposable income market that Apple has long gone after.
I'm not worried about the launch this year. Last year was a disaster, in part, because they launched iPhone OS 2.0 at the same time. As a result, a lot of the installed base was upgrading the firmware, which required re-activation.
This year, the firmware comes out 2 days early (thanks to the WWDC and torrents, it's been installed by quite a number already). In addition to just being better prepared this year as a routine, many of the iPhones are being sent out via pre-order...and many iPhones will be sent to far more locations than last year.
Good points, but I recall a lot of people with AT&T accounts moving to the iPhone 3G having to wait longer than new accounts for activation.
I also hope that the GM build they released on Monday is not the finale build set for next week. While it?s much more stable than the v2.0 they released last year, there are still some stability issues that weren?t present with the last 9 months on v2.0 builds. Still, it?s pretty damn good and will be the most stable build for an iPhone release to date.
Yes. In reality -- Apple stores get THOUSANDS of iPhones in stock on launch day -- provided something doesn't go wrong with shipping -- and they will take care of all pre-orders first. They will also have regular phones ready to go at 10:00...That doesn't mean that by 11:00 both sets of stock aren't sold out -- but if you go when the store starts their pre-order sales, you will be good to go.
As to waiting in line -- Apple has a notoriously dedicated fanbase who will do that for iPhones or the launches of new macbooks too -- there was a line at my local Apple Store when their Macbook Airs first came in -- and they sold them all in an hour.
I haven't seen that kind of dedication to any other computer company. Iphone = Apple = fanbase. Pre = Sprint? = who cares.
You can bet that the iPHone 3G S launch will be just as big as their other launches have been,
As to the Broadband question -- how many of the iPhone 3G S phones do you think are going to be new activiations on top their exisiting user base -- and how many are iPhone and iPhone 3G users that are upgrading or trading up....I will bet that's the larger number.
Last year in line at the Apple Store in Ann Arbor, MI, not one single person among the people I was standing with in line was getting a new activation -- all of them were upgrading from their original iPHones from the year before, and even used their iPhones to read the updates on the stock for the store on-line as the supplies started to dwindle.
That is fan dedication. And that is the disposable income market that Apple has long gone after.
Great post.
while your in line you can print out a copy this review, I found over at MS central mag.
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2348490,00.asp
Its A good read and a good time to buy a mac.
Good luck on iphone day.
9
Considering that these iPhones are made in Asia and shipping takes weeks (by sea at least) to get them to the US / Europe / Australia etc., they are probably already in warehouses in the relevant regions.
It makes positive headlines if it does "sell out" but even bigger negative ones if it doesn't!
I'm not worried about the launch this year. Last year was a disaster, in part, because they launched iPhone OS 2.0 at the same time. As a result, a lot of the installed base was upgrading the firmware, which required re-activation.
This year, the firmware comes out 2 days early (thanks to the WWDC and torrents, it's been installed by quite a number already). In addition to just being better prepared this year as a routine, many of the iPhones are being sent out via pre-order...and many iPhones will be sent to far more locations than last year.
All the pre-order iPhones will have the first stage of activation already completed, so it will just be the second stage that will need to be completed.
Furthermore, we're going to see many more people upgrading this year rather than first time buyers on day one. These people already have their AT&T accounts, iTunes, and everything else ready to go.
As far as AT&T carrier service goes...
If you get a 3G S, and live in certain areas, you're going to see an improvement. Contrary to what people think, AT&T has been rapidly improving their service capabilities around the country and are aggressively continuing to do so. So while this launch may result in a little bit of a setback in some areas, overall AT&T is getting its act together.
Are you Yolanda: ?
What are up-graders doing with their old 3g iPhones? Is there a place to buy a used one that can guaranty it's not stolen? We want to replace one on ours that was stolen.
In the UK there are several companies that will buy your old phone for about £200 - just google "mobile recycling". That will cover most of the initial cost of upgrading!
Is this a marketing ploy to limit supplies on the first day to ensure it sells out? Just to ship more stock in a few days later...
Considering that these iPhones are made in Asia and shipping takes weeks (by sea at least) to get them to the US / Europe / Australia etc., they are probably already in warehouses in the relevant regions.
It makes positive headlines if it does "sell out" but even bigger negative ones if it doesn't!
No they really sell a ton of these. It may take weeks for the lines to cease.
No they really sell a ton of these. It may take weeks for the lines to cease.
It's not a marketing ploy. They put in an order to their Chinese factory for the number they want, and then reorder as needed. It doesn't take weeks to ship -- they fly them FedEx overnight as they get them. Last year, there was a big story in the news when one of the shipments carrying Apple things on FedEx crashed in Asia resulting in no stock for some stores on the east coast.
Apple Stores MUCH prefer you to go buy them in the Apple store, not at ATT -- they can't say that, but they can make it happen by making sure THEY have the stock and that ATT gets minimal stock. The entire idea is to get you to cross-purchase other Apple goods while you are in the store.
Many many people went and bought Macs and Macbooks after their positive experiences with the iPhone they purchased.
It's not a marketing ploy. They put in an order to their Chinese factory for the number they want, and then reorder as needed. It doesn't take weeks to ship -- they fly them FedEx overnight as they get them. Last year, there was a big story in the news when one of the shipments carrying Apple things on FedEx crashed in Asia resulting in no stock for some stores on the east coast.
Apple Stores MUCH prefer you to go buy them in the Apple store, not at ATT -- they can't say that, but they can make it happen by making sure THEY have the stock and that ATT gets minimal stock. The entire idea is to get you to cross-purchase other Apple goods while you are in the store.
Many many people went and bought Macs and Macbooks after their positive experiences with the iPhone they purchased.
Your answer shows no logic in the least.
Why would Apple make sure ANY supplier runs out of phones? The good majority of the US and for that matter the world don't have an Apple store close to them.
Would Apple also hold stock out for BestBuy and Walmart for the same reason?
It can just as easily be Apple & AT&T putting out rumors of shortages to make it more enticing to order early.
You don't have any press release to back up your claims and neither do I. So either one of us could be right.
I think it's safe to assume that the iPhone is well past the "build excitement with artificial scarcity" phase of its development (if in fact that was ever in play) and that Apple would just as soon have as many handsets as possible at launch, since they'll be able to sell them all. Sell more = good.
They have chosen to defer revenue recognition for the iphone, so they will recognize revenues each quarter no matter when the phones are sold.
That said, any educated investor pretty much ignores GAAP. The first thing you do with GAAP financials is back out the non cash charges and add in the cash items that are deferred. The most important figure is Free Cash Flow, and that IS influenced by when a sale is made, or more accurately, whenever AT&T and the other carries make the subsidized payments. At that point Apple has the money to spend, invest, or payout as a dividend, even if the revenue will not be booked under GAAP for another two years. There is an old saying that you can spend cash but you can not spend net income.
Can you post the cash flow earnings from last quarter, and cash flow estimates going forward assuming flat sales? I am wondering what the real PE of Apple is = (Market Cap - Cash at hand)/(Rea; earnings based on cash flow - interest on the cash that Apple has on the average). I tried to do this and it came to a ridiculous low of 11.
TIA
"Rumors of shortages" are just as likely to discourage people from even trying to purchase an iPhone, assuming that vendors will either be sold out or that there will be lines, so I can't see where it's really to Apple's advantage to plant such stories.
I think it's safe to assume that the iPhone is well past the "build excitement with artificial scarcity" phase of its development (if in fact that was ever in play) and that Apple would just as soon have as many handsets as possible at launch, since they'll be able to sell them all. Sell more = good.
You have nothing but speculation to back up your claim and neither do I so at this point my theory is just as logical as yours.
Apple & AT&T do need to do some damage recovery after the outrage by current 3G iPhone owners.
Just speculation on a rumor site.
It's not a marketing ploy. They put in an order to their Chinese factory for the number they want, and then reorder as needed. It doesn't take weeks to ship -- they fly them FedEx overnight as they get them. Last year, there was a big story in the news when one of the shipments carrying Apple things on FedEx crashed in Asia resulting in no stock for some stores on the east coast.
Apple Stores MUCH prefer you to go buy them in the Apple store, not at ATT -- they can't say that, but they can make it happen by making sure THEY have the stock and that ATT gets minimal stock. The entire idea is to get you to cross-purchase other Apple goods while you are in the store.
Many many people went and bought Macs and Macbooks after their positive experiences with the iPhone they purchased.
Agreed
Is this a marketing ploy to limit supplies on the first day to ensure it sells out? Just to ship more stock in a few days later...
Considering that these iPhones are made in Asia and shipping takes weeks (by sea at least) to get them to the US / Europe / Australia etc., they are probably already in warehouses in the relevant regions.
It makes positive headlines if it does "sell out" but even bigger negative ones if it doesn't!
It's doubtful. Unlike Palm and Sprint, Apple and AT&T have nothing to prove at this point. If they run out, it's because more people have decided to get one than was expected.
To Our Valued Apple Customer:
Thank you for your recent iPhone 3G S purchase at the Apple Online Store.
Due to a technical error, we communicated an incorrect delivery date.
We want to assure you that your iPhone 3G S will deliver on June 19th. You can
track the status of your order at <www.apple.com/orderstatus>.
We appreciate your business, and apologize for any inconvenience.
Sincerely,
Apple Online Store Team
www.apple.com/store
Anyone else get this letter? I hope I get it Friday.
If it?s anything like last year you?ll be able to track it from when it gets logged into the mail system in China. Kinda cool to see how fast a package can get to you from so far away.
Delete your browser History often as a web CSS exploit can read it. No Javascript required.
See here: (site may be overloaded.)
http://www.making-the-web.com/misc/sites-you-visit/
Back to topic.
It's doubtful. Unlike Palm and Sprint, Apple and AT&T have nothing to prove at this point. If they run out, it's because more people have decided to get one than was expected.
Apple & AT&T have very much to prove, especially now.
CNet ran a video review last week. "Face it the iPhone Sucks". The video review pointed the finger at AT&T and Apple for a poor network in many large cities and has recommended people to wait for the iPhone to go to Verizon.
Link, http://cnettv.cnet.com/face-iphone-s...-50072059.html
I know not as many people read CNet as AppleInsider so their public thrashing probably didn't have any impact on those that are considering either making a new purchase or upgrading.
There has been a very high number articles written on the poor upgrade path (Yes they signed a contract but Apple Users feel that they deserve better than a contract).
Apple & AT&T has very much to prove to all but the very Apple Faithful.
You can buy a touch screen at 7-11 these days and their are many very good multi tasking touch phones with great Android and HTC OS's, you clearly see the Pre as the only competitor to Apple.
The market has changed in a year and last I saw, BlackBerry had the number 1,3 & 5 spot. 25% of BlackBerry new contracts are consumer based not business related.
I'd say it's not the same slam dunk as last year and both the phone and OS are minor updates given the curent market.