30K/week + PS3 sales of 110K/week = 140K/week. Once you count the run up to Christmas, this amounts to probably 10 million units a year. Not a niche market.
30K units was both HD-DVD & Blu-Ray together with 50/50 split during the holidays.
Unfortunately, the PS3 averages about 45k units/week in the US market and this includes the holiday sales. Even considering all PS3 purchases as a Blu-Ray standalone isn't good enough, yet.
Still a niche. I hope this changes soon for the sake of HDM as a whole, but reality is that the US economy isn't favoring the luxury enthsiasts hobby in the HDM area.
Um ... there's inflation, but no real recession. The US is poised to soon become the dominant leader in "green" technology, which isn't surprising because it's the dominant leader in pretty much every other form of technology. High-tech investing is going nuts right now -- supposedly, more nuts than it was during the dot-com era, and you aren't even aware of it.
This, of course, has nothing to do with blu-ray or HD-DVD, but I figured I'd make the statement anyway.
I've bumped this from the first page, I think it was posted 12/20/07, to see if Splinemodel would like to mody of his post in light of the recent antics of the stock market. Maybe it's not the r word we should be thinking about but instead the d word?
Anyway, who knows how this will affect consumer spending and the wider adoption of HDM. Although maybe consumers will take whatever economic stimulus payment they receive and rush right out and buy an HDTV and HDM player. If they do, I hope they don't sucked into the low priced players of a failing format only to become soured on HDM when the awful realization sinks in, a drying up media market.
MP3 Players are portable and thus functional with you feeling you 'own' your files. We accept a degraded audio track to save space and money.
DVD and especially HD video doesn't save space nor do we want a degraded copy. We also aren't walking/jogging [exercising in general], driving in our cars and more watching movies and maintaining our awareness of our surroundings.
Movies aren't an on-the-go industry.
On demand content will always have a market. It won't surpass the market of collecting movies/tv series shows in HD Format.
People will most certainly download to the AppleTV and buy a rental session to watch a movie.
The movies they love will see them going and purchasing a BD hardcopy for their collection.
It's done today in both the audio and video markets.
Most people still rip their music to their iPod. They aren't buying ten thousand songs off of the iTunes store.
Movies are an on-the-go industry now. Travellers watch movies while they're on the road, children watch in cars, groups get together to watch DVDs at one person's house.
'Collecting' movies is a niche, albeit not a very small one. Most people watch a movie just once.
Also, the new download services will introduce new features over time that allow people to watch a purchased movie more than once. When that happens, your 'movie collection' will move entirely to your server and will be accessed from an interface like Delicious Library's.
That we once needed to have movies kept on plastic frisbees will seem quaint.
I know what average means, but your point is unclear. I stand by my previous estimate (probable under-estimate, actually) of 10 million blu-ray players sold in 2008, do you want me to go back and find out how many were sold in 2007? If so, what purpose would that serve?
I know what average means, but your point is unclear. I stand by my previous estimate (probable under-estimate, actually) of 10 million blu-ray players sold in 2008, do you want me to go back and find out how many were sold in 2007? If so, what purpose would that serve?
no need. I was point out that about 45k units/week is the average in the US market for the whole 2007, which includes the holidays.
this is a poor sales # as a gaming console compare to rest of the competing products, but considering PS3 purchases as BD standalone player in the ratio of (3/10, 2/10, or 1/10) become even smaller number.
Anway you put it, the HDM is still a niche market now and will remain niche considering the US economy forecast for the rest of 2008.
no need. I was point out that about 45k units/week is the average in the US market for the whole 2007, which includes the holidays.
this is a poor sales # as a gaming console compare to rest of the competing products, but considering PS3 purchases as BD standalone player in the ratio of (3/10, 2/10, or 1/10) become even smaller number.
Anway you put it, the HDM is still a niche market now and will remain niche considering the US economy forecast for the rest of 2008.
For fuck sakes now your bringing the economy into it? Give it up the thread should be closed.
For fuck sakes now your bringing the economy into it? Give it up the thread should be closed.
Okay, buddy....
Perhaps, I should copy and paste Sony brochures and all the quotes from Bill Hunt, then claim Blu-Ray(or the entire HDM as a whole) is not a niche product?
Movies are an on-the-go industry now. Travellers watch movies while they're on the road, children watch in cars, groups get together to watch DVDs at one person's house.
'Collecting' movies is a niche, albeit not a very small one. Most people watch a movie just once.
Also, the new download services will introduce new features over time that allow people to watch a purchased movie more than once. When that happens, your 'movie collection' will move entirely to your server and will be accessed from an interface like Delicious Library's.
That we once needed to have movies kept on plastic frisbees will seem quaint.
What country are you from? Oh. CANADA.
Do you have Costco in CANADA?
Everyone I know collects DVDs. Costco has them dirt cheap. WalMart has them dirt cheap.
Everyone I know collects DVDs. Costco has them dirt cheap. WalMart has them dirt cheap.
They sell in the hundreds of millions.
I live in the US, and I tend to agree with Frank. Most people I know used to buy DVDs a lot. These same people would watch a movie once (if at all) and then it sits there on a shelf. I was the same way. Ya I have all the LOTRs (plus all the extended editions), all the Star Wars, etc but I have watched all those DVDs a total of 0 times. Sure, there is the occasional time I will pop something in, but 9 times out of 10 I don't enjoy watching something I've already seen. Looking back, i've probably wasted hundreds of dollars on DVDs. Now I'm part of the Netflix/blockbuster generation of rentals. I'm constantly getting something new (watching 4-8 movies a month), and it costs me less than it would to buy a single new release DVD! Most of my friends have moved to this format as well.
Just like CD sales are declining (due in part to piracy and legal online distribution), DVD (and HDM) sales will also start declining due to Netflix/Blockbuster/Xbox Live/Apple. Is there really a need to own the movie if you are only going to watch it once?
And seriously, if you can't place the line instantly you shouldn't be in a thread about movie formats.
Hmm, you may be onto something there. They could institute a short test for all members and those who fail wouldn't be allowed posting privileges. It would help cut down on the cellphone spammers quite a bit for certain.
I live in the US, and I tend to agree with Frank. Most people I know used to buy DVDs a lot. These same people would watch a movie once (if at all) and then it sits there on a shelf. I was the same way. Ya I have all the LOTRs (plus all the extended editions), all the Star Wars, etc but I have watched all those DVDs a total of 0 times. Sure, there is the occasional time I will pop something in, but 9 times out of 10 I don't enjoy watching something I've already seen. Looking back, i've probably wasted hundreds of dollars on DVDs. Now I'm part of the Netflix/blockbuster generation of rentals. I'm constantly getting something new (watching 4-8 movies a month), and it costs me less than it would to buy a single new release DVD! Most of my friends have moved to this format as well.
Just like CD sales are declining (due in part to piracy and legal online distribution), DVD (and HDM) sales will also start declining due to Netflix/Blockbuster/Xbox Live/Apple. Is there really a need to own the movie if you are only going to watch it once?
Digital will eventually take over. Give it 5 years.
Everyone I know collects DVDs. Costco has them dirt cheap. WalMart has them dirt cheap.
They sell in the hundreds of millions.
I just bought Superman Returns from Costco myself. I missed it when it released in theatres, and the $8.99 I paid for the DVD is much cheaper than actually going to watch it on the big screen.
But that's exactly my point. It's an impulse buy for me. While everyone you know is 'buying" DVDs, most of the people aren't "collecting" them. They see a cheap entertainment buy-in and then they pull the trigger and invite a couple friends over to watch.
That's exactly the kind of impulse buyer Jobs is going after with the Apple TV.
If it's important to you to have all the Christopher Reeve Superman films (I should say 'both' since none exist after Superman II ) plus the Director's Cut of the first film and the new reboot flick with Brandon Routh, then yes - you'll buy Blu-Ray. But that's not most people.
If it's $8.99 and you keep the disc forever, they'll buy. But the whole reason studios went to HDM is to push up prices and make people buy the same media all over again.
Comments
30K/week + PS3 sales of 110K/week = 140K/week. Once you count the run up to Christmas, this amounts to probably 10 million units a year. Not a niche market.
30K units was both HD-DVD & Blu-Ray together with 50/50 split during the holidays.
Unfortunately, the PS3 averages about 45k units/week in the US market and this includes the holiday sales. Even considering all PS3 purchases as a Blu-Ray standalone isn't good enough, yet.
Still a niche. I hope this changes soon for the sake of HDM as a whole, but reality is that the US economy isn't favoring the luxury enthsiasts hobby in the HDM area.
So, who knows. Of course, it's standard business practice to deny any potential price cut until it's actually officially announced.
Unfortunately, the PS3 averages about 45k units/week in the US market and this includes the holiday sales.
usa sales = 47k/week
worldwide sales = 110k/week
And that was last week, not holiday sales
www.vgchartz.com
usa sales = 47k/week
worldwide sales = 110k/week
And that was last week, not holiday sales
www.vgchartz.com
now calculate the average for the year 2007.
now calculate the average for the year 2007.
Do you want to re-phrase that into something that makes sense?
Um ... there's inflation, but no real recession. The US is poised to soon become the dominant leader in "green" technology, which isn't surprising because it's the dominant leader in pretty much every other form of technology. High-tech investing is going nuts right now -- supposedly, more nuts than it was during the dot-com era, and you aren't even aware of it.
This, of course, has nothing to do with blu-ray or HD-DVD, but I figured I'd make the statement anyway.
I've bumped this from the first page, I think it was posted 12/20/07, to see if Splinemodel would like to mody of his post in light of the recent antics of the stock market. Maybe it's not the r word we should be thinking about but instead the d word?
Anyway, who knows how this will affect consumer spending and the wider adoption of HDM. Although maybe consumers will take whatever economic stimulus payment they receive and rush right out and buy an HDTV and HDM player. If they do, I hope they don't sucked into the low priced players of a failing format only to become soured on HDM when the awful realization sinks in, a drying up media market.
Okay, I'll jump in.
Napster is a bad analogy.
MP3 Players are portable and thus functional with you feeling you 'own' your files. We accept a degraded audio track to save space and money.
DVD and especially HD video doesn't save space nor do we want a degraded copy. We also aren't walking/jogging [exercising in general], driving in our cars and more watching movies and maintaining our awareness of our surroundings.
Movies aren't an on-the-go industry.
On demand content will always have a market. It won't surpass the market of collecting movies/tv series shows in HD Format.
People will most certainly download to the AppleTV and buy a rental session to watch a movie.
The movies they love will see them going and purchasing a BD hardcopy for their collection.
It's done today in both the audio and video markets.
Most people still rip their music to their iPod. They aren't buying ten thousand songs off of the iTunes store.
Movies are an on-the-go industry now. Travellers watch movies while they're on the road, children watch in cars, groups get together to watch DVDs at one person's house.
'Collecting' movies is a niche, albeit not a very small one. Most people watch a movie just once.
Also, the new download services will introduce new features over time that allow people to watch a purchased movie more than once. When that happens, your 'movie collection' will move entirely to your server and will be accessed from an interface like Delicious Library's.
That we once needed to have movies kept on plastic frisbees will seem quaint.
Do you want to re-phrase that into something that makes sense?
don't know what average means?
don't know what average means?
I know what average means, but your point is unclear. I stand by my previous estimate (probable under-estimate, actually) of 10 million blu-ray players sold in 2008, do you want me to go back and find out how many were sold in 2007? If so, what purpose would that serve?
I know what average means, but your point is unclear. I stand by my previous estimate (probable under-estimate, actually) of 10 million blu-ray players sold in 2008, do you want me to go back and find out how many were sold in 2007? If so, what purpose would that serve?
no need. I was point out that about 45k units/week is the average in the US market for the whole 2007, which includes the holidays.
this is a poor sales # as a gaming console compare to rest of the competing products, but considering PS3 purchases as BD standalone player in the ratio of (3/10, 2/10, or 1/10) become even smaller number.
Anway you put it, the HDM is still a niche market now and will remain niche considering the US economy forecast for the rest of 2008.
no need. I was point out that about 45k units/week is the average in the US market for the whole 2007, which includes the holidays.
this is a poor sales # as a gaming console compare to rest of the competing products, but considering PS3 purchases as BD standalone player in the ratio of (3/10, 2/10, or 1/10) become even smaller number.
Anway you put it, the HDM is still a niche market now and will remain niche considering the US economy forecast for the rest of 2008.
For fuck sakes now your bringing the economy into it? Give it up the thread should be closed.
For fuck sakes now your bringing the economy into it? Give it up the thread should be closed.
Okay, buddy....
Perhaps, I should copy and paste Sony brochures and all the quotes from Bill Hunt, then claim Blu-Ray(or the entire HDM as a whole) is not a niche product?
Movies are an on-the-go industry now. Travellers watch movies while they're on the road, children watch in cars, groups get together to watch DVDs at one person's house.
'Collecting' movies is a niche, albeit not a very small one. Most people watch a movie just once.
Also, the new download services will introduce new features over time that allow people to watch a purchased movie more than once. When that happens, your 'movie collection' will move entirely to your server and will be accessed from an interface like Delicious Library's.
That we once needed to have movies kept on plastic frisbees will seem quaint.
What country are you from? Oh. CANADA.
Do you have Costco in CANADA?
Everyone I know collects DVDs. Costco has them dirt cheap. WalMart has them dirt cheap.
They sell in the hundreds of millions.
I really need an HDTV
How about this one...
http://blog.wired.com/gadgets/2008/0...08-mitsub.html
...looks awesome to me.
What country are you from? Oh. CANADA.
Do you have Costco in CANADA?
Everyone I know collects DVDs. Costco has them dirt cheap. WalMart has them dirt cheap.
They sell in the hundreds of millions.
I live in the US, and I tend to agree with Frank. Most people I know used to buy DVDs a lot. These same people would watch a movie once (if at all) and then it sits there on a shelf. I was the same way. Ya I have all the LOTRs (plus all the extended editions), all the Star Wars, etc but I have watched all those DVDs a total of 0 times. Sure, there is the occasional time I will pop something in, but 9 times out of 10 I don't enjoy watching something I've already seen. Looking back, i've probably wasted hundreds of dollars on DVDs. Now I'm part of the Netflix/blockbuster generation of rentals. I'm constantly getting something new (watching 4-8 movies a month), and it costs me less than it would to buy a single new release DVD! Most of my friends have moved to this format as well.
Just like CD sales are declining (due in part to piracy and legal online distribution), DVD (and HDM) sales will also start declining due to Netflix/Blockbuster/Xbox Live/Apple. Is there really a need to own the movie if you are only going to watch it once?
#1 - I think it is from Monty Python's search for the holy grail
#2 - he was being sarcastic
Thank you.
And seriously, if you can't place the line instantly you shouldn't be in a thread about movie formats.
Thank you.
And seriously, if you can't place the line instantly you shouldn't be in a thread about movie formats.
Hmm, you may be onto something there. They could institute a short test for all members and those who fail wouldn't be allowed posting privileges. It would help cut down on the cellphone spammers quite a bit for certain.
I live in the US, and I tend to agree with Frank. Most people I know used to buy DVDs a lot. These same people would watch a movie once (if at all) and then it sits there on a shelf. I was the same way. Ya I have all the LOTRs (plus all the extended editions), all the Star Wars, etc but I have watched all those DVDs a total of 0 times. Sure, there is the occasional time I will pop something in, but 9 times out of 10 I don't enjoy watching something I've already seen. Looking back, i've probably wasted hundreds of dollars on DVDs. Now I'm part of the Netflix/blockbuster generation of rentals. I'm constantly getting something new (watching 4-8 movies a month), and it costs me less than it would to buy a single new release DVD! Most of my friends have moved to this format as well.
Just like CD sales are declining (due in part to piracy and legal online distribution), DVD (and HDM) sales will also start declining due to Netflix/Blockbuster/Xbox Live/Apple. Is there really a need to own the movie if you are only going to watch it once?
Digital will eventually take over. Give it 5 years.
What country are you from? Oh. CANADA.
Do you have Costco in CANADA?
Everyone I know collects DVDs. Costco has them dirt cheap. WalMart has them dirt cheap.
They sell in the hundreds of millions.
I just bought Superman Returns from Costco myself. I missed it when it released in theatres, and the $8.99 I paid for the DVD is much cheaper than actually going to watch it on the big screen.
But that's exactly my point. It's an impulse buy for me. While everyone you know is 'buying" DVDs, most of the people aren't "collecting" them. They see a cheap entertainment buy-in and then they pull the trigger and invite a couple friends over to watch.
That's exactly the kind of impulse buyer Jobs is going after with the Apple TV.
If it's important to you to have all the Christopher Reeve Superman films (I should say 'both' since none exist after Superman II
If it's $8.99 and you keep the disc forever, they'll buy. But the whole reason studios went to HDM is to push up prices and make people buy the same media all over again.