Oh, Teno's not a bad guy at all, he's just overly dedicated to the Apple party line and very stubborn.
I am starting to see some cracks in his armor though... I think he's finally getting how critical the 3G refresh is, that maybe Apple really isn't doing well in Europe (duh), and that it IS worrisome that Apple is so far behind pace to meet their 10 million goal.
Sometimes it takes awhile to bring ppl around. Though I'm sure T will always at least sip the Kool-aid, he may stop chugging it.
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For sure, for sure. Teno is one of the better guys to discuss with here. JeffDM is pretty good as well.
Again this is TBaggins opinion. There is no evidence that this is the collective opinion of the mobile phone market at large.
Spoken like a US-centric cellphone customer.
Watch and learn, T. 3G is what's going to allow Apple to launch in Italy, Japan, and Korea. It's also what's going to set up the sales stampede on both sides of the pond come late June. There's really no overstating its importance.
For sure, for sure. Teno is one of the better guys to discuss with here. JeffDM is pretty good as well.
Jeff's good. Teno's kool-aid tendencies make him a good barometer of the Apple party line. Mel is great. Also like to read posts from Electric Monk, Aegis, and Solipism.
Watch and learn, T. 3G is what's going to allow Apple to launch in Italy, Japan, and Korea. It's also what's going to set up the sales stampede on both sides of the pond come late June. There's really no overstating its importance.
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Teno's lack of understanding of the importance of 3G is typical of those that have never surfed the net at 7.2 mb/sec on their phone. Or have made a VoIP or video conference call. This would include much of the iPhone community, and most of the US cellular market as well. The very lack of 3G was what caused Finland to give Stevie-Boy the old Foxtrot Oscar. If arguably the most sophisticate and tech savvy market, i.e. Finland is not hyped about the iPhone, there has to be something wrong with this picture. I have not checked the figures but the iPods are selling quite well here. The iPod Touch is a big seller, but when asked if they would like to have an iPhone, many say it is not really worth the money as it is crippled in many ways.
I could be wrong but I think MR. Baggins is talking about how you defended to the end that the iPhone is not selling in well in Europe and how the goal posts continue to be moved in your arguments.
How have I moved the goal posts?
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If you say so but from the posts I have read from you, you tend to tow the party line, but if you feels your views have been misrepresented, fair enough. You are given benefit of the doubt by me.
What exactly is the party line.
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I think my "moving the goal posts" argument is valid here. Some things are good or bad, black or white. In my opinion, the iPhone is a great iPod with phone, but a bad phone with iPod. I am in favor of Apple doing better than it did because it is not that hard to do.
I'm confused by this whole paragraph.
How have I moved the goal posts?
Some things are good and bad for you. But your opinion doesn't determine what is good or bad for everyone else.
You say you own an iPhone but then continue to call it an iPod with a phone. When the iPod is one of several applications shipped with the device. Its no more an iPod with a phone than any other phone that has media playing capabilities. Surveys have shown the iPod application is one of the least used on the iPhone.
If you wish to continue calling it an iPod with a phone please come up with some supporting evidence more than you own limited opinion.
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Really? Not commonly used? How do people check their emails, or surf, or use the various chatting applications? Ever here of Fring, iSkoot, Truphone? These all run over wifi or 3G. You might be misunderstanding when they say 3G as in video-calls, but no one ( my guess completely) is making the conscience effort to manually switch off 3G in favor of straight GSM/GPRS data calls. No way. As you said it is ubiquitous and most people have no idea how they are connecting. The setting are automatic the moment you stick the card in the phone.
I'm talking about the number of people who even have a 3G tariff. People have posted various reports about European 3G usage. European mobile phone usage is nearly 100%, of that number only about 34% of mobile phone users pay for a 3G tariff.
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Not sure I buy this. Can you post a link to this and how they arrived at this? I would be willing to bet that 3G phones are using as much data as EDGE networks. By the way, 3G settings are automatically input into the phone where as EDGE has to be manually entered or sent via the operator.
Apple's iPhone is driving "unheard of levels of mobile Internet usage," an O2 executive said Monday.
Matthew Key, who becomes chief executive of O2 Europe next month, told the Financial Times that 60 per cent of the company's iPhone customers in the UK were sending or receiving more than 25 megabytes of data a month, the equivalent of 7,500 e-mails without attachments or 25 YouTube videos. By comparison, less than 2 per cent of O2's other UK customers on monthly payment contracts use more than 25MB a month.
However, the O2 research found that customers who have Nokia's N95, the Finnish handset maker's nearest equivalent to the iPhone, which runs on 3G networks, access markedly less data compared with those using the Apple device.
iPhone browsing marketshare closes in on .1%, .09 percent may seem like an extremely small marketshare but when you consider that the iPhone has only been selling for 5 months and for most of that time was in one – albeit large – market (the U.S.), that share is amazing. Add another .01% for the iPod touch and Apple mobile platform is one out of every thousand pageviews across the Internet. Desktop platforms are starting to come into the iPhone's blast radius. Windows 95 has less than a quarter of the marketshare of the iPhone. And all of the Linux variants combined, just over five times (.57%) the market. Broken out over Red Hat, Novel, Ubuntu, etc, someone is losing to the iPhone right now. At this rate, the iPhone/iPod platform should be the third largest computing platform by the end of next year.
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Not sure what you mean here.
Consumers don't directly use 3G or EDGE. Consumer directly use software. The quality of the software more determines the usefulness of the data connection.
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Apple did make some money. Not as much as they could have if they had a product that Europeans would purchase without a second thought. The operators were going to get those subscriptions regardless. People want phones and connections.
Motorola has sold 27.4 million phones sold at $7.45 billion in revenue for a $194 million loss in profits. Motorola sold 16 times more phones at around 8 times more revenue than the iPhone.
The iPhone sold 1.7 million phones for 378 million in sales, $1.93 billion in total deferred revenue for $1.05 billion in total profit.
Its easy to say you can sell more phones. But selling more phones does not necessarily equate into more profit.
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Maybe not in the US, but those I have spoken to here in Europe see the iPhone as completely underwhelming in terms of what a biz user wants. They all agree that the media player aspect is without equal. Agreed, but Europeans are most so simplistic in terms of telephony. It takes more than a snazzy UI to impress.
O2 has reported to sell out of iPhones with the price decreases. That doesn't generally happen to a product that has failed in the market.
Motorola has sold 27.4 million phones sold at $7.45 billion in revenue for a $194 million loss in profits. Motorola sold 16 times more phones at around 8 times more revenue than the iPhone.
The iPhone sold 1.7 million phones for 378 million in sales, $1.93 billion in total deferred revenue for $1.05 billion in total profit.
Its easy to say you can sell more phones. But selling more phones does not necessarily equate into more profit.
While we all know that Motorola is a financial basketcase, you have a mis-understanding of the deferred revenue for the iphone.
Apple booked $5 million in iphone revenue in June quarter, and for the next 7 quarters it will continue to book $5 million per quarter.
Apple booked $123 million in iphone revenue for the Sept quarter --- but only $118 million came from Sept quarter sales ($5 million came from June quarter sales that were deferred).
5 + 118 = 123.
Apple booked $241 million in iphone revenue for the Dec quarter --- but only $118 million came from Dec quarter sales ($5 million + $118 million from previous quarters that were deferred).
5 + 118 + 118 = 241.
So for the March quarter --- it's $137 million for the March quarter sales (plus $5 million + $118 million + $118 million from previous quarters that were deferred).
5+ 118 + 118 + 137 = 378.
$1.93 billion deferred is for the whole 5.4 million iphones (minus March 6 - March 31 sales).
While we all know that Motorola is a financial basketcase, you have a mis-understanding of the deferred revenue for the iphone.
$1.93 billion deferred is for the whole 5.4 million iphones (minus March 6 - March 31 sales).
Yeah I know what the deferred revenue is about. Its deferred over 24 months. That is why I said Motorola made about 8 times more revenue than the iPhone for the quarter. I mention it because as much profit as Apple made this quarter that revenue will return even more profit that Apple did not see this quarter.
Yeah I know what the deferred revenue is about. Its deferred over 24 months. That is why I said Motorola made about 8 times more revenue than the iPhone for the quarter. I mention it because as much profit as Apple made this quarter that revenue will return even more profit that Apple did not see this quarter.
Actually it's worse than that --- handset revenue for Motorola is only $3.3 billion for the last quarter.
I'll leave all this for SapporoBaby, whom its addressed to. But a note to SP... Teno tends to play innocent when cornered, simply to draw out the debate and win by default when you get tired of pulling teeth with him. He also has a bad habit of insisting on evidence for every single point you make, though he doesn't seem to hold himself to the same rigor.
Not to say Teno is awful or anything... its pretty much just Internet Debating 101.
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I'm talking about the number of people who even have a 3G tariff. People have posted various reports about European 3G usage. European mobile phone usage is nearly 100%, of that number only about 34% of mobile phone users pay for a 3G tariff.
C'mon Teno. It's been pointed out to you many times that 1) 3G penetration in Europe is rising rapidly and 2) it's uneven, which means that some Euro nations, like Italy, have significantly higher 3G penetration rates than the continent as a whole. Which is part of why Apple's waiting for the 3G model before launching in Italy.
It's 2008. Why would you continue to try to downplay the importance of 3G, especially in Europe, which is further along in that regard than the US? Thankfully, Apple does not appear to share this view.
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Apple's iPhone is driving "unheard of levels of mobile Internet usage," an O2 executive said Monday.
...iPhone browsing marketshare closes in on .1%, .09 percent may seem like an extremely small marketshare but when you consider that the iPhone has only been selling for 5 months and for most of that time was in one – albeit large – market (the U.S.), that share is amazing.
...At this rate, the iPhone/iPod platform should be the third largest computing platform by the end of next year.
Shame on you Teno, we've been over this, and you know better by now.
Yes, the iPhone is being used a good amount as a mobile internet device, because the large touchscreen plus mobile Safari provides a good user experience. You point this out in an attempt to show that the iPhone doesn't really need 3G, because things are going well already.
But you know as well as I that those internet usage figures would EXPLODE with a 3G iPhone, as the user experience would then be improved a great deal further. Yes, the connection DOES matter, because its the piece of the puzzle that's missing... most especially in Europe, which doesn't even have slow EDGE for its 2.5G, but rather SUPER-slow, crappy GPRS (aka dialup speed), because many places in Europe didn't bother with EDGE, they went straight from GPRS to 3G. \
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Consumers don't directly use 3G or EDGE. Consumer directly use software. The quality of the software more determines the usefulness of the data connection.
Really? Let's try using iChat over EDGE or GPRS.
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Motorola has sold 27.4 million phones sold at $7.45 billion in revenue for a $194 million loss in profits. Motorola sold 16 times more phones at around 8 times more revenue than the iPhone.
The iPhone sold 1.7 million phones for 378 million in sales, $1.93 billion in total deferred revenue for $1.05 billion in total profit.
Its easy to say you can sell more phones. But selling more phones does not necessarily equate into more profit.
Samab's already addressed you here, so no need to expound further.
Btw, where do you get your iPhone profit numbers? I wasn't aware that Apple was breaking them out separately as of yet... are they "official", or are you guesstimating?
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O2 has reported to sell out of iPhones with the price decreases. That doesn't generally happen to a product that has failed in the market.
ANYONE can generate a short-term sales spike via a pricecut. Dell can do the same, does it mean that Dells are super-desirable cutting-edge products that everyone should buy? Nope. \
The true test is whether a price point re-set causes a significant increase in LONG-TERM demand. I think in Europe it will, but sufficiently only if its coupled with the timely release of a 3G model, with some of the other glaring feature deficits addressed as well.
The Euros are sophisticated cellphone buyers and have a lot of choices in the smartphone market, the iPhone needs to be strong across the board.
You know, what I don't get is this attitude that Apple made a huge blunder by not including a 3G radio in the iPhone from the start, and now that sophisticated European users are turning up their noses Apple has been humiliated and will be forced to come around.
All of that is just silly. Apple was very clear from the start: when they released the iPhone in America, a 2G radio was the better choice, because of battery life and coverage.
When 3G radios became efficient enough, they would add one.
Which is what is happening. I suppose Apple could have simply not sold the iPhone anywhere but America until they had a 3G model ready to go, but what would be the point of that?
What's with all the "bwa-ha-ha, the greedy arrogant Jobs has been brought low by the steely resolve of gimlet eyed continentals" crap? It just makes some of you seem sort of xenophobic.
And please, could we just dispense with the "fan boys bow down before their master" stuff? Cause it's kinda irritating.
You know, what I don't get is this attitude that Apple made a huge blunder by not including a 3G radio in the iPhone from the start
Meh... no 3G at launch didn't end up holding Apple back a lot in the US, but it has ended up being a mistake to launch with what is essentially the US 2.5G model in the more sophisticated and demanding European market. And it'd be a pretty huge disaster to launch with that in much of Asia (Japan, Korea), which is why they're not going to do that. Well, they're learning, in any case. Italy is pretty heavily 3G (for Europe) and Apple is going to wait until the 3G model to launch there, which is smart.
The rest of your post seems to be a tad emotional and perhaps reading some things in that either aren't there, or are only there for a few posters. I own Apple stock, and don't wish to see them "humbled"... it's better for my bottom line if they get it right the first time.
Unfortunately, no one bats a thousand, and even Stevie J makes mistakes. Which is okay, so long as he finally listens and corrects them in a timely manner, which is all I care about. If there's some sort of Euro Fanboi vs Jobs Fanboi war going on in the background, I honestly don't give a damn.
Meh... no 3G at launch didn't end up holding Apple back a lot in the US, but it has ended up being a mistake to launch with what is essentially the US 2.5G model in the more sophisticated and demanding European market. And it'd be a pretty huge disaster to launch with that in much of Asia (Japan, Korea), which is why they're not going to do that. Well, they're learning, in any case. Italy is pretty heavily 3G (for Europe) and Apple is going to wait until the 3G model to launch there, which is smart.
The rest of your post seems to be a tad emotional and perhaps reading some things in that either aren't there, or are only there for a few posters. I own Apple stock, and don't wish to see them "humbled"... it's better for my bottom line if they get it right the first time.
Unfortunately, no one bats a thousand, and even Stevie J makes mistakes. Which is okay, so long as he finally listens and corrects them in a timely manner, which is all I care about. If there's some sort of Euro Fanboi vs Jobs Fanboi war going on in the background, I honestly don't give a damn.
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OK, but I don't see how launching into the European market with the phone they had was a mistake, or how following that with the 3G phone that was planned all along is any kind of correction due to "learning."
I mean, I think the sophisticated European phone buyer can figure out that a 3G model is different from a 2G, yes? So it's not like the fact that a 2G iPhone has been on the market is going to depress sales of a 3G model because potential buyers will be saying "oh, the iPhone, I tried that and it sucked", right?
So they've sold some phones and developed some vendor relationships. All to the better when they release the 3G model.
What is the downside here, for Apple? Do Europeans hold grudges if vendors fail to meet their stringent requirements in every case? Will they eschew the 3G iPhone to punish Apple, for, I dunno, "arrogance"?
Apple is doing what it intended to do all along, clearly. All this drama about offending European sensibilities, or attributing all kinds of negative attributes to Apple because of their timing (greed, ignorance, arrogance, etc.) seems pretty goofy to me.
Now as far as relationships with carriers, and the pricing structure-- sure, Apple probably has to change it up, and it seems like they're willing to do that. But that's just business-- you put a plan into motion, gauge the results, modify if necessary.
No "Apple with its tail between its legs" necessary, just business.
OK, but I don't see how launching into the European market with the phone they had was a mistake
It was a mistake because Apple is the newbie on the block in the cellphone game, and they're going up against some very large and entrenched competition that's been around for decades, like Nokia. So Apple's first challenge is to be taken seriously. It's difficult to succeed in that challenge if your first product in a big market (Europe) doesn't do well and lacks many 'duh' features that your prospective customers expect and want in a high-end phone. The initial pricing didn't help either.
Put another way, say I'm some brand new Chinese auto maker that you've never heard of. I release a car into the US that's pretty good... except it doesn't have airbags or power steering, and is overpriced as well. It kinda bombs. Are you likely to take my next product super-seriously? Am I on your short list for your next auto purchase? Do I displace long-time established, entrenched makes like Honda, Toyota, and GM in you, the consumer's, mind? No, no, and no.
Remember, there's barely a six month gap between the Euro launch of the 2.5G iPhone, and what is looking to be the (June) Euro launch of the 3G iPhone. Why hurt your brand and your rep just to rush a 2.5G phone into a market where it's not going to sell well anyway? \
And, no, I don't think this was according to Apple's plan, i.e. Apple didn't do this KNOWING the 2.5G iPhone would underwhelm in Europe, and figure, "Meh, it's okay, we'll kick ass with the 3G model anyway."
Apple knows all about brand, public perception, marketing... they're masters of it. Frankly, they got caught by surprise... they honestly thought that the 2.5G model would still do pretty well in the European market, even with a feature set that was questionable by Euro standards, and even at the (high) prices they were trying to charge.
It was a miscalculation, and they are adapting, but I'm sure if they had a chance to do it over, they would've changed a lot of things about the European launch, including very likely the timeframe.
On the bright side, the US launch went well, and the Asian launch should as well, as that will be a 3G model, which is pretty much required these days by the Japanese and Korean markets. So, two out of three ain't bad. But I think Europe is an uphill battle, with the 3G iPhone fighting for respect every step of the way. Aggressive pricing will help.
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No "Apple with its tail between its legs" necessary, just business.
I don't care where Steve's tail is, so long as his ears are open.
It was a mistake because Apple is the newbie on the block in the cellphone game, and they're going up against some very large and entrenched competition that's been around for decades, like Nokia. So Apple's first challenge is to be taken seriously. It's difficult to succeed in that challenge if your first product in a big market (Europe) doesn't do well and lacks many 'duh' features that your prospective customers expect and want in a high-end phone. The initial pricing didn't help either.
Put another way, say I'm some brand new Chinese auto maker that you've never heard of. I release a car into the US that's pretty good... except it doesn't have airbags or power steering, and is overpriced as well. It kinda bombs. Are you likely to take my next product super-seriously? Am I on your short list for your next auto purchase? Do I displace long-time established, entrenched makes like Honda, Toyota, and GM in you, the consumer's, mind? No, no, and no.
Remember, there's barely a six month gap between the Euro launch of the 2.5G iPhone, and what is looking to be the (June) Euro launch of the 3G iPhone. Why hurt your brand and your rep just to rush a 2.5G phone into a market where it's not going to sell well anyway? \
And, no, I don't think this was according to Apple's plan, i.e. Apple didn't do this KNOWING the 2.5G iPhone would underwhelm in Europe, and figure, "Meh, it's okay, we'll kick ass with the 3G model anyway."
Apple knows all about brand, public perception, marketing... they're masters of it. Frankly, they got caught by surprise... they honestly thought that the 2.5G model would still do pretty well in the European market, even with a feature set that was questionable by Euro standards, and even at the (high) prices they were trying to charge.
It was a miscalculation, and they are adapting, but I'm sure if they had a chance to do it over, they would've changed a lot of things about the European launch, including very likely the timeframe.
On the bright side, the US launch went well, and the Asian launch should as well, as that will be a 3G model, which is pretty much required these days by the Japanese and Korean markets. So, two out of three ain't bad. But I think Europe is an uphill battle, with the 3G iPhone fighting for respect every step of the way. Aggressive pricing will help.
I don't think the car analogy works that well. The worst thing you can do is introduce a product with poor quality. Hyundi and others made that mistake, and it takes a long time to change the perception that your products are shoddy.
That's a very different proposition from "limited feature set." The analogy here would be if a Chinese manufacture introduced a very well made, very reliable, extremely fun to drive and great handling car into the American market, but only offered it as two door sedan, and left out a few things (iPod integration on the stereo, say, or traction control) that many cars in its price class habitually featured. Also, because gas mileage is a priority for this manufacturer, it is only offered with a relatively low power engine.
Some buyers find the driving experience and general quality to be uniquely satisfying enough as to override concerns about features. Others do not.
Then, our hypothetical Chinese company follows up with a more fully featured cross-over vehicle, and advances in technology mean they can offer a more powerful motor with similar mileage. The new model appears to address buyers reluctance to forgo features, while still retaining its well deserved reputation for quality and enjoyment.
So, again, I don't see how "really well made, full efficient, high quality, fun to drive and great handling, missing some features that a lot of buyers in this market want" translates into "now we will never take this manufacturer seriously again and not even bother to check out their newest stuff."
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I don't care where Steve's tail is, so long as his ears are open.
Yeah, but it's kind of implicit in what you're saying, which is that Apple should have, inexplicably, forgone sales of the phone they had (not to mention a leg up on the boilerplate of negotiating channel allocation), because European sensibilities would be so deeply offended by a phone without 3G it would subsequently depress sales of a 3G phone, once it arrived.
Right? Because unless a 2G iPhone actually in some way will prove to damage the sales of the next model, there is no reason in the world for Apple not to sell those phones and make that money.
As far as what Apple's expectation for a 2G model in Europe were..... we don't really know that, do we? Apple only looks foolish if we hypothesis that they thought the iPhone was going to take Europe by storm, and I've never seen anything from Apple that suggests that that's what they believed.
You know, what I don't get is this attitude that Apple made a huge blunder by not including a 3G radio in the iPhone from the start, and now that sophisticated European users are turning up their noses Apple has been humiliated and will be forced to come around.
Um, you do realise this is the Internet? Where any regular Joe, or Juan, or Jiri, or Jan, or Jin or Jun has an opinion. They're just like you or your neighbor, no smarter or dumber, just opinionated. In any discussion about this, you must have the fortitude to keep on going no matter how convoluted or dense the thread has gone. Sort of like a light version of political-religious-social threads.
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All of that is just silly. Apple was very clear from the start: when they released the iPhone in America, a 2G radio was the better choice, because of battery life and coverage.
When 3G radios became efficient enough, they would add one.
Which is what is happening. I suppose Apple could have simply not sold the iPhone anywhere but America until they had a 3G model ready to go, but what would be the point of that?
What's with all the "bwa-ha-ha, the greedy arrogant Jobs has been brought low by the steely resolve of gimlet eyed continentals" crap? It just makes some of you seem sort of xenophobic.
Remember, they are just like you. And if you have any perspective, you should realize they really don't know what they are talking about (they are just like you ) because no one has the market demographics, sales info, expectations, and such. If they did, they won't be talking, and would be selling the information or working for the company.
As for 3G, just think about this factoid. In terms of 3G users, the USA, as of calendar Q4 07, has a slightly higher percentage of 3G users in its market then Great Britain, Germany and France in their respective markets. Italy/Spain is a little bit higher. Apple did their market demographics right, and their strategy right, by going with EDGE at first with the iPhone.
The difficulty with Europe has mostly been price. There's a lot of talk about how Europe is this cell phone market haven with a lot of consumer rights, but in the end, the operators still offer free or heavily discounted phones for signing on to a long term (12, 18 months) contract. Dollars to donuts, people would rather have a little discomfort (long term contract) for getting something cheaper. I really doubt many consumers will pay $700 for a Nokia N-series phone, unlocked, when they could get it for much much less with a contract.
Corollary to that is Europe does have more high-end phones on the market, and at discounted prices with contract. Lastly, Apple's brand power isn't very strong outside of the USA. So, competition is stiff.
The lunacy is that members of the Internet believe that Apple does not know this.
While I don't think the people participating in European iPhone topics here on AI are xenophobic, it's something that shouldn't be discounted for any company entering into a foreign market. People are nationalistic, are xenophobic by nature. Apple, whose a rather galling company for techno-geeks and enterprise CIOs, generates controversy as part of its being. It shouldn't come as a surprise that their are so many love-hate discussions. And that's just in the USA. Imagine Apple entering an entrenched cell phone market in Europe with it's own set of fan-culture. Well, lile evolution threads, patience and fortitude are required.
As much as I agree with you about the e-Series v the current iPhone, Apple have announced most of the e-series features will be available in iPhone v2.0, so in that regard I think you're off base. They're missing Blackberry Connect support but they're nearly there on the feature comparison list. Editing office files might be useful too I guess before you can say it's a fully fledged business phone.
I missed this post from Aegis. And I completely agree.
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Apple should just stick another 128MB of RAM in the iPhone and kill off the silly no multitasking rule. I think it's a good idea that the OS asks the application to save it's state and quit when a call comes in or when you're running out of RAM like Symbian does, but I think there should still be a way of letting the app decide if it should do as it's told to.
News from the latest SDK build sound as if Apple is working on this. Background processing may or may not make the next firmware update. But I imagine Apple will include it as soon as they feel it works without negatively impacting the performance of the phone.
UIApplication delegate class: "There are definitely some very interesting methods added to UIApplication's delegate, including methods for badging the Springboard icon, and methods related to gaining and resigning "active" status - seems like background apps may be permitted somehow."
But a note to SP... Teno tends to play innocent when cornered, simply to draw out the debate and win by default when you get tired of pulling teeth with him.
I'm genuinely asking for examples of how I moved the goal posts and my bias. I gave example of why I felt you guys were biased against the iPhone.
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C'mon Teno. It's been pointed out to you many times that 1) 3G penetration in Europe is rising rapidly and 2) it's uneven, which means that some Euro nations, like Italy, have significantly higher 3G penetration rates than the continent as a whole.
I don't understand how this differs from what I said. Unless you have evidence that European 3G use has risen above 34% in its user base.
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It's 2008. Why would you continue to try to downplay the importance of 3G, especially in Europe, which is further along in that regard than the US? Thankfully, Apple does not appear to share this view.
I said 3G is a superior technology to EDGE. Ultimately you refuse to acknowledge the fact that the iPhone having grown into a dominant data device despite EDGE and its 6% marketshare. Clearly shows high quality software is more important than data speed.
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Yes, the iPhone is being used a good amount as a mobile internet device, because the large touchscreen plus mobile Safari provides a good user experience. You point this out in an attempt to show that the iPhone doesn't really need 3G, because things are going well already.
You are being argumentative. I didn't say anything like this at all. What I said is that it shows which part of the user experience is more useful and important. That doesn't mean the iPhone doesn't need 3G.
Apple has vastly improved Safari since last year. Add 3G to the mix, the iPhone is likely to crush everyone else in data marketshare.
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Really? Let's try using iChat over EDGE or GPRS.
I do IM over EDGE.
I also watch lots of video over EDGE.
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But you know as well as I that those internet usage figures would EXPLODE with a 3G iPhone, as the user experience would then be improved a great deal further.
Yes they will. But you cannot ignore the phenomenal growth of the iPhone internet marketshare in relation to its over all marketshare in such a short time.
iPhone internet usage figures will explode even larger with 3G and long battery life.
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Btw, where do you get your iPhone profit numbers? I wasn't aware that Apple was breaking them out separately as of yet... are they "official", or are you guesstimating?
Macworld published the breakout numbers.
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ANYONE can generate a short-term sales spike via a pricecut. Dell can do the same, does it mean that Dells are super-desirable cutting-edge products that everyone should buy? Nope.
Its not normal for a failed product to receive a sales cut that still leaves it more expensive than its competition and sells out of its stock.
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The true test is whether a price point re-set causes a significant increase in LONG-TERM demand. I think in Europe it will, but sufficiently only if its coupled with the timely release of a 3G model, with some of the other glaring feature deficits addressed as well.
I completely agree. I've said several times in our debates that Nokia has been in telephone communications for over 20 years. Apple has been in mobile communications for 10 months. Apple has only just begun growing the iPhone platform, it will grow and change.
The difficulty with Europe has mostly been price. There's a lot of talk about how Europe is this cell phone market haven with a lot of consumer rights, but in the end, the operators still offer free or heavily discounted phones for signing on to a long term (12, 18 months) contract. Dollars to donuts, people would rather have a little discomfort (long term contract) for getting something cheaper. I really doubt many consumers will pay $700 for a Nokia N-series phone, unlocked, when they could get it for much much less with a contract.
While I don't think the people participating in European iPhone topics here on AI are xenophobic, it's something that shouldn't be discounted for any company entering into a foreign market. People are nationalistic, are xenophobic by nature. Apple, whose a rather galling company for techno-geeks and enterprise CIOs, generates controversy as part of its being. It shouldn't come as a surprise that their are so many love-hate discussions. And that's just in the USA. Imagine Apple entering an entrenched cell phone market in Europe with it's own set of fan-culture. Well, lile evolution threads, patience and fortitude are required.
It was a mistake because Apple is the newbie on the block in the cellphone game, and they're going up against some very large and entrenched competition that's been around for decades, like Nokia. So Apple's first challenge is to be taken seriously. It's difficult to succeed in that challenge if your first product in a big market (Europe) doesn't do well and lacks many 'duh' features that your prospective customers expect and want in a high-end phone. The initial pricing didn't help either.
Apple could have released the same featured rich with mediocre use phone as many of its competitors. But Apple never does this with any of its products. They always take an alternate route.
The alternate route was developing a few well written high quality applications. Using hardware centered around media and graphics display as well as extending battery life. This gives Apple a strong foundation to further add more hardware and software.
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Difficult to believe, but I do actually have a job and a life outside of AI.
Are they hiring.
Oh, Teno's not a bad guy at all, he's just overly dedicated to the Apple party line and very stubborn.
I am starting to see some cracks in his armor though... I think he's finally getting how critical the 3G refresh is, that maybe Apple really isn't doing well in Europe (duh), and that it IS worrisome that Apple is so far behind pace to meet their 10 million goal.
Sometimes it takes awhile to bring ppl around. Though I'm sure T will always at least sip the Kool-aid, he may stop chugging it.
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For sure, for sure. Teno is one of the better guys to discuss with here. JeffDM is pretty good as well.
Again this is TBaggins opinion. There is no evidence that this is the collective opinion of the mobile phone market at large.
Spoken like a US-centric cellphone customer.
Watch and learn, T. 3G is what's going to allow Apple to launch in Italy, Japan, and Korea. It's also what's going to set up the sales stampede on both sides of the pond come late June. There's really no overstating its importance.
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For sure, for sure. Teno is one of the better guys to discuss with here. JeffDM is pretty good as well.
Jeff's good. Teno's kool-aid tendencies make him a good barometer of the Apple party line. Mel is great. Also like to read posts from Electric Monk, Aegis, and Solipism.
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Spoken like a US-centric cellphone customer.
Watch and learn, T. 3G is what's going to allow Apple to launch in Italy, Japan, and Korea. It's also what's going to set up the sales stampede on both sides of the pond come late June. There's really no overstating its importance.
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Teno's lack of understanding of the importance of 3G is typical of those that have never surfed the net at 7.2 mb/sec on their phone. Or have made a VoIP or video conference call. This would include much of the iPhone community, and most of the US cellular market as well. The very lack of 3G was what caused Finland to give Stevie-Boy the old Foxtrot Oscar. If arguably the most sophisticate and tech savvy market, i.e. Finland is not hyped about the iPhone, there has to be something wrong with this picture. I have not checked the figures but the iPods are selling quite well here. The iPod Touch is a big seller, but when asked if they would like to have an iPhone, many say it is not really worth the money as it is crippled in many ways.
I could be wrong but I think MR. Baggins is talking about how you defended to the end that the iPhone is not selling in well in Europe and how the goal posts continue to be moved in your arguments.
How have I moved the goal posts?
If you say so but from the posts I have read from you, you tend to tow the party line, but if you feels your views have been misrepresented, fair enough. You are given benefit of the doubt by me.
What exactly is the party line.
I think my "moving the goal posts" argument is valid here. Some things are good or bad, black or white. In my opinion, the iPhone is a great iPod with phone, but a bad phone with iPod. I am in favor of Apple doing better than it did because it is not that hard to do.
I'm confused by this whole paragraph.
How have I moved the goal posts?
Some things are good and bad for you. But your opinion doesn't determine what is good or bad for everyone else.
You say you own an iPhone but then continue to call it an iPod with a phone. When the iPod is one of several applications shipped with the device. Its no more an iPod with a phone than any other phone that has media playing capabilities. Surveys have shown the iPod application is one of the least used on the iPhone.
If you wish to continue calling it an iPod with a phone please come up with some supporting evidence more than you own limited opinion.
Really? Not commonly used? How do people check their emails, or surf, or use the various chatting applications? Ever here of Fring, iSkoot, Truphone? These all run over wifi or 3G. You might be misunderstanding when they say 3G as in video-calls, but no one ( my guess completely) is making the conscience effort to manually switch off 3G in favor of straight GSM/GPRS data calls. No way. As you said it is ubiquitous and most people have no idea how they are connecting. The setting are automatic the moment you stick the card in the phone.
I'm talking about the number of people who even have a 3G tariff. People have posted various reports about European 3G usage. European mobile phone usage is nearly 100%, of that number only about 34% of mobile phone users pay for a 3G tariff.
Not sure I buy this. Can you post a link to this and how they arrived at this? I would be willing to bet that 3G phones are using as much data as EDGE networks. By the way, 3G settings are automatically input into the phone where as EDGE has to be manually entered or sent via the operator.
Apple's iPhone is driving "unheard of levels of mobile Internet usage," an O2 executive said Monday.
Matthew Key, who becomes chief executive of O2 Europe next month, told the Financial Times that 60 per cent of the company's iPhone customers in the UK were sending or receiving more than 25 megabytes of data a month, the equivalent of 7,500 e-mails without attachments or 25 YouTube videos. By comparison, less than 2 per cent of O2's other UK customers on monthly payment contracts use more than 25MB a month.
However, the O2 research found that customers who have Nokia's N95, the Finnish handset maker's nearest equivalent to the iPhone, which runs on 3G networks, access markedly less data compared with those using the Apple device.
iPhone browsing marketshare closes in on .1%, .09 percent may seem like an extremely small marketshare but when you consider that the iPhone has only been selling for 5 months and for most of that time was in one – albeit large – market (the U.S.), that share is amazing. Add another .01% for the iPod touch and Apple mobile platform is one out of every thousand pageviews across the Internet. Desktop platforms are starting to come into the iPhone's blast radius. Windows 95 has less than a quarter of the marketshare of the iPhone. And all of the Linux variants combined, just over five times (.57%) the market. Broken out over Red Hat, Novel, Ubuntu, etc, someone is losing to the iPhone right now. At this rate, the iPhone/iPod platform should be the third largest computing platform by the end of next year.
Not sure what you mean here.
Consumers don't directly use 3G or EDGE. Consumer directly use software. The quality of the software more determines the usefulness of the data connection.
Apple did make some money. Not as much as they could have if they had a product that Europeans would purchase without a second thought. The operators were going to get those subscriptions regardless. People want phones and connections.
Motorola has sold 27.4 million phones sold at $7.45 billion in revenue for a $194 million loss in profits. Motorola sold 16 times more phones at around 8 times more revenue than the iPhone.
The iPhone sold 1.7 million phones for 378 million in sales, $1.93 billion in total deferred revenue for $1.05 billion in total profit.
Its easy to say you can sell more phones. But selling more phones does not necessarily equate into more profit.
Maybe not in the US, but those I have spoken to here in Europe see the iPhone as completely underwhelming in terms of what a biz user wants. They all agree that the media player aspect is without equal. Agreed, but Europeans are most so simplistic in terms of telephony. It takes more than a snazzy UI to impress.
O2 has reported to sell out of iPhones with the price decreases. That doesn't generally happen to a product that has failed in the market.
Motorola has sold 27.4 million phones sold at $7.45 billion in revenue for a $194 million loss in profits. Motorola sold 16 times more phones at around 8 times more revenue than the iPhone.
The iPhone sold 1.7 million phones for 378 million in sales, $1.93 billion in total deferred revenue for $1.05 billion in total profit.
Its easy to say you can sell more phones. But selling more phones does not necessarily equate into more profit.
While we all know that Motorola is a financial basketcase, you have a mis-understanding of the deferred revenue for the iphone.
Apple booked $5 million in iphone revenue in June quarter, and for the next 7 quarters it will continue to book $5 million per quarter.
Apple booked $123 million in iphone revenue for the Sept quarter --- but only $118 million came from Sept quarter sales ($5 million came from June quarter sales that were deferred).
5 + 118 = 123.
Apple booked $241 million in iphone revenue for the Dec quarter --- but only $118 million came from Dec quarter sales ($5 million + $118 million from previous quarters that were deferred).
5 + 118 + 118 = 241.
So for the March quarter --- it's $137 million for the March quarter sales (plus $5 million + $118 million + $118 million from previous quarters that were deferred).
5+ 118 + 118 + 137 = 378.
$1.93 billion deferred is for the whole 5.4 million iphones (minus March 6 - March 31 sales).
While we all know that Motorola is a financial basketcase, you have a mis-understanding of the deferred revenue for the iphone.
$1.93 billion deferred is for the whole 5.4 million iphones (minus March 6 - March 31 sales).
Yeah I know what the deferred revenue is about. Its deferred over 24 months. That is why I said Motorola made about 8 times more revenue than the iPhone for the quarter. I mention it because as much profit as Apple made this quarter that revenue will return even more profit that Apple did not see this quarter.
Yeah I know what the deferred revenue is about. Its deferred over 24 months. That is why I said Motorola made about 8 times more revenue than the iPhone for the quarter. I mention it because as much profit as Apple made this quarter that revenue will return even more profit that Apple did not see this quarter.
Actually it's worse than that --- handset revenue for Motorola is only $3.3 billion for the last quarter.
How have I moved the goal posts?
What exactly is the party line.
I'm confused by this whole paragraph.
How have I moved the goal posts?
I'll leave all this for SapporoBaby, whom its addressed to. But a note to SP... Teno tends to play innocent when cornered, simply to draw out the debate and win by default when you get tired of pulling teeth with him. He also has a bad habit of insisting on evidence for every single point you make, though he doesn't seem to hold himself to the same rigor.
Not to say Teno is awful or anything... its pretty much just Internet Debating 101.
I'm talking about the number of people who even have a 3G tariff. People have posted various reports about European 3G usage. European mobile phone usage is nearly 100%, of that number only about 34% of mobile phone users pay for a 3G tariff.
C'mon Teno. It's been pointed out to you many times that 1) 3G penetration in Europe is rising rapidly and 2) it's uneven, which means that some Euro nations, like Italy, have significantly higher 3G penetration rates than the continent as a whole. Which is part of why Apple's waiting for the 3G model before launching in Italy.
It's 2008. Why would you continue to try to downplay the importance of 3G, especially in Europe, which is further along in that regard than the US?
Apple's iPhone is driving "unheard of levels of mobile Internet usage," an O2 executive said Monday.
...iPhone browsing marketshare closes in on .1%, .09 percent may seem like an extremely small marketshare but when you consider that the iPhone has only been selling for 5 months and for most of that time was in one – albeit large – market (the U.S.), that share is amazing.
...At this rate, the iPhone/iPod platform should be the third largest computing platform by the end of next year.
Shame on you Teno, we've been over this, and you know better by now.
Yes, the iPhone is being used a good amount as a mobile internet device, because the large touchscreen plus mobile Safari provides a good user experience. You point this out in an attempt to show that the iPhone doesn't really need 3G, because things are going well already.
But you know as well as I that those internet usage figures would EXPLODE with a 3G iPhone, as the user experience would then be improved a great deal further. Yes, the connection DOES matter, because its the piece of the puzzle that's missing... most especially in Europe, which doesn't even have slow EDGE for its 2.5G, but rather SUPER-slow, crappy GPRS (aka dialup speed), because many places in Europe didn't bother with EDGE, they went straight from GPRS to 3G.
Consumers don't directly use 3G or EDGE. Consumer directly use software. The quality of the software more determines the usefulness of the data connection.
Really? Let's try using iChat over EDGE or GPRS.
Motorola has sold 27.4 million phones sold at $7.45 billion in revenue for a $194 million loss in profits. Motorola sold 16 times more phones at around 8 times more revenue than the iPhone.
The iPhone sold 1.7 million phones for 378 million in sales, $1.93 billion in total deferred revenue for $1.05 billion in total profit.
Its easy to say you can sell more phones. But selling more phones does not necessarily equate into more profit.
Samab's already addressed you here, so no need to expound further.
Btw, where do you get your iPhone profit numbers? I wasn't aware that Apple was breaking them out separately as of yet... are they "official", or are you guesstimating?
O2 has reported to sell out of iPhones with the price decreases. That doesn't generally happen to a product that has failed in the market.
ANYONE can generate a short-term sales spike via a pricecut. Dell can do the same, does it mean that Dells are super-desirable cutting-edge products that everyone should buy? Nope.
The true test is whether a price point re-set causes a significant increase in LONG-TERM demand. I think in Europe it will, but sufficiently only if its coupled with the timely release of a 3G model, with some of the other glaring feature deficits addressed as well.
The Euros are sophisticated cellphone buyers and have a lot of choices in the smartphone market, the iPhone needs to be strong across the board.
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All of that is just silly. Apple was very clear from the start: when they released the iPhone in America, a 2G radio was the better choice, because of battery life and coverage.
When 3G radios became efficient enough, they would add one.
Which is what is happening. I suppose Apple could have simply not sold the iPhone anywhere but America until they had a 3G model ready to go, but what would be the point of that?
What's with all the "bwa-ha-ha, the greedy arrogant Jobs has been brought low by the steely resolve of gimlet eyed continentals" crap? It just makes some of you seem sort of xenophobic.
And please, could we just dispense with the "fan boys bow down before their master" stuff? Cause it's kinda irritating.
You know, what I don't get is this attitude that Apple made a huge blunder by not including a 3G radio in the iPhone from the start
Meh... no 3G at launch didn't end up holding Apple back a lot in the US, but it has ended up being a mistake to launch with what is essentially the US 2.5G model in the more sophisticated and demanding European market. And it'd be a pretty huge disaster to launch with that in much of Asia (Japan, Korea), which is why they're not going to do that. Well, they're learning, in any case. Italy is pretty heavily 3G (for Europe) and Apple is going to wait until the 3G model to launch there, which is smart.
The rest of your post seems to be a tad emotional and perhaps reading some things in that either aren't there, or are only there for a few posters. I own Apple stock, and don't wish to see them "humbled"... it's better for my bottom line if they get it right the first time.
Unfortunately, no one bats a thousand, and even Stevie J makes mistakes. Which is okay, so long as he finally listens and corrects them in a timely manner, which is all I care about. If there's some sort of Euro Fanboi vs Jobs Fanboi war going on in the background, I honestly don't give a damn.
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Meh... no 3G at launch didn't end up holding Apple back a lot in the US, but it has ended up being a mistake to launch with what is essentially the US 2.5G model in the more sophisticated and demanding European market. And it'd be a pretty huge disaster to launch with that in much of Asia (Japan, Korea), which is why they're not going to do that. Well, they're learning, in any case. Italy is pretty heavily 3G (for Europe) and Apple is going to wait until the 3G model to launch there, which is smart.
The rest of your post seems to be a tad emotional and perhaps reading some things in that either aren't there, or are only there for a few posters. I own Apple stock, and don't wish to see them "humbled"... it's better for my bottom line if they get it right the first time.
Unfortunately, no one bats a thousand, and even Stevie J makes mistakes. Which is okay, so long as he finally listens and corrects them in a timely manner, which is all I care about. If there's some sort of Euro Fanboi vs Jobs Fanboi war going on in the background, I honestly don't give a damn.
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OK, but I don't see how launching into the European market with the phone they had was a mistake, or how following that with the 3G phone that was planned all along is any kind of correction due to "learning."
I mean, I think the sophisticated European phone buyer can figure out that a 3G model is different from a 2G, yes? So it's not like the fact that a 2G iPhone has been on the market is going to depress sales of a 3G model because potential buyers will be saying "oh, the iPhone, I tried that and it sucked", right?
So they've sold some phones and developed some vendor relationships. All to the better when they release the 3G model.
What is the downside here, for Apple? Do Europeans hold grudges if vendors fail to meet their stringent requirements in every case? Will they eschew the 3G iPhone to punish Apple, for, I dunno, "arrogance"?
Apple is doing what it intended to do all along, clearly. All this drama about offending European sensibilities, or attributing all kinds of negative attributes to Apple because of their timing (greed, ignorance, arrogance, etc.) seems pretty goofy to me.
Now as far as relationships with carriers, and the pricing structure-- sure, Apple probably has to change it up, and it seems like they're willing to do that. But that's just business-- you put a plan into motion, gauge the results, modify if necessary.
No "Apple with its tail between its legs" necessary, just business.
OK, but I don't see how launching into the European market with the phone they had was a mistake
It was a mistake because Apple is the newbie on the block in the cellphone game, and they're going up against some very large and entrenched competition that's been around for decades, like Nokia. So Apple's first challenge is to be taken seriously. It's difficult to succeed in that challenge if your first product in a big market (Europe) doesn't do well and lacks many 'duh' features that your prospective customers expect and want in a high-end phone. The initial pricing didn't help either.
Put another way, say I'm some brand new Chinese auto maker that you've never heard of. I release a car into the US that's pretty good... except it doesn't have airbags or power steering, and is overpriced as well. It kinda bombs. Are you likely to take my next product super-seriously? Am I on your short list for your next auto purchase? Do I displace long-time established, entrenched makes like Honda, Toyota, and GM in you, the consumer's, mind? No, no, and no.
Remember, there's barely a six month gap between the Euro launch of the 2.5G iPhone, and what is looking to be the (June) Euro launch of the 3G iPhone. Why hurt your brand and your rep just to rush a 2.5G phone into a market where it's not going to sell well anyway?
And, no, I don't think this was according to Apple's plan, i.e. Apple didn't do this KNOWING the 2.5G iPhone would underwhelm in Europe, and figure, "Meh, it's okay, we'll kick ass with the 3G model anyway."
Apple knows all about brand, public perception, marketing... they're masters of it. Frankly, they got caught by surprise... they honestly thought that the 2.5G model would still do pretty well in the European market, even with a feature set that was questionable by Euro standards, and even at the (high) prices they were trying to charge.
It was a miscalculation, and they are adapting, but I'm sure if they had a chance to do it over, they would've changed a lot of things about the European launch, including very likely the timeframe.
On the bright side, the US launch went well, and the Asian launch should as well, as that will be a 3G model, which is pretty much required these days by the Japanese and Korean markets. So, two out of three ain't bad. But I think Europe is an uphill battle, with the 3G iPhone fighting for respect every step of the way. Aggressive pricing will help.
No "Apple with its tail between its legs" necessary, just business.
I don't care where Steve's tail is, so long as his ears are open.
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It was a mistake because Apple is the newbie on the block in the cellphone game, and they're going up against some very large and entrenched competition that's been around for decades, like Nokia. So Apple's first challenge is to be taken seriously. It's difficult to succeed in that challenge if your first product in a big market (Europe) doesn't do well and lacks many 'duh' features that your prospective customers expect and want in a high-end phone. The initial pricing didn't help either.
Put another way, say I'm some brand new Chinese auto maker that you've never heard of. I release a car into the US that's pretty good... except it doesn't have airbags or power steering, and is overpriced as well. It kinda bombs. Are you likely to take my next product super-seriously? Am I on your short list for your next auto purchase? Do I displace long-time established, entrenched makes like Honda, Toyota, and GM in you, the consumer's, mind? No, no, and no.
Remember, there's barely a six month gap between the Euro launch of the 2.5G iPhone, and what is looking to be the (June) Euro launch of the 3G iPhone. Why hurt your brand and your rep just to rush a 2.5G phone into a market where it's not going to sell well anyway?
And, no, I don't think this was according to Apple's plan, i.e. Apple didn't do this KNOWING the 2.5G iPhone would underwhelm in Europe, and figure, "Meh, it's okay, we'll kick ass with the 3G model anyway."
Apple knows all about brand, public perception, marketing... they're masters of it. Frankly, they got caught by surprise... they honestly thought that the 2.5G model would still do pretty well in the European market, even with a feature set that was questionable by Euro standards, and even at the (high) prices they were trying to charge.
It was a miscalculation, and they are adapting, but I'm sure if they had a chance to do it over, they would've changed a lot of things about the European launch, including very likely the timeframe.
On the bright side, the US launch went well, and the Asian launch should as well, as that will be a 3G model, which is pretty much required these days by the Japanese and Korean markets. So, two out of three ain't bad. But I think Europe is an uphill battle, with the 3G iPhone fighting for respect every step of the way. Aggressive pricing will help.
I don't think the car analogy works that well. The worst thing you can do is introduce a product with poor quality. Hyundi and others made that mistake, and it takes a long time to change the perception that your products are shoddy.
That's a very different proposition from "limited feature set." The analogy here would be if a Chinese manufacture introduced a very well made, very reliable, extremely fun to drive and great handling car into the American market, but only offered it as two door sedan, and left out a few things (iPod integration on the stereo, say, or traction control) that many cars in its price class habitually featured. Also, because gas mileage is a priority for this manufacturer, it is only offered with a relatively low power engine.
Some buyers find the driving experience and general quality to be uniquely satisfying enough as to override concerns about features. Others do not.
Then, our hypothetical Chinese company follows up with a more fully featured cross-over vehicle, and advances in technology mean they can offer a more powerful motor with similar mileage. The new model appears to address buyers reluctance to forgo features, while still retaining its well deserved reputation for quality and enjoyment.
So, again, I don't see how "really well made, full efficient, high quality, fun to drive and great handling, missing some features that a lot of buyers in this market want" translates into "now we will never take this manufacturer seriously again and not even bother to check out their newest stuff."
I don't care where Steve's tail is, so long as his ears are open.
Yeah, but it's kind of implicit in what you're saying, which is that Apple should have, inexplicably, forgone sales of the phone they had (not to mention a leg up on the boilerplate of negotiating channel allocation), because European sensibilities would be so deeply offended by a phone without 3G it would subsequently depress sales of a 3G phone, once it arrived.
Right? Because unless a 2G iPhone actually in some way will prove to damage the sales of the next model, there is no reason in the world for Apple not to sell those phones and make that money.
As far as what Apple's expectation for a 2G model in Europe were..... we don't really know that, do we? Apple only looks foolish if we hypothesis that they thought the iPhone was going to take Europe by storm, and I've never seen anything from Apple that suggests that that's what they believed.
You know, what I don't get is this attitude that Apple made a huge blunder by not including a 3G radio in the iPhone from the start, and now that sophisticated European users are turning up their noses Apple has been humiliated and will be forced to come around.
Um, you do realise this is the Internet?
All of that is just silly. Apple was very clear from the start: when they released the iPhone in America, a 2G radio was the better choice, because of battery life and coverage.
When 3G radios became efficient enough, they would add one.
Which is what is happening. I suppose Apple could have simply not sold the iPhone anywhere but America until they had a 3G model ready to go, but what would be the point of that?
What's with all the "bwa-ha-ha, the greedy arrogant Jobs has been brought low by the steely resolve of gimlet eyed continentals" crap? It just makes some of you seem sort of xenophobic.
Remember, they are just like you. And if you have any perspective, you should realize they really don't know what they are talking about (they are just like you
As for 3G, just think about this factoid. In terms of 3G users, the USA, as of calendar Q4 07, has a slightly higher percentage of 3G users in its market then Great Britain, Germany and France in their respective markets. Italy/Spain is a little bit higher. Apple did their market demographics right, and their strategy right, by going with EDGE at first with the iPhone.
The difficulty with Europe has mostly been price. There's a lot of talk about how Europe is this cell phone market haven with a lot of consumer rights, but in the end, the operators still offer free or heavily discounted phones for signing on to a long term (12, 18 months) contract. Dollars to donuts, people would rather have a little discomfort (long term contract) for getting something cheaper. I really doubt many consumers will pay $700 for a Nokia N-series phone, unlocked, when they could get it for much much less with a contract.
Corollary to that is Europe does have more high-end phones on the market, and at discounted prices with contract. Lastly, Apple's brand power isn't very strong outside of the USA. So, competition is stiff.
The lunacy is that members of the Internet believe that Apple does not know this.
While I don't think the people participating in European iPhone topics here on AI are xenophobic, it's something that shouldn't be discounted for any company entering into a foreign market. People are nationalistic, are xenophobic by nature. Apple, whose a rather galling company for techno-geeks and enterprise CIOs, generates controversy as part of its being. It shouldn't come as a surprise that their are so many love-hate discussions. And that's just in the USA. Imagine Apple entering an entrenched cell phone market in Europe with it's own set of fan-culture. Well, lile evolution threads, patience and fortitude are required.
As much as I agree with you about the e-Series v the current iPhone, Apple have announced most of the e-series features will be available in iPhone v2.0, so in that regard I think you're off base. They're missing Blackberry Connect support but they're nearly there on the feature comparison list. Editing office files might be useful too I guess before you can say it's a fully fledged business phone.
I missed this post from Aegis. And I completely agree.
Apple should just stick another 128MB of RAM in the iPhone and kill off the silly no multitasking rule. I think it's a good idea that the OS asks the application to save it's state and quit when a call comes in or when you're running out of RAM like Symbian does, but I think there should still be a way of letting the app decide if it should do as it's told to.
News from the latest SDK build sound as if Apple is working on this. Background processing may or may not make the next firmware update. But I imagine Apple will include it as soon as they feel it works without negatively impacting the performance of the phone.
UIApplication delegate class: "There are definitely some very interesting methods added to UIApplication's delegate, including methods for badging the Springboard icon, and methods related to gaining and resigning "active" status - seems like background apps may be permitted somehow."
But a note to SP... Teno tends to play innocent when cornered, simply to draw out the debate and win by default when you get tired of pulling teeth with him.
I'm genuinely asking for examples of how I moved the goal posts and my bias. I gave example of why I felt you guys were biased against the iPhone.
C'mon Teno. It's been pointed out to you many times that 1) 3G penetration in Europe is rising rapidly and 2) it's uneven, which means that some Euro nations, like Italy, have significantly higher 3G penetration rates than the continent as a whole.
I don't understand how this differs from what I said. Unless you have evidence that European 3G use has risen above 34% in its user base.
It's 2008. Why would you continue to try to downplay the importance of 3G, especially in Europe, which is further along in that regard than the US? Thankfully, Apple does not appear to share this view.
I said 3G is a superior technology to EDGE. Ultimately you refuse to acknowledge the fact that the iPhone having grown into a dominant data device despite EDGE and its 6% marketshare. Clearly shows high quality software is more important than data speed.
Yes, the iPhone is being used a good amount as a mobile internet device, because the large touchscreen plus mobile Safari provides a good user experience. You point this out in an attempt to show that the iPhone doesn't really need 3G, because things are going well already.
You are being argumentative. I didn't say anything like this at all. What I said is that it shows which part of the user experience is more useful and important. That doesn't mean the iPhone doesn't need 3G.
Apple has vastly improved Safari since last year. Add 3G to the mix, the iPhone is likely to crush everyone else in data marketshare.
Really? Let's try using iChat over EDGE or GPRS.
I do IM over EDGE.
I also watch lots of video over EDGE.
But you know as well as I that those internet usage figures would EXPLODE with a 3G iPhone, as the user experience would then be improved a great deal further.
Yes they will. But you cannot ignore the phenomenal growth of the iPhone internet marketshare in relation to its over all marketshare in such a short time.
iPhone internet usage figures will explode even larger with 3G and long battery life.
Btw, where do you get your iPhone profit numbers? I wasn't aware that Apple was breaking them out separately as of yet... are they "official", or are you guesstimating?
Macworld published the breakout numbers.
ANYONE can generate a short-term sales spike via a pricecut. Dell can do the same, does it mean that Dells are super-desirable cutting-edge products that everyone should buy? Nope.
Its not normal for a failed product to receive a sales cut that still leaves it more expensive than its competition and sells out of its stock.
The true test is whether a price point re-set causes a significant increase in LONG-TERM demand. I think in Europe it will, but sufficiently only if its coupled with the timely release of a 3G model, with some of the other glaring feature deficits addressed as well.
I completely agree. I've said several times in our debates that Nokia has been in telephone communications for over 20 years. Apple has been in mobile communications for 10 months. Apple has only just begun growing the iPhone platform, it will grow and change.
The difficulty with Europe has mostly been price. There's a lot of talk about how Europe is this cell phone market haven with a lot of consumer rights, but in the end, the operators still offer free or heavily discounted phones for signing on to a long term (12, 18 months) contract. Dollars to donuts, people would rather have a little discomfort (long term contract) for getting something cheaper. I really doubt many consumers will pay $700 for a Nokia N-series phone, unlocked, when they could get it for much much less with a contract.
While I don't think the people participating in European iPhone topics here on AI are xenophobic, it's something that shouldn't be discounted for any company entering into a foreign market. People are nationalistic, are xenophobic by nature. Apple, whose a rather galling company for techno-geeks and enterprise CIOs, generates controversy as part of its being. It shouldn't come as a surprise that their are so many love-hate discussions. And that's just in the USA. Imagine Apple entering an entrenched cell phone market in Europe with it's own set of fan-culture. Well, lile evolution threads, patience and fortitude are required.
I agree.
It was a mistake because Apple is the newbie on the block in the cellphone game, and they're going up against some very large and entrenched competition that's been around for decades, like Nokia. So Apple's first challenge is to be taken seriously. It's difficult to succeed in that challenge if your first product in a big market (Europe) doesn't do well and lacks many 'duh' features that your prospective customers expect and want in a high-end phone. The initial pricing didn't help either.
Apple could have released the same featured rich with mediocre use phone as many of its competitors. But Apple never does this with any of its products. They always take an alternate route.
The alternate route was developing a few well written high quality applications. Using hardware centered around media and graphics display as well as extending battery life. This gives Apple a strong foundation to further add more hardware and software.