Is there a precedent for iPods being introduced in July? In the middle of the back to school promotion?
So many questions!
The last three years they would wait until September to announce new iPods, clearing out the old with the bts promotion, but Mac sales are down due to the economy so they might be throwing the new hotness iPod in with certain Mac sales.
After all Apple is making a killing off the app sales, especially games. Kids are hooked. Third party developers are chomping at the bit to get a piece of that back to school action $$.
The holiday buying season is going to be all about necessities this year, I'm betting hard on it.
IMO of course, I really don't know anything, but I like to guess and hope I'm right.
I read his bio. He's done a lot of work for Nokia, hasn't he? The only phone MANUFACTURER he's worked for. Isn't that coincidental?
...
The only link supports the concept that this guy is a Nokia supporter. If fact, it supports the view that he's protecting his business interests.
Ahonen did use to work for Nokia, but hasn't for a long time, so I don't there is any business interest to support. He was also a Mac trainer (working for an Apple-related company but not Apple itself) before that and has "evangelized" OS X.
Having read his blog as well as his books for the last couple of years, I don't believe he has any intentional bias for Nokia, or against Apple. As he has written, cell phone history will be forever seen as two eras, BI and AI, or Before-iPhone and After-iPhone. So he does recognize to some degree the transformation that iPhone has caused.
He thoroughly knows the cellular market, in particular outside of the US, so there is much that he says that's worth mulling over (if you can get beyond his long-windedness and his bold assertions). He's very open to being questioned on his blog and always responds with lightheartedness, usually with real examples of what's been tried.
That said, he's been part of the cellular industry for a long time. So I think he does have blind spots about some things that were tried before and failed, but that Apple is trying again and succeeding - such as the value of Apps, location-based services, the critical importance of the UI, and the value of OS software updates. I think Apple has shaken the "thinking" about such things, but it's hard to fully understand how Apple has been able to do it. It is often very hard to put a finger on exactly what is the Apple special sauce, and I think he too often misses it.
For example, he believes the key hindrance to iPhone market growth now is Apple's annual model release schedule, because the industry releases new model variations every quarter and that's what people (primarily outside the US) have been trained to follow. The data to date supports him. But I think Apple can blow up the status quo because the iPhone does carry a lasting status, and Apple could instead release significant OS updates twice a year (instead of new hardware). Apple hasn't really done so yet because I think Apple is not in a rush (Apple works at a steady pace that suits the company), but I think it could when it's ready.
For example, he believes the key hindrance to iPhone market growth now is Apple's annual model release schedule, because the industry releases new model variations every quarter and that's what people (primarily outside the US) have been trained to follow. The data supports him. But I think Apple can blow up the status quo because the iPhone does carry a lasting status, and Apple could instead release significant OS updates twice a year (instead of new hardware). It hasn't yet really done so, but I think it could.
Great point. It has been debated in several Nokia forums that they should offer a migration path of some sort with their phones and OS's. The N82 is still arguably one of the best phones Nokia has ever released. Xenon flash, great camera, music player, etc.... but limited with Feature Pack 1. If Nokia were smart, they would offer Feature Pack 2 for say ?150 as much of the hardware is the same. I am not a "fan" as many are blind fanboys in this forum but I do appreciate Nokia products as well as those from Apple. My money is loyal only to the best bang for the buck.
Ahonen did use to work for Nokia, but hasn't for a long time, so I don't there is any business interest to support. He was also a Mac trainer (working for an Apple-related company but not Apple itself) before that and has "evangelized" OS X.
Having read his blog as well as his books for the last couple of years, I don't believe he has any intentional bias for Nokia, or against Apple. As he has written, cell phone history will be forever seen as two eras, BI and AI, or Before-iPhone and After-iPhone. So he does recognize to some degree the transformation that iPhone has caused.
He thoroughly knows the cellular market, in particular outside of the US, so there is much that he says that's worth mulling over (if you can get beyond his long-windedness and his bold assertions). He's very open to being questioned on his blog and always responds with lightheartedness, usually with real examples of what's been tried.
That said, he's been part of the cellular industry for a long time. So I think he does have blind spots about some things that were tried before and failed, but that Apple is trying again and succeeding - such as the value of Apps, location-based services, the critical importance of the UI, and the value of OS software updates. I think Apple has shaken the "thinking" about such things, but it's hard to fully understand how Apple has been able to do it. It is often very hard to put a finger on exactly what is the Apple special sauce, and I think he too often misses it.
For example, he believes the key hindrance to iPhone market growth now is Apple's annual model release schedule, because the industry releases new model variations every quarter and that's what people (primarily outside the US) have been trained to follow. The data to date supports him. But I think Apple can blow up the status quo because the iPhone does carry a lasting status, and Apple could instead release significant OS updates twice a year (instead of new hardware). Apple hasn't really done so yet because I think Apple is not in a rush (Apple works at a steady pace that suits the company), but I think it could when it's ready.
Its interesting though that he has, and you don't know if he still is. After all, his own bio says that he gives advice that can't be spoken about. Oooh!
But from being in business a long time I can tell you that there are a lot of high prices "academics" who have written books, given seminars and such who are paid high fees to give business advice which then falls flat, because they really don't know nearly as much about the real world of business as one might think, looking at their published career.
It's therefor very possible that he's given advice to Nokia and others that's now falling flat, and he's just trying to show that his advice wasn't wrong. Otherwise who els will hire him from now on?
The point is that I'm not overly impressed, and as has been stated about the other article (though there are a awful lot of articles just like that one), he's just one guy. When his statements are so different from everyone else's, you have to wonder if he's the one making the mistakes.
So much for him.
It's pretty obvious that Nokia's been making mistakes. They've had two years to come up with something new, and they haven't. Their store is the only thing that's new, and it's obviously been rushed.
It surely seems that after Apple came out with the app store that Nokia and others waited to see how well it would go before starting on their own. This has given them a shortened timescale to respond. Nokia's store is a prime example of that.
And you are not yourself acting as a Nokia fan? Really?
No, I own a Nokia phone, so what? I also own several Macs, and a few iPods.
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross
If you don't find the thread of value, then why are you commenting in it?
Because I dislike the blatant dis-truths spread in this thread.
The only comeback they have in this thread is the mp of the camera, to which, if you had read the linked page is a useless argruement as just about everyother phone manufacturer has been providing large mp cameras on their phonees for years.
And what is Apples great innovation they bring to the iPhone 3GS....
MMS, gee thanks Apple, way to catch up with 2002
Video Capture, my Nokia 7650 had that over 5 years ago.
Its interesting though that he has, and you don't know if he still is. After all, his own bio says that he gives advice that can't be spoken about. Oooh!
Melgross are you really going to try to use this as an argument? There is such a thing as an NDA, Confidentiality agreement, etc...Weak....
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But from being in business a long time I can tell you that there are a lot of high prices "academics" who have written books, given seminars and such who are paid high fees to give business advice which then falls flat, because they really don't know nearly as much about the real world of business as one might think, looking at their published career.
Interesting but when Walt Mosberg or Shaw Wu mentions anything, it is immediately perceived as the Gospel. Double Standard comes to mind.
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It's therefor very possible that he's given advice to Nokia and others that's now falling flat, and he's just trying to show that his advice wasn't wrong. Otherwise who els will hire him from now on?
Did I mention Walt Mosberg and Shaw Wu?
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The point is that I'm not overly impressed, and as has been stated about the other article (though there are a awful lot of articles just like that one), he's just one guy. When his statements are so different from everyone else's, you have to wonder if he's the one making the mistakes.
As an American that has lived in much of Europe, the Mid East, Gulf, and few other places thrown in, it is very easy to see how the US media are more than happy to sell their journalistic integrity for a price, for access, or anything of immediate value. Does the Iraq-a-palooza come to mind?
[Quote}So much for him.[/Quote]
Universal translation: I do not agree with him and my opinion is the only one that counts.....
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It's pretty obvious that Nokia's been making mistakes. They've had two years to come up with something new, and they haven't. Their store is the only thing that's new, and it's obviously been rushed.
Name one company that has not made mistakes. Funny how the iBoys are quick to forget that Apple was one paycheck away from being a has been. Things and people fall out of favor all the time.
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It surely seems that after Apple came out with the app store that Nokia and others waited to see how well it would go before starting on their own. This has given them a shortened timescale to respond. Nokia's store is a prime example of that.
And this is wrong why? Are we forgetting that Apple is looking at the market to see if netbooks or tablets will be a big ticket item? Or is it okay because Apple does it?
By the way, before I get branded a Nokia lover, I also will take delivery of an iPhone in a few days. Fair and balanced.
Take home message: Nokia maintained/increased marketshare despite the introduction of the iPhone 3GS and Palm Pre.
Not bad for a doomed company.
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Originally Posted by Apple Insider
Nokia stock nosedives as Apple gains on market leader
I assume AI will amend the headline now that it's proven to be false?
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Originally Posted by melgross
This again is your opinion. Most other opinions disagree. You claim to have "special" knowledge that others don't, and so can see more clearly?
Having developed for Symbian (and WinMo and Android), I agree with his position. Symbian itself isn't the problem - it's Nokia's retarded UI. The base OS is actually pretty good - and newer than the Linux/BSD foundations of other platforms.
Do you really think that Nokia should waste massive resources moving to a different OS when they'll still slap their junk UI over the top of it anyway? What problem does that solve exactly?
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Originally Posted by melgross
It's both. But why would Nokia use an older processor that Apple abandoned? A lot of people are questioning that move.
Apple has abandoned the ARM 11 core? Apple's website disagrees with you. The 8GB model still uses an ARM 11 core.
This article on AI is pretty shitty but its no more shitty than most of the other pieces of Nokia "analysis" floating about on the internet. They ignore the facts (profits, market share and smartphone market share all up from Q1) and instead peddle the same myth that Nokia is doomed. It's lazy journalism. The problem is that most commentators live in the US so they don't have first-hand experience with Nokia's products and they don't understand the rock star status of the brand in the rest of the world.
Its interesting though that he has, and you don't know if he still is. After all, his own bio says that he gives advice that can't be spoken about. Oooh!
But from being in business a long time I can tell you that there are a lot of high prices "academics" who have written books, given seminars and such who are paid high fees to give business advice which then falls flat, because they really don't know nearly as much about the real world of business as one might think, looking at their published career.
It's therefor very possible that he's given advice to Nokia and others that's now falling flat, and he's just trying to show that his advice wasn't wrong. Otherwise who els will hire him from now on?
The point is that I'm not overly impressed, and as has been stated about the other article (though there are a awful lot of articles just like that one), he's just one guy. When his statements are so different from everyone else's, you have to wonder if he's the one making the mistakes.
Yes, it's possible that he's defending advice that he's given. Though he's just one guy. he is an acknowledged expert by those in the industry. And of course, all those in the industry could be wrong (the industry being insular).
Going back to the beginning here, the Forbes article was poorly written. Ahonen was correctly defending Nokia's string of innovations over the past 10 years. However, although Ahonen recognizes this as the new iPhone era, he doesn't recognize that Apple's innovation could be so super-disruptive that Nokia won't be able to hold on.
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It's pretty obvious that Nokia's been making mistakes. They've had two years to come up with something new, and they haven't. Their store is the only thing that's new, and it's obviously been rushed.
It surely seems that after Apple came out with the app store that Nokia and others waited to see how well it would go before starting on their own. This has given them a shortened timescale to respond. Nokia's store is a prime example of that.
I agree. As I said, Nokia's CC indicates they began to realize the need to change in 2008; too late for the N97. But can they change the culture of such a large company? They talk about being "solutions-centric" and "user experience". But is that really all that's needed? Apple is great at zigging and zagging, i.e., consistently changing the focus of what's important. Apple may be focusing attention on Apps right now, but what surprises are next? What's more important is how does Nokia get ahead of Apple.
Nokia simply missed the touch screen revolution, which the LG Prada started, but with the 5800 and now the N97 they are right back in the game, and their marketshare growth reflects this. They are planning to increase their range of touch screen phones a lot (with a new cheaper version if the 5800 for example, which is already selling 1 million a month, and with the N97 best sellers on Vodafone UK ) and due to their huge economies of scale continue to dominate the smartphone market.
These articles are hilarious, especially in the way they imply a cause and effect and also zero sum game between Apple's tiny increase in market share and Nokia's past losses.
If Steve Jobs peed in the ocean the people here would claim he made the tide come in!
Why dont the iDiots explain why Apple cant unseat even RIM, who have the oldest and ugliest UI in the world, the slowest and poorest browser, and their best sellers dont even have touch screens! You have to get past number 2 before you can take on number 1...
What Apple primarily brought with the iPhone 3 OS is a intuitive and easy use interface. You may mock the 3GS video, but Youtube reported a 400% incease because of the 3GS.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfanning
MMS, gee thanks Apple, way to catch up with 2002
Video Capture, my Nokia 7650 had that over 5 years ago.
Take home message: Nokia maintained/increased marketshare despite the introduction of the iPhone 3GS and Palm Pre.
Not bad for a doomed company.
Let's look at the bigger picture:
Q4 2004: 63% (Nokia high point when "smartphone market" was just 8m units).
Q2 2007 (iPhone release): 51%, followed by 50%, 47%, 44%, 41%, 35%, 31% in Q4 2008.
Finally, in Q1 2009, Nokia bounces back to 38% with the release of the 5800 Expressmusic phones (initial release in Oct in UK, Feb09 release in US). The 5800 has dropped in price from $399 in Feb to $299 unlocked today. Nokia's sold 6.8m 5800 cumulative since release. (In specs, the 5800 matches up very well with iPhone, but with a much smaller App Store. Specs aren't everything when it comes to Apple.)
Meanwhile, Nokia's premium N-series phones have dropped from 11.4m units in Q4 2007 to 4.6m units in Q2 2009, while its E-series phones have increased from 2.1m to 4.7m units as E-series with qwerty keyboard is popular with business and for heavy SMSers. (E71 is $500 unlocked; E71x is free with AT&T contract at Amazon, saves $400).
Conclusion: Nokia was bleeding heavily in the smartphone market but has finally turned it around (except I think it's still in trouble in the US.)
I don't want to comment on anything that has been said here, but one thing that makes Apple unique is its eco-system. No other company has the luxury of a successful computer OS that can be adapted to work in a phone. What other company has 100% influence on both the hardware and the software in their phone? I believe that this is the power of Apple and it shows.
Nokia can do what they want, they have to make their phone compatible with (crappy) Windows OS, and just so it works, with XP, Vista and Windows 7. Oh, and it has to work on an Acer, a Dell, an HP, a Sony and a dozen other brands. (Note that I didn't include Apple.)
Apple's iTunes, the ease of installing apps, the simplicity of the system will be hard to match, let alone to beat. And that's why Apple is a leader, and all others, Nokia included, need to find the holy grail to catch up, but in all honesty, can they ever?
Nokia simply missed the touch screen revolution, which the LG Prada started...
Now that's hilarious...
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Why dont the iDiots explain why Apple cant unseat even RIM, who have the oldest and ugliest UI in the world, the slowest and poorest browser, and their best sellers dont even have touch screens! You have to get past number 2 before you can take on number 1...
Ahonen's explanation is that SMS has been and still is the biggest (and most lucrative) App in the world and it's catching up in the US. For now, SMS is more important than Internet for most. And SMSers want to operate with no-look one-handed physical keyboard. So BB capturing most of them in US, while Nokia doing so in rest of QWERTY-using world. And I think he's right about that. (btw, some think Pre can compete with BB in this space.)
Open question to debate is: Will internet access (web-based services) and native apps (such as gaming) become more important than SMS in the future?
Another perspective: Anything + computer = computer. In other words, when computer added functionality, we still called it computer. It's also true that anything + phone = phone. In other words, when phone added music player, we still think of it first as phone. When phone added GPS, we still think of it first as phone. Apple clearly saw this; that's why they went so hard after the trademark for "iPhone." (Definition: A phone is a device that provides reachability (voice, SMS, IM, email, etc) even when it is in its "off" or "sleep" state, i.e., in your pocket.)
The question Ahonen asks, is what is the answer to computer + phone? Will we think phone? Or computer? I think Apple thinks we'll think phone.
And that's why I think Microsoft and the PC makers are the ones that will see a shrinking market over time, as computing power is added to the phone. I really thought MS invested in Zune (and dissed their partners) because they saw this, but having watched what's happened since, I'm doubting it.
Added: I own a 32GB iPhone 3GS and MacBook Pro and love both.
No, I own a Nokia phone, so what? I also own several Macs, and a few iPods.
Because I dislike the blatant dis-truths spread in this thread.
The only comeback they have in this thread is the mp of the camera, to which, if you had read the linked page is a useless argruement as just about everyother phone manufacturer has been providing large mp cameras on their phonees for years.
And what is Apples great innovation they bring to the iPhone 3GS....
MMS, gee thanks Apple, way to catch up with 2002
Video Capture, my Nokia 7650 had that over 5 years ago.
I don't agree with you about the untruths. so far, there's been one defender, and plenty detractors of Nokia's current performance. Even Nokia seems concerned.
Look, frankly, I don't want to see Nokia have major problems. I've been saying, and Saporrobaby can confirm, I've said constantly that Nokia will remain one of the major suppliers of smartphones, we just don't know if it will remain number one or not.
First of all. This isn't attack against AppleInsider or melgross ........ this why, frankly, my dear melgross, I don't think you should be commenting in a thread which is about mobile technology or Nokia. You may know your stuff around Apple, but as we know Apple isn't the whole industry, no matter how great company it is.
Wow. Eric, please restore my faith in humanity and tell me, in all honesty, that you don't work for (or are affiliated with) Nokia.
Melgross are you really going to try to use this as an argument? There is such a thing as an NDA, Confidentiality agreement, etc...Weak....
I'm aware of that. I've signed more of them then I care to remember. It's just the way it was written in the bio. It sounded as though it was all so very hush hush. They could have worded it better.
Quote:
Interesting but when Walt Mosberg or Shaw Wu mentions anything, it is immediately perceived as the Gospel. Double Standard comes to mind.
Did I mention Walt Mosberg and Shaw Wu?
We're talking about a very different type of person and job. Have you done consulting, because I have. If you give advice, and it's taken, it better be right. I not, your reputation goes down very quickly. If it's publicly disdained, as would be the case if Nokia's direction was advised by him, then that could be a disaster.
I'm not saying that this is the case, but I don't think his defense of Nokia was very good. It did look to me to be defensive in nature.
Mossbery is a technology writer, who reviews products. If he advises companies on his own time, then that's something we don't know, and I think it would be a conflict of interest.
Wu is a financial analyst. Thats also very different. He's also not on his own, but works at the company he reports for. He doesn't advise companies on technical matters, or business direction.
Quote:
As an American that has lived in much of Europe, the Mid East, Gulf, and few other places thrown in, it is very easy to see how the US media are more than happy to sell their journalistic integrity for a price, for access, or anything of immediate value. Does the Iraq-a-palooza come to mind?
I've seen that in all areas of the world. Many times it's much worse. Many countries have official Tv, radio, newspaper and magazine outlets of their own. We have the Congressional Record.
Quote:
"So much for him."
Universal translation: I do not agree with him and my opinion is the only one that counts.....
No. The point is that he was placed up on a pedestal. he doesn't belong there.
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It's pretty obvious that Nokia's been making mistakes. They've had two years to come up with something new, and they haven't. Their store is the only thing that's new, and it's obviously been rushed.
Quote:
Name one company that has not made mistakes. Funny how the iBoys are quick to forget that Apple was one paycheck away from being a has been. Things and people fall out of favor all the time.
Every company makes mistakes. But right now, it's Nokia that might lose the ballgame. What's happened in the past to Apple or anyone else doesn't matter here. Nokia is a separate company. What they choose to do has nothing to do with what Apple did years ago.
If you want to bring up Apple as a comeback kid, then it was also very fair for him in the article to say that Nokia was having a "Motorola moment". Nokia may not be the next Apple, they may also be the next Motorola. We have to remember that it can go either way.
You know that from our past talks I think that Nokia will stay in the game. But every year that they fail to keep up makes that possibility less clear.
What the various articles are saying is that Nokia is slipping badly. They have to make it up. They can't take another two or three years. It may be too late.
What they question is the culture. You know how often a company's culture determines how they react to situations. Maybe what Nokia needs is new leadership. Apple got that. Motorola didn't. We can see how they both turned out.
Which way will Nokia go?
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"It surely seems that after Apple came out with the app store that Nokia and others waited to see how well it would go before starting on their own. This has given them a shortened timescale to respond. Nokia's store is a prime example of that."
And this is wrong why? Are we forgetting that Apple is looking at the market to see if netbooks or tablets will be a big ticket item? Or is it okay because Apple does it?
I said why there. It's given them much less time to respond. Now they think they must do it quickly. Since coming up with a good model for this takes time, the software takes time, and putting it into place takes time, its difficult to do a good job in just a few months.
If I were still in business, I would have reacted more quickly. I was saying right after Apple opened the App Store that other companies would have to get on the ball quickly or they would have problems matching the quality of Apples'.
I was right. The other stores, so far, have all been criticized for the way they work.
A store for apps which delivers products over the internet in an easy to understand way that also has seamless product purchasing is very difficult to do.
Look at the criticism being given. I'm not the only one saying this. Tell me one other app store that has been given good reviews when compared to Apples'. Not one so far.
As far as a possible tablet/netbook thingie by Apple goes, well, we'll see. Remember that all the phone manufacturers, including Nokia put down the idea of Apple building a successful phone. What happened?
This is part of that culture and leadership thing I mentioned before. Right now, Apple's got it. But they have flops too. Remember the Cube?
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By the way, before I get branded a Nokia lover, I also will take delivery of an iPhone in a few days. Fair and balanced.
I know who you are. That's why we can usually have sane discussions.
By the way. If you want to quote me so that my comment remains in the post, you can't use the beginning and end of quote statements. It screws up the quoting. Just use " ". It took a while to fix it.
Take home message: Nokia maintained/increased marketshare despite the introduction of the iPhone 3GS and Palm Pre.
Not bad for a doomed company.
I don't know where you got those numbers from, but the Bloomberg report I linked to shows that Q2 2008, Nokia had a 45.1% smartphone marketshare. Not the 41% you show. That's a drop of 4 points. Quarter to quarter is more difficult to tell because companies come out with new phones so a short period tells us less, unless it's a steady trend.
During the same period, Apple doubled it's marketshare to 10.8%. So the report is correct all along. Apple is quickly gaining on a falling Nokia.
Rim is gaining as well, and has about a 22% marketshare.
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I assume AI will amend the headline now that it's proven to be false?
Since the headine is correct, there's no reason to change it.
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Having developed for Symbian (and WinMo and Android), I agree with his position. Symbian itself isn't the problem - it's Nokia's retarded UI. The base OS is actually pretty good - and newer than the Linux/BSD foundations of other platforms.
If you think that Symbian can handle all the new media and GUI demands that it's being asked to manage, something that it wasn't designed for, then that's good. But age isn't a determinant of quality, or suitableness.
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Do you really think that Nokia should waste massive resources moving to a different OS when they'll still slap their junk UI over the top of it anyway? What problem does that solve exactly?
They have already done so with their new system, Maemo, that will be coming out sometime.
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Apple has abandoned the ARM 11 core? Apple's website disagrees with you. The 8GB model still uses an ARM 11 core.
I'm sure you know what I meant. The 3G price was dropped to $99 here. It's still the same phone The new phones have dropped it.
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This article on AI is pretty shitty but its no more shitty than most of the other pieces of Nokia "analysis" floating about on the internet. They ignore the facts (profits, market share and smartphone market share all up from Q1) and instead peddle the same myth that Nokia is doomed. It's lazy journalism. The problem is that most commentators live in the US so they don't have first-hand experience with Nokia's products and they don't understand the rock star status of the brand in the rest of the world.
It's interesting that because the analysis is negative, that it's thought to be shitty. If it was positive, then it wouldn't be?
So if the analysis was that even though marketshare for both cheap phones and smartphones are showing year to year drops, and profits plunged again, it means nothing?
What Apple primarily brought with the iPhone 3 OS is a intuitive and easy use interface. You may mock the 3GS video, but Youtube reported a 400% incease because of the 3GS.
I thought they were meant to have brought that with the original iPhone OS?
Also, judging by the majority of videos available on youTube, how many of those additional videos are of anything useful?
Comments
Seriously?
Is there a precedent for iPods being introduced in July? In the middle of the back to school promotion?
So many questions!
The last three years they would wait until September to announce new iPods, clearing out the old with the bts promotion, but Mac sales are down due to the economy so they might be throwing the new hotness iPod in with certain Mac sales.
After all Apple is making a killing off the app sales, especially games. Kids are hooked. Third party developers are chomping at the bit to get a piece of that back to school action $$.
The holiday buying season is going to be all about necessities this year, I'm betting hard on it.
IMO of course, I really don't know anything, but I like to guess and hope I'm right.
I read his bio. He's done a lot of work for Nokia, hasn't he? The only phone MANUFACTURER he's worked for. Isn't that coincidental?
...
The only link supports the concept that this guy is a Nokia supporter. If fact, it supports the view that he's protecting his business interests.
Ahonen did use to work for Nokia, but hasn't for a long time, so I don't there is any business interest to support. He was also a Mac trainer (working for an Apple-related company but not Apple itself) before that and has "evangelized" OS X.
Having read his blog as well as his books for the last couple of years, I don't believe he has any intentional bias for Nokia, or against Apple. As he has written, cell phone history will be forever seen as two eras, BI and AI, or Before-iPhone and After-iPhone. So he does recognize to some degree the transformation that iPhone has caused.
He thoroughly knows the cellular market, in particular outside of the US, so there is much that he says that's worth mulling over (if you can get beyond his long-windedness and his bold assertions). He's very open to being questioned on his blog and always responds with lightheartedness, usually with real examples of what's been tried.
That said, he's been part of the cellular industry for a long time. So I think he does have blind spots about some things that were tried before and failed, but that Apple is trying again and succeeding - such as the value of Apps, location-based services, the critical importance of the UI, and the value of OS software updates. I think Apple has shaken the "thinking" about such things, but it's hard to fully understand how Apple has been able to do it. It is often very hard to put a finger on exactly what is the Apple special sauce, and I think he too often misses it.
For example, he believes the key hindrance to iPhone market growth now is Apple's annual model release schedule, because the industry releases new model variations every quarter and that's what people (primarily outside the US) have been trained to follow. The data to date supports him. But I think Apple can blow up the status quo because the iPhone does carry a lasting status, and Apple could instead release significant OS updates twice a year (instead of new hardware). Apple hasn't really done so yet because I think Apple is not in a rush (Apple works at a steady pace that suits the company), but I think it could when it's ready.
For example, he believes the key hindrance to iPhone market growth now is Apple's annual model release schedule, because the industry releases new model variations every quarter and that's what people (primarily outside the US) have been trained to follow. The data supports him. But I think Apple can blow up the status quo because the iPhone does carry a lasting status, and Apple could instead release significant OS updates twice a year (instead of new hardware). It hasn't yet really done so, but I think it could.
Great point. It has been debated in several Nokia forums that they should offer a migration path of some sort with their phones and OS's. The N82 is still arguably one of the best phones Nokia has ever released. Xenon flash, great camera, music player, etc.... but limited with Feature Pack 1. If Nokia were smart, they would offer Feature Pack 2 for say ?150 as much of the hardware is the same. I am not a "fan" as many are blind fanboys in this forum but I do appreciate Nokia products as well as those from Apple. My money is loyal only to the best bang for the buck.
Ahonen did use to work for Nokia, but hasn't for a long time, so I don't there is any business interest to support. He was also a Mac trainer (working for an Apple-related company but not Apple itself) before that and has "evangelized" OS X.
Having read his blog as well as his books for the last couple of years, I don't believe he has any intentional bias for Nokia, or against Apple. As he has written, cell phone history will be forever seen as two eras, BI and AI, or Before-iPhone and After-iPhone. So he does recognize to some degree the transformation that iPhone has caused.
He thoroughly knows the cellular market, in particular outside of the US, so there is much that he says that's worth mulling over (if you can get beyond his long-windedness and his bold assertions). He's very open to being questioned on his blog and always responds with lightheartedness, usually with real examples of what's been tried.
That said, he's been part of the cellular industry for a long time. So I think he does have blind spots about some things that were tried before and failed, but that Apple is trying again and succeeding - such as the value of Apps, location-based services, the critical importance of the UI, and the value of OS software updates. I think Apple has shaken the "thinking" about such things, but it's hard to fully understand how Apple has been able to do it. It is often very hard to put a finger on exactly what is the Apple special sauce, and I think he too often misses it.
For example, he believes the key hindrance to iPhone market growth now is Apple's annual model release schedule, because the industry releases new model variations every quarter and that's what people (primarily outside the US) have been trained to follow. The data to date supports him. But I think Apple can blow up the status quo because the iPhone does carry a lasting status, and Apple could instead release significant OS updates twice a year (instead of new hardware). Apple hasn't really done so yet because I think Apple is not in a rush (Apple works at a steady pace that suits the company), but I think it could when it's ready.
Its interesting though that he has, and you don't know if he still is. After all, his own bio says that he gives advice that can't be spoken about. Oooh!
But from being in business a long time I can tell you that there are a lot of high prices "academics" who have written books, given seminars and such who are paid high fees to give business advice which then falls flat, because they really don't know nearly as much about the real world of business as one might think, looking at their published career.
It's therefor very possible that he's given advice to Nokia and others that's now falling flat, and he's just trying to show that his advice wasn't wrong. Otherwise who els will hire him from now on?
The point is that I'm not overly impressed, and as has been stated about the other article (though there are a awful lot of articles just like that one), he's just one guy. When his statements are so different from everyone else's, you have to wonder if he's the one making the mistakes.
So much for him.
It's pretty obvious that Nokia's been making mistakes. They've had two years to come up with something new, and they haven't. Their store is the only thing that's new, and it's obviously been rushed.
It surely seems that after Apple came out with the app store that Nokia and others waited to see how well it would go before starting on their own. This has given them a shortened timescale to respond. Nokia's store is a prime example of that.
And you are not yourself acting as a Nokia fan? Really?
No, I own a Nokia phone, so what? I also own several Macs, and a few iPods.
If you don't find the thread of value, then why are you commenting in it?
Because I dislike the blatant dis-truths spread in this thread.
The only comeback they have in this thread is the mp of the camera, to which, if you had read the linked page is a useless argruement as just about everyother phone manufacturer has been providing large mp cameras on their phonees for years.
And what is Apples great innovation they bring to the iPhone 3GS....
MMS, gee thanks Apple, way to catch up with 2002
Video Capture, my Nokia 7650 had that over 5 years ago.
http://www.allaboutsymbian.com/news/...good_rolli.php
Its interesting though that he has, and you don't know if he still is. After all, his own bio says that he gives advice that can't be spoken about. Oooh!
Melgross are you really going to try to use this as an argument? There is such a thing as an NDA, Confidentiality agreement, etc...Weak....
But from being in business a long time I can tell you that there are a lot of high prices "academics" who have written books, given seminars and such who are paid high fees to give business advice which then falls flat, because they really don't know nearly as much about the real world of business as one might think, looking at their published career.
Interesting but when Walt Mosberg or Shaw Wu mentions anything, it is immediately perceived as the Gospel. Double Standard comes to mind.
It's therefor very possible that he's given advice to Nokia and others that's now falling flat, and he's just trying to show that his advice wasn't wrong. Otherwise who els will hire him from now on?
Did I mention Walt Mosberg and Shaw Wu?
The point is that I'm not overly impressed, and as has been stated about the other article (though there are a awful lot of articles just like that one), he's just one guy. When his statements are so different from everyone else's, you have to wonder if he's the one making the mistakes.
As an American that has lived in much of Europe, the Mid East, Gulf, and few other places thrown in, it is very easy to see how the US media are more than happy to sell their journalistic integrity for a price, for access, or anything of immediate value. Does the Iraq-a-palooza come to mind?
[Quote}So much for him.[/Quote]
Universal translation: I do not agree with him and my opinion is the only one that counts.....
It's pretty obvious that Nokia's been making mistakes. They've had two years to come up with something new, and they haven't. Their store is the only thing that's new, and it's obviously been rushed.
Name one company that has not made mistakes. Funny how the iBoys are quick to forget that Apple was one paycheck away from being a has been. Things and people fall out of favor all the time.
It surely seems that after Apple came out with the app store that Nokia and others waited to see how well it would go before starting on their own. This has given them a shortened timescale to respond. Nokia's store is a prime example of that.
And this is wrong why? Are we forgetting that Apple is looking at the market to see if netbooks or tablets will be a big ticket item? Or is it okay because Apple does it?
By the way, before I get branded a Nokia lover, I also will take delivery of an iPhone in a few days. Fair and balanced.
Q2 2008: 41%
Q1 2009: 38%
Q2 2009: 41%
Take home message: Nokia maintained/increased marketshare despite the introduction of the iPhone 3GS and Palm Pre.
Not bad for a doomed company.
Nokia stock nosedives as Apple gains on market leader
I assume AI will amend the headline now that it's proven to be false?
This again is your opinion. Most other opinions disagree. You claim to have "special" knowledge that others don't, and so can see more clearly?
Having developed for Symbian (and WinMo and Android), I agree with his position. Symbian itself isn't the problem - it's Nokia's retarded UI. The base OS is actually pretty good - and newer than the Linux/BSD foundations of other platforms.
Do you really think that Nokia should waste massive resources moving to a different OS when they'll still slap their junk UI over the top of it anyway? What problem does that solve exactly?
It's both. But why would Nokia use an older processor that Apple abandoned? A lot of people are questioning that move.
Apple has abandoned the ARM 11 core? Apple's website disagrees with you. The 8GB model still uses an ARM 11 core.
This article on AI is pretty shitty but its no more shitty than most of the other pieces of Nokia "analysis" floating about on the internet. They ignore the facts (profits, market share and smartphone market share all up from Q1) and instead peddle the same myth that Nokia is doomed. It's lazy journalism. The problem is that most commentators live in the US so they don't have first-hand experience with Nokia's products and they don't understand the rock star status of the brand in the rest of the world.
Its interesting though that he has, and you don't know if he still is. After all, his own bio says that he gives advice that can't be spoken about. Oooh!
But from being in business a long time I can tell you that there are a lot of high prices "academics" who have written books, given seminars and such who are paid high fees to give business advice which then falls flat, because they really don't know nearly as much about the real world of business as one might think, looking at their published career.
It's therefor very possible that he's given advice to Nokia and others that's now falling flat, and he's just trying to show that his advice wasn't wrong. Otherwise who els will hire him from now on?
The point is that I'm not overly impressed, and as has been stated about the other article (though there are a awful lot of articles just like that one), he's just one guy. When his statements are so different from everyone else's, you have to wonder if he's the one making the mistakes.
Yes, it's possible that he's defending advice that he's given. Though he's just one guy. he is an acknowledged expert by those in the industry. And of course, all those in the industry could be wrong (the industry being insular).
Going back to the beginning here, the Forbes article was poorly written. Ahonen was correctly defending Nokia's string of innovations over the past 10 years. However, although Ahonen recognizes this as the new iPhone era, he doesn't recognize that Apple's innovation could be so super-disruptive that Nokia won't be able to hold on.
It's pretty obvious that Nokia's been making mistakes. They've had two years to come up with something new, and they haven't. Their store is the only thing that's new, and it's obviously been rushed.
It surely seems that after Apple came out with the app store that Nokia and others waited to see how well it would go before starting on their own. This has given them a shortened timescale to respond. Nokia's store is a prime example of that.
I agree. As I said, Nokia's CC indicates they began to realize the need to change in 2008; too late for the N97. But can they change the culture of such a large company? They talk about being "solutions-centric" and "user experience". But is that really all that's needed? Apple is great at zigging and zagging, i.e., consistently changing the focus of what's important. Apple may be focusing attention on Apps right now, but what surprises are next? What's more important is how does Nokia get ahead of Apple.
Nokia simply missed the touch screen revolution, which the LG Prada started, but with the 5800 and now the N97 they are right back in the game, and their marketshare growth reflects this. They are planning to increase their range of touch screen phones a lot (with a new cheaper version if the 5800 for example, which is already selling 1 million a month, and with the N97 best sellers on Vodafone UK ) and due to their huge economies of scale continue to dominate the smartphone market.
These articles are hilarious, especially in the way they imply a cause and effect and also zero sum game between Apple's tiny increase in market share and Nokia's past losses.
If Steve Jobs peed in the ocean the people here would claim he made the tide come in!
Why dont the iDiots explain why Apple cant unseat even RIM, who have the oldest and ugliest UI in the world, the slowest and poorest browser, and their best sellers dont even have touch screens! You have to get past number 2 before you can take on number 1...
MMS, gee thanks Apple, way to catch up with 2002
Video Capture, my Nokia 7650 had that over 5 years ago.
Nokia's smartphone marketshare:
Q2 2008: 41%
Q1 2009: 38%
Q2 2009: 41%
Take home message: Nokia maintained/increased marketshare despite the introduction of the iPhone 3GS and Palm Pre.
Not bad for a doomed company.
Let's look at the bigger picture:
Q4 2004: 63% (Nokia high point when "smartphone market" was just 8m units).
Q2 2007 (iPhone release): 51%, followed by 50%, 47%, 44%, 41%, 35%, 31% in Q4 2008.
Finally, in Q1 2009, Nokia bounces back to 38% with the release of the 5800 Expressmusic phones (initial release in Oct in UK, Feb09 release in US). The 5800 has dropped in price from $399 in Feb to $299 unlocked today. Nokia's sold 6.8m 5800 cumulative since release. (In specs, the 5800 matches up very well with iPhone, but with a much smaller App Store. Specs aren't everything when it comes to Apple.)
Meanwhile, Nokia's premium N-series phones have dropped from 11.4m units in Q4 2007 to 4.6m units in Q2 2009, while its E-series phones have increased from 2.1m to 4.7m units as E-series with qwerty keyboard is popular with business and for heavy SMSers. (E71 is $500 unlocked; E71x is free with AT&T contract at Amazon, saves $400).
Conclusion: Nokia was bleeding heavily in the smartphone market but has finally turned it around (except I think it's still in trouble in the US.)
Nokia can do what they want, they have to make their phone compatible with (crappy) Windows OS, and just so it works, with XP, Vista and Windows 7. Oh, and it has to work on an Acer, a Dell, an HP, a Sony and a dozen other brands. (Note that I didn't include Apple.)
Apple's iTunes, the ease of installing apps, the simplicity of the system will be hard to match, let alone to beat. And that's why Apple is a leader, and all others, Nokia included, need to find the holy grail to catch up, but in all honesty, can they ever?
Lots of iDiots here.
Nokia simply missed the touch screen revolution, which the LG Prada started...
Now that's hilarious...
Why dont the iDiots explain why Apple cant unseat even RIM, who have the oldest and ugliest UI in the world, the slowest and poorest browser, and their best sellers dont even have touch screens! You have to get past number 2 before you can take on number 1...
Ahonen's explanation is that SMS has been and still is the biggest (and most lucrative) App in the world and it's catching up in the US. For now, SMS is more important than Internet for most. And SMSers want to operate with no-look one-handed physical keyboard. So BB capturing most of them in US, while Nokia doing so in rest of QWERTY-using world. And I think he's right about that. (btw, some think Pre can compete with BB in this space.)
Open question to debate is: Will internet access (web-based services) and native apps (such as gaming) become more important than SMS in the future?
Another perspective: Anything + computer = computer. In other words, when computer added functionality, we still called it computer. It's also true that anything + phone = phone. In other words, when phone added music player, we still think of it first as phone. When phone added GPS, we still think of it first as phone. Apple clearly saw this; that's why they went so hard after the trademark for "iPhone." (Definition: A phone is a device that provides reachability (voice, SMS, IM, email, etc) even when it is in its "off" or "sleep" state, i.e., in your pocket.)
The question Ahonen asks, is what is the answer to computer + phone? Will we think phone? Or computer? I think Apple thinks we'll think phone.
And that's why I think Microsoft and the PC makers are the ones that will see a shrinking market over time, as computing power is added to the phone. I really thought MS invested in Zune (and dissed their partners) because they saw this, but having watched what's happened since, I'm doubting it.
Added: I own a 32GB iPhone 3GS and MacBook Pro and love both.
No, I own a Nokia phone, so what? I also own several Macs, and a few iPods.
Because I dislike the blatant dis-truths spread in this thread.
The only comeback they have in this thread is the mp of the camera, to which, if you had read the linked page is a useless argruement as just about everyother phone manufacturer has been providing large mp cameras on their phonees for years.
And what is Apples great innovation they bring to the iPhone 3GS....
MMS, gee thanks Apple, way to catch up with 2002
Video Capture, my Nokia 7650 had that over 5 years ago.
I don't agree with you about the untruths. so far, there's been one defender, and plenty detractors of Nokia's current performance. Even Nokia seems concerned.
Look, frankly, I don't want to see Nokia have major problems. I've been saying, and Saporrobaby can confirm, I've said constantly that Nokia will remain one of the major suppliers of smartphones, we just don't know if it will remain number one or not.
But they are in trouble.
First of all. This isn't attack against AppleInsider or melgross ........ this why, frankly, my dear melgross, I don't think you should be commenting in a thread which is about mobile technology or Nokia. You may know your stuff around Apple, but as we know Apple isn't the whole industry, no matter how great company it is.
Wow. Eric, please restore my faith in humanity and tell me, in all honesty, that you don't work for (or are affiliated with) Nokia.
Melgross are you really going to try to use this as an argument? There is such a thing as an NDA, Confidentiality agreement, etc...Weak....
I'm aware of that. I've signed more of them then I care to remember. It's just the way it was written in the bio. It sounded as though it was all so very hush hush. They could have worded it better.
Interesting but when Walt Mosberg or Shaw Wu mentions anything, it is immediately perceived as the Gospel. Double Standard comes to mind.
Did I mention Walt Mosberg and Shaw Wu?
We're talking about a very different type of person and job. Have you done consulting, because I have. If you give advice, and it's taken, it better be right. I not, your reputation goes down very quickly. If it's publicly disdained, as would be the case if Nokia's direction was advised by him, then that could be a disaster.
I'm not saying that this is the case, but I don't think his defense of Nokia was very good. It did look to me to be defensive in nature.
Mossbery is a technology writer, who reviews products. If he advises companies on his own time, then that's something we don't know, and I think it would be a conflict of interest.
Wu is a financial analyst. Thats also very different. He's also not on his own, but works at the company he reports for. He doesn't advise companies on technical matters, or business direction.
As an American that has lived in much of Europe, the Mid East, Gulf, and few other places thrown in, it is very easy to see how the US media are more than happy to sell their journalistic integrity for a price, for access, or anything of immediate value. Does the Iraq-a-palooza come to mind?
I've seen that in all areas of the world. Many times it's much worse. Many countries have official Tv, radio, newspaper and magazine outlets of their own. We have the Congressional Record.
"So much for him."
Universal translation: I do not agree with him and my opinion is the only one that counts.....
No. The point is that he was placed up on a pedestal. he doesn't belong there.
It's pretty obvious that Nokia's been making mistakes. They've had two years to come up with something new, and they haven't. Their store is the only thing that's new, and it's obviously been rushed.
Name one company that has not made mistakes. Funny how the iBoys are quick to forget that Apple was one paycheck away from being a has been. Things and people fall out of favor all the time.
Every company makes mistakes. But right now, it's Nokia that might lose the ballgame. What's happened in the past to Apple or anyone else doesn't matter here. Nokia is a separate company. What they choose to do has nothing to do with what Apple did years ago.
If you want to bring up Apple as a comeback kid, then it was also very fair for him in the article to say that Nokia was having a "Motorola moment". Nokia may not be the next Apple, they may also be the next Motorola. We have to remember that it can go either way.
You know that from our past talks I think that Nokia will stay in the game. But every year that they fail to keep up makes that possibility less clear.
What the various articles are saying is that Nokia is slipping badly. They have to make it up. They can't take another two or three years. It may be too late.
What they question is the culture. You know how often a company's culture determines how they react to situations. Maybe what Nokia needs is new leadership. Apple got that. Motorola didn't. We can see how they both turned out.
Which way will Nokia go?
"It surely seems that after Apple came out with the app store that Nokia and others waited to see how well it would go before starting on their own. This has given them a shortened timescale to respond. Nokia's store is a prime example of that."
And this is wrong why? Are we forgetting that Apple is looking at the market to see if netbooks or tablets will be a big ticket item? Or is it okay because Apple does it?
I said why there. It's given them much less time to respond. Now they think they must do it quickly. Since coming up with a good model for this takes time, the software takes time, and putting it into place takes time, its difficult to do a good job in just a few months.
If I were still in business, I would have reacted more quickly. I was saying right after Apple opened the App Store that other companies would have to get on the ball quickly or they would have problems matching the quality of Apples'.
I was right. The other stores, so far, have all been criticized for the way they work.
A store for apps which delivers products over the internet in an easy to understand way that also has seamless product purchasing is very difficult to do.
Look at the criticism being given. I'm not the only one saying this. Tell me one other app store that has been given good reviews when compared to Apples'. Not one so far.
As far as a possible tablet/netbook thingie by Apple goes, well, we'll see. Remember that all the phone manufacturers, including Nokia put down the idea of Apple building a successful phone. What happened?
This is part of that culture and leadership thing I mentioned before. Right now, Apple's got it. But they have flops too. Remember the Cube?
By the way, before I get branded a Nokia lover, I also will take delivery of an iPhone in a few days. Fair and balanced.
I know who you are. That's why we can usually have sane discussions.
By the way. If you want to quote me so that my comment remains in the post, you can't use the beginning and end of quote statements. It screws up the quoting. Just use " ". It took a while to fix it.
Nokia's smartphone marketshare:
Q2 2008: 41%
Q1 2009: 38%
Q2 2009: 41%
Take home message: Nokia maintained/increased marketshare despite the introduction of the iPhone 3GS and Palm Pre.
Not bad for a doomed company.
I don't know where you got those numbers from, but the Bloomberg report I linked to shows that Q2 2008, Nokia had a 45.1% smartphone marketshare. Not the 41% you show. That's a drop of 4 points. Quarter to quarter is more difficult to tell because companies come out with new phones so a short period tells us less, unless it's a steady trend.
During the same period, Apple doubled it's marketshare to 10.8%. So the report is correct all along. Apple is quickly gaining on a falling Nokia.
Rim is gaining as well, and has about a 22% marketshare.
I assume AI will amend the headline now that it's proven to be false?
Since the headine is correct, there's no reason to change it.
Having developed for Symbian (and WinMo and Android), I agree with his position. Symbian itself isn't the problem - it's Nokia's retarded UI. The base OS is actually pretty good - and newer than the Linux/BSD foundations of other platforms.
If you think that Symbian can handle all the new media and GUI demands that it's being asked to manage, something that it wasn't designed for, then that's good. But age isn't a determinant of quality, or suitableness.
Do you really think that Nokia should waste massive resources moving to a different OS when they'll still slap their junk UI over the top of it anyway? What problem does that solve exactly?
They have already done so with their new system, Maemo, that will be coming out sometime.
Apple has abandoned the ARM 11 core? Apple's website disagrees with you. The 8GB model still uses an ARM 11 core.
I'm sure you know what I meant. The 3G price was dropped to $99 here. It's still the same phone The new phones have dropped it.
This article on AI is pretty shitty but its no more shitty than most of the other pieces of Nokia "analysis" floating about on the internet. They ignore the facts (profits, market share and smartphone market share all up from Q1) and instead peddle the same myth that Nokia is doomed. It's lazy journalism. The problem is that most commentators live in the US so they don't have first-hand experience with Nokia's products and they don't understand the rock star status of the brand in the rest of the world.
It's interesting that because the analysis is negative, that it's thought to be shitty. If it was positive, then it wouldn't be?
So if the analysis was that even though marketshare for both cheap phones and smartphones are showing year to year drops, and profits plunged again, it means nothing?
Tell us what it means.
What Apple primarily brought with the iPhone 3 OS is a intuitive and easy use interface. You may mock the 3GS video, but Youtube reported a 400% incease because of the 3GS.
I thought they were meant to have brought that with the original iPhone OS?
Also, judging by the majority of videos available on youTube, how many of those additional videos are of anything useful?
Lots of iDiots here.
Nokia simply missed the touch screen revolution, which the LG Prada started...
Now that's hilarious...
Guess which company sells the most touch screen phones. Here's a hint - it does not start with an A.
http://www.dialaphone.co.uk/blog/?p=3005