Wall Street seems to prefer Kremlinology over factual analysis when it comes to the Apple Watch

Posted:
in Apple Watch edited July 2015
Another record-breaking fiscal quarter is in the books for Apple, but the company's overall success is being glossed over by Wall Street analysts and pundits who seem intent on ignoring the actual facts when it comes to Apple Watch sales.




Kremlinology appears to be alive and well on Wall Street, where --?in the wake of Apple's boffo third fiscal quarter -- analysts and financial journalists are dissecting the company's "Other Products" revenue in an attempt to divine how many Apple Watches were sold. Apple lumped the Watch in with the Apple TV, the iPod, and a host of low-dollar plastic adapters to thwart exactly this type of analysis, but that isn't stopping anyone.

Estimates are all over the map: Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster initially thought the category's 49-percent year-over-year jump pointed to just 1.2 million shipped Watches, then upped his guess hours later to 2.5 million. Bloomberg believes the number is 1.9 million. Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty models 2.2 million sales.

Others, like Canalys, believe the number could be as high as 4.2 million.

While Apple refused to provide any details, they did provide some context. Finance chief Luca Maestri said that the Watch outsold the iPad through its first nine weeks, and CEO Tim Cook added that Watch sales during the quarter peaked in June after an April release.
Anyone who still believes Apple sold fewer than 2 million Watches in Q3 is being willfully incorrect.
Apple sold its 2 millionth iPad somewhere around 58 days --?about 8 weeks -- after launch. Number 3 million came on day 80.

This means that anyone who analyzed Tuesday's results and still came back with a Watch shipments number under 2 million is being willfully incorrect. Simple extrapolation of the 2 million / 58 days pace gives us 2.15 million; if sales accelerated significantly in June, the number might go as high as 3 million.

While some may take that as a disappointment, they shouldn't. The entire smartwatch sector shipped an estimated 4.2 million units in the whole of 2014 --?Apple sold around half that number in just 9 weeks, while convincing Beyonce to wear one.

As Asymco's Horace Dediu tweeted earlier this week:

"Most of the mis-representation of Apple Watch comes from the assumption that it's a new product when it's actually a new thing."
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 65
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,824member

    FTC investigating Apples 75% market share in watches; will put

    a halt to monopoly.

  • Reply 2 of 65
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    I see Gene Munster has moved on from TV...now says Apple should buy Tesla. :no:

    http://www.donotlink.com/g12j
  • Reply 3 of 65
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by tmay View Post

     

    FTC investigating Apples 75% market share in watches; will put

    a halt to monopoly.


    Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

  • Reply 4 of 65
    inklinginkling Posts: 731member
    Kremlinology over actual facts? Sorry, but that make no sense. What are the actual sales of Apple watches? Apple's not saying and is bundling that income with other items. That suggests that they're less than spectacular.

    That's not surprising. Apple did its best and what it did is impressive. But a tiny touch screen simply isn't that useful for the vast majority of iPhone users. The UI is too constrained.
  • Reply 5 of 65
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post



    I see Gene Munster has moved on from TV...now says Apple should buy Tesla. image



    http://www.donotlink.com/g12j



    Yeah, that seems to be a complete misunderstanding of Apple. If they really are going to develop a car as a major product category, then the last thing they would do is buy someone else's design for it.

  • Reply 6 of 65
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,924member
    inkling wrote: »
    Kremlinology over actual facts? Sorry, but that make no sense. What are the actual sales of Apple watches? Apple's not saying and is bundling that income with other items. That suggests that they're less than spectacular.

    No it doesn't as Apple said in the Fall it wouldn't release numbers. That said, analysts have been guessing and Applr did say it sold more than the iPad in its launch qtr.
  • Reply 7 of 65

    Too much focus on Apple Watch people. It's APPLE stock NOT Apple Watch stock. Wall Street has once again proven they are idiots. These clowns couldn't predict their way out of a paper bags. 

  • Reply 8 of 65
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,824member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by TheWhiteFalcon View Post

     

    Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?


    Guards are a fungible commodity; money almost always talks, but sometimes a little sex goes a long way.

     

    "No one could possibly imagine prison personnel helping prisoners escape".

  • Reply 9 of 65
    bubffmbubffm Posts: 24member
    Analysts are farts, Lots of wind, little content, smelling bad.
  • Reply 10 of 65
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member

    Yeah, that seems to be a complete misunderstanding of Apple. If they really are going to develop a car as a major product category, then the last thing they would do is buy someone else's design for it.

    Exactly. It makes no sense. But Munster is grabbing at straws now because his TV predictions haven't materialized. Pretty soon he'll be saying Apple should buy Netflix. :no:
  • Reply 11 of 65
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    inkling wrote: »
    Kremlinology over actual facts? Sorry, but that make no sense. What are the actual sales of Apple watches? Apple's not saying and is bundling that income with other items. That suggests that they're less than spectacular.

    That's not surprising. Apple did its best and what it did is impressive. But a tiny touch screen simply isn't that useful for the vast majority of iPhone users. The UI is too constrained.

    So when Apple said last fall they weren't going to disclose ?Watch as its own product line in financial reporting they knew sales were going to be less than spectacular? :no:
  • Reply 12 of 65
    Funny how Appleinsider staff keeps whining about negative press based on no facts by pumping out overly positive fanboy press with a similar lack of facts.

    Simple truth: Apple hasn't released any actual sales numbers, so ALL articles (positive OR negative) are based solely on the views of the author. But go ahead an continue drinking the kool-aid folks.
  • Reply 13 of 65
    Funny how Appleinsider staff keeps whining about negative press based on no facts by pumping out overly positive fanboy press with a similar lack of facts.

    Simple truth: Apple hasn't released any actual sales numbers, so ALL articles (positive OR negative) are based solely on the views of the author. But go ahead an continue drinking the kool-aid folks.

    "This means that anyone who analyzed Tuesday's results and still came back with a Watch shipments number under 2 million is being willfully incorrect. Simple extrapolation of the 2 million / 58 days pace gives us 2.15 million"

    Did you even read the article? These look like facts to me...or do you really consider this opinion?
  • Reply 14 of 65
    Too much focus on Apple Watch people. It's APPLE stock NOT Apple Watch stock. Wall Street has once again proven they are idiots. These clowns couldn't predict their way out of a paper bags. 

    Supposedly, AAPL tanked because the iPhone sales were lower than predicted by the Wall Street clown posse. Apple is being punished for analysts being wrong.

    Nostradamus would be jealous of them.
  • Reply 15 of 65
    haggarhaggar Posts: 1,568member

    Can't have "factual analysis" of Apple Watch when Apple refuses to provide the exact numbers.

  • Reply 16 of 65
    thedbathedba Posts: 689member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by woodycurmudgeon View Post



    Funny how Appleinsider staff keeps whining about negative press based on no facts by pumping out overly positive fanboy press with a similar lack of facts.



    Simple truth: Apple hasn't released any actual sales numbers, so ALL articles (positive OR negative) are based solely on the views of the author. But go ahead an continue drinking the kool-aid folks.



    Fact is the Apple watch has not lived up to Wall street's numbers, not Apple's.  Therefore Apple stock is going down because of that.

    Wall street disregards the other fact that Apple went against every other smartphone maker's trend and sold more than last year's quarter.

    Their profits account for what, 92% of the industry? Wow! 

    They may also be punishing AAPL because the iPhone accounts for most of its revenues. 

    Again makes no sense, since Google's revenues are basically "Search". That's it! This is but one example.

    That's where Kremlinology comes from. 

    Wall street is no different than a casino.  Give them vapourware to speculate on.  Apple just won't play that game.

  • Reply 17 of 65
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post





    Supposedly, AAPL tanked because the iPhone sales were lower than predicted by the Wall Street clown posse. Apple is being punished for analysts being wrong.



    Nostradamus would be jealous of them.

    Could it possibly be that they raised their estimates so that their friends could short the stock when results come in under their inflated numbers? I have no idea but something smells with the amount the stock went down.

  • Reply 18 of 65
    airnerdairnerd Posts: 693member
    Well, it would be really simple for Apple to put all of this guesstimating to bed. But only if they care what the analysts are saying or if shareholders lose enough that they force Apple to disclose the numbers.

    Until then, let em guess. What's the harm? Isn't AI pimping this estimates miss and stock drop as a "buying opportunity"?
  • Reply 19 of 65
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,824member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post





    Supposedly, AAPL tanked because the iPhone sales were lower than predicted by the Wall Street clown posse. Apple is being punished for analysts being wrong.



    Nostradamus would be jealous of them.

    Nah.

     

    I heard it was the Chinese economy growth slowing.

     

    Pick anything

  • Reply 20 of 65
    thedba wrote: »
    Fact is the Apple watch has not lived up to Wall street's numbers, not Apple's.  Therefore Apple stock is going down because of that.

    Stop posting nonsense.
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