iPhone XS and XS Max sales are 'weak' says historically bearish Apple analyst
Rosenblatt Securities' Jun Zhang, who was perhaps the leading skeptic of the iPhone X and stuck with that bearish outlook even as it was clear the 2017 phone was a hit, weighs in again on iPhone XS and XS Max, with the same take.
A new note from Zhang, releaesd Monday, called iPhone XS opening weekend sales "weak," while those of the larger iPhone XS Max were stronger. Zhang continues to view Apple's stock as overpiced, maintaining a $200 price target that's well below where the stock has been for the last two months.
"Our channel checks indicate iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max weekend sales are higher than iPhone X weekend sales," Zhang writes. "We believe this is mainly due to a better production ramp for the iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max. However, our research suggests the iPhone XS order pipeline is very weak, resulting in leftover inventory of the iPhone XS. We continue to believe total iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max sales will be lower than total iPhone X sales over a two-month period."
"Overall, we believe iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max weekend sales were weak," Zhang continued. "Based on retail sales data and our estimates of production, we estimate a combined total of ~7 million units sold over the weekend. Our research suggests the iPhone XS max sold out over the weekend, while the iPhone XS still had some inventory left in various retail channels. We believe iPhone XS Max sales were about 4-5x iPhone XS sales over the weekend."
Zhang also predicted an iPhone production cut for the second half of this year, from 15 million units to 10 million units.
However, as AppleInsider's Daniel Eran Dilger showed last week, Zhang and his "channel checks" have often been very wrong about iPhone demand in the recent past, most notably about the iPhone X. He was also one of many analysts whose unwarranted skepticism about that model's performance was frequently parroted in the financial and tech press throughout the past year. And Zhang's argument -- that wait times for preorders is an accurate measure of overall demand -- is a faulty one.
Zhang had stated, prior to the release of the new iPhones, that preorders were "weaker" than those of the iPhone X in 2017. The iPhone X, despite its higher price point, went on to outsell all other iPhone models in each quarter since its release.
A new note from Zhang, releaesd Monday, called iPhone XS opening weekend sales "weak," while those of the larger iPhone XS Max were stronger. Zhang continues to view Apple's stock as overpiced, maintaining a $200 price target that's well below where the stock has been for the last two months.
"Our channel checks indicate iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max weekend sales are higher than iPhone X weekend sales," Zhang writes. "We believe this is mainly due to a better production ramp for the iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max. However, our research suggests the iPhone XS order pipeline is very weak, resulting in leftover inventory of the iPhone XS. We continue to believe total iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max sales will be lower than total iPhone X sales over a two-month period."
"Overall, we believe iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max weekend sales were weak," Zhang continued. "Based on retail sales data and our estimates of production, we estimate a combined total of ~7 million units sold over the weekend. Our research suggests the iPhone XS max sold out over the weekend, while the iPhone XS still had some inventory left in various retail channels. We believe iPhone XS Max sales were about 4-5x iPhone XS sales over the weekend."
Zhang also predicted an iPhone production cut for the second half of this year, from 15 million units to 10 million units.
However, as AppleInsider's Daniel Eran Dilger showed last week, Zhang and his "channel checks" have often been very wrong about iPhone demand in the recent past, most notably about the iPhone X. He was also one of many analysts whose unwarranted skepticism about that model's performance was frequently parroted in the financial and tech press throughout the past year. And Zhang's argument -- that wait times for preorders is an accurate measure of overall demand -- is a faulty one.
Zhang had stated, prior to the release of the new iPhones, that preorders were "weaker" than those of the iPhone X in 2017. The iPhone X, despite its higher price point, went on to outsell all other iPhone models in each quarter since its release.
Comments
Would you ever trust a broker who tells you "I recommend you buying this stock that I think will go down 10%"?
All these "analysts" are nothing but front by stock traders/hedge funds to create artificial short and buy back strategy. Their opinion has nothing to deal with facts. And you bet none of them has their own money in the game.
I've never seen a product launch quite like it and I would hardly characterize it as "weak"!
I agree that many securities analysts have their own agenda in reporting factual sales data.
My two cents...
The excuse may be journalism reports all sides but to let themselves be used to propagate stock manipulation? What about spreading lies, things that are clearly obvious lies?
Maybe there are a few shorters on staff eh? Talk about being in bed with the enemy...
I am more worried about Apple’s reliance on Samsung exclusively for the OLED display and camera module according to the Verge.
I’ve often wondered if they should buy a Camera company like Nikon or Leica.
Hopefully they are also pursuing solid state batteries.
None of the staff owns Apple stock, deal in Apple stock, or are "shorters."
You mean like they always do? Of course Apple makes lots of things early on and starts to ramp down production as they approach the new model release. He's not saying in May, if Apple reduces production of the year old models in September he will still claim to be right.
It's people like this that make me not trust the market. Never have, never will.