iPhone XS and XS Max sales are 'weak' says historically bearish Apple analyst

Posted:
in iPhone
Rosenblatt Securities' Jun Zhang, who was perhaps the leading skeptic of the iPhone X and stuck with that bearish outlook even as it was clear the 2017 phone was a hit, weighs in again on iPhone XS and XS Max, with the same take.

iPhone XS


A new note from Zhang, releaesd Monday, called iPhone XS opening weekend sales "weak," while those of the larger iPhone XS Max were stronger. Zhang continues to view Apple's stock as overpiced, maintaining a $200 price target that's well below where the stock has been for the last two months.

"Our channel checks indicate iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max weekend sales are higher than iPhone X weekend sales," Zhang writes. "We believe this is mainly due to a better production ramp for the iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max. However, our research suggests the iPhone XS order pipeline is very weak, resulting in leftover inventory of the iPhone XS. We continue to believe total iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max sales will be lower than total iPhone X sales over a two-month period."

"Overall, we believe iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max weekend sales were weak," Zhang continued. "Based on retail sales data and our estimates of production, we estimate a combined total of ~7 million units sold over the weekend. Our research suggests the iPhone XS max sold out over the weekend, while the iPhone XS still had some inventory left in various retail channels. We believe iPhone XS Max sales were about 4-5x iPhone XS sales over the weekend."

Zhang also predicted an iPhone production cut for the second half of this year, from 15 million units to 10 million units.

However, as AppleInsider's Daniel Eran Dilger showed last week, Zhang and his "channel checks" have often been very wrong about iPhone demand in the recent past, most notably about the iPhone X. He was also one of many analysts whose unwarranted skepticism about that model's performance was frequently parroted in the financial and tech press throughout the past year. And Zhang's argument -- that wait times for preorders is an accurate measure of overall demand -- is a faulty one.

Zhang had stated, prior to the release of the new iPhones, that preorders were "weaker" than those of the iPhone X in 2017. The iPhone X, despite its higher price point, went on to outsell all other iPhone models in each quarter since its release.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 23
    Analysts: you can continue making stupid announcements like these and shorting AAPL. It doesn't work. You are the ones losing big on it.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 2 of 23
    I used to think AAPL stock manipulation was just conspiracy theory but now I am a firm believer,. 

    Would you ever trust a broker who tells you "I recommend you buying this stock that I think will go down 10%"? 

    All these "analysts" are nothing but front by stock traders/hedge funds to create artificial short and buy back strategy.  Their opinion has nothing to deal with facts.  And you bet none of them has their own money in the game. 
    pscooter63xamaxjbdragonclaire1watto_cobra
  • Reply 3 of 23
    We heard these same comments last year and as usual they got it ALL WRONG!
    jbdragonbb-15claire1watto_cobra
  • Reply 4 of 23
    BebeBebe Posts: 120member
    Oh boy, here we go again!
    olsclaire1watto_cobra
  • Reply 5 of 23
    What research? And what “channels” are they checking? This happens every f—king year. And every year its wrong. The stock is flat today so obviously no one is paying attention to it.
    jbdragonclaire1
  • Reply 6 of 23
    I was in the Apple Store on Regent Street, in London on Saturday and the crowds buying iPhones and Apple watches were massive ! 

    I've never seen a product launch quite like it and I would hardly characterize it as "weak"! 

    I agree that many securities analysts have their own agenda in reporting factual sales data.

    My two cents...
    xamaxbb-15Rayz2016olsclaire1badmonkwatto_cobra
  • Reply 7 of 23
    I went to Apple store w my son just picking up an apple case and the crowds are all standing w apple sales person...we went in got the stuff and went out...you call that weak?? I don’t know what school or diploma mail did you came from?
    badmonkwatto_cobra
  • Reply 8 of 23
    I used to think AAPL stock manipulation was just conspiracy theory but now I am a firm believer,. 

    Would you ever trust a broker who tells you "I recommend you buying this stock that I think will go down 10%"? 

    All these "analysts" are nothing but front by stock traders/hedge funds to create artificial short and buy back strategy.  Their opinion has nothing to deal with facts.  And you bet none of them has their own money in the game. 
    I don't usually comment on all these stock price stuff, because it is not my cup of tea. But reading the articles in AI, it is very clear to me that AAPL stock manipulation is real. And just by reading few lines of information, it becomes very clear that stock manipulation is going on in those specific scenarios. This article is a clear example of that.
    jbdragonwatto_cobra
  • Reply 9 of 23
    This is an S year. It shouldn't be expected to be a massive sales hit. 
  • Reply 10 of 23
    As of now (10;25 am CT), S&P is down .3% while AAPL is up .86%.  So Jun Zhang customers should be happy dumping the stock at below Friday closing price on opening today /heavy sarcasm. 
    jbdragonwatto_cobra
  • Reply 11 of 23
    This guy is a jack-ass!
    albegarcwatto_cobra
  • Reply 12 of 23
    xamaxxamax Posts: 130member
    What baffles me is why AppleInsider acts as loudspeaker amplifying the BS these moronic anal-ists vomit in their stock manipulation games.

    The excuse may be journalism reports all sides but to let themselves be used to propagate stock manipulation? What about spreading lies, things that are clearly obvious lies?

    Maybe there are a few shorters on staff eh? Talk about being in bed with the enemy...
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 13 of 23
    It's quite ironic that Zhang's already forecasting demand when the lowest price (and possibly most popular) new iPhone, the iPhone XR, isn't even available for pre-order until October 19th. Some of the tech pundits are already listing it as the most exciting. Here's a report from Marques Brownlee from the 2018 iPhone launch event:  
    ronnwatto_cobra
  • Reply 14 of 23
    I used to think AAPL stock manipulation was just conspiracy theory but now I am a firm believer,. 

    Would you ever trust a broker who tells you "I recommend you buying this stock that I think will go down 10%"? 

    All these "analysts" are nothing but front by stock traders/hedge funds to create artificial short and buy back strategy.  Their opinion has nothing to deal with facts.  And you bet none of them has their own money in the game. 
    Every individual acts in their own self-interest all the time. This is a given. Having said that, it should be understood that we are all “manipulators” in some sense.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 15 of 23
    k2kwk2kw Posts: 1,756member
    kkqd1337 said:
    This is an S year. It shouldn't be expected to be a massive sales hit. 
    Wall Street expects hit after hit year after year because the plug in numbers into their spreadsheets that say 10% annual revenue and profit growth YOY.

    I am more worried about Apple’s reliance on Samsung exclusively for the OLED display and camera module according to the Verge.   

    I’ve often wondered if they should buy a Camera company like Nikon or Leica.
    Hopefully they are also pursuing solid state batteries.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 16 of 23
    Mike WuertheleMike Wuerthele Posts: 4,634administrator
    xamax said:
    What baffles me is why AppleInsider acts as loudspeaker amplifying the BS these moronic anal-ists vomit in their stock manipulation games.

    The excuse may be journalism reports all sides but to let themselves be used to propagate stock manipulation? What about spreading lies, things that are clearly obvious lies?

    Maybe there are a few shorters on staff eh? Talk about being in bed with the enemy...
    I feel like you may need to re-read the piece.

    None of the staff owns Apple stock, deal in Apple stock, or are "shorters."
    edited September 2018 muthuk_vanalingamwatto_cobra
  • Reply 17 of 23
    Zhang also predicted an iPhone production cut for the second half of this year,
    You mean like they always do? Of course Apple makes lots of things early on and starts to ramp down production as they approach the new model release. He's not saying in May, if Apple reduces production of the year old models in September he will still claim to be right.

    It's people like this that make me not trust the market. Never have, never will.
    edited September 2018 watto_cobra
  • Reply 18 of 23
    I don't usually comment on all these stock price stuff, because it is not my cup of tea. But reading the articles in AI, it is very clear to me that AAPL stock manipulation is real. And just by reading few lines of information, it becomes very clear that stock manipulation is going on in those specific scenarios. This article is a clear example of that.
    APPL is the most shorted stock on Wall St.
    What do you expect from these people. These so called Analysts are paid to put out briefings like this.
    They need to be called out and exposed for what they are, agents of the army of APPL Shorters.

    claire1watto_cobra
  • Reply 19 of 23
    Rayz2016Rayz2016 Posts: 4,631member
    k2kw said:
    kkqd1337 said:
    This is an S year. It shouldn't be expected to be a massive sales hit. 
    Wall Street expects hit after hit year after year because the plug in numbers into their spreadsheets that say 10% annual revenue and profit growth YOY.

    I am more worried about Apple’s reliance on Samsung exclusively for the OLED display and camera module according to the Verge.   

    I’ve often wondered if they should buy a Camera company like Nikon or Leica.
    Hopefully they are also pursuing solid state batteries.
    There are pretty strong indications that LG will also be supplying OLED screens for the new phones. 


    watto_cobra
  • Reply 20 of 23
    If sales are so weak, why are there 14 stores within an hour of me and none of them have any XS/XS Max available?
    watto_cobra
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