danox

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danox
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  • TSMC's US factory shows the limits of reshoring, tariffs, and corporate welfare

    tht said:
    If it is an actual picture of the facility, it has solar PV over the parking lot. Love that! Hopefully they have tens of MWHr level batteries too. Solar over parking lots should be required all over the USA. Everything in the desert areas of Arizona needs to be painted white or high albedo as well. Not a pleasant place to be during the heat season.

    I don't see this notion of owning this supply chain as viable anymore. So, the argument is moot.

    30 years ago, the economics were such that it was possible. Development costs for fabs and customer bases were sufficiently low such that it could be done. Multiple micron-level fabs existed, that served that needs of a mainframe market or other small niche. Intel was ahead with leading edge fabs, but small companies could follow 6 to 12 months behind them with a near equivalent fab. AMD had its own fabs. Didn't Texas Instruments have its own fabs? TI! Before they gave up. IBM amazingly held on for a long while just serving their mainframe market.

    Today, you need to sell into the entire population of the Earth to support the development of a leading edge, Angstrom level fab. It's Highlander rules, where there can only be one. It costs so much to develop a leading edge fab now, you need to have billions of chips shipped from your fab to make it worthwhile. To do that, you need to play a game of geo-politics, carving a path such that the chips coming out of the fab can be used everywhere in every nation.

    If you don't do that, you will not get enough revenue to pay for the development of the fab. So, the notion that one nation can own the supply chain while serving the enter world is a fantasy. It's not even a fantasy. It's like saying gravity is optional or energy isn't conserved. The economics aren't going to work out.


    Intel, IBM, Xerox, Motorola Schaumburg, Illinois, and US Steel failed due to management changes, the inability to recognize the importance of long-term product iteration and the need for ongoing research and development.

    One other problem in America is the blame game, where production workers are blamed despite management’s bad decisions, which is another on going long term issue.

    In America, MBAs, accountants, financial/bankers, and lawyers often end up running companies, especially in specialized fields like technology, pharmaceuticals, and high-end manufacturing. However, these elements should not be allowed to make strategic decisions or to run such companies, support yes run the company. Hell no….

    Another big element is the time it’s gonna take to turn things around and no one in America wants to hear it but it’s probably overall two decades or more which is going to be a big problem in America because that’s stretched over five administrations oh boy……

    neoncatsconosciuto
  • US officials concerned over Apple's AI partnership plans in China

    Trump to Walmart you can eat the tariff cost….. It just keeps getting richer, or should I say the American consumer/taxpayer is just getting poorer.
    londorgatorguyjibronn9secondkox2CloudTalkinneoncatspliff monkey
  • US officials concerned over Apple's AI partnership plans in China

    anthogag said:
    Apple is doing what it needs to to be a player China’s market. 

    The US government should not take allies for granted and work with allies on AI. Part of China’s government’s AI success would be alienating America from its allies for AI research and development. 
    But should Apple be developing tools to help the Communist Party of China harm its own citizens? "Following Chinese law" is not good enough.


    The world will continue progressing without the USA. Nixon and Kissinger’s visit to China emphasized the importance of global interaction and business. America’s current response is to retreat and blame China, Russia, and the EU. However, this approach will only lead to further decline and backwardness.

    Currently, some in the United States (White House) are overreacting due to perceived setbacks. However, the only viable response to challenges posed by China, Russia, and the European Union is to maintain a belief in the principles of mathematics, science, and education not attacking some of the best colleges in the world in the United States.

    Instead of seeking scapegoats in the United States or the world, which has been exemplified by the UK’s Brexit approach, it is crucial to recognize that isolating America will only lead to further economic decline and a diminished global standing. China plays the long game and they do it without making a fuss the opposite of the ugly American approach.

    See Intel, Xerox, IBM and US Steel for what happens when you retreat from competition and hide into yourself and stop iterating. You can’t hide from competition you have to meet it straight on over time and it doesn’t mean sanctioning, tariffs and the outright bullying, or the denial of science, math, and education when the answers are not what you want you can’t make it up à la maga Trump style.

    jrfunknubuslondordewmespliff monkeyneoncat
  • Japan moves closer to requiring third-party app stores

    So there will be reciprocal access to Sony and Nintendo online stores huh?  :smile: 
    elijahgneoncatdarelrex
  • 'Price is Right' contestants nowhere close to Apple Vision Pro's astronomical price

    CarmB said:
    danox said:
    A M2 MacBook Pro plus a R1 SOC, Lidar sensor plus 6 other sensors, 13 cameras, 2 Micro‑OLED screens no the Vision Pro is not going to be less 2 thousand dollars anytime soon… Most have unrealistic expectations that also applies to expecting AI to be Robbie the robot (permanently tied to Google’s super computers back home undercover except Google won’t be forth with with that fact)….

    https://www.apple.com/apple-vision-pro/specs/ Note: the next generation probably will have a Apple C1 or C2 modem too.

    There is a way to lower cost and weight. Develop a version that is tethered to an Apple device like a MacBook or desktop Mac, of which there are millions in use. Put this less expensive version out not to replace the untethered Vision Pro but to provide a more affordable compliment. For one thing, Apple has decided to call the current version the Apple Vision Pro and not the Apple Vision. So the next Vision Pro continues at a high niche price point and Apple launches a tethered Vision, minus the Pro, for the masses. To continue on the basis of a standalone device requires substantial compromises in order to check in at more palatable price. As such requiring an external Apple device for such a product makes more sense. 

    I think it could be cheaper in the second generation somewhere between $2000 and $2500 but it’s unrealistic to expect something under $2000 even for a stripped down version. I don’t think it’s gonna be less than a base MacBook Pro (with three modest upgrades) or a M4 iPad Pro (with similar modest upgrades).

     Both are under or in the neighborhood of $2000-$2500. Look at the bill of materials. It just isn’t gonna be that cheap (the Vision Pro has to many state of the art sensors/screens and a new secondary R1 SOC along with a possible C series Apple modem in the future).
    neoncatwatto_cobra