tmay

waveparticle said:

wood1208 said:

US being free society and support such principles; US can not win against China as today's or tomorrow's China unless something big change happens to PRC party for better for world.

China has a long term strategy to dominate the world commerce which Western,Asian countries failed to understand. Unless rest of the world stops importing from China, Chinese made products and not sell energy and critical products to China; China will continue to get stronger and non-Chinese companies will be robbed in China from there products, market share and pushed out of China. Than, Chinese companies will make the same products at cheaper price and sell to domestic market and to the rest of the world and get richer everyday. That is how China will dominate the world and there is nothing US,Europe and non-China countries can do.

LOL Your description reads exactly like what China experienced from the Western world before CCP took over control of China. 

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

melgross said:

waveparticle said:

"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones," 

The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world. 

No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.

Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact. 

It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users. 

https://www.phonearena.com/news/double-the-storage-on-your-huawei-phone-for-a-small-fee_id138452

256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.

The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either. 

When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down. 

Almost a perfect storm. 

And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...

It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.

With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly. 

Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.

Not even under sanctions. 

Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models). 

First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China. 

https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prAP51074723

HarmonyOS is now on 700 million devices. 

https://www.chinainternetwatch.com/43109/huawei-harmonyos-devices/#:~:text=Currently, more than 700 million,59 billion times per day.


HarmonyOS NEXT is coming (zero Android code):

https://sparrowsnews.com/2023/08/07/harmonyos-next-hands-on-experience/amp/


The HarmonyOS kernel just received the highest security certification available: 

https://embeddedcomputing.com/technology/security/iec-iso-other-standards/huawei-achieves-eal6-isoiec-15408-standard

It had to write its own ERP software from scratch. An absolutely gargantuan achievement:

https://techwireasia.com/2023/04/huawei-develops-meta-erp/

It has just supposedly broken through a major 5G choke point (BAW-RF filter mass production):

https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20230811PD215/5g-china-huawei.html

It has invested heavily in EDA toolchains and supposedly broken through that choke point too:

https://www.theregister.com/2023/03/24/huawei_eda_14nm_chips/

... 

I could go on and on with examples. 

I haven't even touched the HarmonyOS 4 automotive solutions that have just been announced. 

https://www.myfixguide.com/huawei-luxeed-ev-images-revealed/

Or its cloud advances:

https://technode.global/prnasia/20-fold-growth-in-4-years-huawei-cloud-aims-to-have-the-longest-running-and-fastest-growing-cloud-presence-in-southeast-asia/

As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones. 

For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted. 

This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:

https://jw.ijiwei.com/n/812998

Now five new phones have just gone through certification and all of them are reported to have 5G.

Apple is going to have a bit more competition to deal with going forward even though it currently still benefits from politically imposed advantages. 

As an aside, 

https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/eu-considers-mandatory-ban-using-huawei-build-5g-ft-2023-06-07/

You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?

Yeah! An aside. 

Literally nothing to do with any of this. 

Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle. 

Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.

Try to stick with the technology/market angle.

Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that. 

You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovvQdCmnCLo&list=RDCMUCsy9I56PY3IngCf_VGjunMQ&start_radio=1

More to the point, China's economy is stalled.

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

melgross said:

waveparticle said:

"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones," 

The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world. 

No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.

Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact. 

It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users. 

https://www.phonearena.com/news/double-the-storage-on-your-huawei-phone-for-a-small-fee_id138452

256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.

The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either. 

When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down. 

Almost a perfect storm. 

And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...

It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.

With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly. 

Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.

Not even under sanctions. 

Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models). 

First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China. 

https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prAP51074723

HarmonyOS is now on 700 million devices. 

https://www.chinainternetwatch.com/43109/huawei-harmonyos-devices/#:~:text=Currently, more than 700 million,59 billion times per day.


HarmonyOS NEXT is coming (zero Android code):

https://sparrowsnews.com/2023/08/07/harmonyos-next-hands-on-experience/amp/


The HarmonyOS kernel just received the highest security certification available: 

https://embeddedcomputing.com/technology/security/iec-iso-other-standards/huawei-achieves-eal6-isoiec-15408-standard

It had to write its own ERP software from scratch. An absolutely gargantuan achievement:

https://techwireasia.com/2023/04/huawei-develops-meta-erp/

It has just supposedly broken through a major 5G choke point (BAW-RF filter mass production):

https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20230811PD215/5g-china-huawei.html

It has invested heavily in EDA toolchains and supposedly broken through that choke point too:

https://www.theregister.com/2023/03/24/huawei_eda_14nm_chips/

... 

I could go on and on with examples. 

I haven't even touched the HarmonyOS 4 automotive solutions that have just been announced. 

https://www.myfixguide.com/huawei-luxeed-ev-images-revealed/

Or its cloud advances:

https://technode.global/prnasia/20-fold-growth-in-4-years-huawei-cloud-aims-to-have-the-longest-running-and-fastest-growing-cloud-presence-in-southeast-asia/

As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones. 

For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted. 

This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:

https://jw.ijiwei.com/n/812998

Now five new phones have just gone through certification and all of them are reported to have 5G.

Apple is going to have a bit more competition to deal with going forward even though it currently still benefits from politically imposed advantages. 

As an aside, 

https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/eu-considers-mandatory-ban-using-huawei-build-5g-ft-2023-06-07/

You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?

Yeah! An aside. 

Literally nothing to do with any of this. 

Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle. 

Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.

Try to stick with the technology/market angle.

Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that. 

You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovvQdCmnCLo&list=RDCMUCsy9I56PY3IngCf_VGjunMQ&start_radio=1

More to the point, China's economy is stalled.

Wow!

You thought that was a valid technology statement? 

He made a huge mistake that shows he doesn't know what he's talking about.

Really, and what would that "huge mistake" be?

No matter how you yourself look at it, China is three generations behind the West in semiconductors, and even reverse engineering as much Western tech as possible, they aren't going to be able to catch up very fast, if ever. 

For me, it's even obvious that the EU's France and Germany, whose trade is so intertwined with China, are going to have to begin pulling back. 

Thanks for confirming you didn't see it either. It was a simple mistake to make but the thing is, in these cases, if you're going to make big claims on YouTube or anywhere with a big potential audience, you really should be dotting your 'I's. 

He implied that the US didn't want China to best it in semicoductors. 

That's not a claim anyone should be making 'unqualified' because it's very hard to tackle without qualification.

But he did it. And so did you! 

Let's rewind a bit. 

It was you who said China would take a very long time to advance on process nodes. 

When TechInsights picked up on SMIC's manufacturing of 7nm node chipsets the key takeaway was NOT that it was an expensive, low yield effort. 

It sent shockwaves through the US and the EU for a different reason and that was clearly spelled out in the report.

The key takeaway was that NO EU or US company had anything to match it. 

Let that sink in for a while. 

They were already behind! 

Your man from YouTube quite literally dropped the ball on that. 

The US is NOT the world. The US is majorly, heavily and utterly dependent on non-US technologies from places like Holland and Taiwan. 

And even if a tiny percentage of that final machinery does contain a sliver of US based technology, weaponising it is only going to backfire and I have yet to see anyone outside the US administration even say the contrary. 

The other point they raised was that China had 'officially' gone from 14nm to 7nm in just TWO YEARS.

Let me be frank. The news really put the cat amongst the pigeons. 

And then I was lucky enough to read a separate industry report that pointed out that if China were to refocus all its current capacity onto 7nm, it would outstrip TSMC and Samsung - combined! 

But the technology aspect doesn't end there. Have you heard of Industry 4.0?

The so called fourth industrial revolution? 

Completely reliant on cutting edge ICT roll outs in industry - ALL INDUSTRY. 

Remind me where the US is with 5G. 5.5G. 6G.

You see? They are nowhere once again and Industry 4.0 is the future.

Your man thinks the US must stop China getting ahead but in key areas, that ship has sailed. 

More technology insight for you. 

How much of the world's chipset output is on the cutting edge nodes? 

Come on, give it a stab? 

I think you know where I'm going here. 

The world ticks by on older, more mature and above all, cheaper nodes.

That has always been the case. 

Right now, you could even argue that demand for the cutting edge nodes is slowing too. We already had a new iPhone with 'last year's chipset' and we already know prices of the latest nodes are on the up. 

Let me throw something at the wall and later this year or next, we'll see if it sticks. 

I've been saying for a couple of years now that Huawei's first move to avoid sanctions regarding chip fabrication would probably involve Chip stacking. 

There is a LOT of evidence out there pointing to that. But let's be clear. The goal is not to best a 3nm chip. The goal is to get a product that is free of sanctions onto the market - and then to make it better (quickly!). 

Believe me. The semi conductor association of America wrote to the White House on numerous occasions pleading for careful sanctions for a reason. For a very good reason. 

It depends on China in a large part, for the revenues it needs for future R&D. 

The White House even invited them over recently. 

Cutting China off is bread for today and hunger for tomorrow. 

So your man on YouTube failed to spot what was going on with technology. 

Qualcomm said at its recent earnings call that it would see no new 'material revenue' from Huawei going forward. 

That's not great for US business. We already know it will lose Apple at some point too. 

China has literally been forced to go it alone and is now having to accelerate those plans and it's doing it from home. 

South Korea recently went on record (at a very high level) saying that it basically should not be asked to take sides as it would be damaging for everyone. 

Anyway. One last question for your internet man. 

How far away does he think the 'post silicon era' is and who will lead in that? 

Answers on a postcard to the White House please!

"get a better product free of sanctions into the market, and the make it better (quickly)

Good luck with that, and a "post silicon era" that favors China, good luck with that as well.

China has peaked economically, and that isn't hyperbole, that's fact, and with their rapidly aging population and huge youth unemployment, good luck on transitioning to a consumer driven economy.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/14/china-economy-new-loans-fall-property-fears-low-consumer-sentiment-.html#

First point is a given. China is already ahead of the US in that aspect. No luck involved. Hence the panic. Huawei will just plough development resources into it. That has been happening since sanctions started. 

We will probably see the first small steps in real products before year end. 

Huawei filed for 30 chiplet related patents in 2017. By 2022 that number had risen to above 900.

Second point is unknown currently but the takeaway is that once it happens, the lithography choke points will vanish.

We already know for example, that China has a big interest in photonics and guess who knows a thing or two about that?

Another point, that I left out for reasons of length, is that you can be sure that de-Americanisation has been underway since Trump got the snowball moving. That is a given too. The US made it's technology unreliable in the international market space because they wraponised it. 

That takes between three and five years to accomplish according to analysts. Guess where we are now on that time frame? 

My little pet interest is in the chip stacking area, though. The underlying idea and technology is nothing new. 

Some say yields are low and therefore costs are higher. Others point to Huawei patents on chip packaging technologies that supposedly make the process much cheaper. 

There is no doubt at all in my mind that they will run with it at first, no matter the cost (they have no option) but if they can produce 'flagship like performance' on older nodes using new technologies it might actually lead to a notable pricing advantage in the market. 

What might that do to Apple and Qualcomm if they make the technology available to other Chinese brands? 

You've been attempting to spin this as a win for Huawei; it isn't. It's a stopgap measure, and consumers will be advised of that. It might sell in China, but it won't be competitive elsewhere. But it's delusional to think that other Chinese brands will adopt this technology, as if there is even enough "faux 7nm" capacity available to satisfy Huawei's needs.

Meanwhile, Qualcomm is in fact diversifying, so I doubt that a slowing market for SOC's is any surprise.

Huawei was never competitive with Apple, so Huawei's "comeback" is just another dilution of Android OS ASP, in an attempt to increase marketshare.

Huawei overtook Apple in unit sales. It overtook Samsung in unit sales. It did it without access to one of the largest smartphone markets on the planet. Yet, It overtook the market on practically every level.

It was competitive to levels Apple can only dream of. 

Battery tech. 
Charging tech. 
Camera tech 
Wifi
Bluetooth
5G
Earbuds
TVs
Smartscreens
Book readers
Cars
All aspects of AI:
Training and inference 
Frameworks
Hardware accelerator cards 
AI models
PV
ICT
Cloud
Fintech
Aviation 
Ports mining 

... 

And a list so long it would make your nose bleed. 

Please don't try to say it wasn't competitive when Apple only resides in a tiny CE bubble. 

I don't spin anything. I'm very realistic. 

Huawei overtook Apple in unit sales. It overtook Samsung in unit sales.

When Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo lands in Beijing for an expected visit next week she’s likely to hear an unprecedented request from her hosts: Help us with our struggling economy.

Raimondo’s long-anticipated visit coincides with a worsening downturn in China’s financial health marked by plunging exports and foreign investment as well as soaring youth unemployment. The latest data suggest that the once-unstoppable economic juggernaut has finally hit a serious pothole.

That’s a diagnosis that both President Joe Biden and Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping agree on. Xi warned his senior leadership last month in notably frank terms that “China‘s economy is facing new difficulties and challenges.” Biden piled on earlier this month, hinting that China’s economic woes could pose domestic stability risks for Xi.

“China is in trouble,” Biden told donors at a Democratic Party fundraiser in Utah. “They have got some problems — that’s not good, because when bad folks have problems, they do bad things.”

waveparticle said:

melgross said:

waveparticle said:

"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones," 

The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world. 

No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.

No! The fact of the truth is the decoupling started when Huawei is being totally banned by US. 

tham said:

lorca2770 said:

Please, correct me.
I have been following Apple since 1984 (Mac 128 ߘꩦlt;/p>

Was it not S Jobs who at some point, during the tough times, sold ARM (since it was Apple’s company)? I think I understood it was Apple Reduced Memory. It was one of those developments that were undermined by Microsoft with the permanent: “stop the presses we are coming with something better”. So many Apple developments were drowned by, at the time, all powerful MS.
Please advise.

Easy mistake.  The answer is no.  You are getting AIM mixed up with ARM.   AIM (Apple-IBM-Motorola) partnered to design the PowerPC chip.  

ARM is/was a British company.  In fact, it started as a contest on show on BBC (or was it iTV) in the late 70s on how to make a low powered computer chip.

Personally, I think Apple will eventually end up switching to RISC-V chip.  In fact, if they're not already developing a chip...they are...for sure.  10 years, they will come out with their own design.