anantksundaram

superkloton said:

It's an awesome machine, no question. The only thing that it is missing for me is the True Tone display. I never had that on a laptop but love it on my iPhone, that's why I want to have it in my next laptop as well. Unfortunately, only the pro models with the Touch Bar have it.

Funny. True Tone is the first thing I turn off when I get any Apple device that has it. I find its tone looks like faded/yellowed paper. I prefer the slightly bluish tint!

ElCapitan said:

Does all these TVs announced with AirPlay2 undermine the market for AppleTV?

Clearly the answer is "yes."

AppleTV became an increasingly mediocre, pointless product. Pretty much everything it does/did has been slowly, steadily competed away. Indeed, many competitors offerings give you much more (e.g., Roku with a $29.99 product that has an Xfinity app which allowed me to return the two additional cable boxes I had, thereby saving me $240/per year).

It was only a matter of time that Apple woke up and smelled the roses. Such a wasted opportunity. (Siri might be headed in the same direction).

dewme said:

I’m confused. I’ve seen many companies, including ones I’ve worked for, revise their guidance when the actuals are trending too far from the estimates. This is all part of being transparent and operating in good faith. Nobody likes surprises, especially bad ones, so the best way to handle bad news is to put it out there early so those affected have as much time as possible to deal with it on their end. When did operating a business in an open and honest manner become a prosecutable offense?

This is par for the course. The question these guys are asking is whether it was indeed done in an "...open and honest manner." Under prevailing governance norms in the US -- notably, the business judgment rule -- Apple will say "yes".

And this will likely go the way most of these class action lawsuits do: nowhere.

tjwolf said:

anantksundaram said:

Clearly something happened within the last month or so that Apple execs didn’t see coming.

This to me is the MOST concerning thing. It suggests to me that it’s not trade (old news, if anything tariffs have been delayed), it’s not the government or Huawei (Chinese competitors have been gaining share for a year now), it’s not the dollar (which is no worse than what it has been in the past six months), it’s not the slowing of the Chinese economy (this is also old news). 

IMHO, it could well be the product and the price. Especially the XR, starting at $750 (for a laughable 64GB). Frankly, when it was introduced, my reaction was “meh, some candy-colored overpriced crap”. Apple did something similar before (5s? 6s?) and those colored phones did not do well, IIRC. And, while I did buy the Xs Max, I can’t say it does anything different or better than the X that I bought last year. Interestingly, two people in my family have no interest upgrading from their iPhone 8, and one had to be bribed to switch to my X (so that I could get the Xs Max). 

I think the XR — I have not seen one in the wild yet! — could well be history in the next product iteration. And Apple had better get on the 5G game asap, or the next product cycle could be tough too. 

The trade tariffs may be "old news", but the effect it - along with the recently intensified witch hunt of Huawei - has had on the Chinese is not.  I submit that the Chinese consumer has turned much more against American products than folks, including executives at AAPL, thought.  The average AAPL Chinese consumer thinks the US initiated trade war and pursuit of Huawei is completely unjustified and is doing his/her bit to fight back against the "American aggressor".  How?  By buying Chinese (e.g. Huawei) and shunning American products.

Apple is "collateral damage" in Trump's ill-conceived trade war that only his simple mind thinks is "easy to win".

I don't think it's product and price at all.  If that were the case, how do you explain the record or near record sales in other regions?  IMHO, you're letting your personal opinion of Apple's products cloud overall judgement.  BTW, the "colored" phone that didn't do well was the 5c.  If you bought an Xs Max this year and an X last year, you're clearly in the minority (of people with too much money and too little sense).  And, at the very least, if you're being disingenuous by saying it does nothing different/better: it has a friggin' bigger screen!  That's *different*.

Finally, according to AAPL, the Xr was Apple's best-selling phone this xmas quarter.  That alone invalidates your opinion that its destiny will be similar to the 5c.

Another pointless and ill-informed set of thoughts.

One, it is the job of a CEO to sniff out such changes in consumer sentiment, especially in a market that accounts for 20% of his revenue.

Two, other US consumer products are doing fine in China. As an example, Nike -- another quintessentially American product -- is doing fine in China, and the CEO made a statement to that effect just ten days ago.

Three, there is no "trade war." Yet. It's pure hyperbole. Look up the facts. Not one of Apple's products is subject to tariffs yet. And the two countries are in negotiations.

Four, you may think a "friggin' bigger screen!" is what matters, but others may not. Similarly -- and ironically, on the topic of "too much money and too little sense" -- you may think that price does not matter bit a lot of others may think otherwise. And, on the topic of price, Cook himself -- if you bothered to look up actual facts -- complained about "fewer carrier subsidies" leading to fewer upgrades: what do you think this is, if not the market's responsiveness to price!? (Also, something that did not happen overnight -- carrier subsidies started to disappear a couple of years ago).

Five, being the "best-selling this Christmas quarter" is a meaningless statement. Best-selling in terms of what -- aggregate revenue? Units sold? Relative to the Xs and the Xs Max? Relative to 2017? 2016? Don't just re-spout cheap corporate-speak.

Just curious: How many XRs have you seen?

Mike Wuerthele said:

tedz98 said:

Mike Wuerthele said:

tedz98 said:

While everyone is reacting to the here and now, remember Wall St. is forward looking.  The concern is that this is the beginning of a trend of reduced earnings and struggles with selling product in developing markets.  

Apple has saturated the the market for premium phones. iPhone owners are delaying replacing their phones.  Developing markets can’t afford Apple’s premium priced iPhones and overwhelming turn to Android phones. Is Apple capable of delivering a truly new and innovative product that can propel revenue growth?  They missed a huge opportunity with smart speakers and are playing catch-up. Can they develop services offerings that are compelling and revenue/profit rich?  These are the factors driving the share price. 

the trade issues with China will eventually work their way through.  But for now there is much uncertainty, which is always a negative on Wall St.  Apple is at risk relying on China for manufacturing and this needs to be addressed. The Chinese market is not a free market and Apple cannot count on growth there due to government interventions.  

Overall Apple will continue to  be a highly successful enterprise but they will struggle with the double digit growth the market became accustomed over the past decade. 

Wall Street hasn't been forward-looking in over 20 years.

The value of a share of stock is the net present value of all FUTURE earnings.  If that’s not forward looking I don’t know what is 

I agree that's the ideal. However, that isn't how Wall Street has been responding to anything for a very long time.

You couldn't be more wrong. Markets can -- and often do -- under- or over-react, but it is simply not factual to suggest that the sine qua non of markets is capitalizing future cash flows (earnings being a proxy).

Don't ignore the fact that markets have been quite positive about Apple. In fact, more so than being negative: after all, it's the same market that gave Apple a stock price of $230+ per share and a market cap of $1.1 trillion.

I find that people always complain about the market when their choice of stocks/portfolios suck.