Development issues may cause later-than-expected debuts of 'iPhone 5S,' low-cost iPhone & next iPad
The bulk of Apple's 2013 product pipeline will likely launch later than many market watchers expect, according to one insider, due to a variety of complex development challenges associated this year's anticipated iPhones and new iPad mini.
Ming-chi Kuo of KGI Securities, who has a strong track record in revealing Apple's future product plans, shared a research note with AppleInsider on Thursday that suggested Apple's so-called "iPhone 5S," a rumored low-cost iPhone, and a second-generation iPad mini will all launch later than market consensus expects.
These apparent delays are driven by a variety of issues, according to Kuo. For the "iPhone 5S," he said Apple plans to include a fingerprint sensor that poses a number of technical challenges.
"Apple has to work out how to prevent interference from the black and white coating material under the cover glass," he said. "Apple is the first to attempt this function and technology, and time is needed to find the right coating material, which will likely affect iPhone 5S shipments."
Kuo has previously claimed that Apple plans to integrate a fingerprint sensor beneath the home button the next iPhone. This new technology would allow users to bypass password entry, and could also allow Apple to integrate secure e-wallet functionality.
Another hold-up for the next iPhone, according to Kuo, is the development of iOS 7, Apple's anticipated next-generation mobile operating system. The analyst said Thursday that more time is likely to be needed for software development and testing, particularly with respect to the fingerprint scanning functions that will be included with the software.
As for the rumored low-cost iPhone said to be in the works at Apple, Kuo said Apple faces challenges with the casing on the device. He expects that the low-end iPhone will have a plastic casing that will be slimmer than such casings regularly are.
"The slimmer casing may make it more difficult to ramp up production yields of coating and surface treatment, and could slow down the shipment timetable," he said.
Finally, Kuo said the "iPad mini 2" faces challenges with its display panels, as he expects Apple will opt to include a high-resolution Retina display with the second-generation device. This is expected to make the device more difficult to manufacture, which could delay shipments.
As a result of these issues, Kuo said it's likely that Apple will see single-digit growth in iPhone and iPad shipments in the third quarter of 2013. That would be well below the market consensus, which sees Apple growing its sales by between 30 and 40 percent with the introductions of new products.
KGI Securities' previous roadmap, shown here, called for earlier launches of Apple's "iPhone 5S" and "iPad mini 2."
Last year, Kuo was the first to detail a number of major changes to Apple's product lineup, including the discontinuation of the 17-inch MacBook Pro, and that Apple would continue to sell the legacy MacBook Pro with disc drive alongside a new, thinner model inspired by the design of the MacBook Air.
Kuo also accurately forecast Apple's entire fall product lineup, including unexpected products like a redesigned iPod nano and tweaked fourth-generation iPad with faster processor and Lightning connector. The analyst also revealed months before the new, thinner iMacs were announced that the redesigned all-in-one desktops would be in short supply. Availability of the iMacs proved to be so constrained that Apple experienced supply issues well into 2013.
Ming-chi Kuo of KGI Securities, who has a strong track record in revealing Apple's future product plans, shared a research note with AppleInsider on Thursday that suggested Apple's so-called "iPhone 5S," a rumored low-cost iPhone, and a second-generation iPad mini will all launch later than market consensus expects.
These apparent delays are driven by a variety of issues, according to Kuo. For the "iPhone 5S," he said Apple plans to include a fingerprint sensor that poses a number of technical challenges.
An "iPhone 5S" fingerprint sensor, Retina display for next iPad mini, and ultrathin plastic casing for low-cost iPhone are expected to cause production challenges for Apple.
"Apple has to work out how to prevent interference from the black and white coating material under the cover glass," he said. "Apple is the first to attempt this function and technology, and time is needed to find the right coating material, which will likely affect iPhone 5S shipments."
Kuo has previously claimed that Apple plans to integrate a fingerprint sensor beneath the home button the next iPhone. This new technology would allow users to bypass password entry, and could also allow Apple to integrate secure e-wallet functionality.
Another hold-up for the next iPhone, according to Kuo, is the development of iOS 7, Apple's anticipated next-generation mobile operating system. The analyst said Thursday that more time is likely to be needed for software development and testing, particularly with respect to the fingerprint scanning functions that will be included with the software.
As for the rumored low-cost iPhone said to be in the works at Apple, Kuo said Apple faces challenges with the casing on the device. He expects that the low-end iPhone will have a plastic casing that will be slimmer than such casings regularly are.
Analyst Ming-chi Kuo correctly predicted the bulk of Apple's 2012 product lineup. This year, he sees iPhone and iPad sales shrinking to single-digit growth in the third quarter because of apparent behind-the-scenes production delays.
"The slimmer casing may make it more difficult to ramp up production yields of coating and surface treatment, and could slow down the shipment timetable," he said.
Finally, Kuo said the "iPad mini 2" faces challenges with its display panels, as he expects Apple will opt to include a high-resolution Retina display with the second-generation device. This is expected to make the device more difficult to manufacture, which could delay shipments.
As a result of these issues, Kuo said it's likely that Apple will see single-digit growth in iPhone and iPad shipments in the third quarter of 2013. That would be well below the market consensus, which sees Apple growing its sales by between 30 and 40 percent with the introductions of new products.
KGI Securities' previous roadmap, shown here, called for earlier launches of Apple's "iPhone 5S" and "iPad mini 2."
Last year, Kuo was the first to detail a number of major changes to Apple's product lineup, including the discontinuation of the 17-inch MacBook Pro, and that Apple would continue to sell the legacy MacBook Pro with disc drive alongside a new, thinner model inspired by the design of the MacBook Air.
Kuo also accurately forecast Apple's entire fall product lineup, including unexpected products like a redesigned iPod nano and tweaked fourth-generation iPad with faster processor and Lightning connector. The analyst also revealed months before the new, thinner iMacs were announced that the redesigned all-in-one desktops would be in short supply. Availability of the iMacs proved to be so constrained that Apple experienced supply issues well into 2013.
Comments
Or it's going to come out later simply because the other rumors were baseless and wrong? Naaaah that couldn't be it.
Originally Posted by ytseman3
A$$holes.
That character change is particularly apt in this situation.
I'd rather see Apple delay the launch for a few months than push off major changes to iOS until iOS 8 next year. If Apple can outperform expectations in their products this year, that is the best way to launch the stock price back up. Financial tricks like buybacks, stock splits, and preferred shares are just smoke and mirrors to drive the price up temporarily.
Quote:
Originally Posted by techguy911
I'd rather see Apple delay the launch for a few months than push off major changes to iOS until iOS 8 next year.
We don't even know that they really are "delaying" anything. All we have are baseless rumors making claims that then another rumor comes about to claim the previous rumors are wrong.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Junkyard Dawg
This guy is just talking out of his arse, he has no sources. Probably planning to short Apple stock and make a bundle.
On the surface this particular analyst sounds to be more reliable and thus better connected than some others that AI has quoted.
My bank account says THANK YOU!
I've heard rumours that, due to these delays, iOS 8 will be coming out this year, and iOS 7 will release in 2014.
If you're going to claim that someone has a good track record, maybe you should provide some evidence? Historically, the only time Kuo has been accurate is when s/he predicted something that everyone else was already expecting.
How about some real ratings of analysts? You know, based on data?
Kuo predicted that the iPod Touch was EOL's about 7 months ago (this was only a month after predicting that it would receive 'its biggest upgrade ever'. Hasn't happened. S/he predicted that the MacBook Pro product line would be completely eliminated almost a year ago (replaced with "the new Macbook". Or maybe the prediction just 3 days before last year's WWDC that Apple would be introduction a new laptop called simply 'MacBook' with retina display which would be sold in addition to the MBP and MBA.
S/he did 'predict' the end of the 17" MBP and the introduction of the iPad Mini, but I can't find any references to those 'predictions' until well after they had become pretty standard industry knowledge.
Thats pretty much the pattern of most of the analysts. The 'predictions' are mostly false. However, eventually when it starts to leak that there's a new product, they ALL jump onto the bandwagon and then use that to proclaim how smart they are.
Sure. Apple has NEVER introduced new hardware without having a new version of the software available at launch. /s
Quote:
Originally Posted by Junkyard Dawg
This guy is just talking out of his arse, he has no sources. Probably planning to short Apple stock and make a bundle.
Maybe you didn't read the entire article. Not only does he have a fairly strong track record but all his points are logical. Not everyone is out to short Apple stock, that comment has become nothing more than a cheap catch phrase on this forum when people don't like what they hear. The fact that Apple created a bottleneck at the end of 2012 this isn't that hard to grasp.
An iMac that took forever to come out and a rMBP that has seen several price drops because it was overpriced and underpowered. A price drop mid cycle by Apple and added drops by authorized dealers. When was the last time Apple had to drop the price of a product mid cycle? Issue like these are the reason for the drop in stock.
This article almost spends more time on Kuo's credentials as a fortune-teller (aka, stock market analyst) than on the rumor itself.
Correctly guessing last weeks lottery numbers does not increase the odds that I will correctly guess next weeks lottery numbers. Ditto for Kuo's supposed prescience.