RIM is doing good, so they don't really need to change their approach to smart phones dramatically. Like Apple do, you don't change wining formula.
Nokia, well. I believe their new (Linux based?) platform has potential. They are a bit slow to respond but considering their size, I'd say they have enough reserve to recover and bounce back before things go desperate.
And Nokia does have advantage over Apple, even at present. Even if "smart" part of Nokias leave much to be desired, "phone" part works much better than iPhone, I'm afraid.
Carrying company Nokia E63 and my iPhone 3Gs together across wide Auckland area - both on Vodafone 3G network, I did notice that Nokia is very happy with signal most of the time - actually haven't noticed it switching from 3G to 2G or even loosing more than 2 (out of 7) tabs of signal strength... while my beloved iPhone goes to 2G often and also sits on sad 1 tab of 3G signal a lot of time. I also caught 2 brief "no service" messages where Nokia was absolutely happy to oblige.
This is not a small difference, I'm afraid. Going rural (bushwalks, camping) would likely make 3Gs very useless phone around here.
As I have mentioned in different tread, I've compared my findings with 2 more 3Gs units, and all of them were equally touchy signal wise.
RIM needs to step things up dramatically. This isn't three years ago. It's never a good thing when your competition is gaining on you by leaps and bounds. Apple will soon overtake RIM.
RIM needs to step things up dramatically. This isn't three years ago. It's never a good thing when your competition is gaining on you by leaps and bounds. Apple will soon overtake RIM.
Yeah, I'll agree with ya on something finally. The latest blackberries are starting to seem dated.
But they are simple as hell to use, and everyone I know can't imagine living without one. THAT doesn't sound like they're doing too bad.
Their attempt at the storm was the same mistake many phone companies made. They tried to emulate what they thought was making the iphone great, and they completely messed up. They need to stick with what makes blackberries great. Listen to what their user base is asking for. There's always room for improvement, but when you've got a UI as straightforward and sensible as blackberry's, it's not something you want to rush to move away from just because of another phone's success.
Mark my words, the phone that trumps the iphone won't look like an iphone lol.
But they are simple as hell to use, and everyone I know can't imagine living without one. THAT doesn't sound like they're doing too bad.
It?s not that they are doing bad like other mobile handset and moble OS vendors, it?s that they aren?t doing well. They?re increasing their unit sales but they aren?t making nearly as much money per unit as they used to. On top of that, RiM business model of selling Blackberry Enterprise Servers that connect to Exchange Servers and their $100 per unit per year fee for having email/calendar/contacts sent and synced has stagnated. These new phones have ActiveSync and with the recession it?s a good way to save a lot of money a year. To make matters worse, the iPhone is growing fast enough to overtake the BB unit marketshare very shortly (if not already) and the iPhone is well past the profit marketshare at this point.
Quote:
Mark my words, the phone that trumps the iphone won't look like an iphone lol.
I agree with this. It?s why so few took Apple seriously when they decided to enter the well entrenched iPhone market.
Everyone keeps making these doom and gloom statements about, they aren't going anywhere. Their pushing around ten million headsets a quarter, adding 3mil+ subscribers every quarter I'd say they don't have much to worry about to be honest. No one expected apple to bum rush the industry like they did, but they are very far from being in hot water like palm and moto.
I will say the storm was a disaster, but it should show that BB isn't about being flashy or playing games, its about being the king in communications and rim is top dog in that respect. Security is king, all "essential apps" exist on the device, your not going to be playing tiger woods on the phone and I would have to say almost 40 million people don't care otherwise they'd be flying to iphones right? I know quite a few ladies that use bb because capacitive screens and nails don't work well.
Besides the browser most of what rim needs to do is rid themselves of silly limitations that they have that are unnecessary (4mb capped dl?).
Dammit boy! You?ve had it explained by like 3 different people now. The calendar didn?t start on year zero, it started on year one. To say that 2000 started the decade you have to have started CE with year zero.
Nice. Yah for all you folks saying that AT&T suxxors, there are reasons why a good number of folks wouldn't touch Vz wireless with a 10 foot pole. I don't care how good their network is.
Nice. Yah for all you folks saying that AT&T suxxors, there are reasons why a good number of folks wouldn't touch Vz wireless with a 10 foot pole. I don't care how good their network is.
Doesn't matter what Verizon is or isn't it doesn't make ATT suck less. Their 3g coverage is poor only behind TMoble and their Edge network is beyond slow.
Gartner (and you) seem to take for granted that the Windows-like branded software model (which is what Google is using except that Android is free) will be successful in consumer electronics. This despite the failure of PlaysforSure in mp3/media players, and WinMo in cellphones. And the model is just not being used for other electronics.
Gartner (and you) also assume that Apple will stick to the 1 model approach, despite it already having 3 models (3G, 3GS, China 3GS). I agree Apple won't make anything with less than a 3.2" multi-touch display and virtual keyboard, but there's still room for additional cellular models with different form factors. When the majority of the market moves to "app phones" instead of feature phones, I think Apple will have those additional models.
And if you're going to include other electronics for Android, then one needs to include Apple's iPod touch, the rumored "Tablet", and whatever comes next. I don't think Gartner's numbers included any projection for that.
If the Droid isn't more successful than other Android phones (given its prominent perch on the largest US carrier), and if it isn't way more successful than the Storm was on Verizon, it's quite possible that the Android fervor will start to cool off.
Actually very good points. I guess you can call the iPhones technically 3 models, as they all have different hardware, but run the same OS. But my thought is that Apple is still only a single company and the iPhone itself is still being developed in a vertical approach. There will still only be about 1 new model per year (basing off of Apple's current trend). Android, on the other hand, has pretty much an unlimited amount of models to release per year, depending on the number of manufacturers that decide to use it. Of course, things can change, as you implied.
Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but new iPhone models typically start in the US for a while and then make their way to the rest of the world. China, one of the largest population centers in the world, is just getting the iPhone now, after 2+ years. Android on manufacturers around the world won't have that problem. If the in-country smartphone company wants to have an Android-based phone, then they can go right ahead and start working on it.
Gartner's numbers might not, but you didn't consider that Android also has equivalents to the iPod Touch, "Tablet", and other electronics in the wild or in development. Theoretically, they can all have the same apps ecosystem like the iPhone/iPod via WiFi or cellular cards.
I personally believe that the Droid will be very successful. The entire way Google integrated its search cloud into Eclair and the new Navigation will definitely give it a strong hold on the market stateside. Android's finally got the hardware to run it right and people will notice and buy. Being on Verizon helps too. If they can make the Storm sell decently well, I'm willing to bet Droid will have no problems doing much better. Sony-Ericsson's X10 (or is it X3?) looks like a real winner to me as well for the rest of the world or unlocked here. The Rachael GUI is one of the better one's that I've seen. And when HTC finally decides to leave WinMo and port Sense UI onto Android (fingers crossed), well...
For what it's worth, I found this article very interesting:
Everyone keeps making these doom and gloom statements about, they aren't going anywhere. Their pushing around ten million headsets a quarter, adding 3mil+ subscribers every quarter I'd say they don't have much to worry about to be honest. No one expected apple to bum rush the industry like they did, but they are very far from being in hot water like palm and moto.
I will say the storm was a disaster, but it should show that BB isn't about being flashy or playing games, its about being the king in communications and rim is top dog in that respect. Security is king, all "essential apps" exist on the device, your not going to be playing tiger woods on the phone and I would have to say almost 40 million people don't care otherwise they'd be flying to iphones right? I know quite a few ladies that use bb because capacitive screens and nails don't work well.
Besides the browser most of what rim needs to do is rid themselves of silly limitations that they have that are unnecessary (4mb capped dl?).
There are several reasons why they are going to have problems:
No way Android devices outnumber iPhone OS devices in a couple years. No. Way.
I'm going to have to side with solipsism here on this bet. Android is not just a phone OS. It just happened to get its appearance to the public in the smartphone world. It's an relatively free OS that can be put on nearly anything electronic and be shaped however the manufacturer wants. That's the key here.
A few sections down on this article links to others that show just where the Android web has spread out to.
No way Android devices outnumber iPhone OS devices in a couple years. No. Way.
To clarify, I mean quarter-to-quarter sales of devices with respective mobile OSes, not installed base, that will take a lot longer with the amount of time the iPhone and iPod Touch have been on the market.
That 16GB microSD card you get with it? That's only for your music, videos, pictures, etc. All according to Pogue.
Yes, but as an interchangable flash card you can swap it out for one of any number of other 16GB or larger cards to support a massive library of music/videos/music.... if you so wanted. That seems like an extreme use of microSD cards, but you don't have this option with the iPhone
No way Android devices outnumber iPhone OS devices in a couple years. No. Way.
Not even with every man and his dog and their phone company betting their future on the Android platform? Motorola are betting their survival as a company on the Android platform and has said they have more than 10 different phone models coming in 2010 based on Android. Holy crap. That's not just a niche market, we're talking an avalanche of Android based phones, and not to mention other Android based devices (eBook readers like Barnes and Noble etc) coming within the next year.
Within a year practically every mobile phone carrier in the US will be selling Android phones, including AT&T.
Yes, but as an interchangable flash card you can swap it out for one of any number of other 16GB or larger cards to support a massive library of music/videos/music.... if you so wanted. That seems like an extreme use of microSD cards, but you don't have this option with the iPhone
That?s true but it?s definitely a fading argument.. The 8GB and 16GB iPhone seem to be a sweet spot for a lot of people these days and there is still a 32GB model for those so inclined. In a year, maybe two, we?ll have 64GB.
Also, the NAND in the iPhone is faster than other NAND according to some reports comparing the Pre to the 3GS. I don?t think a microSD would as fast, either, but that is speculation.
Besides that, how many people carry multiple SD cards? More than people that carry extra batteries? The iPhone doesn?t have these but these aren?t something most people even carry about.
The most troubling aspect of the microSD situation in the Droid is the lack of space for 3rd-party apps. I have a localized version of Wikipedia on my phone when I?m outside the US that takes up 2GB. I also have over 100 apps on my phone that take up more room than the Droid has. Sure, I might be the exception but it seems like a small amount of space for a platform with 12k apps and growing. I hope the Droid won?t have the update barrier that the HTC G1; likely stuck with v1.6 forever.
PS: A bit of a segue, but I hate the size of the SIM card in phones. It takes up a lot of room for the amount of data on them. They need to revise the specification to make a smaller SiM card. It?s just a waste of space on logic boards in modern phones.
I'm going to have to side with solipsism here on this bet. Android is not just a phone OS. It just happened to get its appearance to the public in the smartphone world. It's an relatively free OS that can be put on nearly anything electronic and be shaped however the manufacturer wants. That's the key here.
A few sections down on this article links to others that show just where the Android web has spread out to.
Yes, but as an interchangable flash card you can swap it out for one of any number of other 16GB or larger cards to support a massive library of music/videos/music.... if you so wanted. That seems like an extreme use of microSD cards, but you don't have this option with the iPhone
I had that with my Treo. It isn't as much of an advantage as you think. The phones get confused when cards are exchanged. You're forever changing cards to get the right stuff in the phone when you want it.
Not even with every man and his dog and their phone company betting their future on the Android platform? Motorola are betting their survival as a company on the Android platform and has said they have more than 10 different phone models coming in 2010 based on Android. Holy crap. That's not just a niche market, we're talking an avalanche of Android based phones, and not to mention other Android based devices (eBook readers like Barnes and Noble etc) coming within the next year.
Within a year practically every mobile phone carrier in the US will be selling Android phones, including AT&T.
And like phones on other OS's, most will be crap. And most won't sell well.
There will be maybe a half dozen that will do well, meaning a few million a year each. The rest will do what most other phones do that aren't really cheap for the mass market, which is to sell in the hundreds of thousands a year.
Apple may sell 35 million phones in calender year 2010, and maybe 40 to 45 million in 2011. More if the recession is gone.
That's a steep road to climb for Android. It will take a few years before they are in that bracket.
Comments
RIM is doing good, so they don't really need to change their approach to smart phones dramatically. Like Apple do, you don't change wining formula.
Nokia, well. I believe their new (Linux based?) platform has potential. They are a bit slow to respond but considering their size, I'd say they have enough reserve to recover and bounce back before things go desperate.
And Nokia does have advantage over Apple, even at present. Even if "smart" part of Nokias leave much to be desired, "phone" part works much better than iPhone, I'm afraid.
Carrying company Nokia E63 and my iPhone 3Gs together across wide Auckland area - both on Vodafone 3G network, I did notice that Nokia is very happy with signal most of the time - actually haven't noticed it switching from 3G to 2G or even loosing more than 2 (out of 7) tabs of signal strength... while my beloved iPhone goes to 2G often and also sits on sad 1 tab of 3G signal a lot of time. I also caught 2 brief "no service" messages where Nokia was absolutely happy to oblige.
This is not a small difference, I'm afraid. Going rural (bushwalks, camping) would likely make 3Gs very useless phone around here.
As I have mentioned in different tread, I've compared my findings with 2 more 3Gs units, and all of them were equally touchy signal wise.
Great device, bellow average phone
From what I'm reading, RIM could be in trouble.
From what I'm reading, RIM could be in trouble.
RIM needs to step things up dramatically. This isn't three years ago. It's never a good thing when your competition is gaining on you by leaps and bounds. Apple will soon overtake RIM.
RIM needs to step things up dramatically. This isn't three years ago. It's never a good thing when your competition is gaining on you by leaps and bounds. Apple will soon overtake RIM.
Yeah, I'll agree with ya on something finally. The latest blackberries are starting to seem dated.
But they are simple as hell to use, and everyone I know can't imagine living without one. THAT doesn't sound like they're doing too bad.
Their attempt at the storm was the same mistake many phone companies made. They tried to emulate what they thought was making the iphone great, and they completely messed up. They need to stick with what makes blackberries great. Listen to what their user base is asking for. There's always room for improvement, but when you've got a UI as straightforward and sensible as blackberry's, it's not something you want to rush to move away from just because of another phone's success.
Mark my words, the phone that trumps the iphone won't look like an iphone lol.
That was a Gartner analysis. And when has Gartner been right in predicting a future that is more than 3 months out?
When has Gartner been right predicting a future 3 months in the past?
But they are simple as hell to use, and everyone I know can't imagine living without one. THAT doesn't sound like they're doing too bad.
It?s not that they are doing bad like other mobile handset and moble OS vendors, it?s that they aren?t doing well. They?re increasing their unit sales but they aren?t making nearly as much money per unit as they used to. On top of that, RiM business model of selling Blackberry Enterprise Servers that connect to Exchange Servers and their $100 per unit per year fee for having email/calendar/contacts sent and synced has stagnated. These new phones have ActiveSync and with the recession it?s a good way to save a lot of money a year. To make matters worse, the iPhone is growing fast enough to overtake the BB unit marketshare very shortly (if not already) and the iPhone is well past the profit marketshare at this point.
Mark my words, the phone that trumps the iphone won't look like an iphone lol.
I agree with this. It?s why so few took Apple seriously when they decided to enter the well entrenched iPhone market.
I will say the storm was a disaster, but it should show that BB isn't about being flashy or playing games, its about being the king in communications and rim is top dog in that respect. Security is king, all "essential apps" exist on the device, your not going to be playing tiger woods on the phone and I would have to say almost 40 million people don't care otherwise they'd be flying to iphones right? I know quite a few ladies that use bb because capacitive screens and nails don't work well.
Besides the browser most of what rim needs to do is rid themselves of silly limitations that they have that are unnecessary (4mb capped dl?).
Dammit boy! You?ve had it explained by like 3 different people now. The calendar didn?t start on year zero, it started on year one. To say that 2000 started the decade you have to have started CE with year zero.
Some folks are worth the warning or temp ban...
....better be sure you like Verizon and the new DROID....termination fee has been doubled to $350.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10622...s-outrage.html
Nice. Yah for all you folks saying that AT&T suxxors, there are reasons why a good number of folks wouldn't touch Vz wireless with a 10 foot pole. I don't care how good their network is.
Nice. Yah for all you folks saying that AT&T suxxors, there are reasons why a good number of folks wouldn't touch Vz wireless with a 10 foot pole. I don't care how good their network is.
Doesn't matter what Verizon is or isn't it doesn't make ATT suck less. Their 3g coverage is poor only behind TMoble and their Edge network is beyond slow.
Gartner (and you) seem to take for granted that the Windows-like branded software model (which is what Google is using except that Android is free) will be successful in consumer electronics. This despite the failure of PlaysforSure in mp3/media players, and WinMo in cellphones. And the model is just not being used for other electronics.
Gartner (and you) also assume that Apple will stick to the 1 model approach, despite it already having 3 models (3G, 3GS, China 3GS). I agree Apple won't make anything with less than a 3.2" multi-touch display and virtual keyboard, but there's still room for additional cellular models with different form factors. When the majority of the market moves to "app phones" instead of feature phones, I think Apple will have those additional models.
And if you're going to include other electronics for Android, then one needs to include Apple's iPod touch, the rumored "Tablet", and whatever comes next. I don't think Gartner's numbers included any projection for that.
If the Droid isn't more successful than other Android phones (given its prominent perch on the largest US carrier), and if it isn't way more successful than the Storm was on Verizon, it's quite possible that the Android fervor will start to cool off.
Actually very good points. I guess you can call the iPhones technically 3 models, as they all have different hardware, but run the same OS. But my thought is that Apple is still only a single company and the iPhone itself is still being developed in a vertical approach. There will still only be about 1 new model per year (basing off of Apple's current trend). Android, on the other hand, has pretty much an unlimited amount of models to release per year, depending on the number of manufacturers that decide to use it. Of course, things can change, as you implied.
Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but new iPhone models typically start in the US for a while and then make their way to the rest of the world. China, one of the largest population centers in the world, is just getting the iPhone now, after 2+ years. Android on manufacturers around the world won't have that problem. If the in-country smartphone company wants to have an Android-based phone, then they can go right ahead and start working on it.
Gartner's numbers might not, but you didn't consider that Android also has equivalents to the iPod Touch, "Tablet", and other electronics in the wild or in development. Theoretically, they can all have the same apps ecosystem like the iPhone/iPod via WiFi or cellular cards.
I personally believe that the Droid will be very successful. The entire way Google integrated its search cloud into Eclair and the new Navigation will definitely give it a strong hold on the market stateside. Android's finally got the hardware to run it right and people will notice and buy. Being on Verizon helps too. If they can make the Storm sell decently well, I'm willing to bet Droid will have no problems doing much better. Sony-Ericsson's X10 (or is it X3?) looks like a real winner to me as well for the rest of the world or unlocked here. The Rachael GUI is one of the better one's that I've seen. And when HTC finally decides to leave WinMo and port Sense UI onto Android (fingers crossed), well...
For what it's worth, I found this article very interesting:
http://gizmodo.com/5397215/giz-expla...yline=true&s=x
It's lot some links to non-smartphone Android products in development.
Everyone keeps making these doom and gloom statements about, they aren't going anywhere. Their pushing around ten million headsets a quarter, adding 3mil+ subscribers every quarter I'd say they don't have much to worry about to be honest. No one expected apple to bum rush the industry like they did, but they are very far from being in hot water like palm and moto.
I will say the storm was a disaster, but it should show that BB isn't about being flashy or playing games, its about being the king in communications and rim is top dog in that respect. Security is king, all "essential apps" exist on the device, your not going to be playing tiger woods on the phone and I would have to say almost 40 million people don't care otherwise they'd be flying to iphones right? I know quite a few ladies that use bb because capacitive screens and nails don't work well.
Besides the browser most of what rim needs to do is rid themselves of silly limitations that they have that are unnecessary (4mb capped dl?).
There are several reasons why they are going to have problems:
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2009/...=RIM&st=Search
And here:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125734874286028237.html
I have no doubt that Android-based phones will out number iPhone OS-based phones without a couple years,
No way Android devices outnumber iPhone OS devices in a couple years. No. Way.
No way Android devices outnumber iPhone OS devices in a couple years. No. Way.
I'm going to have to side with solipsism here on this bet. Android is not just a phone OS. It just happened to get its appearance to the public in the smartphone world. It's an relatively free OS that can be put on nearly anything electronic and be shaped however the manufacturer wants. That's the key here.
A few sections down on this article links to others that show just where the Android web has spread out to.
http://gizmodo.com/5397215/giz-expla...yline=true&s=x
No way Android devices outnumber iPhone OS devices in a couple years. No. Way.
To clarify, I mean quarter-to-quarter sales of devices with respective mobile OSes, not installed base, that will take a lot longer with the amount of time the iPhone and iPod Touch have been on the market.
That 16GB microSD card you get with it? That's only for your music, videos, pictures, etc. All according to Pogue.
Yes, but as an interchangable flash card you can swap it out for one of any number of other 16GB or larger cards to support a massive library of music/videos/music.... if you so wanted. That seems like an extreme use of microSD cards, but you don't have this option with the iPhone
No way Android devices outnumber iPhone OS devices in a couple years. No. Way.
Not even with every man and his dog and their phone company betting their future on the Android platform? Motorola are betting their survival as a company on the Android platform and has said they have more than 10 different phone models coming in 2010 based on Android. Holy crap. That's not just a niche market, we're talking an avalanche of Android based phones, and not to mention other Android based devices (eBook readers like Barnes and Noble etc) coming within the next year.
Within a year practically every mobile phone carrier in the US will be selling Android phones, including AT&T.
Yes, but as an interchangable flash card you can swap it out for one of any number of other 16GB or larger cards to support a massive library of music/videos/music.... if you so wanted. That seems like an extreme use of microSD cards, but you don't have this option with the iPhone
That?s true but it?s definitely a fading argument.. The 8GB and 16GB iPhone seem to be a sweet spot for a lot of people these days and there is still a 32GB model for those so inclined. In a year, maybe two, we?ll have 64GB.
Also, the NAND in the iPhone is faster than other NAND according to some reports comparing the Pre to the 3GS. I don?t think a microSD would as fast, either, but that is speculation.
Besides that, how many people carry multiple SD cards? More than people that carry extra batteries? The iPhone doesn?t have these but these aren?t something most people even carry about.
The most troubling aspect of the microSD situation in the Droid is the lack of space for 3rd-party apps. I have a localized version of Wikipedia on my phone when I?m outside the US that takes up 2GB. I also have over 100 apps on my phone that take up more room than the Droid has. Sure, I might be the exception but it seems like a small amount of space for a platform with 12k apps and growing. I hope the Droid won?t have the update barrier that the HTC G1; likely stuck with v1.6 forever.
PS: A bit of a segue, but I hate the size of the SIM card in phones. It takes up a lot of room for the amount of data on them. They need to revise the specification to make a smaller SiM card. It?s just a waste of space on logic boards in modern phones.
I'm going to have to side with solipsism here on this bet. Android is not just a phone OS. It just happened to get its appearance to the public in the smartphone world. It's an relatively free OS that can be put on nearly anything electronic and be shaped however the manufacturer wants. That's the key here.
A few sections down on this article links to others that show just where the Android web has spread out to.
http://gizmodo.com/5397215/giz-expla...yline=true&s=x
We're talking about phones though. The rest don't matter to this conversation.
It's like saying that Linux distro numbers are greater than Windows installations.
That may be true, but only if you include the 99.99% that are used in embedded equipment.
Yes, but as an interchangable flash card you can swap it out for one of any number of other 16GB or larger cards to support a massive library of music/videos/music.... if you so wanted. That seems like an extreme use of microSD cards, but you don't have this option with the iPhone
I had that with my Treo. It isn't as much of an advantage as you think. The phones get confused when cards are exchanged. You're forever changing cards to get the right stuff in the phone when you want it.
Not even with every man and his dog and their phone company betting their future on the Android platform? Motorola are betting their survival as a company on the Android platform and has said they have more than 10 different phone models coming in 2010 based on Android. Holy crap. That's not just a niche market, we're talking an avalanche of Android based phones, and not to mention other Android based devices (eBook readers like Barnes and Noble etc) coming within the next year.
Within a year practically every mobile phone carrier in the US will be selling Android phones, including AT&T.
And like phones on other OS's, most will be crap. And most won't sell well.
There will be maybe a half dozen that will do well, meaning a few million a year each. The rest will do what most other phones do that aren't really cheap for the mass market, which is to sell in the hundreds of thousands a year.
Apple may sell 35 million phones in calender year 2010, and maybe 40 to 45 million in 2011. More if the recession is gone.
That's a steep road to climb for Android. It will take a few years before they are in that bracket.