Apple's iPhone market share three times greater than Android in US

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  • Reply 81 of 265
    gftunagftuna Posts: 6member
    In the survey, did anybody take into account the buy 1, get one free effect on numbers. I think if AT&T ran a promotion like this, you would see vastly different numbers.
  • Reply 82 of 265
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by gftuna View Post


    In the survey, did anybody take into account the buy 1, get one free effect on numbers. I think if AT&T ran a promotion like this, you would see vastly different numbers.



    Welcome to the forum.



    That goes along with the profit the vendors will make, but per unit sales stand on their own regardless if a phone is free with contract or $1000.



    One thing I'd like to see is a clearer definition of 'smartphone'. I have a hard time seeing S60 as a smartphone OS in 2010 and the iPhone reportedly has a 72% marketshare in Japan though their numbers pale in comparison to the feature phones most common to that country.
  • Reply 83 of 265
    newbeenewbee Posts: 2,055member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by RationalTroll View Post




    And what does wading through this quagmire do for developers? Out of 200,000 apps, 199,900 of them are earning less than if the developer shut down their Mac and flipped burgers instead:

    http://appular.com/2010/04/the-ipad-...re-its-a-mess/



    Exaggeration is never a replacement for the truth.



    The link you thoughtfully provided is talking iPad apps only, not total App Store apps. So to try and use a combination of the two to create a post that you like makes me wonder:...if you're incompetent and didn't notice that ... or a liar and chose to ignore that, as it didn't support your post ... I'll leave it up for others to decide.



    I will, however, say one thing in you're favor ... your honest enough to use the word troll in your name ... but I would question your use of the word rational.
  • Reply 84 of 265
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Stevie View Post


    The entire medical establishment is rightly famous for being technologically illiterate. I dunno about the "lot of doctors" you saw.



    But if they are average doctors, their technology opinions are likely unreliable.



    And in this case likely to change.



    Right now they're excited about the form factor of the iPad, and today it's the only game in town in that regard. But by the end of summer there will be plenty of option available, and all devices but Apple's will be able to run many of the types of specialized apps those markets need because Apple is the only company in history to prohibit the proven cost-effectiveness of using cross-platform frameworks.



    It's not the OS. They all have accelerometers, GPS, multitouch, etc., and most of them will have multi-tasking while Apple offers only what amounts to a game of Freeze Tag.



    What matters is the apps. Jobs knows this, which is why he's making all these unprecedented moves to try to eliminate iPhone apps from profitably being deployed to any other OS. He has seemingly little confidence that Apple can sufficiently differentiate its product in an increasingly commoditized market, and instead is pushing to limit deployment options for app developers.



    But for all his flailing, developers and their VCs will go where they can make the most money relative to investment, and where they don't face unusual risk of losing that investment every time Apple updates their SDK license: within a year we'll begin to see the effects of limiting developers' workflow options on vertical markets like medical, engineering, education, and many others.



    In the meantime, those suffering from Stockholm Syndrome won't connect the dots between Apple's demonstrated untrustworthiness as a development partner and the downstream effects that lost trust has on developers. But it's coming just the same.
  • Reply 85 of 265
    cgc0202cgc0202 Posts: 624member
    The amazing thinh snout surveys, especially if it is so transient, is that you can expect all sorts of results. This is more true if you have not really gotten a chance to actually see the questions, the sampling methodology (and assumptions), and the actual raw data.



    This is more true with with surveys involving politics.



    Spin of results



    A RIM fanboy can also spin the results as follows:



    RIM phones beat Android by almost fourfold, Windows Mobile by almost two-fold and way ahead of the iPhone.



    Is it just possible that even a "rating agency" is capitalizing on the simple rivalry between the "passionate" fanbois of the iPhone and the Androids to boost readership in its own site?



    Margin of Error



    A rise and fall of 2%? What is the margin of error? Then, it goes back to the sampling and the nature of the survey again. Only a few weeks ago, one survey showed that the iPhone was ahead of Motorola, then another indicated the reverse. Hmmmm! Which to believe? Or, is it just the margin of error in the sampling of the population, or the data source?



    Just before the last election, there were tracking surveys by Fox News that showed the McCain-Palin ticket ahead of the Obama ticket. In November 3, 1948 some papers headlined:



    "Dewey defeats Truman"



    based on their trusted national polling of voters.





    CGC



    Edit: title should be "Spin"
  • Reply 86 of 265
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Stevie View Post


    What you may be remembering is a recent quarterly sales report where Android phones sold in greater numbers than the iPhone.



    Actually, that wasn't a sales report. It was a self-selecting survey with no indication that it had any validity.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by RationalTroll View Post


    Limiting the stats to just US sales appears to show iPhone growth on par with Android for the period covered. Limiting the stats to Cuperinto's zip code shows looks even better for iPhone.



    But once we take such arbitrary limitations away and look at the world as a whole, we see a different picture:



    iPhone

    1Q09: 10.5%

    1Q10: 15.5%

    Rate of growth:68%



    Android

    1Q09: 1.6

    1Q10: 9.6

    Rate of growth: 600%



    http://techcrunch.com/2010/05/19/iph...id-25-percent/



    Looking at the whole of sales worldwide, Android is outgrowing iPhone by almost an order of magnitude.



    Wow. So from your analysis, we can conclude that in Q1 2011, iPhone will have 26% market share and Android will have 78% market share. That means that everyone else put together has -4% market share. Right?



    Why don't you look at the growth rate at comparable points after their introduction? Go back to when Apple had 1.6% market share. What was their growth?



    Alternatively, you could look at the Nielsen numbers and compare how much of the available market each company captured. Apple captured 2% of the non-iPhone market (74% in the previous period. Android also captured 2% of the non-Android market, but that was a larger potential market (93%).



    Or, you could look at it and see that Apple's huge growth rate continued for a long time while Android's appears to be slowing down (they only gained 2% in Nielsen's data).



    But none of that would fit your Apple-hating agenda.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post


    Yeah I was just reading that today. Not sure I agree totally with his review but is isn't all that off on some issues. I do agree that 2.2 will offer some solid benefits but I don't really agree that Android users will have to "wait a long time" for updates.



    I mean even if you look at the time from 3.1 to 3.2 with the iPhone that was six months.



    Yet, for comparison, Android 1.5 or 1.6 is still the most popular version - long after 2.0 and 2.1 came out. In fact, reports are that the overwhelming majority of Android users NEVER upgrade their OS - because the upgrades just plain aren't available.



    You're confusing Google's release of an Android upgrade with a carrier releasing a version that real users can install.
  • Reply 87 of 265
    danielswdanielsw Posts: 906member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by newbee View Post


    Exaggeration is never I will, however, say one thing in you're favor ... your honest enough to use the word troll in your name ... but I would question your use of the word rational.



    I will question your use of the words "you're" and "your." You got them both wrong. In each of the first two cases you should have used the other. Learning how to spell enhances the credibility of your communications.
  • Reply 88 of 265
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by RationalTroll View Post


    http://gizmodo.com/5555853/the-apple...+%28Gizmodo%29



    And what does wading through this quagmire do for developers? Out of 200,000 apps, 199,900 of them are earning less than if the developer shut down their Mac and flipped burgers instead:

    http://appular.com/2010/04/the-ipad-...re-its-a-mess/



    ROTFLMAO. So 'RationalTroll' is a blatant liar. No surprise there.



    First, that survey covers only iPad apps, not the full 200,000 apps in the store. As of today, there are about 5,000 iPad apps, not 200,000. The top 10 iPad apps were each bringing in over $10,000 PER DAY.



    Second, that report was dated April 9 - less than a week after the iPad came out. IPad sales today are at least 4 times the number sold by April 9 - and growing daily.



    Third, your 'make more money flipping burgers' line is totally bogus - unless you know how many hours each developer is putting in. The top hundred are earning $800 per day - or over a quarter million dollars per year. Seems like quite a bit more than someone would make flipping burgers - especially since few of these developers are working full time. One of the top developers claimed that he spent about 2 weeks - and will gross close to a million dollars this year. How many Android developers can make that claim?



    Finally, where are the comparable numbers for Android apps? How do you expect to prove something from showing only iPad revenues without giving the comparison? Show us the revenues from Android app sales. Heck, weren't you one of the ones complaining that Apple was monopolizing the market because 96% of mobile App revenue went through Apple? How much money are all those Android app developers making?
  • Reply 89 of 265
    ghostface147ghostface147 Posts: 1,629member
    This is about the iPhone OS, not just iPhones. This would include the iPod touch. Either way, still a larger market share.
  • Reply 90 of 265
    extremeskaterextremeskater Posts: 2,248member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


    Yet, for comparison, Android 1.5 or 1.6 is still the most popular version - long after 2.0 and 2.1 came out. In fact, reports are that the overwhelming majority of Android users NEVER upgrade their OS - because the upgrades just plain aren't available.



    You're confusing Google's release of an Android upgrade with a carrier releasing a version that real users can install.



    No I understand that fact but that doesn't mean as Android grows and becomes more widely used that won't change. Remember Android based Phones are just now becoming popular. The more the demand for the phones and the software the updates will have to become more regular or Android will never truly gain ground.



    Putting aside the Nexus One, if HTC continues to dominate with the best Android phones then they will simply become the hardware supplier of choice.



    Not saying that the fragmentation doesn't have to end because that is a major factor.
  • Reply 91 of 265
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by newbee View Post


    Exaggeration is never a replacement for the truth.



    The link you thoughtfully provided is talking iPad apps only, not total App Store apps. So to try and use a combination of the two to create a post that you like makes me wonder:...if you're incompetent and didn't notice that ... or a liar and chose to ignore that, as it didn't support your post ... I'll leave it up for others to decide.



    I will, however, say one thing in you're favor ... your honest enough to use the word troll in your name ... but I would question your use of the word rational.



    Again with the personal attacks. And nitpicking screen names from a person who chose "solipsism"? Almost interesting.



    Yes, the link I provided was to an article very clearly titled as being about iPad apps.



    Yet not surprisingly the steeply L-shaped curve of overall App Stores sales apparently applies across the board:



    http://www.tuaw.com/2010/04/21/estim...ng-372k-a-day/



    http://www.cultofmac.com/developers-...e-number/15250



    http://taptaptap.com/blog/final-numbers-for-july/



    http://www.newsweek.com/2009/10/05/s...-for-that.html



    All discussion on this I can find shows that the top 100 apps are indeed doing very well, but below that the chasm drops precipitously, and the other 299,900 apps are pulling in revenues that range from less than the average Mac desktop developer to below minimum wage.



    If you can find stats showing the 50th percentile making above minimum wage I'd love to see 'em.
  • Reply 92 of 265
    steviestevie Posts: 956member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    Now you aren't even standing behind your own statements.



    Which statements won't I stand behind? This is starting to get bizarre.
  • Reply 93 of 265
    newbeenewbee Posts: 2,055member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post


    I don't think I have been that over the top lately. I have dialed it back a good bit...lol. Well except with Quadra.



    Ha ha ... I know what you mean, altho' with me it's not Quadra but two others, that shall remain nameless.

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post


    When you are talking about dumbing down an OS, I would say Android/Google doesn't get into that.



    Perhaps 'dumbing down" is not the proper expression ... I just mean that by having an OS that tries to be on everyone else's device, then, by design, at some point, it has to work on the "bottom feeders" ... not sure I've made that any clearer but, hey, work with me on this. lol

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post


    Microsoft for some reason just can't change and they are dying because of it.



    I think that's a by product of making money in spite of yourself ... the necessity to innovate and change just isn't there until it's almost too late ... witness the shakeup of MSFT's mobile staff, with Ballmer taking over ... didn't he say not so long ago .... "I like our strategy, I like it a lot".



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post


    Will Android in total pass the iPhone I guess it can at some point, but I'm not really sure that important other then it will give all of us better smartphones no matter what option we go with at the time.



    Totally agree.

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post


    It would be nice if sites started to move rapidly away from Flash, which I know isn't going to happen or Apple and Adobe would find a way to work things out. Which doesn't seem in the cards right now.



    I think the marketplace is going to decide that issue one way or the other relatively soon ... 2-3 years is my guess.
  • Reply 94 of 265
    steviestevie Posts: 956member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ghostface147 View Post


    This is about the iPhone OS, not just iPhones. This would include the iPod touch. Either way, still a larger market share.



    "a bigger market share" than what?



    RIM's OS? Symbian?



    Are you sure about that?
  • Reply 95 of 265
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


    Wow. So from your analysis, we can conclude that in Q1 2011, iPhone will have 26% market share and Android will have 78% market share. That means that everyone else put together has -4% market share. Right?



    Not at all, for the good reasons you noted.



    Instead, Gartner supports Solipsism's estimate that "I expect Android to be much larger marketshare than iPhone after it matures" by accounting for the factors you described to come up with these projected figures for 2012:





    http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...e_by_2012.html
  • Reply 96 of 265
    gregoriusmgregoriusm Posts: 513member
    Statistics. Or more pointedly.. A statistic. It's like the English language. Try and figure out what it is really saying.



    Frankly, there have been some great points, and some wildly narrow minded points, but slightly off topic although relevant in many ways, in my opinion, is what Steve Jobs said in his D8 interview when asked to comment about the fact that Apple now has as big a market capitalization as Microsoft.



    He said, and I'm sure I don't have the exact words: "That doesn't matter."



    So, what I'm alluding to, and has been pointed out by at least a couple of people here, is that Apple really doesn't care about having the biggest market share in any region, just as its CEO doesn't care about having the largest market capitalization.



    He, and I believe, that if you keep making great products, the rest will take care of itself. (I believe he said something to that effect recently too.)



    Apple doesn't need market share, based upon any piece of statistic, to be great, hugely profitable, and sustainable.



    Greg





    P.S. I am an Apple enthusiast but am glad that there are some good options out there.
  • Reply 97 of 265
    steviestevie Posts: 956member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by GregoriusM View Post


    He, and I believe, that if you keep making great products, the rest will take care of itself.



    The antitrust enforcers are now checking things out to see if Apple may have fallen off the wagon. There are allegations that they are using unfair tactics to stifle competition, rather than doing what you identify.
  • Reply 98 of 265
    newbeenewbee Posts: 2,055member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by RationalTroll View Post


    within a year we'll begin to see the effects of limiting developers' workflow options on vertical markets like medical, engineering, education, and many others.



    Great! ... So take a hike for a year and then come back and say you told me so ... if you can.
  • Reply 99 of 265
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by newbee View Post


    Quote:

    Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

    It would be nice if sites started to move rapidly away from Flash, which I know isn't going to happen or Apple and Adobe would find a way to work things out. Which doesn't seem in the cards right now.



    Totally agree.



    I think the marketplace is going to decide that issue one way or the other relatively soon ... 2-3 years is my guess.



    That's one of the most balanced comments on the subject ever written in these forums.



    Most comments on Jobs vs. Flash tend toward extremes, in which Flash is either presented as the Savior of the Web or the Satan of All Things. It is, of course, neither.



    But what Flash is is a way to deliver interactive and video content across an overwhelming majority (compatible with 90+%?) of the browsers in use today.



    HTML5 will be very valuable for a great many reasons, but as Apple made unquestionably clear with the demo they rolled out last week it will only run on a slender percentage of browsers people are actually using.



    Your suggestion of a transitional phase of 2-3 years is spot-on IMO, a balanced view between the desire for HTML5 which is not yet implemented in browsers, and the simple business sense of not retooling an entire web site just to make Safari look good.
  • Reply 100 of 265
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Stevie View Post


    The antitrust enforcers are now checking things out to see if Apple may have fallen off the wagon. There are allegations that they are using unfair tactics to stifle competition, rather than doing what you identify.



    I doubt that will happen, both for the reasons Reich argued for and the more basic one that antitrust rules have never been previously applied to any company which doesn't control at least 40% of the market. Apple said three weeks ago that they currently have only 16.1% of the mobile market.
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