Apple seen shipping just 450K 12" MacBooks in 1H of 2015, as radical design may temper demand

Posted:
in Current Mac Hardware edited March 2015
Apple's latest notebook may need some time to meet the lofty sales bar set by its siblings, according to KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, as the relatively high price and unconventional port arrangement could temper demand at the outset.




The all-new MacBook's single USB-C port may be a sticking point for some consumers, Kuo said in a Wednesday morning note to investors reviewed by AppleInsider, as the ecosystem surrounding the diminutive connector is still in its nascent stages and the need for expansion dongles may prove inconvenient. This, combined with its high starting price relative to the MacBook Air and expected constraints on supply, may mean that Apple could sell as few as 450,000 new MacBooks in the first half of this year.

That would represent just a sliver of Apple's overall Mac sales, which are likely to top 10 million for the first two quarters of 2015.

Apple's latest MacBook packs a single USB-C port along with a headphone jack, a 12-inch Retina display, 8 gigabytes of RAM, and a new Intel Core M processor into a package less than half as thick as the already-svelte MacBook Air. It also includes a brand new keyboard and clickless "Force Touch" trackpad that borrows technology from the Apple Watch.

The new device starts at $1,299, compared to just $899 and $999 for the 11- and 13-inch MacBook Airs, respectively. Those laptops, which were given updated internals earlier this week, do not boast Retina displays.

Despite potentially weak initial sales, Kuo believes that the new MacBook is likely to find increased success down the road as the USB-C ecosystem matures and consumers begin to refocus on buying thinner and lighter devices.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 187
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 33,408member
    Kuo is full of it. The MacBook Air was a smash, mainly due to the lightness.
  • Reply 2 of 187
    Sad that they weren't able to invent a USB-C connector using MagSafe. One of their absolute best inventions and it's now discarded. Too bad...
  • Reply 3 of 187
    I needed a retina computer that was thinner than the RMBP but could be upgraded to I7... This new lineup is really disappointing for me.

    They could've easily out a retina display into the air but they decided to make a brand new line.. Zzz
  • Reply 4 of 187
    frykefryke Posts: 217member

    Demand is high. Plenty of questions by customers here. I guess we'll sell much more 12" MacBooks being sold than MBAs. (If anything, it's the surviving MBAs that hinder the new MB.)

  • Reply 5 of 187
    The screen is too small, quite simply.

    A laptop should be at least 13". I think Apple should offer 13", 15" and 17" sizes only.
  • Reply 6 of 187

    I would like to know if this Macbook will have AptX (CD-quality) audio via its Bluetooth 4.0, if anyone knows.....

  • Reply 7 of 187
    frugality wrote: »
    I would like to know if this Macbook will have AptX (CD-quality) audio via its Bluetooth 4.0, if anyone knows.....

    I don't know. It still has a 3.5mm jack though.


    Amd demand for this will surprise little Ming-Chi.
  • Reply 8 of 187
    I know it ships in April. Does anyone know when I can order this stunner?
  • Reply 9 of 187
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post



    Apple's latest notebook may need some time to meet the lofty sales bar set by its siblings, according to KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, as the relatively high price and unconventional port arrangement could temper demand at the outset.

     





    The all-new MacBook's single USB-C port may be a sticking point for some consumers, Kuo said in a Wednesday morning note to investors reviewed by AppleInsider, as the ecosystem surrounding the diminutive connector is still in its nascent stages and the need for expansion dongles may prove inconvenient. This, combined with its high starting price relative to the MacBook Air and expected constraints on supply, may mean that Apple could sell as few as 450,000 new MacBooks in the first half of this year.



    That would represent just a sliver of Apple's overall Mac sales, which are likely to top 10 million for the first two quarters of 2015.



    Apple's latest MacBook packs a single USB-C port along with a headphone jack, a 12-inch Retina display, 8 gigabytes of RAM, and a new Intel Core M processor into a package less than half as thick as the already-svelte MacBook Air. It also includes a brand new keyboard and clickless "Force Touch" trackpad that borrows technology from the Apple Watch.



    The new device starts at $1,299, compared to just $899 and $999 for the 11- and 13-inch MacBook Airs, respectively. Those laptops, which were given updated internals earlier this week, do not boast Retina displays.



    Despite potentially weak initial sales, Kuo believes that the new MacBook is likely to find increased success down the road as the USB-C ecosystem matures and consumers begin to refocus on buying thinner and lighter devices.

     

    Saying Kuo is for of shhhhhhiiiiiiiiit is an euphemism,

  • Reply 10 of 187
    mpantonempantone Posts: 1,609member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Benjamin Frost View Post



    The screen is too small, quite simply.



    A laptop should be at least 13". I think Apple should offer 13", 15" and 17" sizes only.



    The smallest, lightest MacBook has historically been the top selling model. At the time it was axed, the 12" PowerBook G4 was the best selling notebook in Apple's lineup.

     

    Even at Apple's corporate headquarters, employees who have a choice overwhelmingly opt for the 11" MacBook Air as their primary computer. At their desks, they just plug into a monitor, etc., use Bluetooth keyboards, trackpads, etc.

     

    The 12" MacBook will be even better a year from now when USB-C accessories have better availability. 

     

    That said, today, I could survive with the HDMI/USB dongle.

  • Reply 11 of 187
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    zelmung wrote: »
    I needed a retina computer that was thinner than the RMBP but could be upgraded to I7... This new lineup is really disappointing for me.

    They could've easily out a retina display into the air but they decided to make a brand new line.. Zzz

    Then what's the point of the 13" rMBP? You make the current Airs retina and you kill rMBP sales.
  • Reply 12 of 187
    The screen is too small, quite simply.

    A laptop should be at least 13". I think Apple should offer 13", 15" and 17" sizes only.

    You do realize this retina MacBook has a resolution of 2304 x 1440 which is greater than the 17" MacBook Pro offered in 2007 which had a resolution of 1680 x 1050 don't you? For something that sits in your lap a bigger screen isn't all that important, a higher resolution is much better because you're able to have the benefits of an old, large sized screen in a much smaller package.
  • Reply 13 of 187

    I love MagSafe, but it has faults too.  Some of the charger cable and contacts developed intermittent problems over time and I had to buy new ones.

     

    I think part of the reason for USB-C was respond to oft criticized proprietary charger and cables, and if the battery lasts 10 hours, do you really need to plug it in at all times?

     

    The new MacBook is also meant as the new entry-level MacBook and like other people on the Internet, it is not design for today's users, but ahead of its time by 1 to 2 years.  Most accessory you need are already wireless anyway, you just haven't bought them yet.

  • Reply 14 of 187
    mpantonempantone Posts: 1,609member
    Quote:



    Originally Posted by GadgetCanadaV2 View Post

    I know it ships in April. Does anyone know when I can order this stunner?

     

    For now, only Apple.

  • Reply 15 of 187
    The screen is too small, quite simply.

    A laptop should be at least 13". I think Apple should offer 13", 15" and 17" sizes only.

    I would have preferred a 13 inch screen as well. However, I am more curious as to the performance of the new CPU. I don't expect miracles due to the the MacBook being fan-less but would like to see where it ranks performance-wise.
  • Reply 16 of 187
    512ke512ke Posts: 782member
    Did the lack of a DVD drive slow MBA sales? Not even for a second.

    Same deal here. I predict that this new puter will fly off the shelves.
  • Reply 17 of 187
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    fryke wrote: »
    Demand is high. Plenty of questions by customers here. I guess we'll sell much more 12" MacBooks being sold than MBAs. (If anything, it's the surviving MBAs that hinder the new MB.)

    Go on Instagram and do a search for #macbook. I saw TONS of posts and comments from people drooling over this device, especially the gold one. Heck, I don't own a Mac and I want one so bad. I expect sales to be soft initially because of the price but once Apple can get this to under $1K I think they'll be flying off the shelves. Honestly I could see this impacting iPad sales more than anything in the long run.
  • Reply 18 of 187
    bsimpsenbsimpsen Posts: 353member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

     
    Apple's latest MacBook packs a single USB-C port along with a headphone jack, a 12-inch Retina display, 8 gigabytes of RAM, and a new Intel Core M processor into a package less than half as thick as the already-svelte MacBook Air.


     

    Nope.

    The new MacBook is 0.52" thick.

    The MacBook Airs (both sizes) are 0.68".

  • Reply 19 of 187
    blastdoorblastdoor Posts: 2,439member

    At this point, 1H 2015 really means Q2 2015 (calendar quarter, that is). 450k out of 5M is 9 percent. If about 75% of Macs are laptops, that means about 12 percent of Mac laptops sold in the quarter. 

     

    I actually think that's pretty reasonable. Remember that this is competing against the rest of the Mac lineup, which includes the 13" rMBP for the same price but a much stronger spec sheet (except, of course, for weight). 

     

    I'm sure there are some hard core road warriors who will love the new MacBook -- particularly people who have been using an iPad for its size/weight but would really rather use a Mac. But this is kind of a niche. 

  • Reply 20 of 187
    zoetmbzoetmb Posts: 2,586member

    Even though I agree that it should have had more than one port and the machine also seems a bit underpowered from a processor standpoint, I think this machine is still going to sell incredibly well and be a big hit - in fact, I think it will do better than the Air, even though I don't consider it a machine for me.   I think that there will be a tremendous number of people who look at the size, slimness, light weight and overall design and want this thing as well as those who want the latest thing and are captivated by the force touch functionality and/or the new keyboard.

     

    I was in a store the other day and the Surface Pro 3 was going for $1500 without a keyboard.   I've been working with microcomputers of all brands and OS's since 1980 and I could not always get the Surface to do what I wanted.   And while the keyboard was vastly improved over earlier models, it still sucked.    The new Mac seems like a bargain compared to this machine.

     

    There will always be some who want a bigger screen, tons of ports, high capacity storage, etc.   (I'm one of them).   But that doesn't mean that there isn't a huge market for a machine like this one.   But if  Apple makes another one just like it, but with a larger display, they should definitely add at least one other port and/or separate power from the USB-C port.    Obsessing over slimness and then forcing users to use a large dongle doesn't make sense to me. 

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