MWSF keynotes are more "big picture," and there are some clues not only in what has been updated, but in what has not been updated. Oddly, I remember talking about all these things here years and years ago. Progress is always so much slower than you'd like it to be.
For example, the ACDs. Sure, you could pussyfoot around and tweak the brightness or switch to LED backlighting or even OLED, but that's not where the real action is. What I believe Apple is waiting for is resolution independence. They already have a 160ppi screen out in the wild. That's just the beginning. Unless there continues to be enough of a delay in app compatibility, and/or too small an installed base, I think it's a safe bet that the ACDs will go high-density and we'll be weaned away from talking about monitors as if there were a strict correlation between the number of pixels and the size of the desktop. It'll be about resolution as the word is more generally understood: how crisply does the monitor render a desktop of a given physical size (inches, not pixels)?
FireWire 3200 will definitely bring this technology back from defeat at the hands of USB 2.0. This is also the technology I remember excitedly talking about back in... what was it, 2000? Ah, optimism. At this speed you're not talking about a peripheral connector, although it can certainly connect peripherals. It's a high-bandwidth and (presumably, given its heritage) a low-latency, isochronous connector that really can connect peers together in ways that used to require motherboard traces and close physical proximity. This is way beyond video cameras. To give you some idea, we used to talk about cube-shaped computers (general purpose and specialized) with FireWire jacks on each side that would connect like Legos, that kind of thing. There are some things that will remain beyond its capability (video cards? although if that is possible it would be awesome) but it has the distinct possibility of changing the way that computers are added to and expanded in profound and fundamental ways. Or I could be getting flashbacks from the really good stuff we were all smoking back then as Motorola struggled to ship 500MHz chips.
DVD? What's that? Seriously, Jobs dissed the DVD in his last keynote as an archaism. It's not just that HD is split into warring camps, it's that directors don't like it (David Lynch pointed out that you'd prefer that the audience can't see the wood screws in what's supposed to be a metal surface) and producers won't either once they see the additional production and post-production costs associated with producing convincing HD; porn stars don't like it because you can, well, see all the warts and stretch marks and cellulite and a little too much detail; both standards require that the display use the same insane, paranoid copy-protection scheme that the players and discs use; and with the exception of sports everything is going in the exact opposite direction, toward relatively low-def, on-demand, frequently indie video viewed on portable devices. Therefore I predict that Apple will maintain a pox-on-both-your-houses attitude and continue to ship DVD-R standard until the infrastructure is finally in place to allow Jobs to eliminate physical media altogether (not that I'm predicting that that will actually happen any sooner than the paperless office will).
The Mac Pro will get a major keynote update when there's something major to announce. "It's still a big workstation, but now it's faster!" is not worth more than a few seconds out of keynote at most, even if the increased speed comes from a fresh processor line from Intel or nVIDIA. It's more likely to be a press release. The only way the Mac Pro will see a starring role is if it has some part to play in the big picture. DItto the iMac and the rest of the Mac quadrant.
iPhone/iPod Touch? Now that's where the action is right now. This platform is the incubator for a new generation of personal computers. It's going to get some love because it's so new and so game-changing that every development is of interest to the big picture.
Apple or not it won't sell at that price. The whole problem with these machines is the price you pay for what is a very compromised platform.
Quote:
How about:
Oh, and one more thing...
*We added an aluminum case to the Asus eee PC, followed the instructable to load OSX and are charging you $1899 for it!
In a nut shell the Eee PC points out what the public perception of the worth of these machine is. No one, with a reasonable value system, is going to pay full system price for a machine that is not all there.
The Mac Pro will get a major keynote update when there's something major to announce. "It's still a big workstation, but now it's faster!" is not worth more than a few seconds out of keynote at most, even if the increased speed comes from a fresh processor line from Intel or nVIDIA. It's more likely to be a press release. The only way the Mac Pro will see a starring role is if it has some part to play in the big picture. DItto the iMac and the rest of the Mac quadrant.
I don't disagree with your point, and, frankly, I don't care if the Mac Pro is mentioned in the keynote or not as long as it is updated with a new motherboard, Penryn CPUs and a new range of GPUs. Although for my illustrator and PhotoShop work the GPU is really not important at all.
I don't care if it gets a new look or not, and new ACDs would be nice but they are not keeping me from dropping $4,000 USD on a new system...
I just won't pay a premium for two-year-old tech. If there is no update and no news of an update, it's eBay for me. I can't wait any longer.
P.S. Thelonius great choice of a screen name, I love his music.
- Mac Pros will receive a minor bump. It won't be mentioned in the Keynote but rather through a press release. They will gain Blu-Ray superdrives.
- MacBooks will go aluminum (available in silver and black) and gain a modest speed bump.
- MacBook Pros will receive a facelift and speed bump including a new keyboard to match the MacBooks and new iMac keyboard. They will also gain the option for Blu-ray.
- New MacBook Mini with docking solution outlined in the patents. The laptop itself will not have an optical drive; the docking station will have an optical drive and extra hard drive option.
- Apple TV will receive the ability to purchase directly from the iTunes store.
- iTunes 8 / Movie Rentals
- Overview of iPhone SDK, release of iPhone 1.2 (1.1.3) firmware
Comments
For example, the ACDs. Sure, you could pussyfoot around and tweak the brightness or switch to LED backlighting or even OLED, but that's not where the real action is. What I believe Apple is waiting for is resolution independence. They already have a 160ppi screen out in the wild. That's just the beginning. Unless there continues to be enough of a delay in app compatibility, and/or too small an installed base, I think it's a safe bet that the ACDs will go high-density and we'll be weaned away from talking about monitors as if there were a strict correlation between the number of pixels and the size of the desktop. It'll be about resolution as the word is more generally understood: how crisply does the monitor render a desktop of a given physical size (inches, not pixels)?
FireWire 3200 will definitely bring this technology back from defeat at the hands of USB 2.0. This is also the technology I remember excitedly talking about back in... what was it, 2000? Ah, optimism.
DVD? What's that? Seriously, Jobs dissed the DVD in his last keynote as an archaism. It's not just that HD is split into warring camps, it's that directors don't like it (David Lynch pointed out that you'd prefer that the audience can't see the wood screws in what's supposed to be a metal surface) and producers won't either once they see the additional production and post-production costs associated with producing convincing HD; porn stars don't like it because you can, well, see all the warts and stretch marks and cellulite and a little too much detail; both standards require that the display use the same insane, paranoid copy-protection scheme that the players and discs use; and with the exception of sports everything is going in the exact opposite direction, toward relatively low-def, on-demand, frequently indie video viewed on portable devices. Therefore I predict that Apple will maintain a pox-on-both-your-houses attitude and continue to ship DVD-R standard until the infrastructure is finally in place to allow Jobs to eliminate physical media altogether (not that I'm predicting that that will actually happen any sooner than the paperless office will).
The Mac Pro will get a major keynote update when there's something major to announce. "It's still a big workstation, but now it's faster!" is not worth more than a few seconds out of keynote at most, even if the increased speed comes from a fresh processor line from Intel or nVIDIA. It's more likely to be a press release. The only way the Mac Pro will see a starring role is if it has some part to play in the big picture. DItto the iMac and the rest of the Mac quadrant.
iPhone/iPod Touch? Now that's where the action is right now. This platform is the incubator for a new generation of personal computers. It's going to get some love because it's so new and so game-changing that every development is of interest to the big picture.
Oh, and one more thing...
[[*]Priced from $1899[/LIST]
Apple or not it won't sell at that price. The whole problem with these machines is the price you pay for what is a very compromised platform.
How about:
Oh, and one more thing...
*We added an aluminum case to the Asus eee PC, followed the instructable to load OSX and are charging you $1899 for it!
In a nut shell the Eee PC points out what the public perception of the worth of these machine is. No one, with a reasonable value system, is going to pay full system price for a machine that is not all there.
Dave
The Mac Pro will get a major keynote update when there's something major to announce. "It's still a big workstation, but now it's faster!" is not worth more than a few seconds out of keynote at most, even if the increased speed comes from a fresh processor line from Intel or nVIDIA. It's more likely to be a press release. The only way the Mac Pro will see a starring role is if it has some part to play in the big picture. DItto the iMac and the rest of the Mac quadrant.
I don't disagree with your point, and, frankly, I don't care if the Mac Pro is mentioned in the keynote or not as long as it is updated with a new motherboard, Penryn CPUs and a new range of GPUs. Although for my illustrator and PhotoShop work the GPU is really not important at all.
I don't care if it gets a new look or not, and new ACDs would be nice but they are not keeping me from dropping $4,000 USD on a new system...
I just won't pay a premium for two-year-old tech. If there is no update and no news of an update, it's eBay for me. I can't wait any longer.
P.S. Thelonius great choice of a screen name, I love his music.
- Mac Pros will receive a minor bump. It won't be mentioned in the Keynote but rather through a press release. They will gain Blu-Ray superdrives.
- MacBooks will go aluminum (available in silver and black) and gain a modest speed bump.
- MacBook Pros will receive a facelift and speed bump including a new keyboard to match the MacBooks and new iMac keyboard. They will also gain the option for Blu-ray.
- New MacBook Mini with docking solution outlined in the patents. The laptop itself will not have an optical drive; the docking station will have an optical drive and extra hard drive option.
- Apple TV will receive the ability to purchase directly from the iTunes store.
- iTunes 8 / Movie Rentals
- Overview of iPhone SDK, release of iPhone 1.2 (1.1.3) firmware
...
wow that would look great.
Oops, and it is a Tuesday.