I’ve had the pleasure of using iOS, Android and WP7. If I couldn’t have an iPhone I’d get an WP7-based device. It’s good and the flaws it does have are apparently being addressed right now with the promised OTA updates. We’ll have to see how much they’ve addressed them and what’s still missing — those reports should be filtering in this week and next — but it’s not a bad start for a new, modern OS. Certainly better than Android did out of the gate.
You also need to look at WM6 since the iPhone came on the scene. You don’t hear much of anything about WM devices yet it wasn’t until the second half of 2010 that they finally went below 10% marketshare. That’s 1 in 10 devices stopped being bases on Windows old and crusty mobile OS even with all the competition and knowledge that they were focusing on WP7 as their successor. They didn’t have a huge marketshare in 2007 as it was.
So tell me why, if they still had a 10%+ marketshare with WM^ when the iPhone 4 as released can they not increase their marketshare with a new OS that does something we’ve never seen MS do (actually think of the box) and a partnership with Nokia who does know how to make mobile HW. Counting out MS simply because you don’t like them is not objective.
We are talking about the same company right ? microshit right.
The very same ones who screwed up an update to samsung phones, mind you not a complex update, more of an update to ready the phone for a major release.
Have you used windoze shit in the past ? Did you like it ? If not, why would you trust the same bunch of imbeciles and slimy scum of the earth (I am being nice here) with phones ? Have you lost yoru marbles. We are talking about the same company that sent out a press release stating that some carriers may prevent/delay OS updates, is this anything different from android. Don't blame it on the carrier, iPhone are through carriers, but at least we get updates as planned.
I considered your posts in the past to be semi-intelligence, but man, you have really lost it now.
I'm constantly selecting content without meaning to. I go to swipe the page down and end up with a huge swatch of blue selected data. Annoying. And it irks me to no end that when I close an app it doesn't actually close the app. That I have to manually visit the task manager just to close a freaking app. Very poor design. Every app should be rewritten to have a big "close" button that can be used to actually close the application. And why does Apple waste so much of the screen with their task manager? Why just a ribbon of icons at the bottom 10% of the screen? HP's webOS at least as a nice looking task manager (card interface). It looks like Windows Phone is going to steal it. Both beat the hell out of Apple's implementation.
Me thinks you're not using it right. Just because an icon is in the multitask bar doesn't mean the app is open, working and using memory. It serves two purposes: 1) switching between paused apps (multitasking), and 2) easy access to frequently used apps.
If you get a 'select' highlight when swiping a web page up or down, you must have a slow, heavy swipe. I've never heard of that problem amongst the 30 or so iP 3 & 4 users I know.
Not a criticism, just making an objective observation about how you use.
Because i hate microshit with every fibre of my body. I despise them and cannot wait to see them go bankrupt. I cannot wait to have that ugly disgusting smirk wiped from ballmer's ugly fat mug.
They have made fun of Apple, cheated and back stabbed them, plus have to put up with all the shit from windoze loving fannies.
Having to use their garbage over the years, the pain and punishment.
When they are wiped into the dust, I will walk past and spit on it. Now do you understand.
at break even prices or loss for several years, the way MS did with XBox, and the product is XBox-like good, that is, better than Zune. They could do this and get a decent unit share. Of course profit share will be 0 (or less, whatever that means).
This could harm Android greatly as the little manufacturers could not afford to compete. Apple would not be affected, they'll still have huge mindshare and profit share.
Do I think it WILL happen? No. Whereas MS alone might summon the courage to sell an unprofitable product over a long period of time. I don't think the MS+Nokia duo will.
A new forecast of the global smartphone platform market from research firm IDC has predicted that Microsoft's Windows Phone platform will see a resurgence in the next four years, overtaking Apple's iOS platform which powers the iPhone.
IDC on Tuesday revealed its prediction that the worldwide smartphone market will grow 49.2 percent in 2011, with more than 450 million smartphones shipped. That would be a major increase from the 303.4 million units shipped in 2010.
IDC sees Apple's iOS taking 15.7 percent of global smartphone operating system market shipments in 2011. That would place Apple's platform which powers the iPhone in third place, behind market leader Android, with 39.5 percent, and Symbian, with 20.9 percent.
But despite the tremendous growth of the iPhone since it was introduced in 2007, IDC sees Apple's platform share actually dipping in global share by 2015 to 15.3 percent. Perhaps most surprising is the firm's prediction that Windows Phone 7 and Windows Mobile will grow to 20.9 percent of the market by 2015.
Growth of the multi-device Windows Phone platform is expected to be driven by Nokia's decision to adopt Microsoft's platform on its future mobile devices. Microsoft is said to be paying billions of dollars to Nokia in their arrangement.
"Up until the launch of Windows Phone 7 last year, Microsoft has steadily lost market share while other operating systems have brought forth new and appealing experiences," said Ramon Llamas, senior research analyst with IDC's Mobile Devices Technology and Trends team. "The new alliance brings together Nokia's hardware capabilities and Windows Phone's differentiated platform. We expect the first devices to launch in 2012. By 2015, IDC expects Windows Phone to be number 2 operating system worldwide behind Android."
Accordingly, IDC sees the share of Nokia's once-dominant Symbian platform dropping significantly by 2015. In the next four years, IDC sees Symbian representing just 0.2 percent of shipments.
IDC sees the smartphone market growing more than four times faster than the overall mobile phone market in the coming years. However, in the firm's projections, smartphones will not see market growth in 2011 as strong as it was in 2010.
"Android is poised to take over as the leading smartphone operating system in 2011 after racing into the number 2 position in 2010," Llamas said. "For the vendors who made Android the cornerstone of their smartphone strategies, 2010 was the coming-out party. This year will see a coronation party as these same vendors broaden and deepen their portfolios to reach more customers, particularly first-time smartphone users."
Earlier this year, IDC tracking found Apple to be the No. 2 global vendor of smartphones in terms of hardware sales. It found that Apple represented 16.1 percent of the smartphone market, trailing behind only Nokia, which represented an estimated 28 percent of hardware shipments in the fourth quarter of 2010.
From those wonderful folks who gave you Zune, Kin, Vista, Internet Explorer 7, PC Tablets and Steve Balmer?Windows 7 Mobile! It still can't do "cut" and "paste", HP will have WebOS alongside Widows on their computers; Google apps can do Office Apps in the "Cloud" and iPads and iPhones are everywhere. I haven't seen a Nokia phone in years.
Have you used [Windows] in the past? Did you like it ? If not, why would you trust the same [people] with phones?
WP7 is fantastic! The mobile paradigms they have implemented are class leading. If I couldn't have my iPhone I'd choose WP7 in a heartbeat over Android, Blackberry, Symbian or WebOS.
I could potentially even consider choosing it over the iPhone if it wasn't missing some critical features (like combined email, multitasking, tethering etc) they had a complete mobile platform like Apple does (i.e. iPhone + iPad) and a proven track record for updates.
Fortunately for Microsoft, it seems WP7 is just one of a number of fantastic products they have released lately. They are far more "hits" than "misses" these days. Especially when compared to the mid 2000's.
I wonder if you've ever considered your bias against the company is causing you to miss out on some great products, like all of the unfortunate people who avoided Apple for so many years because they assumed Apple products were for wankers and the technology illiterate. I'll remind you of your comment...
Quote:
Originally Posted by White Rabbit
Because i hate microshit with every fibre of my body. I despise them...when they are wiped into the dust, I will walk past and spit on it.
I see what you're saying. But then people don't line up to buy PCs and PCs crush Mac sales. The lines are an anomaly to Apple and sometimes a game system. But lines are like the sprint, not the marathon.
I could potentially even consider choosing it over the iPhone if it wasn't missing some critical features (like combined email....
I used to think the same thing on the unified inbox, but if you use live, it will combine multiple email accounts and integrate them seemlessly on WP7.
This analyst totally ignored HP webOS phones' relevancy, relegating it to the "Others" category. In my opinion HP webOS has a better strategy than WP7.
I used to think the same thing on the unified inbox, but if you use live, it will combine multiple email accounts and integrate them seemlessly on WP7.
I also dislike certain past MS products (WinXP), as well I'm not impressed in the least with their Win7, and do a great business consulting and helping people and businesses switch to Apple. Mostly because of "ease-of-use" and supporting these clients is easy for me as a small company. I've posted here many times and if you're in for Apple-praise and a serious cheer-up, search for 'em.
However, I have to agree with Soli's level-headed post regarding MS in the FUTURE. They are leading the way in the enterprise in many ways, such as HTML5 adoption and integration into their products, far better than Apple even. because businesses listen to MS, and because of their hooks into the enterprise, will always be relevant and not to be taken lightly. With or without Ball-mer.
Another thing to consider is this: as we all well know, business adoption is extremely slow, methodical, and conservative when moving towards new technologies. Witness how hard it (still) is for MS to move people away from WinXP. It's glacial. Individuals, as in consumers, can take a risk with new devices and software, where as an enterprise must be very careful. To that end, it is very possible and likely even, that MS is just taking their time... and maybe even... trying to get it right.
As far as I'm concerned, there is no better system TODAY, than Apple's Mac OSX and iOS devices, for consumers and small businesses. What the landscape will look like in 2015 is anyone's GUESS.
If Apple stops innovating or SJ leaves earlier than expected (or ____?)... or Google-Android never gets out of Beta, is hit with massive infections, or is forced into licensing due to losing the IP battle with Oracle... or RIM bellies-up as I've predicted for a while now.. all those potential scenarios leave the door open to the enterprise behemoth that MS STILL is and will be for some time to come.
IF nothing tragic happens, and MS's internal clock is running at the same speed as their big clients, just maybe, 2015 will be THEIR lucky year.
PS. from 1996 - 2006 I ran WinNT servers here and at assorted clients. At the time, there was nothing even close from Apple or anyone else, compared to the ease-of-use and up-time/maintenance of a well built machine. Who knows. Maybe they have it in them again to get me to use and recommend them.
4 years ago there was no iPhone (well, only very just!)
4 years ago there was no iPad
4 years ago there was no iOS
Yet these analysts feel that they will simply take the situation of the mobile market in 2011 and extend it forward until 2015 and come up with a reasonable take on what it will be like.
Imagine the prediction they would have come up with for 2010 if they had done the same thing in 2006 when none of the above devices had been announced.
This is why the rest of the industry is so confused because they think the future will be just like the past. Apple's philosophy is based around making the future different from the past.
Of course this is a general failing of seeing the future as just a projection of the past and is not limited to the tech industry alone.
4 years ago there was no iPhone (well, only very just!)
4 years ago there was no iPad
4 years ago there was no iOS
Yet these analysts feel that they will simply take the situation of the mobile market in 2011 and extend it forward until 2015 and come up with a reasonable take on what it will be like.
Imagine the prediction they would have come up with for 2010 if they had done the same thing in 2006 when none of the above devices had been announced.
This is why the rest of the industry is so confused because they think the future will be just like the past. Apple's philosophy is based around making the future different from the past.
Of course this is a general failing of seeing the future as just a projection of the past and is not limited to the tech industry alone.
They are not even good extrapolators = RIM is in free fall but will fall a mere 1% in the next 4. iOS grew expoentially to 15% from 0% in 4 years, stalled ( in market share) due to Android growth in the US and China in the last half year, and price issues, and are taking steps to rectify those problems. Nokia is falling in market share but in 2015 WP7 will be the same percent as Symbian was predicted to be.
Here's just one example: Apple grew by 100% last year in unit shipments of iPhones, Asymco assumes that every iPhone product will sell twice as many as the last one, IDC is predicting a 40% growth in the mobile market this year, meaning that Apple - despite moving aggressively into China, and onto multi-carrier in the US ( something which has doubled their market share) will grow a mere 40% this year ( either that or it falls back between 2011 and 2015). IDC are also predicting that iOS will grow at a compound average of 18% per year over the next 4 - as opposed to 100% for the last year - compared to 61.7% for WP7 based on figures pulled out of their asses.
Doesn't seem that obsured. There not saying WP7 will be No 1 or even half as popular as android.
The market is set to expand but given Androids current success it seems although Apple will sell more iPhones they will loose market share. Maybe with a cheaper version they will gain some back, but it's hard to see how they could differentiate the lower priced version enough to avoid canobolising the current iPhone. The iPhone also has a huge profit margin so a cheaper version also wouldn't be as profitable.
If WP7 succeeds then 20% seems realistic, if it doesn't they will be at 0%. But that doesn't mean Apple will pick up the 20%, most of it would likely go to Android.
4 years ago there was no iPhone (well, only very just!)
4 years ago there was no iPad
4 years ago there was no iOS
Yet these analysts feel that they will simply take the situation of the mobile market in 2011 and extend it forward until 2015 and come up with a reasonable take on what it will be like.
Imagine the prediction they would have come up with for 2010 if they had done the same thing in 2006 when none of the above devices had been announced.
This is why the rest of the industry is so confused because they think the future will be just like the past. Apple's philosophy is based around making the future different from the past.
Of course this is a general failing of seeing the future as just a projection of the past and is not limited to the tech industry alone.
That's all very true. Everyone was buying Moto Razr 4 years ago and had been for a while. iOS/Android/WP7 and all other smartphones could be back at 0%. People apparently only buy Apps for the first 3 months of owning a smartphone, so maybe we'll all be board of them in 2015.
Doesn't seem that obsured. There not saying WP7 will be No 1 or even half as popular as android.
The market is set to expand but given Androids current success it seems although Apple will sell more iPhones they will loose market share. Maybe with a cheaper version they will gain some back, but it's hard to see how they could differentiate the lower priced version enough to avoid canobolising the current iPhone. The iPhone also has a huge profit margin so a cheaper version also wouldn't be as profitable.
If WP7 succeeds then 20% seems realistic, if it doesn't they will be at 0%. But that doesn't mean Apple will pick up the 20%, most of it would likely go to Android.
Right. I am going to get a bit remedial. I actually think I know more about this both as a dev and an investor than IDC.
1) Apple sells a very low priced iPad, and a low priced iPod touch ( essentially the iPhone without the phone). Neither cannabilise the higher end market. They do that to protect their lower end. They will do that in the iPhone as well. This will obviously increase growth.
2) Apple has grown from 0-15% worldwide in 4 years, or so. In fact in less time than that in most markets, in fact. They are not on all carriers. Where they are - as in Europe - they are the biggest smartphone vendors. That this has not made headlines in the US speaks of US insularity. ( source: http://www.pocket-lint.com/news/3834...ndroid-europel)
3) Apple had 28% of the market in the US on one carrier. It has now moved to two. Eventually to all. Whenever it does that it sees it's market share double. Do IDC take any of that into account?
4) WP7 is nowhere in any market.
5) Apples "stagnation" - although it grew by 161% in Europe to last June, for instance - is relative to the market as a whole which doubled in the last year large;y driven by Android and iOS. IDC are now saying that Apple will merely grow by 18% per year, compounded. This 18% is as plucked out of their ass as the WP7 figures.
6) Meanwhile RIM - which is in market share decline - will stay at 16%. No reason given. In this case they are not even extrapolating.
7) IDC has given to thought as to where Apple are losing to Android ( basically China , and the US - well that is stagnation) and to why this is going to change soon. Apple are moving aggressively into China and a recent report shows that the iPhone is the most desired phone there. (http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/03/...ains-in-china/)
I could go on. Suffice to say I am better at this than IDC, and I am just a guy on t'internet. Rubbish report.
Comments
I’ve had the pleasure of using iOS, Android and WP7. If I couldn’t have an iPhone I’d get an WP7-based device. It’s good and the flaws it does have are apparently being addressed right now with the promised OTA updates. We’ll have to see how much they’ve addressed them and what’s still missing — those reports should be filtering in this week and next — but it’s not a bad start for a new, modern OS. Certainly better than Android did out of the gate.
You also need to look at WM6 since the iPhone came on the scene. You don’t hear much of anything about WM devices yet it wasn’t until the second half of 2010 that they finally went below 10% marketshare. That’s 1 in 10 devices stopped being bases on Windows old and crusty mobile OS even with all the competition and knowledge that they were focusing on WP7 as their successor. They didn’t have a huge marketshare in 2007 as it was.
So tell me why, if they still had a 10%+ marketshare with WM^ when the iPhone 4 as released can they not increase their marketshare with a new OS that does something we’ve never seen MS do (actually think of the box) and a partnership with Nokia who does know how to make mobile HW. Counting out MS simply because you don’t like them is not objective.
We are talking about the same company right ? microshit right.
The very same ones who screwed up an update to samsung phones, mind you not a complex update, more of an update to ready the phone for a major release.
Have you used windoze shit in the past ? Did you like it ? If not, why would you trust the same bunch of imbeciles and slimy scum of the earth (I am being nice here) with phones ? Have you lost yoru marbles. We are talking about the same company that sent out a press release stating that some carriers may prevent/delay OS updates, is this anything different from android. Don't blame it on the carrier, iPhone are through carriers, but at least we get updates as planned.
I considered your posts in the past to be semi-intelligence, but man, you have really lost it now.
I never knew you were a ballmer arse-licker.
i think wp7 is already a number two.
lol !
I'm constantly selecting content without meaning to. I go to swipe the page down and end up with a huge swatch of blue selected data. Annoying. And it irks me to no end that when I close an app it doesn't actually close the app. That I have to manually visit the task manager just to close a freaking app. Very poor design. Every app should be rewritten to have a big "close" button that can be used to actually close the application. And why does Apple waste so much of the screen with their task manager? Why just a ribbon of icons at the bottom 10% of the screen? HP's webOS at least as a nice looking task manager (card interface). It looks like Windows Phone is going to steal it. Both beat the hell out of Apple's implementation.
Me thinks you're not using it right. Just because an icon is in the multitask bar doesn't mean the app is open, working and using memory. It serves two purposes: 1) switching between paused apps (multitasking), and 2) easy access to frequently used apps.
If you get a 'select' highlight when swiping a web page up or down, you must have a slow, heavy swipe. I've never heard of that problem amongst the 30 or so iP 3 & 4 users I know.
Not a criticism, just making an objective observation about how you use.
Because i hate microshit with every fibre of my body. I despise them and cannot wait to see them go bankrupt. I cannot wait to have that ugly disgusting smirk wiped from ballmer's ugly fat mug.
They have made fun of Apple, cheated and back stabbed them, plus have to put up with all the shit from windoze loving fannies.
Having to use their garbage over the years, the pain and punishment.
When they are wiped into the dust, I will walk past and spit on it. Now do you understand.
Mate, you need some serious help.
That, I do understand.
This could harm Android greatly as the little manufacturers could not afford to compete. Apple would not be affected, they'll still have huge mindshare and profit share.
Do I think it WILL happen? No. Whereas MS alone might summon the courage to sell an unprofitable product over a long period of time. I don't think the MS+Nokia duo will.
A new forecast of the global smartphone platform market from research firm IDC has predicted that Microsoft's Windows Phone platform will see a resurgence in the next four years, overtaking Apple's iOS platform which powers the iPhone.
IDC on Tuesday revealed its prediction that the worldwide smartphone market will grow 49.2 percent in 2011, with more than 450 million smartphones shipped. That would be a major increase from the 303.4 million units shipped in 2010.
IDC sees Apple's iOS taking 15.7 percent of global smartphone operating system market shipments in 2011. That would place Apple's platform which powers the iPhone in third place, behind market leader Android, with 39.5 percent, and Symbian, with 20.9 percent.
But despite the tremendous growth of the iPhone since it was introduced in 2007, IDC sees Apple's platform share actually dipping in global share by 2015 to 15.3 percent. Perhaps most surprising is the firm's prediction that Windows Phone 7 and Windows Mobile will grow to 20.9 percent of the market by 2015.
Growth of the multi-device Windows Phone platform is expected to be driven by Nokia's decision to adopt Microsoft's platform on its future mobile devices. Microsoft is said to be paying billions of dollars to Nokia in their arrangement.
"Up until the launch of Windows Phone 7 last year, Microsoft has steadily lost market share while other operating systems have brought forth new and appealing experiences," said Ramon Llamas, senior research analyst with IDC's Mobile Devices Technology and Trends team. "The new alliance brings together Nokia's hardware capabilities and Windows Phone's differentiated platform. We expect the first devices to launch in 2012. By 2015, IDC expects Windows Phone to be number 2 operating system worldwide behind Android."
Accordingly, IDC sees the share of Nokia's once-dominant Symbian platform dropping significantly by 2015. In the next four years, IDC sees Symbian representing just 0.2 percent of shipments.
IDC sees the smartphone market growing more than four times faster than the overall mobile phone market in the coming years. However, in the firm's projections, smartphones will not see market growth in 2011 as strong as it was in 2010.
"Android is poised to take over as the leading smartphone operating system in 2011 after racing into the number 2 position in 2010," Llamas said. "For the vendors who made Android the cornerstone of their smartphone strategies, 2010 was the coming-out party. This year will see a coronation party as these same vendors broaden and deepen their portfolios to reach more customers, particularly first-time smartphone users."
Earlier this year, IDC tracking found Apple to be the No. 2 global vendor of smartphones in terms of hardware sales. It found that Apple represented 16.1 percent of the smartphone market, trailing behind only Nokia, which represented an estimated 28 percent of hardware shipments in the fourth quarter of 2010.
From those wonderful folks who gave you Zune, Kin, Vista, Internet Explorer 7, PC Tablets and Steve Balmer?Windows 7 Mobile! It still can't do "cut" and "paste", HP will have WebOS alongside Widows on their computers; Google apps can do Office Apps in the "Cloud" and iPads and iPhones are everywhere. I haven't seen a Nokia phone in years.
Does anyone really know what these two operating systems will look like 4 years from now??
IDC is pure speculation.
Have you used [Windows] in the past? Did you like it ? If not, why would you trust the same [people] with phones?
WP7 is fantastic! The mobile paradigms they have implemented are class leading. If I couldn't have my iPhone I'd choose WP7 in a heartbeat over Android, Blackberry, Symbian or WebOS.
I could potentially even consider choosing it over the iPhone if it wasn't missing some critical features (like combined email, multitasking, tethering etc) they had a complete mobile platform like Apple does (i.e. iPhone + iPad) and a proven track record for updates.
Fortunately for Microsoft, it seems WP7 is just one of a number of fantastic products they have released lately. They are far more "hits" than "misses" these days. Especially when compared to the mid 2000's.
I wonder if you've ever considered your bias against the company is causing you to miss out on some great products, like all of the unfortunate people who avoided Apple for so many years because they assumed Apple products were for wankers and the technology illiterate. I'll remind you of your comment...
Because i hate microshit with every fibre of my body. I despise them...when they are wiped into the dust, I will walk past and spit on it.
I see what you're saying. But then people don't line up to buy PCs and PCs crush Mac sales. The lines are an anomaly to Apple and sometimes a game system. But lines are like the sprint, not the marathon.
True, dat
I could potentially even consider choosing it over the iPhone if it wasn't missing some critical features (like combined email....
I used to think the same thing on the unified inbox, but if you use live, it will combine multiple email accounts and integrate them seemlessly on WP7.
I used to think the same thing on the unified inbox, but if you use live, it will combine multiple email accounts and integrate them seemlessly on WP7.
Seems I learn something new every day
"Woah ya darn wabbit... you need some help!"
I also dislike certain past MS products (WinXP), as well I'm not impressed in the least with their Win7, and do a great business consulting and helping people and businesses switch to Apple. Mostly because of "ease-of-use" and supporting these clients is easy for me as a small company. I've posted here many times and if you're in for Apple-praise and a serious cheer-up, search for 'em.
However, I have to agree with Soli's level-headed post regarding MS in the FUTURE. They are leading the way in the enterprise in many ways, such as HTML5 adoption and integration into their products, far better than Apple even. because businesses listen to MS, and because of their hooks into the enterprise, will always be relevant and not to be taken lightly. With or without Ball-mer.
Another thing to consider is this: as we all well know, business adoption is extremely slow, methodical, and conservative when moving towards new technologies. Witness how hard it (still) is for MS to move people away from WinXP. It's glacial. Individuals, as in consumers, can take a risk with new devices and software, where as an enterprise must be very careful. To that end, it is very possible and likely even, that MS is just taking their time... and maybe even... trying to get it right.
As far as I'm concerned, there is no better system TODAY, than Apple's Mac OSX and iOS devices, for consumers and small businesses. What the landscape will look like in 2015 is anyone's GUESS.
If Apple stops innovating or SJ leaves earlier than expected (or ____?)... or Google-Android never gets out of Beta, is hit with massive infections, or is forced into licensing due to losing the IP battle with Oracle... or RIM bellies-up as I've predicted for a while now.. all those potential scenarios leave the door open to the enterprise behemoth that MS STILL is and will be for some time to come.
IF nothing tragic happens, and MS's internal clock is running at the same speed as their big clients, just maybe, 2015 will be THEIR lucky year.
PS. from 1996 - 2006 I ran WinNT servers here and at assorted clients. At the time, there was nothing even close from Apple or anyone else, compared to the ease-of-use and up-time/maintenance of a well built machine. Who knows. Maybe they have it in them again to get me to use and recommend them.
4 years ago there was no iPhone (well, only very just!)
4 years ago there was no iPad
4 years ago there was no iOS
Yet these analysts feel that they will simply take the situation of the mobile market in 2011 and extend it forward until 2015 and come up with a reasonable take on what it will be like.
Imagine the prediction they would have come up with for 2010 if they had done the same thing in 2006 when none of the above devices had been announced.
This is why the rest of the industry is so confused because they think the future will be just like the past. Apple's philosophy is based around making the future different from the past.
Of course this is a general failing of seeing the future as just a projection of the past and is not limited to the tech industry alone.
It's 4 years until 2015.
4 years ago there was no iPhone (well, only very just!)
4 years ago there was no iPad
4 years ago there was no iOS
Yet these analysts feel that they will simply take the situation of the mobile market in 2011 and extend it forward until 2015 and come up with a reasonable take on what it will be like.
Imagine the prediction they would have come up with for 2010 if they had done the same thing in 2006 when none of the above devices had been announced.
This is why the rest of the industry is so confused because they think the future will be just like the past. Apple's philosophy is based around making the future different from the past.
Of course this is a general failing of seeing the future as just a projection of the past and is not limited to the tech industry alone.
They are not even good extrapolators = RIM is in free fall but will fall a mere 1% in the next 4. iOS grew expoentially to 15% from 0% in 4 years, stalled ( in market share) due to Android growth in the US and China in the last half year, and price issues, and are taking steps to rectify those problems. Nokia is falling in market share but in 2015 WP7 will be the same percent as Symbian was predicted to be.
Here's just one example: Apple grew by 100% last year in unit shipments of iPhones, Asymco assumes that every iPhone product will sell twice as many as the last one, IDC is predicting a 40% growth in the mobile market this year, meaning that Apple - despite moving aggressively into China, and onto multi-carrier in the US ( something which has doubled their market share) will grow a mere 40% this year ( either that or it falls back between 2011 and 2015). IDC are also predicting that iOS will grow at a compound average of 18% per year over the next 4 - as opposed to 100% for the last year - compared to 61.7% for WP7 based on figures pulled out of their asses.
The market is set to expand but given Androids current success it seems although Apple will sell more iPhones they will loose market share. Maybe with a cheaper version they will gain some back, but it's hard to see how they could differentiate the lower priced version enough to avoid canobolising the current iPhone. The iPhone also has a huge profit margin so a cheaper version also wouldn't be as profitable.
If WP7 succeeds then 20% seems realistic, if it doesn't they will be at 0%. But that doesn't mean Apple will pick up the 20%, most of it would likely go to Android.
It's 4 years until 2015.
4 years ago there was no iPhone (well, only very just!)
4 years ago there was no iPad
4 years ago there was no iOS
Yet these analysts feel that they will simply take the situation of the mobile market in 2011 and extend it forward until 2015 and come up with a reasonable take on what it will be like.
Imagine the prediction they would have come up with for 2010 if they had done the same thing in 2006 when none of the above devices had been announced.
This is why the rest of the industry is so confused because they think the future will be just like the past. Apple's philosophy is based around making the future different from the past.
Of course this is a general failing of seeing the future as just a projection of the past and is not limited to the tech industry alone.
That's all very true. Everyone was buying Moto Razr 4 years ago and had been for a while. iOS/Android/WP7 and all other smartphones could be back at 0%. People apparently only buy Apps for the first 3 months of owning a smartphone, so maybe we'll all be board of them in 2015.
Doesn't seem that obsured. There not saying WP7 will be No 1 or even half as popular as android.
The market is set to expand but given Androids current success it seems although Apple will sell more iPhones they will loose market share. Maybe with a cheaper version they will gain some back, but it's hard to see how they could differentiate the lower priced version enough to avoid canobolising the current iPhone. The iPhone also has a huge profit margin so a cheaper version also wouldn't be as profitable.
If WP7 succeeds then 20% seems realistic, if it doesn't they will be at 0%. But that doesn't mean Apple will pick up the 20%, most of it would likely go to Android.
Right. I am going to get a bit remedial. I actually think I know more about this both as a dev and an investor than IDC.
1) Apple sells a very low priced iPad, and a low priced iPod touch ( essentially the iPhone without the phone). Neither cannabilise the higher end market. They do that to protect their lower end. They will do that in the iPhone as well. This will obviously increase growth.
2) Apple has grown from 0-15% worldwide in 4 years, or so. In fact in less time than that in most markets, in fact. They are not on all carriers. Where they are - as in Europe - they are the biggest smartphone vendors. That this has not made headlines in the US speaks of US insularity. ( source: http://www.pocket-lint.com/news/3834...ndroid-europel)
3) Apple had 28% of the market in the US on one carrier. It has now moved to two. Eventually to all. Whenever it does that it sees it's market share double. Do IDC take any of that into account?
4) WP7 is nowhere in any market.
5) Apples "stagnation" - although it grew by 161% in Europe to last June, for instance - is relative to the market as a whole which doubled in the last year large;y driven by Android and iOS. IDC are now saying that Apple will merely grow by 18% per year, compounded. This 18% is as plucked out of their ass as the WP7 figures.
6) Meanwhile RIM - which is in market share decline - will stay at 16%. No reason given. In this case they are not even extrapolating.
7) IDC has given to thought as to where Apple are losing to Android ( basically China , and the US - well that is stagnation) and to why this is going to change soon. Apple are moving aggressively into China and a recent report shows that the iPhone is the most desired phone there. (http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/03/...ains-in-china/)
I could go on. Suffice to say I am better at this than IDC, and I am just a guy on t'internet. Rubbish report.