I don't know about the Droid because I left Verizon to join my fiancee on Sprint... I ended up choosing an Android-based phone. I like it but it is no iPhone (based on my experience with the iPod touch) but it is a good OS. Unfortunately, it's still running version 1.5 of Android and the topics of discussion around the Android forums is if/when this newly released phone will get OS 2.0... and it had better get it.
I think that Android will definitely surpass WinMo but Android still feels like a "geek" device but that's okay, I am enjoying doing lots of home screen customizations. But having to replace many of the built-in apps with better apps from the Market is disappointing.
But after a few hours of downloading some apps, I am very satisfied with the device. Just keeping my hopes up that version 2.0 will come to my phone....
The iPhone and Android will be close enough in marketshare that they'll swap positions multiple times as time moves on.
I don't think the iPhone and Android will be that close in a year's time, perhaps in 2, and Blackberry will probably still be ahead of Android. So, I would put it like this in a year, assuming Windows Mobile shows up at all:
1. Symbian OS
2. iPhone OS
3. BlackBerry OS
4. Android OS
[big gap]
5. WebOS
6. WinMo OS
7. Other
In another year, it may look more like what you are predicting except that both WebOS and WinMo will be missing from the stats, or just lumped into Other.
This extrapolation of past numbers for Symbian into future dominance cracks me up.
Probably in about 2-3 years it won't be, but in the immediate future it is likely to remain so. It's presently leading by more than double the marketshare and that lead isn't going to disappear overnight.
Analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray is even more bullish, predicting sales of 9.2 million iPhones in the December quarter, and 36 million in 2010.
Really, how many Linux geeks are there? The Droid actually has a lot going for it, but Teh Sexy isn't one of them.
I'll eat my hat if Munster turns out to have even been close. As others have pointed out, this guy makes a living on making wild predictions that turn out to be wildly off the mark. Why does he continue to get this kind of press?
Really, how many Linux geeks are there? The Droid actually has a lot going for it, but Teh Sexy isn't one of them.
I'll eat my hat if Munster turns out to have even been close. As others have pointed out, this guy makes a living on making wild predictions that turn out to be wildly off the mark. Why does he continue to get this kind of press?
Uhm, the prediction you quoted was about iPhones, not Droids.
Exactly how much more publicity does AI intend to give this product? Just wondering. As a reader, I'm really, exceptionally, extremely, NOT interested in information about this product unless it relates directly to the iPhone.
That's not to say I'm actually uninterested in said information, but this is not what I come here for.
A lot of us are interested, as this will have impact on Apple's own product sales and upgrades.
They can't just talk about Apple products without having some base upon which to compare them to.
You can tell the interest by the number of posts on a topic. More than 50 shows interest. More than 100 shows a lot of interest, and much more than that shows overwhelming interest.
100,000 compared to 1,000,000 units sold on the first weekend. How is this going to kill the iPhone?
It's not just the impact of one phone. It's the impact of the cumulative effect of all the Android phones sold.
This phone seems to be the best Android phone out there, so it shows what a good phone based on the new ver 2.0 of the OS can do.
If Moto sells 4 million Droids in a year, and there are another 20 Android phones out there, with an average number of one million sold, that's 24 million Android phones sold in a year. A pretty good number, even if none approached the iPhone in total.
DROID is just another handset. They should have taken the AVIS route and advertised it as "we're #2" and "we try harder" going up against the Blackberry and other smartphones rather than taking on the iPhone, because they created expectations with their advertising that the user experience simply cannot match. In battling unrealistically for #1 they are not carving out their own niche - hard to use geek phone that runs our of batteries quickly.
this is a geek phone limited to 256MB of application storage memory with NO HOPE of expansion in site, because android does not allow apps to be stored on the removable memory cards.
any real geek is going to get the 32GB iPhone 3GS and jailbreak it.
It was found long before DROID is out how to make flexible and highly configurable system useable by non-technical crowd.
People create a number of pre-defined configurations for various needs and tastes, others just use those presets.
DROID should just make it easier to load presets...
I predict that various phone makers and even cell carriers will take Android and split off their branch from the Google branch, leading to a number of incompatible Android based systems in a few years. We're beginning to see it already.
This is going to result in what happened to Unix when mini computer, mainframe and workstation makers moved from their propriety OS's to Unix. At first, all that was talked about was software portability.
But what actually happened was that manufacturers began to differentiate their models with specific features. After a while, the various Unix OS's became about as proprietary as the ones they abandoned years before.
The same thing has happened to the various Linux distros. You can't easily run programs running KDE on a GNOME distro and visa versa. Then there are the dozens of other distros. And yes, I know these programs can be compiled to run, but thats not the point, is it? They still need work after that.
I can see companies revving Android to add features that they think will give them an advantage, that others can't, or won't be able to use. GUI differences will pile up so that programs written for one won't work on another etc.
I predict that various phone makers and even cell carriers will take Android and split off their branch from the Google branch, leading to a number of incompatible Android based systems in a few years. We're beginning to see it already.
This is going to result in what happened to Unix when mini computer, mainframe and workstation makers moved from their propriety OS's to Unix. At first, all that was talked about was software portability.
But what actually happened was that manufacturers began to differentiate their models with specific features. After a while, the various Unix OS's became about as proprietary as the ones they abandoned years before.
The same thing has happened to the various Linux distros. You can't easily run programs running KDE on a GNOME distro and visa versa. Then there are the dozens of other distros. And yes, I know these programs can be compiled to run, but thats not the point, is it? They still need work after that.
I can see companies revving Android to add features that they think will give them an advantage, that others can't, or won't be able to use. GUI differences will pile up so that programs written for one won't work on another etc.
It will be a mess.
You may be right, but there's no such a requirement for phones to be strictly compatible. Even desktop computers can live without compatibility. Their OSes conform to certain set of criteria and that's enough.
as a pro photographer, I see this as a moot point... if you want blown out, unusable information in a photo, that has terrible white balance, horrible vignetting, and the same blue-ish look....then yea a crappy camera flash is fOR you teckstud....
otherwise available light is what is best, this is probably the reason apple has not included one yet, in fact I am positive, since apple is all about proper implementation of technology. Hence the crappy dual flash on the droid and other camera phones. Hmm, the photos (which is an insult to photographers, more like snapshots) all look the same which should come as no surprise to anyone who uses a camera.
Desktop OS are stable platforms. There are different platforms to choose from. The equivalent of what Mel is saying would be HP, Dell, and Acer all using a slightly different version of Windows designed for their own computers and are incompatible with each others machines.
The reality is that Windows is a stable platform. Mel is saying that Android will likely not end up with the same type of stability and in the long run fracture the entire platform.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ivan.rnn01
You may be right, but there's no such a requirement for phones to be strictly compatible. Even desktop computers can live without compatibility. Their OSes conform to certain set of criteria and that's enough.
You may be right, but there's no such a requirement for phones to be strictly compatible. Even desktop computers can live without compatibility. Their OSes conform to certain set of criteria and that's enough.
Correct.
But then, will those phones really BE Android phones if they're incompatible?
Just like Linux. There is no such thing as a Linux OS, it's just a kernel.
With Android, it's a real OS, but if it can get differentiated enough, then what we'll see is Android BASED OS's.
In that case, can we really talk about Android vs Apple's iPhone OS? Or about RIM's OS, or Symbian, or Meamo. Or whatever?
There won't be 'AN" Android OS any longer, but a number of different, incompatible ones.
We'll need to talk about Motorola's OS, and HTC's OS, etc.
Exactly how much more publicity does AI intend to give this product? Just wondering. As a reader, I'm really, exceptionally, extremely, NOT interested in information about this product unless it relates directly to the iPhone.
That's not to say I'm actually uninterested in said information, but this is not what I come here for.
Man, I don't know what country or conditions you live in... but in Canada we aren't forced at gun point to read every article on a website. I'm pretty sure it's the same way in the US and, well, pretty much anywhere i can think of.
Sorry to hear you absolutely must read every article on a website.
I think those are decent numbers considering the phone is from a company that hasn't made a decent device in years. The iPhones first incarnation had its problems and Apple improved on it. I'm sure whatever shortcomings the Droid has Motorola will improve them. We as consumers all win, because this will cause ALL phone makers to step up their game.
Comments
I believe it's going to be:
1. Symbian OS
2/3. Android and iPhone OS
4. BlackBerry OS
5. WinMo OS
The iPhone and Android will be close enough in marketshare that they'll swap positions multiple times as time moves on.
This extrapolation of past numbers for Symbian into future dominance cracks me up.
I think that Android will definitely surpass WinMo but Android still feels like a "geek" device but that's okay, I am enjoying doing lots of home screen customizations. But having to replace many of the built-in apps with better apps from the Market is disappointing.
But after a few hours of downloading some apps, I am very satisfied with the device. Just keeping my hopes up that version 2.0 will come to my phone....
I believe it's going to be:
1. Symbian OS
2/3. Android and iPhone OS
4. BlackBerry OS
5. WinMo OS
The iPhone and Android will be close enough in marketshare that they'll swap positions multiple times as time moves on.
I don't think the iPhone and Android will be that close in a year's time, perhaps in 2, and Blackberry will probably still be ahead of Android. So, I would put it like this in a year, assuming Windows Mobile shows up at all:
1. Symbian OS
2. iPhone OS
3. BlackBerry OS
4. Android OS
[big gap]
5. WebOS
6. WinMo OS
7. Other
In another year, it may look more like what you are predicting except that both WebOS and WinMo will be missing from the stats, or just lumped into Other.
here is the post
Droid Not really worth the wait!
The phone is a good Phone. But the 256MB is not that great!. My other verizon phones get better 3G service as well,
only have 2 bars compared to my other one at 5 Bars. Internet very Slow. Maybe it's a bad Phone.
I will monitor it for a week and take it back under 30 days... Not worth the Hype!!!!
Link: http://forums.verizon.com/t5/Android...ait/m-p/113102
But that poster only has a 1-post history.
This extrapolation of past numbers for Symbian into future dominance cracks me up.
Probably in about 2-3 years it won't be, but in the immediate future it is likely to remain so. It's presently leading by more than double the marketshare and that lead isn't going to disappear overnight.
EDIT: So, in 3 years, it may look like this:
1/2. Android and iPhone OS
3. BlackBerry OS
4. Symbian OS
5. Other
People create a number of pre-defined configurations for various needs and tastes, others just use those presets.
DROID should just make it easier to load presets...
Analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray is even more bullish, predicting sales of 9.2 million iPhones in the December quarter, and 36 million in 2010.
Really, how many Linux geeks are there? The Droid actually has a lot going for it, but Teh Sexy isn't one of them.
I'll eat my hat if Munster turns out to have even been close. As others have pointed out, this guy makes a living on making wild predictions that turn out to be wildly off the mark. Why does he continue to get this kind of press?
Really, how many Linux geeks are there? The Droid actually has a lot going for it, but Teh Sexy isn't one of them.
I'll eat my hat if Munster turns out to have even been close. As others have pointed out, this guy makes a living on making wild predictions that turn out to be wildly off the mark. Why does he continue to get this kind of press?
Uhm, the prediction you quoted was about iPhones, not Droids.
Strong competition will make it hard for any player to monopolize the market, and will motivate all players to bring in their best. We all win!
Exactly how much more publicity does AI intend to give this product? Just wondering. As a reader, I'm really, exceptionally, extremely, NOT interested in information about this product unless it relates directly to the iPhone.
That's not to say I'm actually uninterested in said information, but this is not what I come here for.
A lot of us are interested, as this will have impact on Apple's own product sales and upgrades.
They can't just talk about Apple products without having some base upon which to compare them to.
You can tell the interest by the number of posts on a topic. More than 50 shows interest. More than 100 shows a lot of interest, and much more than that shows overwhelming interest.
100,000 compared to 1,000,000 units sold on the first weekend. How is this going to kill the iPhone?
It's not just the impact of one phone. It's the impact of the cumulative effect of all the Android phones sold.
This phone seems to be the best Android phone out there, so it shows what a good phone based on the new ver 2.0 of the OS can do.
If Moto sells 4 million Droids in a year, and there are another 20 Android phones out there, with an average number of one million sold, that's 24 million Android phones sold in a year. A pretty good number, even if none approached the iPhone in total.
this is a geek phone limited to 256MB of application storage memory with NO HOPE of expansion in site, because android does not allow apps to be stored on the removable memory cards.
any real geek is going to get the 32GB iPhone 3GS and jailbreak it.
It was found long before DROID is out how to make flexible and highly configurable system useable by non-technical crowd.
People create a number of pre-defined configurations for various needs and tastes, others just use those presets.
DROID should just make it easier to load presets...
I predict that various phone makers and even cell carriers will take Android and split off their branch from the Google branch, leading to a number of incompatible Android based systems in a few years. We're beginning to see it already.
This is going to result in what happened to Unix when mini computer, mainframe and workstation makers moved from their propriety OS's to Unix. At first, all that was talked about was software portability.
But what actually happened was that manufacturers began to differentiate their models with specific features. After a while, the various Unix OS's became about as proprietary as the ones they abandoned years before.
The same thing has happened to the various Linux distros. You can't easily run programs running KDE on a GNOME distro and visa versa. Then there are the dozens of other distros. And yes, I know these programs can be compiled to run, but thats not the point, is it? They still need work after that.
I can see companies revving Android to add features that they think will give them an advantage, that others can't, or won't be able to use. GUI differences will pile up so that programs written for one won't work on another etc.
It will be a mess.
I predict that various phone makers and even cell carriers will take Android and split off their branch from the Google branch, leading to a number of incompatible Android based systems in a few years. We're beginning to see it already.
This is going to result in what happened to Unix when mini computer, mainframe and workstation makers moved from their propriety OS's to Unix. At first, all that was talked about was software portability.
But what actually happened was that manufacturers began to differentiate their models with specific features. After a while, the various Unix OS's became about as proprietary as the ones they abandoned years before.
The same thing has happened to the various Linux distros. You can't easily run programs running KDE on a GNOME distro and visa versa. Then there are the dozens of other distros. And yes, I know these programs can be compiled to run, but thats not the point, is it? They still need work after that.
I can see companies revving Android to add features that they think will give them an advantage, that others can't, or won't be able to use. GUI differences will pile up so that programs written for one won't work on another etc.
It will be a mess.
You may be right, but there's no such a requirement for phones to be strictly compatible. Even desktop computers can live without compatibility. Their OSes conform to certain set of criteria and that's enough.
He is comparing a 2009 June iPhone to a 2009 November Droid.
Which is pretty fair. Moto can go back two and a half years and sell the Droid then and I would be impressed.
Hmmm... upon further reflection, that is a valid point.
Second that- flash camera here we go!
as a pro photographer, I see this as a moot point... if you want blown out, unusable information in a photo, that has terrible white balance, horrible vignetting, and the same blue-ish look....then yea a crappy camera flash is fOR you teckstud....
otherwise available light is what is best, this is probably the reason apple has not included one yet, in fact I am positive, since apple is all about proper implementation of technology. Hence the crappy dual flash on the droid and other camera phones. Hmm, the photos (which is an insult to photographers, more like snapshots) all look the same which should come as no surprise to anyone who uses a camera.
The reality is that Windows is a stable platform. Mel is saying that Android will likely not end up with the same type of stability and in the long run fracture the entire platform.
You may be right, but there's no such a requirement for phones to be strictly compatible. Even desktop computers can live without compatibility. Their OSes conform to certain set of criteria and that's enough.
You may be right, but there's no such a requirement for phones to be strictly compatible. Even desktop computers can live without compatibility. Their OSes conform to certain set of criteria and that's enough.
Correct.
But then, will those phones really BE Android phones if they're incompatible?
Just like Linux. There is no such thing as a Linux OS, it's just a kernel.
With Android, it's a real OS, but if it can get differentiated enough, then what we'll see is Android BASED OS's.
In that case, can we really talk about Android vs Apple's iPhone OS? Or about RIM's OS, or Symbian, or Meamo. Or whatever?
There won't be 'AN" Android OS any longer, but a number of different, incompatible ones.
We'll need to talk about Motorola's OS, and HTC's OS, etc.
Exactly how much more publicity does AI intend to give this product? Just wondering. As a reader, I'm really, exceptionally, extremely, NOT interested in information about this product unless it relates directly to the iPhone.
That's not to say I'm actually uninterested in said information, but this is not what I come here for.
Man, I don't know what country or conditions you live in... but in Canada we aren't forced at gun point to read every article on a website. I'm pretty sure it's the same way in the US and, well, pretty much anywhere i can think of.
Sorry to hear you absolutely must read every article on a website.