Probably in about 2-3 years it won't be, but in the immediate future it is likely to remain so. It's presently leading by more than double the marketshare and that lead isn't going to disappear overnight.
EDIT: So, in 3 years, it may look like this:
1/2. Android and iPhone OS
3. BlackBerry OS
4. Symbian OS
5. Other
Symbian's stats are hugely inflated because they include a lot of relatively primitive 1st generation smart phone models that Nokia sells cheap world-wide. if you don't count those and just count the most recent Symbian models that (sort of) match the capabilities of iPhone and Android, their numbers plummet (and iPhone's market share soars).
many have pointed out that the "smartphone" definition has become too vague, too loose. pretty soon every phone made will be some kind of smartphone. the 2007 iPhone was the first of a new generation of super-smartphones.
Symbian's stats are hugely inflated because they include a lot of relatively primitive 1st generation smart phone models that Nokia sells cheap world-wide. if you don't count those and just count the most recent Symbian models that (sort of) match the capabilities of iPhone and Android, their numbers plummet (and iPhone's market share soars).
many have pointed out that the "smartphone" definition has become too vague, too loose. pretty soon every phone made will be some kind of smartphone. the 2007 iPhone was the first of a new generation of super-smartphones.
Pogue, in a recent review, called a phone a smartphone if it does e-mail.
That gives many phones that aren't really smartphones the name.
That's one of the problems I keep bring up about removable cards. These newer phones don't work any differently than does my now old Treo 700p.
When the card is removed, and another one put back, it has messages about all the stuff that missing, and would I please put the other card back in so that I can use the programs which are STILL listed as being in the machine.
Removable cards are a BAD idea. Why? Because the companies are using them instead of doing it the right way.
Then you forget exactly what's on each card. Once you have more than one extra card, things become ridiculous.
If you then use a program which will allow you to use it even with some of the stuff missing, then you now have TWO cards with stuff from one program, never to unite them. It's a real mess.
but what you're forgetting is that Google has really conceived Android as much more of a "cloud" platform than any other. it's not all working yet, but they'll have you storing everything 'up there' for ready-on-demand access instead of on an SSD in your phone. plus cloud-based apps of course which Google leads. and elaborate cloud services which Google also leads (like Google Voice). that's the unique Google ecosystem. once they get it all together in a year or two it should be quite spectacular.
Google wants to really push consumers to use its cloud services, so likely will always discourage large built in SSD's. just like the iPhone makes you use iTunes and fits tightly with iLife and MobileMe, to help sell more Mac products.
512MB on-board ROM with 256MB available for apps. As stated in this thread, programs can store files on the microSD card, but this is a work-aroudn, not an ideal solution.
Battery life is questionable. Stated talk time when compared to iPhone on 3G is one hour longer, but CDMA-based phones use 2G for talk while GSM-based devices use 3G. Overall, this means that the battery life should be worse. Standby time is rated less than iPhone, we?ll have to see how it compares with audio, video (which it can?t do without a 3rd-party app) and internet.
The jailbreaking multitasking aren?t very good at power management. The Droid should be better, but it?ll still take a toll.
The Droid pixels are 180% that of the iPhone, but he software is worse so the images are worse. There are 3rd-party apps for uploading and editing, but none are nearly as good as the iPhone. In fact, they are all down right crappy at this point. Compare Facebook apps and you get and idea.
You?ll see Android on all carriers, including AT&T, but Droid is licensed to Verizon by LucasFilms. Not sure if they?ll keep the name with Motorola or just use it for all or some of their Android-based devices.
but what you're forgetting is that Google has really conceived Android as much more of a "cloud" platform than any other. it's not all working yet, but they'll have you storing everything 'up there' for ready-on-demand access instead of on an SSD in your phone. plus cloud-based apps of course which Google leads. and elaborate cloud services which Google also leads (like Google Voice). that's the unique Google ecosystem. once they get it all together in a year or two it should be quite spectacular.
Google wants to really push consumers to use its cloud services, so likely will always discourage large built in SSD's. just like the iPhone makes you use iTunes and fits tightly with iLife and MobileMe, to help sell more Mac products.
I don't really understand this. I don't want my data anywhere but with me. I don't want load times, buffering, etc. I want my data and I want it now and I want it destroyable. I don't want to leave things to chance in somebody Else's hands. Can you say trust issues.
but what you're forgetting is that Google has really conceived Android as much more of a "cloud" platform than any other. it's not all working yet, but they'll have you storing everything 'up there' for ready-on-demand access instead of on an SSD in your phone. plus cloud-based apps of course which Google leads. and elaborate cloud services which Google also leads (like Google Voice). that's the unique Google ecosystem. once they get it all together in a year or two it should be quite spectacular.
Google wants to really push consumers to use its cloud services, so likely will always discourage large built in SSD's. just like the iPhone makes you use iTunes and fits tightly with iLife and MobileMe, to help sell more Mac products.
I understand that. But Google has given up control on hardware specs, and even software specs. There's no way they can prevent manufacturers from adding whatever they want, and eliminating whatever they want.
Google has really blown this as far as I'm concerned BECAUSE of their open platform. They had allowed too much local control of what will come out. There are almost no standards at all.
I don't see the point of comparing the first weekend sales of a new, 1st generation phone with an established, 3rd generation phone (with worldwide release).
Besides, these numbers are estimates that are based on unofficial inventories at Verizon stores. That doesn't include the sales at other retailers (i.e. Best Buy) and online, where the phone sold for $100 less because there was no mail-in rebate hassle.
Also, the Droid isn't trying to be an iPhone killer. It was designed from the ground-up to be a cloud-powered platform, and will only get better with time. The "connected" GPS with constantly updated data is one example of an innovative, killer app. With time, other innovations will come out of the platform.
The Android market is no where near as good as the App Store, but I think it will improve over time as more people start using the Android platform. The apps available now are fair but functional, and are bound to improve over time. And it's nice not to have to jailbreak the OS in order to add functionality that the manufacturer has decided you don't need.
100,000 compared to 1,000,000 units sold on the first weekend. How is this going to kill the iPhone?
Droid won't kill the iPhone, Android will. By the end of 2010 there will be somewhere between 50 and 150 Android phones to choose from.
The Android market will have leveled the ap playing field to a degree, maybe not in raw numbers but by covering the 95% of aps worth down loading.
The iPhone's survival is largely out of Apples hands. If Verizon won't pick up the iPhone and if Google does not port Navigator and their other aps to the iPhone then the advantage will turn to Android within a year. When Google's navigator and voice search get out of the beta stage any smart phone that does not have them will be is a world of hurt.
For the record I own neither an iPhone or an Android phone and I'm no particular fan of Google. But I can see that the work Google is doing in the Android universe has the potential to squash Symbian, MS mobile and yes iPhone.
I understand that. But Google has given up control on hardware specs, and even software specs. There's no way they can prevent manufacturers from adding whatever they want, and eliminating whatever they want.
Google has really blown this as far as I'm concerned BECAUSE of their open platform. They had allowed too much local control of what will come out. There are almost no standards at all.
well fragmentation of the OS may well prove to be Android's achilles heel. telcos and OEM's will try to monetize their branded Android phones and services, and so make them partially incompatible with others' to lock you in to their products.
but Google will be able to totally control their own cloud ecosystem, so as long as Android users stick with just that they can assure full interoperability across all Android devices - however as far as the Google cloud can go. i'm sure that is their determination.
i agree that many consumers will never trust putting their data in the cloud. even if you can keep an auto synched local back-up you feel dependent on Google or whoever. but maybe younger generations that grow up with this will not have that reservation.
i think Apple is smart here. it represents MobileMe as an extension of the OS' "sharing" and synching features of your locally stored data, not as a replacement for it.
Yes that is a technical limit in the software. The reason given is for security/piracy concerns given that Android phones have a removable micro SD card. The Android consortium is promising an update in the near future that will remove this limitation. Android is positioning itself to be adopted by other devices besides smart phones. These devices would likely have hard drives and other storage so the memory issue is one they have to resolve soon.
I don't see the point of comparing the first weekend sales of a new, 1st generation phone with an established, 3rd generation phone (with worldwide release).
Besides, these numbers are estimates that are based on unofficial inventories at Verizon stores. That doesn't include the sales at other retailers (i.e. Best Buy) and online, where the phone sold for $100 less because there was no mail-in rebate hassle.
Also, the Droid isn't trying to be an iPhone killer. It was designed from the ground-up to be a cloud-powered platform, and will only get better with time. The "connected" GPS with constantly updated data is one example of an innovative, killer app. With time, other innovations will come out of the platform.
The Android market is no where near as good as the App Store, but I think it will improve over time as more people start using the Android platform. The apps available now are fair but functional, and are bound to improve over time. And it's nice not to have to jailbreak the OS in order to add functionality that the manufacturer has decided you don't need.
Supposedly, these are total estimates based on activations.
Droid won't kill the iPhone, Android will. By the end of 2010 there will be somewhere between 50 and 150 Android phones to choose from.
The Android market will have leveled the ap playing field to a degree, maybe not in raw numbers but by covering the 95% of aps worth down loading.
The iPhone's survival is largely out of Apples hands. If Verizon won't pick up the iPhone and if Google does not port Navigator and their other aps to the iPhone then the advantage will turn to Android within a year. When Google's navigator and voice search get out of the beta stage any smart phone that does not have them will be is a world of hurt.
For the record I own neither an iPhone or an Android phone and I'm no particular fan of Google. But I can see that the work Google is doing in the Android universe has the potential to squash Symbian, MS mobile and yes iPhone.
The Droid is just a first salvo.
There are that many phones with Win Mobile on it as well. Numbers of phones with Android will mean that they should have good numbers overall, but some of those phones will be crap, some will be ok, and a few will be very good.
Most people won't be buying these phones because they have Android. I'm willing to be that the public still hasn't heard of Android.
They'll be buying them for the same reasons they've been buying them. And of the phones don't measure up, then they won't sell.
We'll see how many people like the idea of "cloud" as done by Google.
We'll see what happens the first time there is a major outage, and people all over lose their stuff, passwords etc.
well fragmentation of the OS may well prove to be Android's achilles heel. telcos and OEM's will try to monetize their branded Android phones and services, and so make them partially incompatible with others' to lock you in to their products.
but Google will be able to totally control their own cloud ecosystem, so as long as Android users stick with just that they can assure full interoperability across all Android devices - however as far as the Google cloud can go. i'm sure that is their determination.
i agree that many consumers will never trust putting their data in the cloud. even if you can keep an auto synched local back-up you feel dependent on Google or whoever. but maybe younger generations that grow up with this will not have that reservation.
i think Apple is smart here. it represents MobileMe as an extension of the OS' "sharing" and synching features of your locally stored data, not as a replacement for it.
As I've just posted, when Google's servers go down, and they have a "Microsoft Moment", as with Danger, people will start to rethink the wiseness of trusting that model.
At some point in the future, it might be a great idea, but not yet. It's too vulnerable to server hiccups, software upgrades (what happened to MS), hackers, etc.
I'm not even so sure that the public has any idea of what the phones require.
There are quite a few Android phones already in the market and they have been for some time now.
The Droid is a third or fourth Salvo, the G1 was the first salvo, then there's the Magic, the Hero, donuts and cupcakes and now eclairs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nailing Malarkey
For the record I own neither an iPhone or an Android phone and I'm no particular fan of Google. But I can see that the work Google is doing in the Android universe has the potential to squash Symbian, MS mobile and yes iPhone.
HOW BORING. Don't read the article, just make stuff up!
Good point, Dan Rather... I guess my point is that the numbers in the article are essentially made up anyway... I'd like to see some hard numbers from Verizon before everyone calls it a failure...
Comments
Probably in about 2-3 years it won't be, but in the immediate future it is likely to remain so. It's presently leading by more than double the marketshare and that lead isn't going to disappear overnight.
EDIT: So, in 3 years, it may look like this:
1/2. Android and iPhone OS
3. BlackBerry OS
4. Symbian OS
5. Other
Symbian's stats are hugely inflated because they include a lot of relatively primitive 1st generation smart phone models that Nokia sells cheap world-wide. if you don't count those and just count the most recent Symbian models that (sort of) match the capabilities of iPhone and Android, their numbers plummet (and iPhone's market share soars).
many have pointed out that the "smartphone" definition has become too vague, too loose. pretty soon every phone made will be some kind of smartphone. the 2007 iPhone was the first of a new generation of super-smartphones.
Symbian's stats are hugely inflated because they include a lot of relatively primitive 1st generation smart phone models that Nokia sells cheap world-wide. if you don't count those and just count the most recent Symbian models that (sort of) match the capabilities of iPhone and Android, their numbers plummet (and iPhone's market share soars).
many have pointed out that the "smartphone" definition has become too vague, too loose. pretty soon every phone made will be some kind of smartphone. the 2007 iPhone was the first of a new generation of super-smartphones.
Pogue, in a recent review, called a phone a smartphone if it does e-mail.
That gives many phones that aren't really smartphones the name.
That's one of the problems I keep bring up about removable cards. These newer phones don't work any differently than does my now old Treo 700p.
When the card is removed, and another one put back, it has messages about all the stuff that missing, and would I please put the other card back in so that I can use the programs which are STILL listed as being in the machine.
Removable cards are a BAD idea. Why? Because the companies are using them instead of doing it the right way.
Then you forget exactly what's on each card. Once you have more than one extra card, things become ridiculous.
If you then use a program which will allow you to use it even with some of the stuff missing, then you now have TWO cards with stuff from one program, never to unite them. It's a real mess.
but what you're forgetting is that Google has really conceived Android as much more of a "cloud" platform than any other. it's not all working yet, but they'll have you storing everything 'up there' for ready-on-demand access instead of on an SSD in your phone. plus cloud-based apps of course which Google leads. and elaborate cloud services which Google also leads (like Google Voice). that's the unique Google ecosystem. once they get it all together in a year or two it should be quite spectacular.
Google wants to really push consumers to use its cloud services, so likely will always discourage large built in SSD's. just like the iPhone makes you use iTunes and fits tightly with iLife and MobileMe, to help sell more Mac products.
512MB on-board ROM with 256MB available for apps. As stated in this thread, programs can store files on the microSD card, but this is a work-aroudn, not an ideal solution.
Battery life is questionable. Stated talk time when compared to iPhone on 3G is one hour longer, but CDMA-based phones use 2G for talk while GSM-based devices use 3G. Overall, this means that the battery life should be worse. Standby time is rated less than iPhone, we?ll have to see how it compares with audio, video (which it can?t do without a 3rd-party app) and internet.
The jailbreaking multitasking aren?t very good at power management. The Droid should be better, but it?ll still take a toll.
The Droid pixels are 180% that of the iPhone, but he software is worse so the images are worse. There are 3rd-party apps for uploading and editing, but none are nearly as good as the iPhone. In fact, they are all down right crappy at this point. Compare Facebook apps and you get and idea.
You?ll see Android on all carriers, including AT&T, but Droid is licensed to Verizon by LucasFilms. Not sure if they?ll keep the name with Motorola or just use it for all or some of their Android-based devices.
Thanks
but what you're forgetting is that Google has really conceived Android as much more of a "cloud" platform than any other. it's not all working yet, but they'll have you storing everything 'up there' for ready-on-demand access instead of on an SSD in your phone. plus cloud-based apps of course which Google leads. and elaborate cloud services which Google also leads (like Google Voice). that's the unique Google ecosystem. once they get it all together in a year or two it should be quite spectacular.
Google wants to really push consumers to use its cloud services, so likely will always discourage large built in SSD's. just like the iPhone makes you use iTunes and fits tightly with iLife and MobileMe, to help sell more Mac products.
I don't really understand this. I don't want my data anywhere but with me. I don't want load times, buffering, etc. I want my data and I want it now and I want it destroyable. I don't want to leave things to chance in somebody Else's hands. Can you say trust issues.
but what you're forgetting is that Google has really conceived Android as much more of a "cloud" platform than any other. it's not all working yet, but they'll have you storing everything 'up there' for ready-on-demand access instead of on an SSD in your phone. plus cloud-based apps of course which Google leads. and elaborate cloud services which Google also leads (like Google Voice). that's the unique Google ecosystem. once they get it all together in a year or two it should be quite spectacular.
Google wants to really push consumers to use its cloud services, so likely will always discourage large built in SSD's. just like the iPhone makes you use iTunes and fits tightly with iLife and MobileMe, to help sell more Mac products.
I understand that. But Google has given up control on hardware specs, and even software specs. There's no way they can prevent manufacturers from adding whatever they want, and eliminating whatever they want.
Google has really blown this as far as I'm concerned BECAUSE of their open platform. They had allowed too much local control of what will come out. There are almost no standards at all.
A quick search of the Android Marketplace I did yesterday on an HTC Magic revealed plenty of fart applications.
I'd download some to see if they meet the same high standard set by the iPhone but a lot of them cost money.
Second that- flash camera here we go!
Besides, these numbers are estimates that are based on unofficial inventories at Verizon stores. That doesn't include the sales at other retailers (i.e. Best Buy) and online, where the phone sold for $100 less because there was no mail-in rebate hassle.
Also, the Droid isn't trying to be an iPhone killer. It was designed from the ground-up to be a cloud-powered platform, and will only get better with time. The "connected" GPS with constantly updated data is one example of an innovative, killer app. With time, other innovations will come out of the platform.
The Android market is no where near as good as the App Store, but I think it will improve over time as more people start using the Android platform. The apps available now are fair but functional, and are bound to improve over time. And it's nice not to have to jailbreak the OS in order to add functionality that the manufacturer has decided you don't need.
100,000 compared to 1,000,000 units sold on the first weekend. How is this going to kill the iPhone?
Droid won't kill the iPhone, Android will. By the end of 2010 there will be somewhere between 50 and 150 Android phones to choose from.
The Android market will have leveled the ap playing field to a degree, maybe not in raw numbers but by covering the 95% of aps worth down loading.
The iPhone's survival is largely out of Apples hands. If Verizon won't pick up the iPhone and if Google does not port Navigator and their other aps to the iPhone then the advantage will turn to Android within a year. When Google's navigator and voice search get out of the beta stage any smart phone that does not have them will be is a world of hurt.
For the record I own neither an iPhone or an Android phone and I'm no particular fan of Google. But I can see that the work Google is doing in the Android universe has the potential to squash Symbian, MS mobile and yes iPhone.
The Droid is just a first salvo.
I understand that. But Google has given up control on hardware specs, and even software specs. There's no way they can prevent manufacturers from adding whatever they want, and eliminating whatever they want.
Google has really blown this as far as I'm concerned BECAUSE of their open platform. They had allowed too much local control of what will come out. There are almost no standards at all.
well fragmentation of the OS may well prove to be Android's achilles heel. telcos and OEM's will try to monetize their branded Android phones and services, and so make them partially incompatible with others' to lock you in to their products.
but Google will be able to totally control their own cloud ecosystem, so as long as Android users stick with just that they can assure full interoperability across all Android devices - however as far as the Google cloud can go. i'm sure that is their determination.
i agree that many consumers will never trust putting their data in the cloud. even if you can keep an auto synched local back-up you feel dependent on Google or whoever. but maybe younger generations that grow up with this will not have that reservation.
i think Apple is smart here. it represents MobileMe as an extension of the OS' "sharing" and synching features of your locally stored data, not as a replacement for it.
I don't see the point of comparing the first weekend sales of a new, 1st generation phone with an established, 3rd generation phone (with worldwide release).
Besides, these numbers are estimates that are based on unofficial inventories at Verizon stores. That doesn't include the sales at other retailers (i.e. Best Buy) and online, where the phone sold for $100 less because there was no mail-in rebate hassle.
Also, the Droid isn't trying to be an iPhone killer. It was designed from the ground-up to be a cloud-powered platform, and will only get better with time. The "connected" GPS with constantly updated data is one example of an innovative, killer app. With time, other innovations will come out of the platform.
The Android market is no where near as good as the App Store, but I think it will improve over time as more people start using the Android platform. The apps available now are fair but functional, and are bound to improve over time. And it's nice not to have to jailbreak the OS in order to add functionality that the manufacturer has decided you don't need.
Supposedly, these are total estimates based on activations.
Droid won't kill the iPhone, Android will. By the end of 2010 there will be somewhere between 50 and 150 Android phones to choose from.
The Android market will have leveled the ap playing field to a degree, maybe not in raw numbers but by covering the 95% of aps worth down loading.
The iPhone's survival is largely out of Apples hands. If Verizon won't pick up the iPhone and if Google does not port Navigator and their other aps to the iPhone then the advantage will turn to Android within a year. When Google's navigator and voice search get out of the beta stage any smart phone that does not have them will be is a world of hurt.
For the record I own neither an iPhone or an Android phone and I'm no particular fan of Google. But I can see that the work Google is doing in the Android universe has the potential to squash Symbian, MS mobile and yes iPhone.
The Droid is just a first salvo.
There are that many phones with Win Mobile on it as well. Numbers of phones with Android will mean that they should have good numbers overall, but some of those phones will be crap, some will be ok, and a few will be very good.
Most people won't be buying these phones because they have Android. I'm willing to be that the public still hasn't heard of Android.
They'll be buying them for the same reasons they've been buying them. And of the phones don't measure up, then they won't sell.
We'll see how many people like the idea of "cloud" as done by Google.
We'll see what happens the first time there is a major outage, and people all over lose their stuff, passwords etc.
well fragmentation of the OS may well prove to be Android's achilles heel. telcos and OEM's will try to monetize their branded Android phones and services, and so make them partially incompatible with others' to lock you in to their products.
but Google will be able to totally control their own cloud ecosystem, so as long as Android users stick with just that they can assure full interoperability across all Android devices - however as far as the Google cloud can go. i'm sure that is their determination.
i agree that many consumers will never trust putting their data in the cloud. even if you can keep an auto synched local back-up you feel dependent on Google or whoever. but maybe younger generations that grow up with this will not have that reservation.
i think Apple is smart here. it represents MobileMe as an extension of the OS' "sharing" and synching features of your locally stored data, not as a replacement for it.
As I've just posted, when Google's servers go down, and they have a "Microsoft Moment", as with Danger, people will start to rethink the wiseness of trusting that model.
At some point in the future, it might be a great idea, but not yet. It's too vulnerable to server hiccups, software upgrades (what happened to MS), hackers, etc.
I'm not even so sure that the public has any idea of what the phones require.
Droid won't kill the iPhone, Android will. By the end of 2010 there will be somewhere between 50 and 150 Android phones to choose from.
Dude you scare me a little.
WTH in the world 50 to 150 phones to choose from is a competitive advantage?
More like the platform will implode before actually taking off.
Compare to BB OS or WinMo Symbian, I quite like Android and wouldn't wish such a horrible thing on it.
Supposedly, these are total estimates based on activations.
Per the article, the numbers are based on surveys of stock on hand at Verizon stores.
Per the article....
HOW BORING. Don't read the article, just make stuff up!
The Droid is a third or fourth Salvo, the G1 was the first salvo, then there's the Magic, the Hero, donuts and cupcakes and now eclairs.
For the record I own neither an iPhone or an Android phone and I'm no particular fan of Google. But I can see that the work Google is doing in the Android universe has the potential to squash Symbian, MS mobile and yes iPhone.
The Droid is just a first salvo.
HOW BORING. Don't read the article, just make stuff up!
Good point, Dan Rather...