Some of the extreme sentiments expressed here are really shameful. And remarkably ignorant, borderline illiterate.
Yes, Greece messed up. Yes, Greece will probably be better off in the long run outside the Eurozone than in it. (Greece should never have been a part of the Euro to begin with). Yes, in the short run, they'll have to put up with a lot of economic pain regardless of whether they stay or leave. But Greece leaving the Euro will be as much of a problem for the stable countries, as it will be for Greece. It will shred the credibility of the European Union. That's the reason that this has dragged on for so long.
Lenders are not blameless. They lent money knowing there's default risk. Bankruptcy is an inherent part of capitalism (as someone once said, 'capitalism without bankruptcy is like religion without sin'), and if you choose to be a lender, that's the risk you take.
However, a country can't declare bankruptcy unlike an individual or a company can. The only solution to this is debt restructuring, as has happened repeatedly in the past, for many countries around the world. For example, Germany could not have become the post-war economic power that it became if its debts had not been written down by creditors, and people (especially the U.S.) gave it a lot of aid under the Marshall Plan. Similarly for Brazil and Mexico in the 1980s, where debt had to be restructured. The list of counties that have done this is quite large, and I could go on with many examples.
Restructuring means any or all of three things: write down the face value, lengthen the maturity, and/or lower the interest rate. This will be combined with fairly harsh austerity measures (e.g., raising taxes, cutting pensions, cutting government spending). It will happen in some form or the other. It's inevitable. Period. But dragging it on the way it has been serves absolutely no purpose other than to create unnecessary uncertainty in the global economy, and impact stock markets around the world.
Let me put it this way: if Greece is kicked out of the Euro, as some of you are rooting for, it will take a toll on the stock and bond markets, i.e. our wealth, here.
The only thing mature adults should be rooting for is a fast resolution of the problem with a quick debt restructuring. Anything else is kabuki.
Great post. Just to add some perspective: Germany in fact did pay for 'reparations', better known as 'Wiedergutmachung', after WWII, which would now amount to somewhere between 250 billion and 300 billion Euros when corrected for inflation and exchange rates.
I'd take universal health care over a couple of moon rocks any day of the week. But hey, you throw away your billions any way you want.
Actually, you probably won't get one without the other, at least at some point. Sometimes, it takes a few decades to balance social progress and science.
An economy that is strong enough and a country that is proud enough to walk on the Moon seems like a place capable of handling universal health care, and a country with universal health care seems like the right place to be able to go to the Moon.
So many here have all the answers to the world's problems. If only you were in charge instead of the people in charge now, surely the whole world would be safe and secure! We sure could have done this a decade or two ago if only we knew it was so easy and could be done from the safety of our bedrooms in our underwear flailing away on a keyboard.
(I'm being generous. I don't wear underwear. I prefer to save the world from economic demise while nude.)
The problem is not just money, is means to pay; currency is basically locked inside the country.
The difference is GREEKS DON'T WANT TO CHANGE. THEY DON'T GIVE A SHIT ABOUT REFORMS.
They already got a debt reduction and huge loan package before.
Why loan more, cut more debt, when there is not one inkling of effort to make your country competitive.
Very instructive reading this thread. While a good plurality of the posters here are far-left egalitarian death cult supporters, when another country is in trouble, they put on their old time conservative hat and talk trash.
I'm sure you degenerate crypto-leftists were cheering just as fervently when Rhodesia was under fire and later when South Africa ran red with the blood of massacred white families.
No mention about how years of leftist governance in Greece and the cooking of the books primarily benefitted one entity, Goldman Sachs.
The fact is, with Russia calling our bluffs, and more bedwetting democratic governance incoming (Hill-dawg, baby) the US could quickly end up in a similarly catastrophic situation....
Or is printing trillions of dollars worth of debt notes indefinitely sustainable?
Greece is in shambles because anti-Greek leftists have been running the country since the 70s, and they and the mainstream media have successfully got the average voter in a propaganda chokehold. They have refused to exploit massively available natural resources, stating that they didn't exist up until creditors demanded they be included as collateral, which means, suddenly they do exist.
I predict a violent return to a traditional society. Elimination of universal suffrage, execution of white collar criminals, confiscation of their assets and a big middle finger to Germany and the other profiteers, who borrowed at .75% and lent at 8-20% and had the audacity to call it a bailout.
And of course, the non Greeks will eat dust because that's how you live free usually; food is for chumps... (sic).
Considering they borrowed the money FRAUDULENTLY by cooking their fracking books to get the loans (and even enter the Euro), I wouldn't too smug about those Greeks ethical and moral standing. I'm tired of total utter garbage being said. BTW, I vote Liberal an entitled dickhead leftist is not part of the equation.
Nobody here has put forward one reason why Euro members (you know real people with god damn real jobs) should foot the massive bill for this; why no spend money on some other worthy cause like Syria or Vaccination programs. Greek seem that money is a birth right or something!
It's always some abstract "obviously evil" (sic) creditor this, creditor that; but in the end it people in Spain, Italy, Germany, France, Belgium, Netherland who pay the bills and yes, they do vote too...
If you cook your books and good a loan. They had 5 years for a ton of reforms, most non even monetary and sat on their tumb up their ass (the same one they did the finger to "evil" Germany with.
I don't find anything 'funny' in any of this but reading history will help. Look I agree with a lot of what you say, however, I think if you check what Germany was going through pre WWII thanks to not being given debt forgiveness nor aid after WWI you'd see the assumption Germany would have prospered even if crippled in debt after WWII is dubious, however industrious the German people are. The very reason for the Marshall Plan and indeed the birth if the EU was to prevent another period when a Germany with no where to turn financially started yet another war. That's not speculation on my part, that is historical fact you can look up.
To start another war you need money; Germany indeed recovered pretty fast even after having fallen in the craphole post WWI due to the reparation being demanded post WWI, despite a world wide depression I may add! Of course, the Rhin industrial heartland hadn't been hit during WWI which helped..
I said 20 years for German full recovery (It took about 8 years with the Marshall Plan) (that means back to pre-war strength by the late 1960s). Twenty years to recover from this kind of devastation is indeed quick. Germany had many advantages, especially post WWII, which made this recovery likely. The post WWII boom economy and geopolitics (once the immediate post WWII deep recession subsided) would have made that recovery even more likely. Greece doesn't the many advantages of Germany and certainly doesn't have the timing of Germany. The European economy is certainly no booming...
The main reason for the Marshall plan was the USSR quickly becoming a treat in 1946-1947, without that pressure I doubt there would have been such an extensive program. The Marshall plan was serving US interests firstly; that it helped Germans was incidental.
BTW, I'm pretty well versed in history ( I read a lot and watch lots of doc) and specifically studied German industry for all of the 1990-1991 period (we had some deep exchange programs with several Science & Tech institutes at that time).
After reading this thread I'm beginning to think the average American does not know the difference between socialism and communism. But with only having the option to vote right or extreme right, that's not so weird, right?
But, back on topic: good for Apple, for being involved in the world, and for anticipating. Not that iCloud is that useful or crucial, but good for them for continuing service in case payments are blocked.
Well, considering I'm an engineer working in nuclear I'd say my opinion would hold a bit more validity than your typical "illumanerty reptiian demon alien shapeshifter" conspiracy nut.
And yet you’re still wrong. Your appeal to authority is meaningless.
Originally Posted by lightknight
I wonder if you're trolling me, blissfully unaware of any point made, or just... drunk, maybe?
Ad-hom right off the bat, nice!
The point about being a polyglot is that I've lived in, exercised jobs in, and generally been exposed to the press and economies of several of these countries you profess to understand the inner workings of.
Which isn’t a point in itself in favor of your argument.
Our societies suffer fromthe choice of a minority nigh insignificant save for their political clout.
So why is discussion of anything other than fixing the actual problem entertained?
In any case, I'm fed up with arguing with you on this. If it so pleases you, consider to have "won the Internet argument" by abandon. You can have yourself a trophy right here: http://www.3dtrophyfactory.com
Just say you don’t know from the get-go and you won’t waste people’s time.
Originally Posted by hagar
After reading this thread I'm beginning to think the average American does not know the difference between socialism and communism.
Hardly matters when both are evil, does it?
But with only having the option to vote right or extreme right, that's not so weird, right?
No, no, no. American politics are a metric of normalcy, and if anything we’re left of center, on the average. The progressive left becoming ever more extreme doesn’t make us far right.
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
Let me put it this way: if Greece is kicked out of the Euro, as some of you are rooting for, it will take a toll on the stock and bond markets, i.e. our wealth, here.
Yeah, and? A currency collapse will actually fix the underlying problems elsewhere. Kicking the can down the road has happened for a century now. We’re tired of it. It can’t continue forever.
The only thing sane adults should be rooting for is the destruction of the system that allowed this to happen.
---> Ad hominem? No. Ad hominem would be if I left only one negative interpretation. I gave a range of possible reasons, one of which being me being possibly wrong, however unlikely it is by now. You might want to study on argumentation. I advise Schopenhauer's Art of being right.
---> Right off the bat? Your definition of right off the bat is weird. You started it by calling people "childish" and "uneducated". That's "ad hominem" and that's "right off the bat".
Which isn’t a point in itself in favor of your argument.
---> It is, but you seem to miss the point. Says stuff about your inability (or unwillingness, if I'm being nice) to try and see things from the people's perspective.
Just say you don’t know from the get-go and you won’t waste people’s time.
---> It is amazing how you assume people don't know. So, let's make things clear. I don't believe I "don't know". Whether or not you believe I'm an idiot, childish, or uneducated, doesn't automatically make it true. As for wasting people's time... if people take time to read our posts, they clearly enjoy it by now.
The only thing sane adults should be rooting for is the destruction of the system that allowed this to happen.
---> This is not true either. Destroying the system might cause more pain and anguish than fixing it slowly, or even than letting it be, for one. On top of it, you're implying that people who don't root for your cause are childish or insane... again. Science and caution are better guides than feelings.
I've never been a great fan of your posts, or Apple][, since both of you tend to be agressive and pretty much on the opposite side of the political scale, even though both of you sometimes bring interesting information to these parts. But seriously, this time? It's ridiculous. You're entrenched in your (wrong) assumption that people who disagree with you are childish, uneducated, or stupid. It's just sad.
Also, I'm pretty curious what "education" allows you to make such strong statements on other people... Are you a PhD from the London School of Economics (and Political Science), or maybe Yale?
This has nothing to do with individual citizens financial problems or credit card debt, they literally are not allowed to send money out of country. The banks are denying all credit cards and other payments. If they were millionaires they couldn't renew their iCloud accounts.
Thank you for a voice of sanity in this discussion. The reason Apple gave people a "free" month of service has nothing to do with sympathy for Greeks or trying to alleviate their economic problems. It's only about the fact that with the capital controls Greeks cannot pay anyone of any kind outside of Greece and cannot use their credit cards outside of Greece. The alternative (which nearly all other companies with automatic payments have done) is to cut off their Greek subscribers and make them fix things when the banks open again.
Please learn to put aside the emotions and personal opinions and see the facts!
It's only about the fact that with the capital controls Greeks cannot pay anyone of any kind outside of Greece and cannot use their credit cards outside of Greece.
Very true, not to mention that those users who'd have lost data would have been angry at Apple, even though this would just have been "business". Keeping people happy is good business.
Small anecdote, when I was a student I had several students from Eastern countries in my building, and they all shared two characteristics. For one, they came from "affluent" families there, who could afford to send their children abroad or had the connections to secure funding. Second, all of them came from families with bank accounts outside of country, "just in case" something like what happened to the Greek last week would happen.
I'm actually astonished that Apple users who can afford iCloud's storage in Greece (which is not that cheap on a Greek salary...) don't have a bank account out of Greece. It shows a sharp divide between users who can afford Apple devices/storage plans and people with financial mobility. But then again, as an expatriate, I tend to see Europe as lacking borders (inside...), which, as Greece reminded us all, isn't quite true.
I'm actually astonished that Apple users who can afford iCloud's storage in Greece (which is not that cheap on a Greek salary...)
Are you serious?
The national minimum wage in Greece is 684 euros a month, 20GB of iCloud storage is 1 euro a month, 200 GB is 4 euros a month, 0.6% percent of that minimum wage.
I suspect a Greek needing even 200GB of iCloud storage has an income well above that minimum wage.
I'm actually astonished that Apple users who can afford iCloud's storage in Greece (which is not that cheap on a Greek salary...) don't have a bank account out of Greece. It shows a sharp divide between users who can afford Apple devices/storage plans and people with financial mobility. But then again, as an expatriate, I tend to see Europe as lacking borders (inside...), which, as Greece reminded us all, isn't quite true.
Many Greeks do have bank accounts outside of Greece, but mainly the rich ones and they don't want anyone to know about them so they're not going to set up an account like iCloud to draw from it. There are many restrictions on Greek citizens sending money out of the country, so basically the ones who sent the money years ago are the ones with the accounts.
I can't believe how quickly this forum turned into a lot of ranting about "those nasty Greeks deserve to rot in hell because they're all bad people, every one of them." The people who write these things obviously don't understand (at least) two important things:
1. There are lots of Greeks who pay their taxes and obey the laws. They're the ones most hurt by this crisis. The rich can hide their income, not pay taxes, and already have plenty to live on.
2. The austerity measures have only made the economic problems worse. Such laws as lowering salaries and pensions in the private sector only reduce the taxable income, spending power, and quality of life. So if Greeks object to more austerity, it's because all it's done is create a lot of hardship, without solving any of the problems. And let's not even talk about such brilliant ideas as raising the taxes on heating oil so the price quadrupled.
The national minimum wage in Greece is 684 euros a month, 20GB of iCloud storage is 1 euro a month, 200 GB is 4 euros a month, 0.6% percent of that minimum wage.
I suspect a Greek needing even 200GB of iCloud storage has an income well above that minimum wage.
I expect I wasn't clear enough.
My point was exactly "I suspect a Greek needing even 200GB of iCloud storage has an income well above that minimum wage." If you have such income, you probably also have the know-how that should push you to have a bank abroad, especially when things start looking bleak. That's why I told the story of my student friends.
Also, a bit of perspective: I'm Western European, I have a normal salary, I own several Macs and iPads and an iPhone, and I have iCloud storage (lowest plan, because I don't use that much). I consider iCloud rather expensive, in that perspective, for the service it renders, but I pay it nonetheless, because I appreciate the service. At 4 euros a month, which is 50-ish a year, I'd be thinking twice before signing in (but hey, maybe it's just my education... don't sign for recurring payments you can avoid). I spend only 3 euros a month on my phone plan, because I hate spending on stuff I don't use. The outcome is that I paid for my Apple Watch using the money saved on my phone plan, and I laugh at people who deem the Watch "too expensive for them" while paying 50 euros a month for phone hours they don't use.
And of course, the non Greeks will eat dust because that's how you live free usually; food is for chumps... (sic).
Considering they borrowed the money FRAUDULENTLY by cooking their fracking books to get the loans (and even enter the Euro), I wouldn't too smug about those Greeks ethical and moral standing. I'm tired of total utter garbage being said. BTW, I vote Liberal an entitled dickhead leftist is not part of the equation.
Nobody here has put forward one reason why Euro members (you know real people with god damn real jobs) should foot the massive bill for this; why no spend money on some other worthy cause like Syria or Vaccination programs. Greek seem that money is a birth right or something!
It's always some abstract "obviously evil" (sic) creditor this, creditor that; but in the end it people in Spain, Italy, Germany, France, Belgium, Netherland who pay the bills and yes, they do vote too...
If you cook your books and good a loan. They had 5 years for a ton of reforms, most non even monetary and sat on their tumb up their ass (the same one they did the finger to "evil" Germany with.
By this logic, you are directly responsible for every fucked up thing your government has ever done.
The fact is, Greece's unsustainable debt was 100% of GDP a while ago.
After these "bailouts" and doing EXACTLY what troika requested TO THE LETTER, conditions to getting the money in the first place, the debt has exploded to 18x% of GDP and what small parts of the economy did produce wealth are now in shambles.
So I force you to jump through hoops to lend you money at an inflated interest rate. You do so, but the hoops I made you jump through have destroyed your ability to pay back the money you borrowed.
This is called predation. The smartest thing Greece can do is tell the eurozone to eat a dick and stard courting Russia, but the current government (and all parties except Golden Dawn, who are far right wing) are complicit in what is going on and on the take.
What I want to know is how Iceland was able to get out of it. And for all of Italy, France, Spain's bluster.... they are not doing much better than Greece was in 2012
Take your smugness out of the equation and read between the lines. There's a story behind the story and all of this is happening by design.
What I want to know is how Iceland was able to get out of it. And for all of Italy, France, Spain's bluster.... they are not doing much better than Greece was in 2012
And that is the core problem, the main reason for everyone posturing "oh, we would NEVAH do things as Greece did".
If I remember right, Tax Evasion is twice Euroland's debt, and the black economy is 30% at least of the standard economy. Germany itself, not to mention The Netherlands, is not as healthy as it would like people to think, and its "local industry" is made of a lot of assemblers of parts made in the East of Europe or China. Under calls for austerity in Greece seems to be the fear that people start looking under your curtain if you were to not yell loud enough at Greece.
As to how Iceland got out... If I got things right, Iceland was growing a dangerous competitor to London's Almighty City, and due to an accidental freezing of all Icelandic assets in Britain, that competitor died. Freezing for terrorism reasons, wasn't it? Then Iceland, being a relatively small population, decided to nationalise banks, and basically go against all measures that have been imposed on Greece, and rely on their others assets to pay their debts. Greece is probably too big to play that game. That's at least how I understood it. Any Icelandic person is welcome to explain if I messed up everything.
It's amazing just how ungrounded in reality money can be. Iceland's economy died in three days, Greece in a week, and the growth of the Gerek debt 18 fold shows how related to industrial or retirement reasons all this really is.
AFTER LONGEST EU SUMMIT IN HISTORY, GREECE SIGNED OFF ON EVERYTHING. IMF involvement. No debt relief. Sale of 50 billion Euros worth of government assets (25% of Greek GDP)! Assets will not be moved to Luxembourg though, the only thing Tspiras won. EU monitoring of Greek government. https://archive.is/bMT6o
Tsipras almost left but the European Commission president locked him in: https://archive.is/ZTijp Money to keep Greek banks afloat released. REST OF BAILOUT FUNDS NEED GREEK ACTION, 10 DEMANDS, JULY 15 DEADLINE.
BRITAIN REJECTS CONTRIBUTING TO BAILOUT TRANSITION LOAN FOR GREEK BANKS. https://archive.is/RLC3G
YANIS: IT'S A NEW TREATY OF VERSAILLES. https://archive.is/DKh99 >In the [1967] coup d’état the choice of weapon used in order to bring down democracy then was the tanks. Well, this time it was the banks.
Greece has mandatory conscription, all men in the country are required to serve nine months, meaning the entire adult male population has basic military training.
To start another war you need money; Germany indeed recovered pretty fast even after having fallen in the craphole post WWI due to the reparation being demanded post WWI, despite a world wide depression I may add! Of course, the Rhin industrial heartland hadn't been hit during WWI which helped..
If I may add, just as with Greece entering the Union, there were political considerations at play.
The Austrian Empire a casualty of WWI, there was a power vacuum in the East, that the capitalist economies on the west saw dangerously getting filled by the young Soviet Union. The British Empire, and colonial France were vying for power still, and America of course was re-starting its massive increase in political and industrial power after the 1921 crisis. None of the big three wanted a communist haven, already huge by size, to be the major player east of the Rhine, and were willing to let fascist ideologies prosper to avoid communism.
Listening to nazi propaganda (while dangerous...) is enlightening about the role of fascism in the nazi agenda. The people (Ein Volk, in Blut...) work to make the Industry prosper, under the guidance of the Party, and the protection of the Army. This role, of course, is similar in the Italian version (Mussolini, after all, was big friend of Jewish industrialists (at first...) Amedeo Grassini, and his daughter, Mussolini's mistress Sarfatty, had a direct input in that respect on policies pro-industry. Of course the Spanish version is also very similar, and well publicised given the involvement of American superstar writer and KGB agent Ernest Hemingway against the Nationalists of Franco. It is to be noted though that America's government non-interventionist policies, while often portrayed as an "active inaction" helping Franco by the left, is generally admitted to be more intrinsic to American sensibilities. However, just as big money's support to the other European dictators, the support of noted billionaires (the ones who made these well known skyscrapers in NYC...) helped Franco win.
We therefore see an interesting picture here: the left, Soviet Union first, pushing against the capitalist-backed fascist dictators. UK and France, while wary of Germany, play it against each other (school books of the era are fascinating, especially the parts about navies and commercial fleets, in the last pages, often in color... tells a lot about what your focus in on, what you put in color). Obviously, depending on which side is in power in these countries, the attitude towards Germany is different. Aristide Briand for example pushed for clemency, while Poincaré was a hardliner and had the Ruhr occupied until he relented and let American-led plans Dawes and Young be enabled. In the same era, France, still one of the big three, has to contend with a military strategy of "avoiding unnecessary deaths while protecting the territory" that comes from having witnessed so much suffering (millions of invalids and widows after WW1, some 10 to 15 years ago only, at that point).... but still is the main protector of small Eastern non-soviet countries, such as Poland. Letting Germany rebuild by helping them out on the financial side seems like a good idea, to be able to focus on "the real enemy", Communist Russia, when a lot of your soldiers are busy protecting Poland, right?
(Except then , Germany and Russia share Czechoslovakia, Germany invades the Poland you've been so busy protecting from Communism, shit hits the fan, and blood runs deep...)
Another point about Briand: in that era, Communism tends to refer to itself as l'Internationale. The left sees the fate of German workers as directly linked to the fate of UK or France's workers, and are willing to help Germany out for that reason. Also, they're very aware that the harder the conditions in a country, the easier it is for far-right parties to progress, and also willing to help Germany in order to try to reduce the pull of the Nazis (or their previous incarnations from the various Freikorps...) It is not a coincidence that Nazi means "national socialism", as it was designed to pull people from "socialism", e.g. leftist movements, towards "nationalism", in the most racial sense it probably has ever had.
So, yes, Germany recovered fast, yes, the fact that the Rhine powerhouse was mostly intact helped them a lot, especially since their three competitors were broken France, faraway America, and island-UK, but the political push to help them out, whether from the right afraid of the Soviets, or from the left afraid of letting the far-right fester, definitely helped out enormously.
Imagine if voters in Greece were to vote in a pro-austerity, pro-industry, anti-socialist, hard liberal government? Wouldn't, whatever their actual decisions, that government get much easier access to loans and money than the current left one, or its socialist predecessors? Politics are much, much more relevant to this game than real financial and industry considerations, I'm afraid.
Imagine if voters in Greece were to vote in a pro-austerity, pro-industry, anti-socialist, hard liberal government? Wouldn't, whatever their actual decisions, that government get much easier access to loans and money than the current left one, or its socialist predecessors? Politics are much, much more relevant to this game than real financial and industry considerations, I'm afraid.
They did! In 2013. That's the government that practically welcomed new austerity measures every couple of months and led the people to be completely fed up with austerity. One could indeed say that that government had much easier access to loans and money, but at the cost of driving down salaries, pensions, selling off any profitable government-owned entities (the few that there were), and basically driving the majority of the population to below the poverty level.
This is why people were ready to believe even someone like Mr. Tsipras who said he would remove all the austerity measures. People were so desperate they even believed a politician. And they even believed him when he said that the referendum was about democracy and not about passing the responsibility for bad decisions to the people. Oh well, what's life without a dream . . . ?
Comments
Some of the extreme sentiments expressed here are really shameful. And remarkably ignorant, borderline illiterate.
Yes, Greece messed up. Yes, Greece will probably be better off in the long run outside the Eurozone than in it. (Greece should never have been a part of the Euro to begin with). Yes, in the short run, they'll have to put up with a lot of economic pain regardless of whether they stay or leave. But Greece leaving the Euro will be as much of a problem for the stable countries, as it will be for Greece. It will shred the credibility of the European Union. That's the reason that this has dragged on for so long.
Lenders are not blameless. They lent money knowing there's default risk. Bankruptcy is an inherent part of capitalism (as someone once said, 'capitalism without bankruptcy is like religion without sin'), and if you choose to be a lender, that's the risk you take.
However, a country can't declare bankruptcy unlike an individual or a company can. The only solution to this is debt restructuring, as has happened repeatedly in the past, for many countries around the world. For example, Germany could not have become the post-war economic power that it became if its debts had not been written down by creditors, and people (especially the U.S.) gave it a lot of aid under the Marshall Plan. Similarly for Brazil and Mexico in the 1980s, where debt had to be restructured. The list of counties that have done this is quite large, and I could go on with many examples.
Restructuring means any or all of three things: write down the face value, lengthen the maturity, and/or lower the interest rate. This will be combined with fairly harsh austerity measures (e.g., raising taxes, cutting pensions, cutting government spending). It will happen in some form or the other. It's inevitable. Period. But dragging it on the way it has been serves absolutely no purpose other than to create unnecessary uncertainty in the global economy, and impact stock markets around the world.
Let me put it this way: if Greece is kicked out of the Euro, as some of you are rooting for, it will take a toll on the stock and bond markets, i.e. our wealth, here.
The only thing mature adults should be rooting for is a fast resolution of the problem with a quick debt restructuring. Anything else is kabuki.
Great post. Just to add some perspective: Germany in fact did pay for 'reparations', better known as 'Wiedergutmachung', after WWII, which would now amount to somewhere between 250 billion and 300 billion Euros when corrected for inflation and exchange rates.
I'd take universal health care over a couple of moon rocks any day of the week. But hey, you throw away your billions any way you want.
Actually, you probably won't get one without the other, at least at some point. Sometimes, it takes a few decades to balance social progress and science.
An economy that is strong enough and a country that is proud enough to walk on the Moon seems like a place capable of handling universal health care, and a country with universal health care seems like the right place to be able to go to the Moon.
(I'm being generous. I don't wear underwear. I prefer to save the world from economic demise while nude.)
The problem is not just money, is means to pay; currency is basically locked inside the country.
The difference is GREEKS DON'T WANT TO CHANGE. THEY DON'T GIVE A SHIT ABOUT REFORMS.
They already got a debt reduction and huge loan package before.
Why loan more, cut more debt, when there is not one inkling of effort to make your country competitive.
Very instructive reading this thread. While a good plurality of the posters here are far-left egalitarian death cult supporters, when another country is in trouble, they put on their old time conservative hat and talk trash.
I'm sure you degenerate crypto-leftists were cheering just as fervently when Rhodesia was under fire and later when South Africa ran red with the blood of massacred white families.
No mention about how years of leftist governance in Greece and the cooking of the books primarily benefitted one entity, Goldman Sachs.
The fact is, with Russia calling our bluffs, and more bedwetting democratic governance incoming (Hill-dawg, baby) the US could quickly end up in a similarly catastrophic situation....
Or is printing trillions of dollars worth of debt notes indefinitely sustainable?
Greece is in shambles because anti-Greek leftists have been running the country since the 70s, and they and the mainstream media have successfully got the average voter in a propaganda chokehold. They have refused to exploit massively available natural resources, stating that they didn't exist up until creditors demanded they be included as collateral, which means, suddenly they do exist.
I predict a violent return to a traditional society. Elimination of universal suffrage, execution of white collar criminals, confiscation of their assets and a big middle finger to Germany and the other profiteers, who borrowed at .75% and lent at 8-20% and had the audacity to call it a bailout.
And of course, the non Greeks will eat dust because that's how you live free usually; food is for chumps... (sic).
Considering they borrowed the money FRAUDULENTLY by cooking their fracking books to get the loans (and even enter the Euro), I wouldn't too smug about those Greeks ethical and moral standing. I'm tired of total utter garbage being said. BTW, I vote Liberal an entitled dickhead leftist is not part of the equation.
Nobody here has put forward one reason why Euro members (you know real people with god damn real jobs) should foot the massive bill for this; why no spend money on some other worthy cause like Syria or Vaccination programs. Greek seem that money is a birth right or something!
It's always some abstract "obviously evil" (sic) creditor this, creditor that; but in the end it people in Spain, Italy, Germany, France, Belgium, Netherland who pay the bills and yes, they do vote too...
If you cook your books and good a loan. They had 5 years for a ton of reforms, most non even monetary and sat on their tumb up their ass (the same one they did the finger to "evil" Germany with.
I don't find anything 'funny' in any of this but reading history will help. Look I agree with a lot of what you say, however, I think if you check what Germany was going through pre WWII thanks to not being given debt forgiveness nor aid after WWI you'd see the assumption Germany would have prospered even if crippled in debt after WWII is dubious, however industrious the German people are. The very reason for the Marshall Plan and indeed the birth if the EU was to prevent another period when a Germany with no where to turn financially started yet another war. That's not speculation on my part, that is historical fact you can look up.
To start another war you need money; Germany indeed recovered pretty fast even after having fallen in the craphole post WWI due to the reparation being demanded post WWI, despite a world wide depression I may add! Of course, the Rhin industrial heartland hadn't been hit during WWI which helped..
I said 20 years for German full recovery (It took about 8 years with the Marshall Plan) (that means back to pre-war strength by the late 1960s). Twenty years to recover from this kind of devastation is indeed quick. Germany had many advantages, especially post WWII, which made this recovery likely. The post WWII boom economy and geopolitics (once the immediate post WWII deep recession subsided) would have made that recovery even more likely. Greece doesn't the many advantages of Germany and certainly doesn't have the timing of Germany. The European economy is certainly no booming...
The main reason for the Marshall plan was the USSR quickly becoming a treat in 1946-1947, without that pressure I doubt there would have been such an extensive program. The Marshall plan was serving US interests firstly; that it helped Germans was incidental.
BTW, I'm pretty well versed in history ( I read a lot and watch lots of doc) and specifically studied German industry for all of the 1990-1991 period (we had some deep exchange programs with several Science & Tech institutes at that time).
After reading this thread I'm beginning to think the average American does not know the difference between socialism and communism. But with only having the option to vote right or extreme right, that's not so weird, right?
But, back on topic: good for Apple, for being involved in the world, and for anticipating. Not that iCloud is that useful or crucial, but good for them for continuing service in case payments are blocked.
And yet you’re still wrong. Your appeal to authority is meaningless.
Originally Posted by lightknight
Ad-hom right off the bat, nice!
Which isn’t a point in itself in favor of your argument.
Our societies suffer from the choice of a minority nigh insignificant save for their political clout.
So why is discussion of anything other than fixing the actual problem entertained?
Just say you don’t know from the get-go and you won’t waste people’s time.
Hardly matters when both are evil, does it?
No, no, no. American politics are a metric of normalcy, and if anything we’re left of center, on the average. The progressive left becoming ever more extreme doesn’t make us far right.
Yeah, and? A currency collapse will actually fix the underlying problems elsewhere. Kicking the can down the road has happened for a century now. We’re tired of it. It can’t continue forever.
The only thing sane adults should be rooting for is the destruction of the system that allowed this to happen.
Ad-hom right off the bat, nice!
---> Ad hominem? No. Ad hominem would be if I left only one negative interpretation. I gave a range of possible reasons, one of which being me being possibly wrong, however unlikely it is by now. You might want to study on argumentation. I advise Schopenhauer's Art of being right.
---> Right off the bat? Your definition of right off the bat is weird. You started it by calling people "childish" and "uneducated". That's "ad hominem" and that's "right off the bat".
Which isn’t a point in itself in favor of your argument.
---> It is, but you seem to miss the point. Says stuff about your inability (or unwillingness, if I'm being nice) to try and see things from the people's perspective.
Just say you don’t know from the get-go and you won’t waste people’s time.
---> It is amazing how you assume people don't know. So, let's make things clear. I don't believe I "don't know". Whether or not you believe I'm an idiot, childish, or uneducated, doesn't automatically make it true. As for wasting people's time... if people take time to read our posts, they clearly enjoy it by now.
The only thing sane adults should be rooting for is the destruction of the system that allowed this to happen.
---> This is not true either. Destroying the system might cause more pain and anguish than fixing it slowly, or even than letting it be, for one. On top of it, you're implying that people who don't root for your cause are childish or insane... again. Science and caution are better guides than feelings.
I've never been a great fan of your posts, or Apple][, since both of you tend to be agressive and pretty much on the opposite side of the political scale, even though both of you sometimes bring interesting information to these parts. But seriously, this time? It's ridiculous. You're entrenched in your (wrong) assumption that people who disagree with you are childish, uneducated, or stupid. It's just sad.
Also, I'm pretty curious what "education" allows you to make such strong statements on other people... Are you a PhD from the London School of Economics (and Political Science), or maybe Yale?
This has nothing to do with individual citizens financial problems or credit card debt, they literally are not allowed to send money out of country. The banks are denying all credit cards and other payments. If they were millionaires they couldn't renew their iCloud accounts.
Thank you for a voice of sanity in this discussion. The reason Apple gave people a "free" month of service has nothing to do with sympathy for Greeks or trying to alleviate their economic problems. It's only about the fact that with the capital controls Greeks cannot pay anyone of any kind outside of Greece and cannot use their credit cards outside of Greece. The alternative (which nearly all other companies with automatic payments have done) is to cut off their Greek subscribers and make them fix things when the banks open again.
Please learn to put aside the emotions and personal opinions and see the facts!
It's only about the fact that with the capital controls Greeks cannot pay anyone of any kind outside of Greece and cannot use their credit cards outside of Greece.
Very true, not to mention that those users who'd have lost data would have been angry at Apple, even though this would just have been "business". Keeping people happy is good business.
Small anecdote, when I was a student I had several students from Eastern countries in my building, and they all shared two characteristics. For one, they came from "affluent" families there, who could afford to send their children abroad or had the connections to secure funding. Second, all of them came from families with bank accounts outside of country, "just in case" something like what happened to the Greek last week would happen.
I'm actually astonished that Apple users who can afford iCloud's storage in Greece (which is not that cheap on a Greek salary...) don't have a bank account out of Greece. It shows a sharp divide between users who can afford Apple devices/storage plans and people with financial mobility. But then again, as an expatriate, I tend to see Europe as lacking borders (inside...), which, as Greece reminded us all, isn't quite true.
Are you serious?
The national minimum wage in Greece is 684 euros a month, 20GB of iCloud storage is 1 euro a month, 200 GB is 4 euros a month, 0.6% percent of that minimum wage.
I suspect a Greek needing even 200GB of iCloud storage has an income well above that minimum wage.
I'm actually astonished that Apple users who can afford iCloud's storage in Greece (which is not that cheap on a Greek salary...) don't have a bank account out of Greece. It shows a sharp divide between users who can afford Apple devices/storage plans and people with financial mobility. But then again, as an expatriate, I tend to see Europe as lacking borders (inside...), which, as Greece reminded us all, isn't quite true.
Many Greeks do have bank accounts outside of Greece, but mainly the rich ones and they don't want anyone to know about them so they're not going to set up an account like iCloud to draw from it. There are many restrictions on Greek citizens sending money out of the country, so basically the ones who sent the money years ago are the ones with the accounts.
I can't believe how quickly this forum turned into a lot of ranting about "those nasty Greeks deserve to rot in hell because they're all bad people, every one of them." The people who write these things obviously don't understand (at least) two important things:
1. There are lots of Greeks who pay their taxes and obey the laws. They're the ones most hurt by this crisis. The rich can hide their income, not pay taxes, and already have plenty to live on.
2. The austerity measures have only made the economic problems worse. Such laws as lowering salaries and pensions in the private sector only reduce the taxable income, spending power, and quality of life. So if Greeks object to more austerity, it's because all it's done is create a lot of hardship, without solving any of the problems. And let's not even talk about such brilliant ideas as raising the taxes on heating oil so the price quadrupled.
Are you serious?
The national minimum wage in Greece is 684 euros a month, 20GB of iCloud storage is 1 euro a month, 200 GB is 4 euros a month, 0.6% percent of that minimum wage.
I suspect a Greek needing even 200GB of iCloud storage has an income well above that minimum wage.
I expect I wasn't clear enough.
My point was exactly "I suspect a Greek needing even 200GB of iCloud storage has an income well above that minimum wage." If you have such income, you probably also have the know-how that should push you to have a bank abroad, especially when things start looking bleak. That's why I told the story of my student friends.
Also, a bit of perspective: I'm Western European, I have a normal salary, I own several Macs and iPads and an iPhone, and I have iCloud storage (lowest plan, because I don't use that much). I consider iCloud rather expensive, in that perspective, for the service it renders, but I pay it nonetheless, because I appreciate the service. At 4 euros a month, which is 50-ish a year, I'd be thinking twice before signing in (but hey, maybe it's just my education... don't sign for recurring payments you can avoid). I spend only 3 euros a month on my phone plan, because I hate spending on stuff I don't use. The outcome is that I paid for my Apple Watch using the money saved on my phone plan, and I laugh at people who deem the Watch "too expensive for them" while paying 50 euros a month for phone hours they don't use.
And of course, the non Greeks will eat dust because that's how you live free usually; food is for chumps... (sic).
Considering they borrowed the money FRAUDULENTLY by cooking their fracking books to get the loans (and even enter the Euro), I wouldn't too smug about those Greeks ethical and moral standing. I'm tired of total utter garbage being said. BTW, I vote Liberal an entitled dickhead leftist is not part of the equation.
Nobody here has put forward one reason why Euro members (you know real people with god damn real jobs) should foot the massive bill for this; why no spend money on some other worthy cause like Syria or Vaccination programs. Greek seem that money is a birth right or something!
It's always some abstract "obviously evil" (sic) creditor this, creditor that; but in the end it people in Spain, Italy, Germany, France, Belgium, Netherland who pay the bills and yes, they do vote too...
If you cook your books and good a loan. They had 5 years for a ton of reforms, most non even monetary and sat on their tumb up their ass (the same one they did the finger to "evil" Germany with.
By this logic, you are directly responsible for every fucked up thing your government has ever done.The fact is, Greece's unsustainable debt was 100% of GDP a while ago.
After these "bailouts" and doing EXACTLY what troika requested TO THE LETTER, conditions to getting the money in the first place, the debt has exploded to 18x% of GDP and what small parts of the economy did produce wealth are now in shambles.
So I force you to jump through hoops to lend you money at an inflated interest rate. You do so, but the hoops I made you jump through have destroyed your ability to pay back the money you borrowed.
This is called predation. The smartest thing Greece can do is tell the eurozone to eat a dick and stard courting Russia, but the current government (and all parties except Golden Dawn, who are far right wing) are complicit in what is going on and on the take.
What I want to know is how Iceland was able to get out of it. And for all of Italy, France, Spain's bluster.... they are not doing much better than Greece was in 2012
Take your smugness out of the equation and read between the lines. There's a story behind the story and all of this is happening by design.
What I want to know is how Iceland was able to get out of it. And for all of Italy, France, Spain's bluster.... they are not doing much better than Greece was in 2012
And that is the core problem, the main reason for everyone posturing "oh, we would NEVAH do things as Greece did".
If I remember right, Tax Evasion is twice Euroland's debt, and the black economy is 30% at least of the standard economy. Germany itself, not to mention The Netherlands, is not as healthy as it would like people to think, and its "local industry" is made of a lot of assemblers of parts made in the East of Europe or China. Under calls for austerity in Greece seems to be the fear that people start looking under your curtain if you were to not yell loud enough at Greece.
As to how Iceland got out... If I got things right, Iceland was growing a dangerous competitor to London's Almighty City, and due to an accidental freezing of all Icelandic assets in Britain, that competitor died. Freezing for terrorism reasons, wasn't it? Then Iceland, being a relatively small population, decided to nationalise banks, and basically go against all measures that have been imposed on Greece, and rely on their others assets to pay their debts. Greece is probably too big to play that game. That's at least how I understood it. Any Icelandic person is welcome to explain if I messed up everything.
It's amazing just how ungrounded in reality money can be. Iceland's economy died in three days, Greece in a week, and the growth of the Gerek debt 18 fold shows how related to industrial or retirement reasons all this really is.
AFTER LONGEST EU SUMMIT IN HISTORY, GREECE SIGNED OFF ON EVERYTHING.
IMF involvement.
No debt relief.
Sale of 50 billion Euros worth of government assets (25% of Greek GDP)! Assets will not be moved to Luxembourg though, the only thing Tspiras won.
EU monitoring of Greek government.
https://archive.is/bMT6o
Tsipras almost left but the European Commission president locked him in: https://archive.is/ZTijp
Money to keep Greek banks afloat released.
REST OF BAILOUT FUNDS NEED GREEK ACTION, 10 DEMANDS, JULY 15 DEADLINE.
BRITAIN REJECTS CONTRIBUTING TO BAILOUT TRANSITION LOAN FOR GREEK BANKS.
https://archive.is/RLC3G
YANIS: IT'S A NEW TREATY OF VERSAILLES.
https://archive.is/DKh99
>In the [1967] coup d’état the choice of weapon used in order to bring down democracy then was the tanks. Well, this time it was the banks.
Deal fails to meet needs of anyone:
https://archive.is/7CYS9
https://archive.is/rKhaG
SYRIZA COMMIES REVOLT, CALL FOR EXPULSION OF TSIPRAS.
TSIPRAS COALITION LEADER WON'T SUPPORT THE AGREEMENT.
"GREECE AT AUSCHWITZ" SAYS CONSERVATIVE NEWSPAPER. GOLDEN DAWN WAS THE MAIN PARTY DEFENDING THE NO CAMP IN VOTE.
TSIPRAS PLANNING TO SACK MINISTERS FOR DISLOYALTY.
ECB CAN **** NATIONAL GOVERNMENTS AND TAKE THEIR MONEY WITH 85% VOTE IN ECB BOARD OF DIRECTORS.
POSSIBILITY OF GREEK GOVERNMENT SUING GOLDMAN SACHS FOR MOVING GREECE INTO THE EURO.
https://archive.is/liRJp
TSIPRAS' MARRIAGE STATUS: OVER.
http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/585323/Greek-debt-crisis-Desperate-Prime-Minister-says-Wife-will-leave-me-if-I-surrender-to-EU
Greece has mandatory conscription, all men in the country are required to serve nine months, meaning the entire adult male population has basic military training.
To start another war you need money; Germany indeed recovered pretty fast even after having fallen in the craphole post WWI due to the reparation being demanded post WWI, despite a world wide depression I may add! Of course, the Rhin industrial heartland hadn't been hit during WWI which helped..
If I may add, just as with Greece entering the Union, there were political considerations at play.
The Austrian Empire a casualty of WWI, there was a power vacuum in the East, that the capitalist economies on the west saw dangerously getting filled by the young Soviet Union. The British Empire, and colonial France were vying for power still, and America of course was re-starting its massive increase in political and industrial power after the 1921 crisis. None of the big three wanted a communist haven, already huge by size, to be the major player east of the Rhine, and were willing to let fascist ideologies prosper to avoid communism.
Listening to nazi propaganda (while dangerous...) is enlightening about the role of fascism in the nazi agenda. The people (Ein Volk, in Blut...) work to make the Industry prosper, under the guidance of the Party, and the protection of the Army. This role, of course, is similar in the Italian version (Mussolini, after all, was big friend of Jewish industrialists (at first...) Amedeo Grassini, and his daughter, Mussolini's mistress Sarfatty, had a direct input in that respect on policies pro-industry. Of course the Spanish version is also very similar, and well publicised given the involvement of American superstar writer and KGB agent Ernest Hemingway against the Nationalists of Franco. It is to be noted though that America's government non-interventionist policies, while often portrayed as an "active inaction" helping Franco by the left, is generally admitted to be more intrinsic to American sensibilities. However, just as big money's support to the other European dictators, the support of noted billionaires (the ones who made these well known skyscrapers in NYC...) helped Franco win.
We therefore see an interesting picture here: the left, Soviet Union first, pushing against the capitalist-backed fascist dictators. UK and France, while wary of Germany, play it against each other (school books of the era are fascinating, especially the parts about navies and commercial fleets, in the last pages, often in color... tells a lot about what your focus in on, what you put in color). Obviously, depending on which side is in power in these countries, the attitude towards Germany is different. Aristide Briand for example pushed for clemency, while Poincaré was a hardliner and had the Ruhr occupied until he relented and let American-led plans Dawes and Young be enabled. In the same era, France, still one of the big three, has to contend with a military strategy of "avoiding unnecessary deaths while protecting the territory" that comes from having witnessed so much suffering (millions of invalids and widows after WW1, some 10 to 15 years ago only, at that point).... but still is the main protector of small Eastern non-soviet countries, such as Poland. Letting Germany rebuild by helping them out on the financial side seems like a good idea, to be able to focus on "the real enemy", Communist Russia, when a lot of your soldiers are busy protecting Poland, right?
(Except then , Germany and Russia share Czechoslovakia, Germany invades the Poland you've been so busy protecting from Communism, shit hits the fan, and blood runs deep...)
Another point about Briand: in that era, Communism tends to refer to itself as l'Internationale. The left sees the fate of German workers as directly linked to the fate of UK or France's workers, and are willing to help Germany out for that reason. Also, they're very aware that the harder the conditions in a country, the easier it is for far-right parties to progress, and also willing to help Germany in order to try to reduce the pull of the Nazis (or their previous incarnations from the various Freikorps...) It is not a coincidence that Nazi means "national socialism", as it was designed to pull people from "socialism", e.g. leftist movements, towards "nationalism", in the most racial sense it probably has ever had.
So, yes, Germany recovered fast, yes, the fact that the Rhine powerhouse was mostly intact helped them a lot, especially since their three competitors were broken France, faraway America, and island-UK, but the political push to help them out, whether from the right afraid of the Soviets, or from the left afraid of letting the far-right fester, definitely helped out enormously.
Imagine if voters in Greece were to vote in a pro-austerity, pro-industry, anti-socialist, hard liberal government? Wouldn't, whatever their actual decisions, that government get much easier access to loans and money than the current left one, or its socialist predecessors? Politics are much, much more relevant to this game than real financial and industry considerations, I'm afraid.
>In the [1967] coup d’état the choice of weapon used in order to bring down democracy then was the tanks. Well, this time it was the banks.
This one is awesome. Some days, being an journalist is fun.
Also, thanks for the links.
Imagine if voters in Greece were to vote in a pro-austerity, pro-industry, anti-socialist, hard liberal government? Wouldn't, whatever their actual decisions, that government get much easier access to loans and money than the current left one, or its socialist predecessors? Politics are much, much more relevant to this game than real financial and industry considerations, I'm afraid.
They did! In 2013. That's the government that practically welcomed new austerity measures every couple of months and led the people to be completely fed up with austerity. One could indeed say that that government had much easier access to loans and money, but at the cost of driving down salaries, pensions, selling off any profitable government-owned entities (the few that there were), and basically driving the majority of the population to below the poverty level.
This is why people were ready to believe even someone like Mr. Tsipras who said he would remove all the austerity measures. People were so desperate they even believed a politician. And they even believed him when he said that the referendum was about democracy and not about passing the responsibility for bad decisions to the people. Oh well, what's life without a dream . . . ?