HD format adoption doesn't trail DVD all that much. That it does trail is to be expected because of the format war and that the improvement of Blu-Ray over DVD isn't as stark as DVD over VHS.
You can't say DVD has "won" in this context unless it is the last mass market disc format before we transition to digital downloads.
You can't say Blu-Ray has "lost" vs DVD for at least another XMas. If Blu-Ray can't sell at least 1M standalone units in 2008 and 4M units in 2009 then you can say its likely a niche format.
These numbers would match DVD uptake if you start from the effective end of the format war (Jan 2008). Personally, I think 4M units in 2009 might be a high estimate since I don't think that Blu-Ray will have the same rapid adoption rate as DVD.
Someone made the point the other day, I believe it was Gizmodo or Engadget, than HDM adoption has been about the same as DVD was, except that those figures account for two combined HDM formats. The question they proposed was, what's going to happen to those adoption rates now it's basically one format instead of two? Now that Blu-Ray players have jumped by $100, and the BOGO deals have dried up? Methinks it's likely we'll see a drop in adoption rates before there's an increase.
2006 launch, 2007 first full year. I guess if you total the two HD formats in the last two years you aren't trailing the DVD numbers by much as I said.
For 2008 though I don't see 4M (standalone) sales for Blu-Ray. I can see that in 2009 with around 10M in 2010. If Blu-Ray can't do that then, yes, it may become a niche format.
This go around the PS3 made a much earlier impact than the PS2 since that trailed the launch of DVD by 3 years. The impact of consoles on the DVD market was zero from 1997 to 1999.
2006 launch, 2007 first full year. I guess if you total the two HD formats in the last two years you aren't trailing the DVD numbers by much as I said.
For 2008 though I don't see 4M (standalone) sales for Blu-Ray. I can see that in 2009 with around 10M in 2010. If Blu-Ray can't do that then, yes, it may become a niche format.
This go around the PS3 made a much earlier impact than the PS2 since that trailed the launch of DVD by 3 years. The impact of consoles on the DVD market was zero from 1997 to 1999.
That's also a rigged number because people that still have not bought one HDTV are not going to be buying Blu-ray disk players, and that was not the case when DVD came out. Everyone on earth interested in DVD at least had a set, or multiple TV sets, and Right now the majority of owners of HDTV's only own one HDTV not one for each room. You wont see Blu Ray make the adoption that fast, and it will not become a niche market because of the Blu Ray vs. DVD sales from years ago. It is however the eventual High Definition format that people will have to migrate to.
That's also a rigged number because people that still have not bought one HDTV are not going to be buying Blu-ray disk players, and that was not the case when DVD came out. Everyone on earth interested in DVD at least had a set, or multiple TV sets, and Right now the majority of owners of HDTV's only own one HDTV not one for each room. You wont see Blu Ray make the adoption that fast, and it will not become a niche market because of the Blu Ray vs. DVD sales from years ago. It is however the eventual High Definition format that people will have to migrate to.
However just to play devil's advocate. 8 out of every 10 new TVs sold last year were HD.
Food for thought. However I still don't think that buying an HD TV means they're going to buy a BR player. I still hear people out there saying they are quite content with DVD as their home video source.
However just to play devil's advocate. 8 out of every 10 new TVs sold last year were HD.
Food for thought. However I still don't think that buying an HD TV means they're going to buy a BR player. I still hear people out there saying they are quite content with DVD as their home video source.
But how many are actually buying new TV's? There are plenty of people that will sit on their SDTV's for the next 5 years or more.
Also after making the HDTV investment a person is likely to settle their funds before tackling more fruitful things.
With the digital switchover coming, a number of replacement tvs will be bought in 2009.
However you are correct. This will take quite awhile, especially as we head into an economic slowdown.
BR prices have to come down much more quickly. With the new download market rising just as DVD sales start to fall, the Blu-Ray market will never be as lucrative for studios as DVDs were.
But how many are actually buying new TV's? There are plenty of people that will sit on their SDTV's for the next 5 years or more.
Also after making the HDTV investment a person is likely to settle their funds before tackling more fruitful things.
Yet, the HDTV's are being sold 10X+ more than the HDM players, even now. Everyone saw what had happened when only three companies like Sharp, Sony, and Panasonic had started giving away free Blu-Ray player with their HDTV purchases, the free give away HDM player units made up more than 90% of the total blu-ray units sold for the given week.
At the current rate, the HDM adoption for the mass consumers will take long time. Even if it ever happens, it may not be in the form of optical media.
With the digital switchover coming, a number of replacement tvs will be bought in 2009.
I wouldn't be too certain of that. Anecdotely, I don't know anyone who will need to buy a new TV or a digital tuner when the digital switchover happens. I can't think of anyone besides myself that is not on cable or satellite and my TV only gets the Netflix channel.
(Ok, I guess taken literally A number of replacement TVs being bought in 2009 is pretty much inevitable. What I mean is I don't think there will be a spike in the buying trends)
However just to play devil's advocate. 8 out of every 10 new TVs sold last year were HD.
Food for thought. However I still don't think that buying an HD TV means they're going to buy a BR player. I still hear people out there saying they are quite content with DVD as their home video source.
It's important to note that the reason HDTV sales are finally 8 in 10 is simply because you can hardly buy a television anymore that isn't HD, especially if you want something over 30 inches. If Blu-Ray follows the trend of HDTVs, HDM isn't really going to take off until consumers can no longer buy a DVD player that doesn't also play Blu-Ray discs. Considering the damn things are still $300-$500, that's going to be a long time from now.
Yet, the HDTV's are being sold 10X+ more than the HDM players, even now. Everyone saw what had happened when only three companies like Sharp, Sony, and Panasonic had started giving away free Blu-Ray player with their HDTV purchases, the free give away HDM player units made up more than 90% of the total blu-ray units sold for the given week.
At the current rate, the HDM adoption for the mass consumers will take long time. Even if it ever happens, it may not be in the form of optical media.
No kidding. What do you think I've been saying? People will first have to buy an HDTV before even thinking about a Blu Ray player.
What's this "now" business? Blu-Ray supporters were saying 12 months ago that Blu-Ray had already won.
And HD-DVD supporters were saying 'Ohhh, just you wait! Any day now!'
Now that HD-DVD is out on its ass people are trying to build a better foxhole rather than thinking about just buying in so we can finally have one damn format. I find it amazing that folks who have been rooting 'one format! one format!' are still talking gloom and doom now that it finally and almost inarguably seems to have arrived.
Frankly, I'm only a marginal Blu-ray supporter. I could have gone either way, but figured the PS3 was a safer bet. I own plenty of discs, but I have little loyalty to the format itself. And if HD-DVD had won this format war, I'd have dutifully gone out and bought a player, because I care about watching movies, not posting sales figures and sniping back and forth on a message board.
HD-DVD is no longer in this battle. If you want HD movies to succeed, then go buy a Blu-ray player and start talking with your wallet. If you are so bound to HD-DVD as a format that you'd rather see high-definition crash and burn or, God forbid, default to digital downloading, then please, continue mouthing off and allow both formats to die. This thread is moot.
And HD-DVD supporters were saying 'Ohhh, just you wait! Any day now!'
Now that HD-DVD is out on its ass people are trying to build a better foxhole rather than thinking about just buying in so we can finally have one damn format.
thanks for the foxhole analogy
Having followed this thread for a few years, I REALLY want to see people coming out of the foxhole, or else watch them get blown to bits for their unyielding stubbornness.
Petty I may be, but its the winners not the whiners that get to write the history books.
And HD-DVD supporters were saying 'Ohhh, just you wait! Any day now!'
Now that HD-DVD is out on its ass people are trying to build a better foxhole rather than thinking about just buying in so we can finally have one damn format. I find it amazing that folks who have been rooting 'one format! one format!' are still talking gloom and doom now that it finally and almost inarguably seems to have arrived.
Frankly, I'm only a marginal Blu-ray supporter. I could have gone either way, but figured the PS3 was a safer bet. I own plenty of discs, but I have little loyalty to the format itself. And if HD-DVD had won this format war, I'd have dutifully gone out and bought a player, because I care about watching movies, not posting sales figures and sniping back and forth on a message board.
HD-DVD is no longer in this battle. If you want HD movies to succeed, then go buy a Blu-ray player and start talking with your wallet. If you are so bound to HD-DVD as a format that you'd rather see high-definition crash and burn or, God forbid, default to digital downloading, then please, continue mouthing off and allow both formats to die. This thread is moot.
It has always been my intent to purchase both formats, because like you said it should be about watching movies and not sales figures. I started with HD DVD this past fall, as it was far less expensive at the time and had more of the movies I wanted to own. My intent was to migrate to format-neutrality once dual-format players dropped below $500; that's still my intent. I don't want to spend $400 on a single-format player. I also don't want to purchase a player that won't ever be able to use all of the next-gen features coming later for Blu, or be able to download the oft-needed compatibility updates automatically. Basically, I don't see Blu going anywhere until 1.) their prices come down by half again and 2.) it's safe to buy a player other than a PS3. In the meantime, I'll be renting Blu-exclusive films via my Apple TV in HD. With dual-format players already at $685, they should have no problem falling below $500 by this summer.
And I wouldn't be too hard on the HD DVD fans for their strong support these past couple of years; if the coin had flipped the other way, we could just as easily be talking about the death of Blu-Ray right now.
Comments
IMATION SCRAPS HD DVD BLANK MEDIA
http://www.warren-news.com/
Who's that guy on stage, introducing this fat lady!
thats a big move
HD format adoption doesn't trail DVD all that much. That it does trail is to be expected because of the format war and that the improvement of Blu-Ray over DVD isn't as stark as DVD over VHS.
You can't say DVD has "won" in this context unless it is the last mass market disc format before we transition to digital downloads.
You can't say Blu-Ray has "lost" vs DVD for at least another XMas. If Blu-Ray can't sell at least 1M standalone units in 2008 and 4M units in 2009 then you can say its likely a niche format.
These numbers would match DVD uptake if you start from the effective end of the format war (Jan 2008). Personally, I think 4M units in 2009 might be a high estimate since I don't think that Blu-Ray will have the same rapid adoption rate as DVD.
Someone made the point the other day, I believe it was Gizmodo or Engadget, than HDM adoption has been about the same as DVD was, except that those figures account for two combined HDM formats. The question they proposed was, what's going to happen to those adoption rates now it's basically one format instead of two? Now that Blu-Ray players have jumped by $100, and the BOGO deals have dried up? Methinks it's likely we'll see a drop in adoption rates before there's an increase.
ahh and so omitting the years between, such as DVD 1997 BD/HD-DVD 2006
9 years of sales.. of corse TOTAL SALES look worse for the newcomer, Have you got for instance the comparison of sales since inception for both?
We have the year to year sales of DVD players.
http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articl...advdsales.html
2006 launch, 2007 first full year. I guess if you total the two HD formats in the last two years you aren't trailing the DVD numbers by much as I said.
For 2008 though I don't see 4M (standalone) sales for Blu-Ray. I can see that in 2009 with around 10M in 2010. If Blu-Ray can't do that then, yes, it may become a niche format.
This go around the PS3 made a much earlier impact than the PS2 since that trailed the launch of DVD by 3 years. The impact of consoles on the DVD market was zero from 1997 to 1999.
Methinks it's likely we'll see a drop in adoption rates before there's an increase.
Doubtful. Now that the uncertainty is over I think more folks will buy into HD players.
Doubtful. Now that the uncertainty is over I think more folks will buy into HD players.
For enthusiasts or for mass consumers?
I don't see such thing happening in the enthusiasts market other than taking a down turn momentarily.
Perhaps, the HDM popularity must be different for the mass market, now?
We have the year to year sales of DVD players.
http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articl...advdsales.html
2006 launch, 2007 first full year. I guess if you total the two HD formats in the last two years you aren't trailing the DVD numbers by much as I said.
For 2008 though I don't see 4M (standalone) sales for Blu-Ray. I can see that in 2009 with around 10M in 2010. If Blu-Ray can't do that then, yes, it may become a niche format.
This go around the PS3 made a much earlier impact than the PS2 since that trailed the launch of DVD by 3 years. The impact of consoles on the DVD market was zero from 1997 to 1999.
That's also a rigged number because people that still have not bought one HDTV are not going to be buying Blu-ray disk players, and that was not the case when DVD came out. Everyone on earth interested in DVD at least had a set, or multiple TV sets, and Right now the majority of owners of HDTV's only own one HDTV not one for each room. You wont see Blu Ray make the adoption that fast, and it will not become a niche market because of the Blu Ray vs. DVD sales from years ago. It is however the eventual High Definition format that people will have to migrate to.
That's also a rigged number because people that still have not bought one HDTV are not going to be buying Blu-ray disk players, and that was not the case when DVD came out. Everyone on earth interested in DVD at least had a set, or multiple TV sets, and Right now the majority of owners of HDTV's only own one HDTV not one for each room. You wont see Blu Ray make the adoption that fast, and it will not become a niche market because of the Blu Ray vs. DVD sales from years ago. It is however the eventual High Definition format that people will have to migrate to.
However just to play devil's advocate. 8 out of every 10 new TVs sold last year were HD.
Food for thought. However I still don't think that buying an HD TV means they're going to buy a BR player. I still hear people out there saying they are quite content with DVD as their home video source.
However just to play devil's advocate. 8 out of every 10 new TVs sold last year were HD.
Food for thought. However I still don't think that buying an HD TV means they're going to buy a BR player. I still hear people out there saying they are quite content with DVD as their home video source.
But how many are actually buying new TV's? There are plenty of people that will sit on their SDTV's for the next 5 years or more.
Also after making the HDTV investment a person is likely to settle their funds before tackling more fruitful things.
However you are correct. This will take quite awhile, especially as we head into an economic slowdown.
BR prices have to come down much more quickly. With the new download market rising just as DVD sales start to fall, the Blu-Ray market will never be as lucrative for studios as DVDs were.
But how many are actually buying new TV's? There are plenty of people that will sit on their SDTV's for the next 5 years or more.
Also after making the HDTV investment a person is likely to settle their funds before tackling more fruitful things.
Yet, the HDTV's are being sold 10X+ more than the HDM players, even now. Everyone saw what had happened when only three companies like Sharp, Sony, and Panasonic had started giving away free Blu-Ray player with their HDTV purchases, the free give away HDM player units made up more than 90% of the total blu-ray units sold for the given week.
At the current rate, the HDM adoption for the mass consumers will take long time. Even if it ever happens, it may not be in the form of optical media.
With the digital switchover coming, a number of replacement tvs will be bought in 2009.
I wouldn't be too certain of that. Anecdotely, I don't know anyone who will need to buy a new TV or a digital tuner when the digital switchover happens. I can't think of anyone besides myself that is not on cable or satellite and my TV only gets the Netflix channel.
(Ok, I guess taken literally A number of replacement TVs being bought in 2009 is pretty much inevitable. What I mean is I don't think there will be a spike in the buying trends)
http://www.icv2.com/articles/home/12015.html
for those that need to know
However just to play devil's advocate. 8 out of every 10 new TVs sold last year were HD.
Food for thought. However I still don't think that buying an HD TV means they're going to buy a BR player. I still hear people out there saying they are quite content with DVD as their home video source.
It's important to note that the reason HDTV sales are finally 8 in 10 is simply because you can hardly buy a television anymore that isn't HD, especially if you want something over 30 inches. If Blu-Ray follows the trend of HDTVs, HDM isn't really going to take off until consumers can no longer buy a DVD player that doesn't also play Blu-Ray discs. Considering the damn things are still $300-$500, that's going to be a long time from now.
Yet, the HDTV's are being sold 10X+ more than the HDM players, even now. Everyone saw what had happened when only three companies like Sharp, Sony, and Panasonic had started giving away free Blu-Ray player with their HDTV purchases, the free give away HDM player units made up more than 90% of the total blu-ray units sold for the given week.
At the current rate, the HDM adoption for the mass consumers will take long time. Even if it ever happens, it may not be in the form of optical media.
No kidding. What do you think I've been saying? People will first have to buy an HDTV before even thinking about a Blu Ray player.
What's this "now" business? Blu-Ray supporters were saying 12 months ago that Blu-Ray had already won.
And HD-DVD supporters were saying 'Ohhh, just you wait! Any day now!'
Now that HD-DVD is out on its ass people are trying to build a better foxhole rather than thinking about just buying in so we can finally have one damn format. I find it amazing that folks who have been rooting 'one format! one format!' are still talking gloom and doom now that it finally and almost inarguably seems to have arrived.
Frankly, I'm only a marginal Blu-ray supporter. I could have gone either way, but figured the PS3 was a safer bet. I own plenty of discs, but I have little loyalty to the format itself. And if HD-DVD had won this format war, I'd have dutifully gone out and bought a player, because I care about watching movies, not posting sales figures and sniping back and forth on a message board.
HD-DVD is no longer in this battle. If you want HD movies to succeed, then go buy a Blu-ray player and start talking with your wallet. If you are so bound to HD-DVD as a format that you'd rather see high-definition crash and burn or, God forbid, default to digital downloading, then please, continue mouthing off and allow both formats to die. This thread is moot.
And HD-DVD supporters were saying 'Ohhh, just you wait! Any day now!'
Now that HD-DVD is out on its ass people are trying to build a better foxhole rather than thinking about just buying in so we can finally have one damn format.
thanks for the foxhole analogy
Having followed this thread for a few years, I REALLY want to see people coming out of the foxhole, or else watch them get blown to bits for their unyielding stubbornness.
Petty I may be, but its the winners not the whiners that get to write the history books.
I just got a serious case of déjÃ* vu...
Chinese players? yeah me too.
Still, no harm in waiting on them, did the HD-DVD ones ever surface?
And HD-DVD supporters were saying 'Ohhh, just you wait! Any day now!'
Now that HD-DVD is out on its ass people are trying to build a better foxhole rather than thinking about just buying in so we can finally have one damn format. I find it amazing that folks who have been rooting 'one format! one format!' are still talking gloom and doom now that it finally and almost inarguably seems to have arrived.
Frankly, I'm only a marginal Blu-ray supporter. I could have gone either way, but figured the PS3 was a safer bet. I own plenty of discs, but I have little loyalty to the format itself. And if HD-DVD had won this format war, I'd have dutifully gone out and bought a player, because I care about watching movies, not posting sales figures and sniping back and forth on a message board.
HD-DVD is no longer in this battle. If you want HD movies to succeed, then go buy a Blu-ray player and start talking with your wallet. If you are so bound to HD-DVD as a format that you'd rather see high-definition crash and burn or, God forbid, default to digital downloading, then please, continue mouthing off and allow both formats to die. This thread is moot.
It has always been my intent to purchase both formats, because like you said it should be about watching movies and not sales figures. I started with HD DVD this past fall, as it was far less expensive at the time and had more of the movies I wanted to own. My intent was to migrate to format-neutrality once dual-format players dropped below $500; that's still my intent. I don't want to spend $400 on a single-format player. I also don't want to purchase a player that won't ever be able to use all of the next-gen features coming later for Blu, or be able to download the oft-needed compatibility updates automatically. Basically, I don't see Blu going anywhere until 1.) their prices come down by half again and 2.) it's safe to buy a player other than a PS3. In the meantime, I'll be renting Blu-exclusive films via my Apple TV in HD. With dual-format players already at $685, they should have no problem falling below $500 by this summer.
And I wouldn't be too hard on the HD DVD fans for their strong support these past couple of years; if the coin had flipped the other way, we could just as easily be talking about the death of Blu-Ray right now.