IDC predicts PC users won't upgrade to Windows 8, tablet sales will be "disappointing"

Posted:
in iPad edited January 2014
Microsoft's Windows 8 is still a year away, but IDC is already predicting that the new release will be "largely irrelevant" to conventional PC users and that its ability to sell tablets will be "disappointing."



While bullish about Microsoft's prospects for selling server editions of the new Windows 8, IDC states that "Windows 8 will be largely irrelevant to the users of traditional PCs, and we expect effectively no upgrade activity from Windows 7 to Windows 8 in that form factor," according to an overview of the report by Computerworld.



The reason Windows 8 is expected to stoke so few upgrades is because it won't offer much to existing PC users, aiming primarily at giving the existing Windows 7 a layer of "Metro" styled interfaces that Microsoft hopes to enable Windows to ship on iPad-like tablet hardware.



In addition to adding the Metro interface, which originated on the Zune before being adapted to Windows Phone 7 last year, the other major change in Windows 8 will be new support for ARM processors, enabling "Windows" to run on a new class of battery efficient new mobile devices.



"There will be intense scrutiny on Microsoft?s ability to deliver a successful tablet experience aboard both x86-based tablets and on devices running ARM processors," IDC notes in its report, which states that the firm expects Windows 8 tablet sales to be "disappointing" next year.



"This is a tall order for Microsoft, and while the x86 tablet strategy makes sense as a transitional solution for today?s PC users, it will be the ARM-based devices that need to shine and clear a high bar already set by Apple.?



iOS vs Metro mobile devices



However, porting Windows 8 to ARM won't enable new devices to run existing Windows desktop software, all of which will need to be rewritten for the ARM chip. Apple faced similar issues in porting its Mac OS from 68k to PowerPC and eventually Intel processors, but at each transition, Apple included software to run existing Mac titles in emulation. Microsoft has announced it will not.



Apple also ported and refined Mac OS X to ARM-based mobile devices, rebranding the platform as iPhone OS and eventually iOS. However, Apple has never attempted to shoehorn existing Mac apps on iOS, instead rebuilding its own apps from scratch, suited to the unique environment of the iPhone, iPod touch and iPad. Microsoft has issued conflicting remarks about its software plans for Windows 8 tablets.



Apple spent years bringing its Pages, Keynote and Numbers apps from iWork and its iMovie and Garage Band apps from the iLife suite to iOS as mobile-optimized, touch based apps. In contrast, Microsoft has only suggested that it is still in the early conceptual stages of contemplating how its flagship Office apps might run in Windows 8's Metro environment.



Microsoft may ditch consumer PC market to focus on enterprise, licensing



The expectation that Microsoft will do well in selling Windows 8 to the server market but fail to entice consumers or IT departments to upgrade their desktops (many corporations have just finished upgrading to Windows 7, and typically plan to skip every other version of Windows, as many did previously with Windows Vista) could further entrench Microsoft into an enterprise market niche.



Apple has continued to eat up PC share among consumers, effectively owing all sales of both $1000 and up PCs as well as the vast majority of tablet purchases. The popularity of MacBook Air and Pro models have also increasingly worked Apple's PC sales into enterprise markets, following a surge of iOS devices that IT managers have relented much resistance to supporting.



In reaction to the success of the iPhone, Microsoft has increasingly worked to license its technologies to support Apple's devices, entering into a high profile agreement to license protocols related to its Exchange Server for push messaging just as the iPhone turned one year old. This year, rumors have surfaced indicating that Microsoft will also port its Office suite to the iPad, following Apple's own efforts to deliver iWork.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 137
    jexusjexus Posts: 373member
    Count me in to that group, I'm not upgrading to 8.
  • Reply 2 of 137
    apple ][apple ][ Posts: 8,425member
    Many windows users still use some old version of Explorer as their main browser. Windows users aren't cutting edge people and these kind of people are slow to adapt to new technologies and evolving trends.



    Windows 8 relies heavily on touch, and that is something which is completely foreign and strange to most Windows users.



    Windows tablets won't make much of a dent into anything. Microsoft should concentrate on making Xboxes.
  • Reply 3 of 137
    I won't be upgrading to Windows UN-Gr8 either, from what I've seen it's absolute crap.
  • Reply 4 of 137
    herbapouherbapou Posts: 2,221member
    They will still sell loads of win8 oem with all the new hardware.

    And Ms is porting office to ios so they also have an ARM version for win8 tablets
  • Reply 5 of 137
    walshbjwalshbj Posts: 864member
    I find it hard to believe this will ship next year.
  • Reply 6 of 137
    Way back when, every time I upgraded a windows OS, I always had issues. Usually, driver problems. With Mac upgrades, never had a problem. Not one!
  • Reply 7 of 137
    tylerk36tylerk36 Posts: 1,037member
    I have windows 8 Developer Preview on my machine and it is nothing but a piece of crap. I actually haven't booted to it for some time now. I should just format the drive.



    Microsoft can't make anything original. The start button takes you too a start type screen that is supposed to mimic a portable device. Kinda like launch pad on os x. Microsoft copy's Apple. What a piece of crap.
  • Reply 8 of 137
    cameronjcameronj Posts: 2,357member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by matter37 View Post


    I won't be upgrading to Windows UN-Gr8 either, from what I've seen it's absolute crap.



    I see that nickname catching on in a BIG BIG way. Well done sir.
  • Reply 9 of 137
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by herbapou View Post


    They will still sell loads of win8 oem with all the new hardware.

    And Ms is porting office to ios so they also have an ARM version for win8 tablets



    MS would be better off porting MS-Works to ARM... iOS and whatever!
  • Reply 10 of 137
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post


    Windows users aren't cutting edge people and these kind of people are slow to adapt to new technologies and evolving trends.



    Way to generalise about hundreds of millions of people. Some of them are cutting-edge people and some of them are not - just like with Mac OS.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by tylerk36 View Post


    Microsoft can't make anything original. The start button takes you too a start type screen that is supposed to mimic a portable device. Kinda like launch pad on os x. Microsoft copy's Apple. What a piece of crap.



    Are you saying that anything which uses a grid of icons is copying Apple?! Icon-based layouts were around long before Mac OS existed and they'll be around long after it's gone.



    Besides, Metro isn't really anything like Launchpad. Launchpad is static icons, where Metro is live tiles. Big difference.



    Anyway, most of you are missing the point, which is that Microsoft doesn't really give two hoots if hardly any users buy individual licences of Windows 8. They will make the vast majority of their money from OEMs and enterprises, like they always do. Buyers of OEM PCs buy whatever OS they are given.
  • Reply 11 of 137
    kreshkresh Posts: 379member
    Windows XP was the Fisher Price edition, and Windows 8 is turning into the LeapFrog edition.



    There is no way I will upgrade from Windows 7 to Windows 8. Metro is a cruel joke!
  • Reply 12 of 137
    Like they know a thing.
  • Reply 13 of 137
    When Windows 8 turns into a disaster of epic proportions, it will be the ideal time for Apple to announce OSX going open source, available for both Mac and Windows machines...
  • Reply 14 of 137
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by kresh View Post


    Windows XP was the Fisher Price edition



    Windows XP has sold over half a billion copies, and still commands about a third of the OS market ten years after it was released.



    I'd say that's pretty good going for a Fisher Price product.
  • Reply 15 of 137
    There is no way i will downgrade from OSX Lion to a cloner Microsoft bug infested, unsecure, super expensive OS. No thanks.
  • Reply 16 of 137
    This is what happens when you do not renew with IDC (Gartner, etc.).

    You get shit upon.

    Microsoft - I hope you learned your lesson.
  • Reply 17 of 137
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    Microsoft's Windows 8 is still a year away, but IDC is already predicting that the new release will be "largely irrelevant" to conventional PC users and that its ability to sell tablets will be "disappointing."



    Big deal - and no surprise.



    All desktop OSs have gotten mature enough that there's no longer any great reason to upgrade. Going from Win3.1 to Win95 was nearly a no-brainer. Going from Windows Vista to Windows 7 was a no-brainer. Going from OS X 10.1 to 10.2 was an easy decision. OS X 10.4 to 10.5 was fairly easy.



    Windows 7 to Windows 8? OS X Snow Leopard to Lion? Meh.
  • Reply 18 of 137


    The OS war is over..



    MS won the OS war!



    The new war is the Mobile OS war...



    MS has yet to field an army...



    The OS war may have already been won/lost!

  • Reply 19 of 137
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by davebarnes View Post


    This is what happens when you do not renew with IDC (Gartner, etc.).

    You get shit upon.

    Microsoft - I hope you learned your lesson.



    @davebarnes you get what you pay for... Sad, but true!
  • Reply 20 of 137
    conradjoeconradjoe Posts: 1,887member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post






    Microsoft may ditch consumer PC market












    Gotta love these analysts.
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