tmay

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tmay
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  • Apple expects 'iPhone 11' sales to match 2018 iPhone XS sales figures

    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    I thought Apple was still making over 90% of mobile revenue? Wait, I think "mobile" includes iPad. Do we have any recent figures.
    No recent figures that I have seen, but I haven't specifically looked either. Still, Apple is providing revenues and margins for the iPhone that easily eclipse the two volume leaders.

    When a recession hits, I'm convinced that we will see a further consolidation of Android OS device makers, and some exiting the market entirely. Apple will be fine, needless to say.



    Consolidation is already underway although Android device consolidation might not help Apple that much, especially as the two Android beneficiaries would see even more economies of scale on already vast portfolios. 
    ...and Apple will still be making the bulk of the profits with a mere three current models. Perhaps Apple has a better understanding of the benefits of economies of scale than Huawei.
    watto_cobra
  • Apple expects 'iPhone 11' sales to match 2018 iPhone XS sales figures

    I thought Apple was still making over 90% of mobile revenue? Wait, I think "mobile" includes iPad. Do we have any recent figures.
    No recent figures that I have seen, but I haven't specifically looked either. Still, Apple is providing revenues and margins for the iPhone that easily eclipse the two volume leaders.

    When a recession hits, I'm convinced that we will see a further consolidation of Android OS device makers, and some exiting the market entirely. Apple will be fine, needless to say.



    watto_cobra
  • Apple expects 'iPhone 11' sales to match 2018 iPhone XS sales figures

    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    All things considered, 75 million is pretty good.

    A major redesign and 5G for 2020 will possibly act as a double whammy against the 2019 refresh.

    There might even be a triple whammy if prices don't come down as those 2017 iPhone X purchasers who might be interested in upgrading this year (and have the money to do so) could eventually decide to wait until next year and squeeze even more out of their existing phone and the maximum possible out of the 2020 phone.

    On top of that, I saw a (possibly dodgy) article yesterday about Apple's difficulties in China:

    https://technode.com/2019/07/24/chinese-iphone-users-are-increasingly-opting-for-huawei-report/

    For me though, price remains the number one drawback.
    "For me though, price remains the number one drawback",

    Funny, I thought you hated iOS, so maybe you aren't telling the full story. Seems like you have an agenda to push lower prices.

    Oh, and that 75 million is just the initial order. I still expect Apple to need around 120 M of the new models over this model year, regardless of what is happening with Huawei.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/23/tech/washington-post-huawei-north-korea/index.html

    This is potentially very damaging to Huawei, and may be yet another cause to maintain the restrictions on sales of U.S. origin components to Huawei.

    "Last month, the US president said he would ease some restrictions on Huawei, saying he would allow American firms to resume sales to Huawei of products that don't pose a security threat.
    Following the Post report, Republican and Democratic lawmakers renewed demands for a tougher stance on Huawei. 
      Democratic Sen. Chris Van Hollen and Republican Sen. Tom Cotton urged Trump to impose orders banning the export of US parts and components to Chinese telecommunications companies like Huawei that violate US export control or sanctions laws.
      The United States needs to make it clear "that any company that does business with North Korea — like Huawei reportedly did — will face American sanctions," the senators said in a statement."
      Second post and you're already bringing politics in?

      'For me' means 'in my opinion'. No idea where you got the 'I hate iOS' from.

      Still, I will repeat: 75 million is pretty good all things considered. That was the key takeaway.
      Do you not believe that Huawei is as well benefitted by the same politics, only from the Chinese POV? 

      Huawei is being used as a political football, true, but it's not like they haven't earned the situation that they are in.
      But why bring that aspect into this story?

      It's about sales projections based on the supply chain. There is a high level reference to the general political situation too (the trade war in general) referencing manufacturing options.

      Competition obviously has a constant influence on sales projections, as does the feature spread of the phones and the final prices but to insert your North Korea claims  in here is pretty way off base.
      I'll post another, more general "political" link;

      https://time.com/5633390/fbi-christopher-wray-china-counterintelligence/

      "Wray said Chinese companies aren’t independent of the Chinese Communist Party, and that the country uses both legal and illegal means including hacking, getting information from Chinese graduate students at American universities and partnerships with American companies.

      He said some major universities have essentially created a “pipeline” of intellectual property heading back to China."

      Why insist? It's still irrelevant to the thread. 

      Tell me if you think the so called 'peak iPhone' has come and gone or if there is still room for a big shift upwards. Are these supposed iPhone goals conservative or unreasonably high? Tell me if you think prices will be adjusted downwards this September? Tell me if Samsung and Huawei have kept iPhone sales from increasing? Tell me if you think the lack of 5G will have a negative impact on sales. Tell me if you think potential upgraders with enough disposable income (especially iPhone X users on a two year cycle) could skip the 2019 phones. Tell me if you think those who struggle to reach iPhone price points and have little option but to go for older models, resent the fact that they don't have access to 'new' iPhones with their corresponding new designs.

      If want to unnecessarily plunk politics somewhere, better in an appropriate thread. I'll be the first to admit that Trump, China and Huawei are all tangled up and sometimes it isn't possible to avoid touching on the political side but I can't see much justification in this particular thread.
      ASP has relevance to your questions, as much as you are in denial of that.

      Whether Apple lowers its margins or creates a lower entry price point, I can't know, and I doubt that lack of 5G will lower sales this year below 180 Million, but if it does, one would expect a commensurate increase next year. I have stated that I expect 120 million of the new model in sales for next year, starting this September, based on the data I have seen for past model sales breakdown, ie, about 2/3 of iPhone unit sales are the current years models.

      Apple's iPhone user base continues to grow, and while Samsung and Huawei sell more phones, they do so at a at much lower ASP, and Apple continues to generate much more revenue and profit from its iPhone lineup than all of the Android OS devices makers combined. Sure, it isn't in the 90% range, like it was in the past, but for a mature product line, I'm not seeing any crisis from Apple not competing in the mid and low range. 

      As for the politics, I am just pointing out that Huawei isn't likely to get the reprieve from Trump and the U.S. Government that you seem to be expecting, and I have not problem seeing this as relevant to the story.
      watto_cobra
    • Apple expects 'iPhone 11' sales to match 2018 iPhone XS sales figures

      avon b7 said:
      tmay said:
      avon b7 said:
      tmay said:
      avon b7 said:
      All things considered, 75 million is pretty good.

      A major redesign and 5G for 2020 will possibly act as a double whammy against the 2019 refresh.

      There might even be a triple whammy if prices don't come down as those 2017 iPhone X purchasers who might be interested in upgrading this year (and have the money to do so) could eventually decide to wait until next year and squeeze even more out of their existing phone and the maximum possible out of the 2020 phone.

      On top of that, I saw a (possibly dodgy) article yesterday about Apple's difficulties in China:

      https://technode.com/2019/07/24/chinese-iphone-users-are-increasingly-opting-for-huawei-report/

      For me though, price remains the number one drawback.
      "For me though, price remains the number one drawback",

      Funny, I thought you hated iOS, so maybe you aren't telling the full story. Seems like you have an agenda to push lower prices.

      Oh, and that 75 million is just the initial order. I still expect Apple to need around 120 M of the new models over this model year, regardless of what is happening with Huawei.

      https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/23/tech/washington-post-huawei-north-korea/index.html

      This is potentially very damaging to Huawei, and may be yet another cause to maintain the restrictions on sales of U.S. origin components to Huawei.

      "Last month, the US president said he would ease some restrictions on Huawei, saying he would allow American firms to resume sales to Huawei of products that don't pose a security threat.
      Following the Post report, Republican and Democratic lawmakers renewed demands for a tougher stance on Huawei. 
        Democratic Sen. Chris Van Hollen and Republican Sen. Tom Cotton urged Trump to impose orders banning the export of US parts and components to Chinese telecommunications companies like Huawei that violate US export control or sanctions laws.
        The United States needs to make it clear "that any company that does business with North Korea — like Huawei reportedly did — will face American sanctions," the senators said in a statement."
        Second post and you're already bringing politics in?

        'For me' means 'in my opinion'. No idea where you got the 'I hate iOS' from.

        Still, I will repeat: 75 million is pretty good all things considered. That was the key takeaway.
        Do you not believe that Huawei is as well benefitted by the same politics, only from the Chinese POV? 

        Huawei is being used as a political football, true, but it's not like they haven't earned the situation that they are in.
        But why bring that aspect into this story?

        It's about sales projections based on the supply chain. There is a high level reference to the general political situation too (the trade war in general) referencing manufacturing options.

        Competition obviously has a constant influence on sales projections, as does the feature spread of the phones and the final prices but to insert your North Korea claims  in here is pretty way off base.
        I'll post another, more general "political" link;

        https://time.com/5633390/fbi-christopher-wray-china-counterintelligence/

        "Wray said Chinese companies aren’t independent of the Chinese Communist Party, and that the country uses both legal and illegal means including hacking, getting information from Chinese graduate students at American universities and partnerships with American companies.

        He said some major universities have essentially created a “pipeline” of intellectual property heading back to China."

        watto_cobra
      • Apple expects 'iPhone 11' sales to match 2018 iPhone XS sales figures

        MplsP said:
        This report is probably about as accurate as any of the others and is pretty typical. Apple (and pretty much all manufacturers) are typically quiet about such numbers, leading people to try and glean information from supply chain info, etc. 

        I suspect Avon was right. With any given hardware release, there is a certain amount of 'guaranteed' initial sales - hardware reviewers, people who upgrade every year, etc. The real question is the number of sustained sales. Depending what the features are, those could well continue to be lackluster, for the same reasons smartphone sales have been rather cool in general the last couple of years. 5G anticipation could keep things down a bit, too. Of course, that's making plans based on rumors based on promises of an un-proven technology with extremely limited availability. But hey, that's what people do, right?

        "I've already read many investor notes on this subject and yes, iPhone sales will remain static in the 190-210 million range annually for the foreseeable future. But the upside for services as a large revenue contributor continues to get missed by most analysts."

        https://twitter.com/BenBajarin

        He has a pretty good track record on Apple.
        Bart Ywatto_cobra