tmay

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tmay
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  • Editorial: No, Apple isn't in a post-iPhone era, and won't be anytime soon

    avon b7 said:
    iPhone is a massive success.
    Analysts: Apple is a one-trick pony! They need other products with great revenue stream!

    Other products and service are growing massively up to 50%.
    Analysts: Apple is doomed!

    If we were really in a post-iPhone era Apple would not be releasing new services for iPhone.

    zoetmb said:
    The iPhone being less than 50% of Apple's business isn't a bad thing, it's a positive.   Too much dependency on a single product line is a bad business strategy.   Apple's income being more diverse is a strong positive and the fact that it's more split between hardware and services is even greater positive as it protects Apple against downturns in the economy and if any strong competitors appear.   

    How many articles were there in recent years stating that Apple was no longer a computer company, but an "iPhone" company.   That was a weakness, not a strength.  

    I'm certainly no genius, but even I can see that a more diverse Apple business is better for Apple and for Apple's customers.  Mac revenue is up 5% year over year, and that's is a great thing, because Mac was becoming such a small part of Apple, I had concerns over how much attention Apple would give it going forward.  iPad is up 15.5%, Services are up 15.9% and Wearables/Home Accessories is up an outstanding 36.5%.   Considering the world economy is not in great shape and that Chinese consumers seem to be spending less across the board, I think Apple is doing great in spite of the fact that they won't beat last fiscal's record revenue and earnings.   Not every year can be a record year. 

    And while iPhone revenue was less than 50% in Q3, it's still 61.7% fiscal year-to-date, so this is much ado about nothing. 
    Still Apple’s services and accessories mostly depend on owning other Apple hardware. For me the tell of Apple becoming a completely different company is if they ever make iMessage cross platform. 

    zoetmb said:
    The iPhone being less than 50% of Apple's business isn't a bad thing, it's a positive.   Too much dependency on a single product line is a bad business strategy.   Apple's income being more diverse is a strong positive and the fact that it's more split between hardware and services is even greater positive as it protects Apple against downturns in the economy and if any strong competitors appear.   

    How many articles were there in recent years stating that Apple was no longer a computer company, but an "iPhone" company.   That was a weakness, not a strength.  

    I'm certainly no genius, but even I can see that a more diverse Apple business is better for Apple and for Apple's customers.  Mac revenue is up 5% year over year, and that's is a great thing, because Mac was becoming such a small part of Apple, I had concerns over how much attention Apple would give it going forward.  iPad is up 15.5%, Services are up 15.9% and Wearables/Home Accessories is up an outstanding 36.5%.   Considering the world economy is not in great shape and that Chinese consumers seem to be spending less across the board, I think Apple is doing great in spite of the fact that they won't beat last fiscal's record revenue and earnings.   Not every year can be a record year. 

    And while iPhone revenue was less than 50% in Q3, it's still 61.7% fiscal year-to-date, so this is much ado about nothing. 
    Still Apple’s services and accessories mostly depend on owning other Apple hardware. For me the tell of Apple becoming a completely different company is if they ever make iMessage cross platform. 
    Why, what sort of revenue would a free chat app on Android create? How is that more healthy for their earnings? 

    Nah. Of course Apple profit is dependent on selling Apple products. That's the whole point. Services are nice but what you're saying is Apple should back away from its immensely successful model of selling premium hardware and become a services-oriented company. Why? That's one viable model, but why on earth would they want to stop doing what they do best? Services augment their already healthy business. It doesn't replace it.

    iMessage and Facetime for Android is a GREAT idea if, Apple charges a monthly fee. Which may or may not be what Rogifan suggested.

    Almost everyone agrees iMessage is the superior texting app. At $1.99 for both Facetime and iMessage Apple could monetize users of stolen IP while allowing Apple users to have access. This not only makes Apple products even more attractive but like I said allows Apple to monetize knockoffs. I can EASILY see iMessage/Facetime on android surpassing WhatsApp and Skype or whatever crap they use.

    They're "cool" you get to finally be a blue bubble and get secure Facetime with group calling with all your Apple friends for just 1.99 a month.
    So you suggest Apple makes Facetime and iMessage a paid service for macOS and iOS users in order to expand to Android. Even if not, your Android friends will not pay 1.99/month to chat with you dear Apple friend. They already pay for SMS to telcos, since there will be two subscriptions iMessage must be split in two separate apps for SMS and iCloud (iMessage). Since this is not possible iMessage will include only iCloud messages, not SMS and as such it will not be as functional as on iOS. A paid iMessage app on Android has no chance to survive among free apps like Viber, WhatsApp, Messenger and a multitude of others.

    NO, NO, NO.

    Why would Apple charge their users for a service that was free?
    Because the only Apple service we saw on Android is a paid one: Apple Music. Your suggestion may create deep-spaghetti legal issues stemming from anti-trust law.

    I've thought of that but Facetime especially costs Apple a lot of money to operate and Apple operates these services without data mining and ads.

    Worst that can happen is Apple pull the App from android.





    It's possible but the government may claim it's unfair that Apple charges for competing knockoffs to pay for their hard work. Then again, no one forces you to pay when you have free apps like WhatsApp.
    You won't find anyone itching for Messages on Android. WhatsApp is Messages for Android. In fact, for many iOS users it is also the default instant messaging app. I do not know any iOS users that even use it, even occasionally. My wife only uses WhatsApp on her iPhone XR.

    And after WhatsApp comes Telegram.
    Well, for starters, millions of teenage girls in the U.S. certainly would be keen for Messages on Android, so, your anecdotal evidence isn't universal, making your statement "you won't find anyone itching for Messages on Android" absolutely false, and quite typical of you.
    watto_cobra
  • Editorial: No, Apple isn't in a post-iPhone era, and won't be anytime soon

    avon b7 said:
    When Apple dropped 'computer' from the name the logic was 'we are not only a computer company'.

    Post iPhone (whether we are there already or approaching that point) only means that the dependency on iPhone as the biggest revenue driver has passed. Not unlike when they dropped computer from the name and became a 'phone' company.

    There is no connection to the company being doomed.

    One of the takeaways from the call was that tethering services to iPhone wasn't a goal unto itself.

    The Mac, as much as I dislike the direction of the last few years, is driving far more revenues now, as a bit player within the company (when compared to the phone business) than ever before. If they were to spin the company off it would be a mega corporation.

    iPhone will probably end up in a similar situation at some point (unless there are major changes in the phone business model) and non-iPhone tethered services might become the bread and butter earner.

    Then there are the big unknowns, like cars etc and areas that might seem unthinkable now, like Apple licencing its hardware to third parties. 


    And yet, for all that, Apple's iPhone user base keeps growing, even in China, and is expected to pass 1 billion users WW by no later than Q1 2020, countering the marketshare meme of a few posters here, including yourself.



    AppleExposedlolliverwatto_cobra
  • Apple expects 'iPhone 11' sales to match 2018 iPhone XS sales figures

    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    I thought Apple was still making over 90% of mobile revenue? Wait, I think "mobile" includes iPad. Do we have any recent figures.
    No recent figures that I have seen, but I haven't specifically looked either. Still, Apple is providing revenues and margins for the iPhone that easily eclipse the two volume leaders.

    When a recession hits, I'm convinced that we will see a further consolidation of Android OS device makers, and some exiting the market entirely. Apple will be fine, needless to say.



    Consolidation is already underway although Android device consolidation might not help Apple that much, especially as the two Android beneficiaries would see even more economies of scale on already vast portfolios. 
    ...and Apple will still be making the bulk of the profits with a mere three current models. Perhaps Apple has a better understanding of the benefits of economies of scale than Huawei.
    watto_cobra
  • Apple expects 'iPhone 11' sales to match 2018 iPhone XS sales figures

    I thought Apple was still making over 90% of mobile revenue? Wait, I think "mobile" includes iPad. Do we have any recent figures.
    No recent figures that I have seen, but I haven't specifically looked either. Still, Apple is providing revenues and margins for the iPhone that easily eclipse the two volume leaders.

    When a recession hits, I'm convinced that we will see a further consolidation of Android OS device makers, and some exiting the market entirely. Apple will be fine, needless to say.



    watto_cobra
  • Apple expects 'iPhone 11' sales to match 2018 iPhone XS sales figures

    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    All things considered, 75 million is pretty good.

    A major redesign and 5G for 2020 will possibly act as a double whammy against the 2019 refresh.

    There might even be a triple whammy if prices don't come down as those 2017 iPhone X purchasers who might be interested in upgrading this year (and have the money to do so) could eventually decide to wait until next year and squeeze even more out of their existing phone and the maximum possible out of the 2020 phone.

    On top of that, I saw a (possibly dodgy) article yesterday about Apple's difficulties in China:

    https://technode.com/2019/07/24/chinese-iphone-users-are-increasingly-opting-for-huawei-report/

    For me though, price remains the number one drawback.
    "For me though, price remains the number one drawback",

    Funny, I thought you hated iOS, so maybe you aren't telling the full story. Seems like you have an agenda to push lower prices.

    Oh, and that 75 million is just the initial order. I still expect Apple to need around 120 M of the new models over this model year, regardless of what is happening with Huawei.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/23/tech/washington-post-huawei-north-korea/index.html

    This is potentially very damaging to Huawei, and may be yet another cause to maintain the restrictions on sales of U.S. origin components to Huawei.

    "Last month, the US president said he would ease some restrictions on Huawei, saying he would allow American firms to resume sales to Huawei of products that don't pose a security threat.
    Following the Post report, Republican and Democratic lawmakers renewed demands for a tougher stance on Huawei. 
      Democratic Sen. Chris Van Hollen and Republican Sen. Tom Cotton urged Trump to impose orders banning the export of US parts and components to Chinese telecommunications companies like Huawei that violate US export control or sanctions laws.
      The United States needs to make it clear "that any company that does business with North Korea — like Huawei reportedly did — will face American sanctions," the senators said in a statement."
      Second post and you're already bringing politics in?

      'For me' means 'in my opinion'. No idea where you got the 'I hate iOS' from.

      Still, I will repeat: 75 million is pretty good all things considered. That was the key takeaway.
      Do you not believe that Huawei is as well benefitted by the same politics, only from the Chinese POV? 

      Huawei is being used as a political football, true, but it's not like they haven't earned the situation that they are in.
      But why bring that aspect into this story?

      It's about sales projections based on the supply chain. There is a high level reference to the general political situation too (the trade war in general) referencing manufacturing options.

      Competition obviously has a constant influence on sales projections, as does the feature spread of the phones and the final prices but to insert your North Korea claims  in here is pretty way off base.
      I'll post another, more general "political" link;

      https://time.com/5633390/fbi-christopher-wray-china-counterintelligence/

      "Wray said Chinese companies aren’t independent of the Chinese Communist Party, and that the country uses both legal and illegal means including hacking, getting information from Chinese graduate students at American universities and partnerships with American companies.

      He said some major universities have essentially created a “pipeline” of intellectual property heading back to China."

      Why insist? It's still irrelevant to the thread. 

      Tell me if you think the so called 'peak iPhone' has come and gone or if there is still room for a big shift upwards. Are these supposed iPhone goals conservative or unreasonably high? Tell me if you think prices will be adjusted downwards this September? Tell me if Samsung and Huawei have kept iPhone sales from increasing? Tell me if you think the lack of 5G will have a negative impact on sales. Tell me if you think potential upgraders with enough disposable income (especially iPhone X users on a two year cycle) could skip the 2019 phones. Tell me if you think those who struggle to reach iPhone price points and have little option but to go for older models, resent the fact that they don't have access to 'new' iPhones with their corresponding new designs.

      If want to unnecessarily plunk politics somewhere, better in an appropriate thread. I'll be the first to admit that Trump, China and Huawei are all tangled up and sometimes it isn't possible to avoid touching on the political side but I can't see much justification in this particular thread.
      ASP has relevance to your questions, as much as you are in denial of that.

      Whether Apple lowers its margins or creates a lower entry price point, I can't know, and I doubt that lack of 5G will lower sales this year below 180 Million, but if it does, one would expect a commensurate increase next year. I have stated that I expect 120 million of the new model in sales for next year, starting this September, based on the data I have seen for past model sales breakdown, ie, about 2/3 of iPhone unit sales are the current years models.

      Apple's iPhone user base continues to grow, and while Samsung and Huawei sell more phones, they do so at a at much lower ASP, and Apple continues to generate much more revenue and profit from its iPhone lineup than all of the Android OS devices makers combined. Sure, it isn't in the 90% range, like it was in the past, but for a mature product line, I'm not seeing any crisis from Apple not competing in the mid and low range. 

      As for the politics, I am just pointing out that Huawei isn't likely to get the reprieve from Trump and the U.S. Government that you seem to be expecting, and I have not problem seeing this as relevant to the story.
      watto_cobra